Make a list of these underdogs:

spottie2935 said:
Of this list where 1 of 2 thing are probable to happen

Wyoming +10.5 I dont feel Illinois will light up the scoreboard. The problem is Wyoming struggled to score last year. The under seems low but I dont see many points under is possible too.

Army +3

Temple +7

Boise St +3.5
Click to expand...

Dunno if you remember last season discussions but I was about the biggest boise basher, faded them a ton, I really don’t like their qb, he a mistake waiting to happen imo. Feel like they kinda a shell of their former glory but they still have that aura around them where the casual bettors tend to expect a certain amount of success w them. I have to go back and look at the numbers and see what they brought back on d but I feel like they wernt a very good 3rd down team on either side the ball, my memory sucks tho so I gotta make sure my perception accurate with that! Lol.

I’ve always been a bit of a beavers fan, I think they fairly well coached and bring back a lot. They def had a problem getting off the field on 3rd down tho and they have had a serious mountain west problem including getting beat by Utah st in last years bowl game, starting with boise then also having a trip to fresno could be tricky for them but I do think they will be able to move the ball on boise, and I think they have enough talent in the secondary that if they can get boise into known passing downs (which I think they can as boise oline had a terrible time opening holes for the run game last year) they could turn bachmier over a few times. I’m torn here, I’m almost positive I won’t be on boise but not saying I’m gonna lay with with beavs either.
 
Boise is a dog that will be favorites the next 3 games. These dogs play a huge role in my success.

Beav's next game will be dogs in Corvallis against USC. Big game on deck.

Boise has New Mexico, UT Martin and UTEP on deck

I am not entirely looking at the look ahead angle. I am looking at this situation and Boise qualifies (for now). Beware I will middle this if Boise is a pick-em or or laying points at kickoff.

My data is searching for favorite that will be dogs the following week. These favorites are laying points to a team that will be favorites 3 times in a row following this week. Dog teams that are favorites 3 times in a row (after this game) confirm this will be a battle and a strong chance to get it done.

Lastly this is a game with no teams in the top 25 rankings.

AD and n:F and nn:F and nnn:F and the favorites next game is a dog and o:rank=None

This data query has an ATS record of 209-106-6. Thats 68.4%

The only way I get off this game if the line moves. If the line moves to Boise minus points I will middle.

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

Oregon State was huge for them last season but have been huge failures ( 1-3 ATS last season) as favorites of greater than or equal -10 points. 3-8 ATS since 2014 and as I said 1-3 ATS Last season. Beating Washington by the hook laying only 2.5 and winning by 3, Failing to Washington State California and Utah State. They have very little success in this situation.

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com
3-8 ATS since 2013

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com
8-19 ATS since 2008

1-3 ATS last season
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
Boise is a dog that will be favorites the next 3 games. These dogs play a huge role in my success.

Beav's next game will be dogs in Corvallis against USC. Big game on deck.

Boise has New Mexico, UT Martin and UTEP on deck

I am not entirely looking at the look ahead angle. I am looking at this situation and Boise qualifies (for now). Beware I will middle this if Boise is a pick-em or or laying points at kickoff.

My data is searching for favorite that will be dogs the following week. These favorites are laying points to a team that will be favorites 3 times in a row following this week. Team that are favorites 3 times in a row confirm this will be a battle and a strong chance to get it done.

Lastly this is a game with no teams in the top 25 rankings.

AD and n:F and nn:F and nnn:F and the favorites next game is a dog and o:rank=None

This data query has an ATS record of 209-106-6. Thats 68.4%

The only way I get off this game if the line moves. If the line moves to Boise minus points I will middle.

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

Oregon State was huge for them last season but have been huge failures ( 1-3 ATS last season) as favorites of greater than or equal -10 points. 3-8 ATS since 2014 and as I said 1-3 ATS Last season. Beating Washington by the hook laying only 2.5 and winning by 3, Failing to Washington State California and Utah State. They have very little success in this situation.

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com
3-8 ATS since 2013

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com
8-19 ATS since 2008

1-3 ATS last season
Click to expand...

I honestly think the 2 mountain west teams a bigger problem for beavs than lot the pac-12 teams! Their track record against mountain west is pretty awful! That in itself is probably enough to keep me from playing them as favs (along with your stuff). I just have a serious dislike of Boise qb Bachmier!! Obviously it would help him if they got better oline play and were able to have more success rushing the ball which if I recall was incredibly difficult for them last season, they only averaged 3.1 ypc on the season, that obviously puts a lot of pressure on the qb!
 
No team will be lined based on name alone than Coastal. They are maybe a 4 win team at best.
 
2daBank said:
I honestly think the 2 mountain west teams a bigger problem for beavs than lot the pac-12 teams! Their track record against mountain west is pretty awful! That in itself is probably enough to keep me from playing them as favs (along with your stuff). I just have a serious dislike of Boise qb Bachmier!! Obviously it would help him if they got better oline play and were able to have more success rushing the ball which if I recall was incredibly difficult for them last season, they only averaged 3.1 ypc on the season, that obviously puts a lot of pressure on the qb!
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Boise is not a power house and if they win this game i think that will add value against them. As I said Boise isnt the team they were back in the day. We all know this but Ore State is big time over rated in this game and just the opposite of Boise lose here and they will be getting more points against a USC team. Enough points to back them? I will watch them play this game before I make that call.

I don mind Oregon State they play well in dog situations and it seems always surprise one or more teams. Their history isnt very strong as favorites though. I think the linesmaker plays games like chess setting the bettors up for the future games based upon perception.

Look for spots to play against Boise but it wont happen until the middle of their schedule.
 
spottie2935 said:
Boise is not a power house and if they win this game i think that will add value against them. As I said Boise isnt the team they were back in the day. We all know this but Ore State is big time over rated in this game and just the opposite of Boise lose here and they will be getting more points against a USC team. Enough points to back them? I will watch them play this game before I make that call.

I don mind Oregon State they play well in dog situations and it seems always surprise one or more teams. Their history isnt very strong as favorites though. I think the linesmaker plays games like chess setting the bettors up for the future games based upon perception.

Look for spots to play against Boise but it wont happen until the middle of their schedule.
Click to expand...

I’ve always done well backing beavs as a dog in conf play but think I’m with you on avoiding them as a fav, I’m not sure I would say laying -3.5 here is them being overrated tho? I think it a pretty fair line being played in Corvallis. I can’t see myself being involved in usc games either way early on as I’m just not sure what to expect? Gotta think the offense is gonna be pretty damn good tho!
 
2daBank said:
I’ve always done well backing beavs as a dog in conf play but think I’m with you on avoiding them as a fav, I’m not sure I would say laying -3.5 here is them being overrated tho? I think it a pretty fair line being played in Corvallis. I can’t see myself being involved in usc games either way early on as I’m just not sure what to expect? Gotta think the offense is gonna be pretty damn good tho!
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Youre right and I dont understand why they only covered 1 game as favorite last season. That game was by the hook as well. very close to 0-4.

If the the data is correct they are going fail most of the time and then play USC tough. Maybe this time its a week 1 preseason game problems.

If the Beavs lose I will take a hard look at the Beavs +points at home to USC.
 
spottie2935 said:
Youre right and I dont understand why they only covered 1 game as favorite last season. That game was by the hook as well. very close to 0-4.

If the the data is correct they are going fail most of the time and then play USC tough. Maybe this time its a week 1 preseason game problems.

If the Beavs lose I will take a hard look at the Beavs +points at home to USC.
Click to expand...

I could def see myself getting involved w the over if I expect them to have a chance to stay inside the number against usc, depending what it is obviously.
 
2daBank said:
I’ve always done well backing beavs as a dog in conf play but think I’m with you on avoiding them as a fav, I’m not sure I would say laying -3.5 here is them being overrated tho? I think it a pretty fair line being played in Corvallis. I can’t see myself being involved in usc games either way early on as I’m just not sure what to expect? Gotta think the offense is gonna be pretty damn good tho!
Click to expand...
The only reason I call them overrated is because they are so bad when they are expected to cover as favorites. Its a this week thing. Not overrated in general.
 
spottie2935 said:
do you have any strong bets in any game?
Click to expand...

Week 0, not really. I’ll prob put some beer money on NW w the points,,if I can get less than -14 in the 1st half for Utah st, the under 50 in the neveda/nmst gm, I tried to talk myself into nmst as I think fading neveda prob a good idea but not sure nmst the team I want to do it with? That bout all I got wrote down for week 0, there several I like in week 1 starting with wvu+7 thu night.
 
2daBank said:
Week 0, not really. I’ll prob put some beer money on NW w the points,,if I can get less than -14 in the 1st half for Utah st, the under 50 in the neveda/nmst gm, I tried to talk myself into nmst as I think fading neveda prob a good idea but not sure nmst the team I want to do it with? That bout all I got wrote down for week 0, there several I like in week 1 starting with wvu+7 thu night.
Click to expand...
cool
 
I’m interested in the ducks+17 against Uga but there might be a prop I play in that game opposed to the side depending if I can get a number I want.
 
spottie2935 said:
Boise is not a power house and if they win this game i think that will add value against them. As I said Boise isnt the team they were back in the day. We all know this but Ore State is big time over rated in this game and just the opposite of Boise lose here and they will be getting more points against a USC team. Enough points to back them? I will watch them play this game before I make that call.

I don mind Oregon State they play well in dog situations and it seems always surprise one or more teams. Their history isnt very strong as favorites though. I think the linesmaker plays games like chess setting the bettors up for the future games based upon perception.

Look for spots to play against Boise but it wont happen until the middle of their schedule.
Click to expand...

But the line is only 3 and they are at home. What do you think this line should be in Corvallis? 3 seems right. Pick on neutral would seem right. Boise-3 at home would seem right. These teams feel pretty even and it's lined accordingly.
 
Oregon State was huge for them last season but have been huge failures ( 1-3 ATS last season) as favorites of greater than or equal -10 points. 3-8 ATS since 2014 and as I said 1-3 ATS Last season. Beating Washington by the hook laying only 2.5 and winning by 3, Failing to Washington State California and Utah State. They have very little success in this situation.
Click to expand...

I'm not disagreeing with your philosophy, but the numbers don't seem as relevant when you are comparing their success or failure as a road fav vs a home fav.

The failures you cite are as road favorites to which I would say Oregon State is not good enough to be a road favorite.

Oregon State was 4-0 ATS at home last year as a favorite and actually 6-0 straight up at home last year.

Boise and Oregon State to me feels like a game either team could win, so taking Boise and the 3 can be a good play. However, it seems like some of the ATS support is a little off.

It might actually be more impactful to look at Boise's record as a dog. 3-0 ATS last year and 2-1 straight up in those games all of which were on the road as this game is.
 
s--k said:
I'm not disagreeing with your philosophy, but the numbers don't seem as relevant when you are comparing their success or failure as a road fav vs a home fav.

The failures you cite are as road favorites to which I would say Oregon State is not good enough to be a road favorite.

Oregon State was 4-0 ATS at home last year as a favorite and actually 6-0 straight up at home last year.

Boise and Oregon State to me feels like a game either team could win, so taking Boise and the 3 can be a good play. However, it seems like some of the ATS support is a little off.

It might actually be more impactful to look at Boise's record as a dog. 3-0 ATS last year and 2-1 straight up in those games all of which were on the road as this game is.
Click to expand...
covered one by a hook and I am sure since that line was -2.5 there would have been a +3 available so that is a push.

The other 3 were against Stanford Hawaii and Idaho:shocked:

-3 might be a fair line, but the Beavs I only Value as dogs and teams that are having bad seasons or just flat out miserable teams.
From what I see and this is only based on spread dats the Beavs on home turf are 4-9-1 ATS since 2008.

That tells me:
A) they are not good because they would have been home favorites more often.
B) They dont cover enough when they are.

I could get my but kicked on this one. I read magazine clips on both teams. I know what I am getting into on this. It all depends how it plays out. I dont like teams as favorites with little favorite favorite history, nd the little history they have is very poor.
 
I don't think it is very likely would get your butt kicked on Boise. Oregon State could win and cover, or win and not cover, or Boise could win outright. The most surprising result would be a comfortable or large Beaver win. You grab the Boise +3 and it is a sensible pick.

Oregon State has not been good. One of those getting off the mat teams, trying to build type teams so it is reasonable to question them. Will they turn a corner this year or be stuck in mediocre? That's part of the prediction process.

So yeah, your pick has substance behind it. Just some of the ATS stat angles I wasn't sure if they carried the weight being implied and there doesn't seem to be any kind of set up by linesmakers with the line in this match-up that I can see, probably just power rating math and home field.

Just offering some feedback, not trying to say you are wrong in the pick.
 
s--k said:
I don't think it is very likely would get your butt kicked on Boise. Oregon State could win and cover, or win and not cover, or Boise could win outright. The most surprising result would be a comfortable or large Beaver win. You grab the Boise +3 and it is a sensible pick.

Oregon State has not been good. One of those getting off the mat teams, trying to build type teams so it is reasonable to question them. Will they turn a corner this year or be stuck in mediocre? That's part of the prediction process.

So yeah, your pick has substance behind it. Just some of the ATS stat angles I wasn't sure if they carried the weight being implied and there doesn't seem to be any kind of set up by linesmakers with the line in this match-up that I can see, probably just power rating math and home field.

Just offering some feedback, not trying to say you are wrong in the pick.
Click to expand...

Def agree a beavers ass kickinv prob one the most unlikely results. And I don’t like boise. (Overall, don’t have a strong opinion either way in this game).
 
s--k said:
I don't think it is very likely would get your butt kicked on Boise. Oregon State could win and cover, or win and not cover, or Boise could win outright. The most surprising result would be a comfortable or large Beaver win. You grab the Boise +3 and it is a sensible pick.

Oregon State has not been good. One of those getting off the mat teams, trying to build type teams so it is reasonable to question them. Will they turn a corner this year or be stuck in mediocre? That's part of the prediction process.

So yeah, your pick has substance behind it. Just some of the ATS stat angles I wasn't sure if they carried the weight being implied and there doesn't seem to be any kind of set up by linesmakers with the line in this match-up that I can see, probably just power rating math and home field.

Just offering some feedback, not trying to say you are wrong in the pick.
Click to expand...
you made my point. a favorite can not be a get off the mat. My research tries to expose these teams. Both the good team dog and the i dont belong here favorite.
 
Dog lines <+13

NW +12 Winner

Charlotte +7.5 no play didnt score 21

New Mx St. +9.5 no play didnt score 21

Wyoming +10.5 no play line closed out of range

Hawaii +6.5 no play didnt score 21
 
Hard to go wrong betting against the Cocks and a double digit line, especially on an opener. Been lots of hype from Baby Beamer this summer but the opening day result could spring one way or the other.
 
ksimpsc said:
Hard to go wrong betting against the Cocks and a double digit line, especially on an opener. Been lots of hype from Baby Beamer this summer but the opening day result could spring one way or the other.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I like these teams getting points against like teams.
 
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