Make a list of these underdogs:

spottie2935

spottie2935

Read Lines, Not Books
These underdogs must be able to score 21+ points in their game.
We need to bet on good offenses and or bet against bad defenses.

Dogs must be +2 or more later in the week incase of short lined dogs becoming favorites



Dog lines <+13

NW +12

Charlotte +7.5

New Mx St. +9.5

Wyoming +10.5

Hawaii +6.5

WV +7

Purdue +3

Illinois +5

Old Dom +7.5

Temple +7

Colorado +11

Florida +2.5

S.Florida +11

Syracuse +3.5

Rutgers +7

Mid Tenn +7

Army +3

Georgia St. +12.5

N. Tx +10

Ohio +3

E. Car +10

Wyom +2.5

Boise +3.5

Ariz +6.5

Tx St +6

S. Miss +3.5

Cin+7

UTSA +5

Hawaii +11.5

FSU +3
 
Many times when im not quite sure on the dog but lean that way and think they can score I end up playing over opposed to the side.
 
2daBank said:
I like Nw but I don’t think scoring points is really their path to a cover, they gonna have to limit corn offense to stay in it imo.
Click to expand...
I agree with you. I listed all possible teams not my personal opinions.

Make your own list of possible dog teams that score 14+ 21+. If one does this I bet they do vey well.
 
spottie2935 said:
I agree with you. I listed all possible teams not my personal opinions.

Make your own list of possible dog teams that score 14+ 21+. If one does this I bet they do vey well.
Click to expand...

Oh it a real interesting list/concept, appreciate you posting it. Just saying I like NW but not sure they gonna get us 21+, lol.
 
2daBank said:
I dunno they can’t score, 17-20 might not be unreasonable. W a 50 total I think that prob gets the cash.
Click to expand...
If NEB is a small dog of 4 or less or laying any amount of points. They must score 28 or more points to get the cover.

If they dont score 28 points their ATS record is 30-85 ATS

If they score 29+ points ATS is 136-69
 
Week =1 and any Thursday game the unders rule.

Overs 150, unders 252 over 39.2%


Why ? my opinion is these games do not have the best teams playing.
 
spottie2935 said:
If NEB is a small dog of 4 or less or laying any amount of points. They must score 28 or more points to get the cover.

If they dont score 28 points their ATS record is 30-85 ATS

If they score 29+ points ATS is 136-69
Click to expand...

Damn. Feel like I did pretty well on them as dogs last year but I can’t recall at all how many points they scored! Lol. Think they covered vs Ou not scoring that much. My memory so shot, lol.
 
spottie2935 said:
Week =1 and any Thursday game the unders rule.

Overs 150, unders 252 over 39.2%


Why ? my opinion is these games do not have the best teams playing.
Click to expand...

I just think in general defenses are typically ahead of offenses also. Could be changing w the times but def think offenses usually take more time as it little more intricate than just running around and making plays on the ball like the d.
 
KJ said:
Think this is more about an entire season exercise, not one game. And it makes sense.
Click to expand...
This is a fact. I am only talking about week 1 because the lines are present. The bottom line to all of this is stick to teams that play great offense that are small dogs on the road and they can score points. Offense rules for road teams.

Just the opposite for home teams. Home teams that play D are awesome, playing a team that has a hard time maintaining drives.
 
2daBank said:
I just think in general defenses are typically ahead of offenses also. Could be changing w the times but def think offenses usually take more time as it little more intricate than just running around and making plays on the ball like the d.
Click to expand...
under dominate early its a fact. a few unders early then the book lowers the line and the teams get better. those are good valued overs
 
spottie2935 said:
This is a fact. I am only talking about week 1 because the lines are present. The bottom line to all of this is stick to teams that play great offense that are small dogs on the road and they can score points. Offense rules for road teams.

Just the opposite for home teams. Home teams that play D are awesome, playing a team that has a hard time maintaining drives.
Click to expand...

That crazy cause I’ve always been of the opinion defense travels. But again, times have def changed.
 
2daBank said:
That crazy cause I’ve always been of the opinion defense travels. But again, times have def changed.
Click to expand...
The key to covers on the road is scoring. They have to score to keep it close and or win. The lines are also important. I dont want too many 17 point lines they cant win often enough
 
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spottie2935 said:
under dominate early its a fact. a few unders early then the book lowers the line and the teams get better. those are good valued overs
Click to expand...

I’ve always been more a under player anyways, I do play college overs way more than nfl but for most part I feel way more comfy picking out lower scoring games, dunno why but it always been that way for me. I took a beating for bout a year and a half 5-6 years ago when scoring started going crazy, had to adjust and start playing some overs.
 
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I am an under guy also but if i play they must have beaten the total a few times in a row before i get interested
also I like when they play a conference game against a team that plays hard defense and or doesnt have a strong QB. 2 overs in a row against a weaker scoring team.
 
If you are a road dog and can score, it only makes sense that you can cover and possibly win outright. Defense can feed off of the crowd. On the flip side, the crowd can't complete a pass whether you're at home or on the road.
 
A few of these games I will give as examples.

Army +3 a bit risky but if they play an Army type of game they can win

Boise St. Historically an offensive team. If they play a Boise game this has a good chance.

West Virginia +7 Did Pitt get another top QB? Can they score 28+ ?

Georgia St.+12.5 S.Carolina has a big conference game on deck.
 
spottie2935 said:
A few of these games I will give as examples.

Army +3 a bit risky but if they play an Army type of game they can win

Boise St. Historically an offensive team. If they play a Boise game this has a good chance.

West Virginia +7 Did Pitt get another top QB? Can they score 28+ ?

Georgia St.+12.5 S.Carolina has a big conference game on deck.
Click to expand...

I dunno what pitt has at qb now but his top target got poached by usc also!
 
Also skip taking dogs against the top 15 or so ranked teams. It easy to think these teams are far less random and face top scoring teams or the best defenses. Most are located there, Fading the 16 thru 25 rank teams as favorites against teams that can score is a much better idea. The bottom ranked teams have much more volatility. Be selective.
 
rank=None and HF and line>-13 and o/points>14

In this situation its a non ranked matchup with an under 2 TD line in which our dog scores 15 or more points.
the Favorites are
ATS:1602-3074-113 ( 34.3%)
 
Home dogs have to play defense. Home dogs are playing the better team on paper. They have to control the ball a limit opportunities.

HD and line<13 and o/points <35

Home dogs that limit the other team to less than 35 points with a line of <13 points

how or what helps this happen? A solid Defense and ground and pound offense.

ATS:2428-1381-75 (63.7%)

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com
 
These also could be considered correlated parlays and profitable that way as well. The key is be selective and make sure this dog is going to score. One has a big advantage to hit dog and over.
 
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spottie2935 said:
its very possible they fail.
Click to expand...

So pitt brought in the former usc qb Slovis, gotta think that won’t be a huge fall off. Wvu overhauled their offense also w new oc and different former Trojan qb jt Daniels. Think this a massive upgrade for wvu. I know we talking unders here but 51 for this game could be low, feel like both these teams could easily get into mid 20s so that certainly supports wvu w the points also.

Pitt always has a strong front 7 but their secondary continues to be a weakness it sounds like to me and think wvu has the pieces to exploit that and a good enough oline to give them time to beat them.
 
When a non ranked team is a dog of less than 10 points and also the line is +2 or more, playing a a ranked team (13 ranked or more) in weeks before week 3.



rank = None and D and line < 10 and line>=2 and o:rank > 13 and week<3



the dog is 34-17 ATS,

if this is a conference game the trend becomes 11-2 ATS

qualified team is W.Virginia.
 
2daBank said:
So pitt brought in the former usc qb Slovis, gotta think that won’t be a huge fall off. Wvu overhauled their offense also w new oc and different former Trojan qb jt Daniels. Think this a massive upgrade for wvu. I know we talking unders here but 51 for this game could be low, feel like both these teams could easily get into mid 20s so that certainly supports wvu w the points also.

Pitt always has a strong front 7 but their secondary continues to be a weakness it sounds like to me and think wvu has the pieces to exploit that and a good enough oline to give them time to beat them.
Click to expand...
Nothing says backyard brawl like two USC castaways
 
MICH is 9-19 ATS last 28 when laying <-24 and not as many as -39

Mich also covered the last 2 in this situation. So they keep the streak going or regress to the norm and fail. I trust that the line is too high.





Colorado State is 7-0 ATS (last 7 games) 12-5 ATS all time when playing a top 20 ranked team.
 
KJ said:
Nothing says backyard brawl like two USC castaways
Click to expand...

Somebody in the week 0-1 thread said it best, “nothing says college football 2022 like it”, so true!!

My head been spinning the last few days trying to learn what players all these teams stocked up w from different programs!! Not only all the movement but with the covid shit and everyone getting extra years we got 25 year olds on their 3rd college team that been around forever!! Shit nuts. Wvu former qb doege (who im so glad isn’t their qb anymore cause he annoyed me) is now at wku, who knows what it gonna look like w him running that offense? He might end up throwing for 5k yards all a sudden!
 
spottie2935 said:
When a non ranked team is a dog of less than 10 points and also the line is +2 or more, playing a a ranked team (13 ranked or more) in weeks before week 3.



rank = None and D and line < 10 and line>=2 and o:rank > 13 and week<3



the dog is 34-17 ATS,

if this is a conference game the trend becomes 11-2 ATS

qualified team is W.Virginia.
Click to expand...

Don't like seeing that trend. I'm on Pitt, and think WVU won't be able to move the ball at all against their front 7. Pitt's secondary is their potential weakness, of course, but it'll be much improved from last year. Comes down to whether Daniels can exploit that or not, and if he'll have the time.


Anyhow, that's not why i'm writing this. Can you please run USF?
BYU has a helluva solid team, and just about everything I use points to them covering the number. That said, they have huge games against Baylor and Oregon the next two weeks...so my gut keeps telling me to look more at USF. Mid 90s in Tampa with 60%+ humidity on Saturday...1pm game, so all 4 quarters will be steamy AF on the Mormons. South Florida returns a lot of both sides of the ball. Sure, they're outclassed by BYU on paper, but situationally BYU has gotta be looking ahead a bit...wanting to come out of this game with a W of course, but also healthy and ready for the next two games.
Last year they covered the spread at BYU. Will they do it again this year at home? I'm thinking it looks promising... So what do the trends say???
 
My plays are based upon some of the teams that I am well aware of, or fit certain angles. This game is neither for me. In my eyes that mean its more random. Because I dont watch USF or BYU.

Personally One thing I do like about this game is I like to fade BYU. Why? because after the Stud QB departed BYU they were far less consistent covering spreads. BYU killed it in 2020 but in 2019 and 2021 they didn't beak .500 ATS. In fact BYU in 2019 and 2021 combined ATS record 9-17ATS, better yet combined BYU in those 2 seasons were 3-14 ATS as Favorites. Including 1-9 ATS as Away favorites.

I know very little about BYU but the data says to me unless they have a superior stud QB or someone that can carry the ball and be highly successful as a whole the team is overrated according to the ATS data. Again I could be wrong because I dont watch them but the data is clear fade or pass on BYU.

SFL :
is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home dog chances 4 of those games were lines +13 or more points. I also by memory imit some of the SFL data because a few seasons back they were a horrible team. As a home dog SFL (before the latest 5 ATS win streak were 11-20 as home dogs) and them being double digit home dogs doesn't get me excited to play on them.

In 2019 they did beat BYU at home as a 4 point dog, thats interesting and this line is +11

The week 2 look ahead line is BYU -1.5 against Baylor. That line could flip and for that reason I dont include small lines in my database. I am looking for look ahead lines that are stable dogs or favorites. If the lines switch my data is skewed. If BYU stomps SFL this week that line could be BYU -3 against Baylor in week 2 and could create a nice Baylor dog play.

Some of what I look for is here and I think this sort of addresses your question :

AF and n:line >=-3 and n:H and week<3

(which means a week 1 away favorite that plays week 2 with a week 2 line of small favorite of -3 to -1 or a week 2 underdog, the week 2 game is also a home game. These away favorites are 41-57ATS)

Since BYU will be a dog in their 3rd game it does make this week 1 situation better for the home dog SFL Bulls.

What makes the home dog Bulls weaker is that they wont be favorites until their 4th game. Stronger teams dont have so many dog lines in a row. I like when my dog team is a favorite the following week or even better when my dog team is a favorite 2 consecutive weeks after being dogs.

Are you able to watch this game and bet while its in play. If I were interested here I would wait until some point when SFL had a bigger line. Maybe SFL wins this game again but the higher line say to me SFL has less of a chance to win. also as you said the longer this goes you can see how much the BYU defense has played. Are they tired does SFL have a better chance to score the later in the game goes. How many points does SFL have after halftime. more points better chances to get the money .

in game betting higher ROI I think.
 
Last edited:
Boise State+3.5 @ Oregon State this week
Boise week 2 @ New Mexico
Boise week 3 Home to Tennessee Martin
Boise week 4 @ Utep
These next 3 games on paper make Boise week one line valuable.

AD and n:F and nn:F and nnn:F and season>2011 and week<7

Away dogs that will be favorites the next 3 week in a game played before week 7 including seasons 2011 to current.

ATS:178-104-7 (63.1%) ATS



Also if Boise can score more than 21 points (Which is possible) this data query becomes:

ATS:125-26-4 ( 82.8%) ATS
 
spottie2935 said:
A few of these games I will give as examples.

Army +3 a bit risky but if they play an Army type of game they can win

Boise St. Historically an offensive team. If they play a Boise game this has a good chance.

West Virginia +7 Did Pitt get another top QB? Can they score 28+ ?

Georgia St.+12.5 S.Carolina has a big conference game on deck.
Click to expand...

I don't think Pitt will score over 28.

Georgia State at South Carolina is a very fascinating game. You have what Georgia State almost did at Auburn last year, you have Georgia State head coach returning to South Carolina (former interim HC for Spurrier), you have the transfers coming into SC. I would say, generally, I am a little bullish on South Carolina this year. But consider they should've lost at home to Vanderbilt, they really should've. And Rattler has at times been scatter brained at OU.
 
s--k said:
I don't think Pitt will score over 28.

Georgia State at South Carolina is a very fascinating game. You have what Georgia State almost did at Auburn last year, you have Georgia State head coach returning to South Carolina (former interim HC for Spurrier), you have the transfers coming into SC. I would say, generally, I am a little bullish on South Carolina this year. But consider they should've lost at home to Vanderbilt, they really should've. And Rattler has at times been scatter brained at OU.
Click to expand...
I would like to make a request that the "cocks " not cover this game so that sneaking up on their opponents become higher lines and better bets going forward. Cover this game as a chalk and that gig is exposed.
 
spottie2935 said:
My plays are based upon some of the teams that I am well aware of, or fit certain angles. This game is neither for me. In my eyes that mean its more random. Because I dont watch USF or BYU.

Personally One thing I do like about this game is I like to fade BYU. Why? because after the Stud QB departed BYU they were far less consistent covering spreads. BYU killed it in 2020 but in 2019 and 2021 they didn't beak .500 ATS. In fact BYU in 2019 and 2021 combined ATS record 9-17ATS, better yet combined BYU in those 2 seasons were 3-14 ATS as Favorites. Including 1-9 ATS as Away favorites.

I know very little about BYU but the data says to me unless they have a superior stud QB or someone that can carry the ball and be highly successful as a whole the team is overrated according to the ATS data. Again I could be wrong because I dont watch them but the data is clear fade or pass on BYU.

SFL :
is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home dog chances 4 of those games were lines +13 or more points. I also by memory imit some of the SFL data because a few seasons back they were a horrible team. As a home dog SFL (before the latest 5 ATS win streak were 11-20 as home dogs) and them being double digit home dogs doesn't get me excited to play on them.

In 2019 they did beat BYU at home as a 4 point dog, thats interesting and this line is +11

The week 2 look ahead line is BYU -1.5 against Baylor. That line could flip and for that reason I dont include small lines in my database. I am looking for look ahead lines that are stable dogs or favorites. If the lines switch my data is skewed. If BYU stomps SFL this week that line could be BYU -3 against Baylor in week 2 and could create a nice Baylor dog play.

Some of what I look for is here and I think this sort of addresses your question :

AF and n:line >=-3 and n:H and week<3

(which means a week 1 away favorite that plays week 2 with a week 2 line of small favorite of -3 to -1 or a week 2 underdog, the week 2 game is also a home game. These away favorites are 41-57ATS)

Since BYU will be a dog in their 3rd game it does make this week 1 situation better for the home dog SFL Bulls.

What makes the home dog Bulls weaker is that they wont be favorites until their 4th game. Stronger teams dont have so many dog lines in a row. I like when my dog team is a favorite the following week or even better when my dog team is a favorite 2 consecutive weeks after being dogs.

Are you able to watch this game and bet while its in play. If I were interested here I would wait until some point when SFL had a bigger line. Maybe SFL wins this game again but the higher line say to me SFL has less of a chance to win. also as you said the longer this goes you can see how much the BYU defense has played. Are they tired does SFL have a better chance to score the later in the game goes. How many points does SFL have after halftime. more points better chances to get the money .

in game betting higher ROI I think.
Click to expand...

thanks for your thoughts on this one
 
2daBank said:
Somebody in the week 0-1 thread said it best, “nothing says college football 2022 like it”, so true!!

My head been spinning the last few days trying to learn what players all these teams stocked up w from different programs!! Not only all the movement but with the covid shit and everyone getting extra years we got 25 year olds on their 3rd college team that been around forever!! Shit nuts. Wvu former qb doege (who im so glad isn’t their qb anymore cause he annoyed me) is now at wku, who knows what it gonna look like w him running that offense? He might end up throwing for 5k yards all a sudden!
Click to expand...

MW said that, and it's absolutely true. It's going to take some time to see how all this stuff plays out. Just a ton of relevant player movement to decipher.
 
s--k said:
I don't think Pitt will score over 28.

Georgia State at South Carolina is a very fascinating game. You have what Georgia State almost did at Auburn last year, you have Georgia State head coach returning to South Carolina (former interim HC for Spurrier), you have the transfers coming into SC. I would say, generally, I am a little bullish on South Carolina this year. But consider they should've lost at home to Vanderbilt, they really should've. And Rattler has at times been scatter brained at OU.
Click to expand...

I have both teams in the wvu/pitt game scoring 24ish, don’t think it be totally crazy if pitt got to 27-31. I know we talking bout unders being the plays in these 1st weeks of season but I really lean over 51 on this one. Pitt front 7 is always pretty nasty but their secondary always seems to be incredibly beatable when the opposing qb has time to throw which is the key. I think wvu oline gonna be good enough to allow their qb time to throw and I like the weapons on outside and the new scheme wvu will be running with graham Harrell as the oc. Of course both teams not only have new trigger men at qb but both have new OC’s also so there at least a decent chance it takes them time for the offenses to click. Not sure if I’ll actually play the over or just roll with wvu and the points?? I like both plays.

I havnt looked into the g-st/ scary game yet, scary certainly seems to be everyone’s darlings this year so I wonder if we wait we see that line get bet up to -14?
 
Army +3 vs. CSTL

CSTL has lost 9 starters on D Still will have solid production at RB but have taken a hit at WR and TE a lot of production lost. CSTL has made a name for itself recently and recruited well so maybe they can fill the holes.

The problem for CSTL they have very little success in the PAST as favorites. Dont get me wrong when they play the worst teams they have done very well. The problem is this...

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

3-11 ATS when favorites of greater than 16 points.

When they play teams that can play they struggle to get the job done.

Covering spreads as favorites is all about limited the other teams points. Sure we are talking about Army here but losing 9 starters on D. Losing all the experience WR's and RB's. Some big plays will be there for CSTL, but all game ? They have not shown the ability to win and cover these lines.

Army is Army they lost the QB and top rusher but still have their next 5 leading rushers returning. Strong QB play in the past has taken them to a better level, but its Army and they run! With CSTL being so inexperienced they are a times going to lost maintain on D. That should keep Army in this. They do have a senior QB taking the position. This could be a sleeper and IMO it adds value with out seeing them play. Surely the books dont know either.

At only a +3 line Army is going to need to get a lead and if they do, keep rushing and expose CSTL until CSTL can adjust and slow them down.


Army has lost a key player on D but still has enough experience on a team that ranks 15th last season in total defense. The leading tackler from last season also returns.


On paper CSTL has lost a big time D now and could very well be an offense only team. If thats the case and from what I have read it is. I will back Army here and trust the unseen.

I get a dog that doesnt face a strong return defense that runs the ball and the clock. Army has played some high quality teams very hard. They have a quality coach and enough to take the +3.

As I said CSTL is 3-11 ATS when a favorite of greater than -16 points and they are going to match toe to tow with one tough team that is going to give them fits.


Army +3
 

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Of this list where 1 of 2 thing are probable to happen

Wyoming +10.5 I dont feel Illinois will light up the scoreboard. The problem is Wyoming struggled to score last year. The under seems low but I dont see many points under is possible too.

Army +3

Temple +7

Boise St +3.5
 
Been listening to some podcast stuff all night covering most the ncaa off-season, think I’m somewhat down on the wvu/pitt over. Sounds like the oc change in pitt is gonna lead to pretty drastic change in philosophy where they get back to trying to run the football in more a pro style offense than the chuck and duck big plays of Pickett last year. I don’t think that helps them cover against wvu either cause I’m way higher on wvu offense headed upwards w their oc hire and Daniels replacing doege, assuming they can protect Daniels enough to keep him healthy!! Before hearing all this I felt decent about pitt scoring high 20s, maybe low 30s but think I’m more comfy expecting this to be a 24-20 kinda game now.

Lots of guys I respect seem to be laying the -7 with pitt but I honestly feel like +7 or anything more (if pitt gets more love as we get closer to the game) is the way to play this, maybe it cause I like wvu coach more than some or maybe it the fact this pitt offense doesn’t sound like one that gonna run away from teams, it prob a bit of both but I really think this game is closer than most seem to.
 
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