Lions vs. Jets NFL Week 15 Picks & Prediction: Jets to Win Low-Scoring Battle
Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Best Bet: Under 44 at -110 with BetOnline
Detroit's Improved Defense
Any analysis of Detroit's defense is totally worthless if it relies on season-long statistics to even the partial exclusion of more recent averages.
While the Lions, overall, rank 31st in scoring defense, this fact reflects their earlier-season struggles in which their defense lacked the same quality of coaching and personnel that it now possesses.
In their last three games, the Lions are allowing an average of 21.7 points per game.
If this were a season-long statistic, then they would rank 13thin scoring defense.
While 13thmight not seem that impressive, consider that Detroit's last three opponents rank top-10 in scoring offense while the third ranks above-average in the category.
Improved Coaching
The specific component of the Lion defense's improved coaching worth highlighting is its defensive backs coach.
Since the Lions fired Aubrey Pleasant after the team's loss to Miami, the Lions improved monumentally in pass defense.
Before last week, they held quarterbacks to the following statistic output: 57.4% completion rate, 1,223 passing yards, seven touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a 74.9 passer rating.
It's not like the Lions were simply facing bad quarterbacks, either.
Their victims included upstart Jaguar Trevor Lawrence and the high-caliber Bill Josh Allen.
While the Lions allowed a lot of passing yards last week, Viking Kirk Cousins was playing with a significant deficit, and superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson amassed 223 receiving yards alone.
The Jets will suffer for not having any receiver like Jefferson.
Jeff Okudah
Detroit also possesses young talent in its defense that has been getting better.
One player worth highlighting is cornerback Jeff Okudah.
Since his hiccup against Green Bay, he has yet to allow 30 yards in a game to the primary object of his coverage.
Most recently, he held Viking Adam Thielen to 29 yards, Jaguar Zay Jones to 13 yards, and Giant Darius Slayton to 17 yards.
Other Key Figures
Significantly, other key Lion defenders are healthier.
Former first-round, second pick Aidan Hutchinson had been battling injury-related issues earlier in the year.
The rising defensive end has seven sacks now, including 1.5 in his past two games combined.
Jerry Jacobs is an example of Detroit's improved health on defense.
He is healthy now and has returned to his starting role at cornerback.
Jacobs is allowing a 54.1 percent completion rate and a 73.7 passer rating when targeted.
Mike White
In view of Detroit's massively improved pass defense, does Jet quarterback Mike White stand a chance.
White is struggling to be productive: he almost has as many interceptions as touchdowns and is yielding an awful 85.8 passer rating.
He is only playing -- even while banged-up with injured ribs -- because Zach Wilson was struggling so mightily at the position.
His replacement is hardly an optimal answer: White's completion percentage when pressured in 20, and he is completing less than half of his deep balls.
With Lion pass-rushers healthy, White will face significant pressure and, when he doesn't, he'll struggle to navigate Detroit's improved secondary.
Importance of Detroit's Pass Attack
Detroit's rush attack is not reliable.
The team's top running backs, Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift regularly struggle to be efficient.
Swift's YPC average looks attractive because of his earlier-season success which featured some very long rushing gains.
But, perhaps impeded by various injury struggles, he has failed to exceed 21 yards rushing in six of his last seven games.
Jets' Pass Defense
The biggest question is whether we get the good Jared Goff or the bad Jared Goff.
Detroit's quarterback has wild swings in performance from week to week.
His outlook this week is negative because the Jets rank second at limiting the opponent's passer rating.
He faced the one team, Philadelphia, that ranks better than the Jets do in this category, and barely managed an 80 passer rating.
The Verdict
Both teams will struggle to score, but the Jets will win.
Except against a Giant team that forgot how to win games, the Lions are proving to be a very different team on road.
They are still learning how to win, and their success this season has come disproportionately at home.
This is evident when they face the same caliber of opponent on the road and at home, or when they face the same opponent at home and on the road.
One cannot trust them to beat a winning team on the road.
Best Bet: Jets PK at -108 with Heritage
Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey
Best Bet: Under 44 at -110 with BetOnline
Detroit's Improved Defense
Any analysis of Detroit's defense is totally worthless if it relies on season-long statistics to even the partial exclusion of more recent averages.
While the Lions, overall, rank 31st in scoring defense, this fact reflects their earlier-season struggles in which their defense lacked the same quality of coaching and personnel that it now possesses.
In their last three games, the Lions are allowing an average of 21.7 points per game.
If this were a season-long statistic, then they would rank 13thin scoring defense.
While 13thmight not seem that impressive, consider that Detroit's last three opponents rank top-10 in scoring offense while the third ranks above-average in the category.
Improved Coaching
The specific component of the Lion defense's improved coaching worth highlighting is its defensive backs coach.
Since the Lions fired Aubrey Pleasant after the team's loss to Miami, the Lions improved monumentally in pass defense.
Before last week, they held quarterbacks to the following statistic output: 57.4% completion rate, 1,223 passing yards, seven touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a 74.9 passer rating.
It's not like the Lions were simply facing bad quarterbacks, either.
Their victims included upstart Jaguar Trevor Lawrence and the high-caliber Bill Josh Allen.
While the Lions allowed a lot of passing yards last week, Viking Kirk Cousins was playing with a significant deficit, and superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson amassed 223 receiving yards alone.
The Jets will suffer for not having any receiver like Jefferson.
Jeff Okudah
Detroit also possesses young talent in its defense that has been getting better.
One player worth highlighting is cornerback Jeff Okudah.
Since his hiccup against Green Bay, he has yet to allow 30 yards in a game to the primary object of his coverage.
Most recently, he held Viking Adam Thielen to 29 yards, Jaguar Zay Jones to 13 yards, and Giant Darius Slayton to 17 yards.
Other Key Figures
Significantly, other key Lion defenders are healthier.
Former first-round, second pick Aidan Hutchinson had been battling injury-related issues earlier in the year.
The rising defensive end has seven sacks now, including 1.5 in his past two games combined.
Jerry Jacobs is an example of Detroit's improved health on defense.
He is healthy now and has returned to his starting role at cornerback.
Jacobs is allowing a 54.1 percent completion rate and a 73.7 passer rating when targeted.
Mike White
In view of Detroit's massively improved pass defense, does Jet quarterback Mike White stand a chance.
White is struggling to be productive: he almost has as many interceptions as touchdowns and is yielding an awful 85.8 passer rating.
He is only playing -- even while banged-up with injured ribs -- because Zach Wilson was struggling so mightily at the position.
His replacement is hardly an optimal answer: White's completion percentage when pressured in 20, and he is completing less than half of his deep balls.
With Lion pass-rushers healthy, White will face significant pressure and, when he doesn't, he'll struggle to navigate Detroit's improved secondary.
Importance of Detroit's Pass Attack
Detroit's rush attack is not reliable.
The team's top running backs, Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift regularly struggle to be efficient.
Swift's YPC average looks attractive because of his earlier-season success which featured some very long rushing gains.
But, perhaps impeded by various injury struggles, he has failed to exceed 21 yards rushing in six of his last seven games.
Jets' Pass Defense
The biggest question is whether we get the good Jared Goff or the bad Jared Goff.
Detroit's quarterback has wild swings in performance from week to week.
His outlook this week is negative because the Jets rank second at limiting the opponent's passer rating.
He faced the one team, Philadelphia, that ranks better than the Jets do in this category, and barely managed an 80 passer rating.
The Verdict
Both teams will struggle to score, but the Jets will win.
Except against a Giant team that forgot how to win games, the Lions are proving to be a very different team on road.
They are still learning how to win, and their success this season has come disproportionately at home.
This is evident when they face the same caliber of opponent on the road and at home, or when they face the same opponent at home and on the road.
One cannot trust them to beat a winning team on the road.
Best Bet: Jets PK at -108 with Heritage
