LCS bow down to KJ stealing 3rd should have won TEX the series Discussion

[GWarner27]

(serious title, if not for 3 errors in an inning TEX wins because Odor was at 3rd with 2 out)

I'm holding a KC to win AL at +240 ticket and although TOR has no business being alive right now I do not feel good about the pitching matchups.

Pure speculation:
10/16 G1 Price (3 days rest)-Volquez
10/17 G2 Estrada-Ventura
10/19 G3 Cueto-Stroman
10/20 G4 Volquez (3 days rest) or Young-Price (3 days rest) or Dickey
10/21 G5 Ventura (3 days rest) or Young-Dickey or Price
10/23 G6 Stroman (3 days rest)-Cueto (3 days rest)
10/24 G7 Price (3 days rest)-Volquez (3 days rest)

HFA is nice, but three in the middle in TOR will be a problem. KC's park is not good for HR, which will be a big benefit for them and will hurt TOR, but TOR is -150 for a reason. Much prefer the KC bullpen late in games, especially at home.

Anyone think I should buy out?

 

[aplous]

I like the idea of big Chris Young getting a start but only in KC....I think KC might use Medlen in Toronto as a 4th starter. Could combine him with Young/Duffy for a bullpen type start.

 

[GWarner27]

I like the idea of big Chris Young getting a start but only in KC....I think KC might use Medlen in Toronto as a 4th starter. Could combine him with Young/Duffy for a bullpen type start.

good point, not sure those fly balls will work in TOR however that likely means G6 or G7 and he won't be starting those games. Sounds like mop-up duty to me, which isn't necessarily bad as he will keep them in it so I guess we gotta plan for the quick hook

...and something's wrong with Duffy, he couldn't K anyone this year even with no drop in velocity and is a prime candidate for giving up HR. Lefty specialist is all I can see and unfortunately that covers nobody on the roster besides Revere and Goins (who would get pinch hit for)

 

[GWarner27]

When someone (not BOL) opened TOR -155, that had to be with price assumed to be starting, right? Estrada can't command that price...

Love Estrada going g1 because 1-0 will give me a much better price to buy out. Not sure I'll do it, but Price should beat Ventura if he's not all screwed up from gibbons's mismanaging

 

[Alan Tongue]

I have the starters as

[TABLE="width: 382"]
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]VOLQUEZ Edinson[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]ESTRADA Marco[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]VENTURA Yordano[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PRICE David[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]STROMAN Marcus[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CUETO Johnny[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DICKEY R.A.[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]MEDLEN Kris[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PRICE David[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]VOLQUEZ Edinson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]VENTURA Yordano[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]STROMAN Marcus[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CUETO Johnny[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]ESTRADA Marco[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Lareux]

When someone (not BOL) opened TOR -155, that had to be with price assumed to be starting, right? Estrada can't command that price...
Love Estrada going g1 because 1-0 will give me a much better price to buy out. Not sure I'll do it, but Price should beat Ventura if he's not all screwed up from gibbons's mismanaging

Yeah, Estrada can't command that price, but where did it open at Tor -155? I don't understand how Price can even command that price on the road if it was him they were assuming was starting. The -155 would sound about right for Price at home (maybe a tad low, but it'd be close), but on the road?

 

[Alan Tongue]

Price in G1 I'd have just under -150, so -155 isn't unreasonable.

 

[Lareux]

Price in G1 I'd have just under -150, so -155 isn't unreasonable.

Yeah, just seemed high to me being on the road in KC.

 

[GWarner27]

Yeah, Estrada can't command that price, but where did it open at Tor -155? I don't understand how Price can even command that price on the road if it was him they were assuming was starting. The -155 would sound about right for Price at home (maybe a tad low, but it'd be close), but on the road?

Haven't been able to find it and maybe pregame is having an issue (cuz it is RJ Bell's brainchild), but I assume someone got out early expecting Price to start...

Price in G1 I'd have just under -150, so -155 isn't unreasonable.

I have similar

 

[GWarner27]

was really rooting for LAD because i thought they were the best chance for us to see CHC as a dog.

More specualtion:
10/17 G1: Lester-Harvey
10/18 G2: Arrieta-Matz
10/20 G3: Syndergaard or deGrom-Hendricks
10/21 G4: deGrom or Syndergaard-Hammel or Lester (3 days rest)
10/22 G5: Harvey-Lester or Arrieta (3 days rest)
10/24 G6: Matz or Syndergaard/deGrom (3 days rest)-Arrieta or Hendricks (3 days rest)
10/25 G7: deGrom or Syndergaard-Hendricks or Hammel (3 days rest) or Lester (3 days rest)

 

[guaranteeed]

 

[nbafan88]

RLM on the total in KC... Randazzo helps the under a lot

posted the pitcher ump splits in the umpire thread

 

[nbafan88]

who are the mets going to pitch vs arrieta? Syndergaard?


mets celebrated hard yesterday in LA with a beer slip n slide

 

[GWarner27]

AL umpires: neutral, neutral, under, over, under, under, under (Reynolds)
NL umpires: over, over, under, over, over, under, neutral (Wegner)

 

[GWarner27]

who are the mets going to pitch vs arrieta? Syndergaard?


mets celebrated hard yesterday in LA with a beer slip n slide

possible after one inning, but i can't say i have too much faith on two days rest

 

[aplous]

I like KC tonight......hoping they win and then I'll bet Jays to win the series most likely. Thinking same tactic in the NL....hoping Harvey can get it done tomorrow night.

 

[nbafan88]

AL umpires: neutral, neutral, under, over, under, under, under (Reynolds)
NL umpires: over, over, under, over, over, under, neutral (Wegner)

you think randazzo is neutral?

Past two-three seasons he has had strong under stats

and ive always looked as Laz as an over/neutral ump

 

[KJ]

Hate Randazzo for my the over I was going to wager, he'll make both these guys look better than advertised

 

[GWarner27]

you think randazzo is neutral?

Past two-three seasons he has had strong under stats

and ive always looked as Laz as an over/neutral ump

Laz was always over for me until his under run two years ago (?) and he's had some games where he just gives the pitchers everything cuz he's got a date or dinner reservation or something. Imagine he won't do that here with so many eyes on him, but Cooper is a low-ball umpire who I'd consider neutral-to-over was giving a big zone in the wildcard game IIRC so i went a little cautious.

Randazzo is one of the best umps in the game i think, never seem to disagree with his calls when i watch him so that's why i call him neutral as he doesn't skew either direction. Probably helps a strikethrower like Estrada and hurts a movement guy like Volquez

 

[GWarner27]

I like KC tonight......hoping they win and then I'll bet Jays to win the series most likely. Thinking same tactic in the NL....hoping Harvey can get it done tomorrow night.

feel similarly on both though Gibbons messing with Price makes me think i'll make sure it's 1-1 before I buy out. Loss tonight and i'm cooked though i think, but i realize that risk

 

[GWarner27]

so that went perfectly, though Madson had me preparing for the worst. Jays and Royals both -110 on 5d and if I buy out I will make less than .4u and that won't do anything for my disaster of a season so I'm gonna hope for a big upset in game two.

Edwin possibly missing g2 is a big deal, but i don't understand the g2 opener of KC -105/8o20 (thinking like g1 this was a mistake and as they had Price in g1 were expecting Estrada g2). I see Price coming near -150, but i think there's reason to speculate he may not be sharp after the way he was toyed with in Arlington. Gibbons is still a bad manager and KC is the team that has been here before...

 

[aplous]

Call me crazy but I like KC again today....was fully planning on pounding Toronto to win the series now at +115 but we have gotten to Price this year.....

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Couple of remarkable stats...

- Only 1 home team (in 22 games) has scored 1st & won SU without shutting out their opponent (the Cubs 8-6 win over the Cards): contrast that with 9 road teams having managed the same feat.

- Only 1 AL Dog (in 12 games) has won in regulation innings without shutting out their opponent (KC's comeback 9-6 win over the Astros): contrast that with 3 NL Dogs having managed the same feat, and in less games (10).

 

[GWarner27]

CHC now +150 and that seems really high with such a big price tag on Arrieta as 1-1 means they could not even return to Queens. Gotta think there's a huge drop in the series price if Arrieta goes 1-1 so i may speculate

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Like the Mets +1.5. Can see this contest being really low scoring: 23 straight playoff games have totaled 4 runs or more (no NL game has totaled less than 4 runs). Can see a typical 1-0/2-0/2-1 playoff type scoreline finally showing up. If so, getting that extra run at a more than reasonable price would obv. be gold. Jake's last start raises the question of whether his "Cinderella run" is over, and he resumes simply being good (hence beatable) rather than insanely good (as he was before the Cards got to him, admittedly with the help of the conditions). Timmons is an ump that could feed into that narrative. Noah at home (2.46 era) has generally been nails, tends to balance the Cubs sporting the best road record in mlb. I've got live betting for the runline as well as total, so I'll see some game in before committing anything.

------

A stat for thought for live bettors: these playoffs have been littered with late runs: only 4 of 24 games have had seen scoreless 7th & 8th innings.

 

[GWarner27]

Also think arrieta is extremely overpriced, but not sure I want to bet against him winning. RL or a +1 may be in order

 

[nbafan88]

Gonna be in the low 40s/upper 30s tonight

 

[C-MAN]

Arietta down to -135 at my shop!!

 

[aplous]

Toronto +205 BTW emotional hedge....if Stroman wins tomorrow KC is throwing big Chris Young in Game 4...he has 2nd highest fly ball % in the majors and will get his titties lit IMO.

 

[GWarner27]

couldn't pull the trigger on Thor last night after i missed a thirty cent move, dammit. Cueto is getting too much

 

[Gyno]

Am I wrong for thinking KC +156 is some major value? I know the crowd will be wild but this is too big of a line.

Thoughts gents?

 

[GWarner27]

Am I wrong for thinking KC +156 is some major value? I know the crowd will be wild but this is too big of a line.

Thoughts gents?

Stroman has only been seen once by KC and only six guys (likely 5 in the lineup) have seen him, but this price is similar to what Stroman gave Hamels in both starts in Toronto so it doesn't seem like a trap. Oddsmakers should have been 0-2 on those games so imho they are stupid by throwing a number like this out there, but they've been walking the tight rope all playoffs and winning despite really bad, inflated numbers.

Cueto's first start with KC was @TOR and from the play-by-play was damn good. Threw a QS (6ip 3r), but all the runs he allowed were with two out and being his first start I think he'll be better at getting off the field. Still a huge bullpen advantage despite not batting last, only Encarnacion has really good numbers vs Cueto but who knows how that'll do with his hand issues. Also a huge strikezone from Hirschbeck seems to favor the strikeout guy (Cueto) rather than the pitch to contact guy (Stroman)

 

[Gyno]

Good thoughts. I just thought this line would be +140 at the most.

 

[kdog]

Good thoughts. I just thought this line would be +140 at the most.

That's exactly what I made this game.

 

[Gyno]

Line is +136 now

 

[KJ]

Took Gordon over Tulo total bases, that's all

Like over but H behind the dish says no dice

 

[aplous]

Hope the #MLBSteam is right again tonight

 

[Gyno]

took Bautista won't hit a HR @ -350 at bovada. LOL

 

[BetCrimes1984]

IMO at least one team down 2-0 will win G3, and probably handsomely at that. Both road teams had to win G7's in the DS, which means they've both put in 3 straight hard efforts to go up 2-0 here (in KC's case, 4), which leads to their G3's being prime let-down spots. Mets have the obvious starting pitching advantage which somewhat alleviates their let-down spot, where KC doesn't. KC's road form is nowhere near as dominant as it was last post season (should be played 2, lost 2 vs. last season's 5-0/never trailed road start): what does ameliorate their let-down spot is Toronto's home form has been anything but inspired. May have something to do with the roof having been closed in all 3 of their games there so far, given the disparity between their roof-open & roof-closed records.

 

[aplous]

Thought H had a big zone? Seems to be squeezing both SP a bit

 

[GWarner27]

IMO at least one team down 2-0 will win G3, and probably handsomely at that. Both road teams had to win G7's in the DS, which means they've both put in 3 straight hard efforts to go up 2-0 here (in KC's case, 4), which leads to their G3's being prime let-down spots. Mets have the obvious starting pitching advantage which somewhat alleviates their let-down spot, where KC doesn't. KC's road form is nowhere near as dominant as it was last post season (should be played 2, lost 2 vs. last season's 5-0/never trailed road start): what does ameliorate their let-down spot is Toronto's home form has been anything but inspired. May have something to do with the roof having been closed in all 3 of their games there so far, given the disparity between their roof-open & roof-closed records.

don't think you could say Stroman had much of an advantage pregame and he really wasn't very good tonight, but Cueto took all the pressure off of him and that changes the game

Thought H had a big zone? Seems to be squeezing both SP a bit

Cueto wanted an up and away called strike three and didn't get it, then got in big trouble. H was not his usual self today, yet another reason to stay away from the playoffs because umpires like Eric Cooper start giving two balls off the plate and one of the best under guys in the game tightens up

 

[BetCrimes1984]

don't think you could say Stroman had much of an advantage pregame and he really wasn't very good tonight, but Cueto took all the pressure off of him and that changes the game

I noted in the in-game during game 2 that KC's weakness was its starters, and that having a HF that wasn't amenable to HR hitting was KC's crucial adv. which offsets that starting weakness, the adv. that Texas didn't have (given they had the same starter problem). But here KC isn't playing @home anymore. KC will win this series because Toronto isn't good enough to win 3 straight at home. But that KC lost in Toronto because one of their starters blew up, cannot be a surprise to anyone. It'll be odds-on to happen again before this series is done.

 

[aplous]

Once the game got out of hand his big zone showed up and got Tulo tossed....if his zone was that wide in the first few innings one team might not have 10 runs.... #Homer #SourGrapes

 

[nbafan88]

Lol aplous

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Hunter Wendelstedt

2010-2015: Home Favs 75-45 (62.5%) / All Favs 106-66 (61.6%)

2013-2015: Home Favs 43-21 (67.1%) / All Favs 61-35 (63.5%)


BHP for Tor/KC G4.

 

[nbafan88]

Did KC actually open up as the favorite today?

 

[Timh]

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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]10/20 05:55:14am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]#963[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left, width: 25%"]KAN[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-right"] 125[/TD]
[TD="class: casino-greybg-right"]OPENER[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]10/20 05:55:14am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]#964[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]R DICKEY -R[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-right"] 9[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]10/20 05:55:28am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]#963[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]#964[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left, width: 25%"]TOR[/TD]
[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]R DICKEY -R[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]10/20 05:56:12am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]#963[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: casino-greybg-left, width: 25%"]KAN[/TD]
[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]C YOUNG -R[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-right"] +140[/TD]
[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"] [/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]10/20 05:56:12am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]#964[/TD]
[TD][TABLE="width: 100%"]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left, width: 25%"]TOR[/TD]
[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]R DICKEY -R[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-right"] -155[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]10/20 05:59:49am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]#963[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-right"] 9[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]10/20 06:14:03am[/TD]
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[TD][TABLE="width: 100%"]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]R DICKEY -R[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-right"] -153[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]10/20 06:14:08am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]10/20 06:14:09am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]10/20 06:14:16am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]10/20 06:14:49am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-right"] -110[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]10/20 06:14:49am[/TD]
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[TD][TABLE="width: 100%"]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left, width: 25%"]TOR[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-right"] -110[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-left"]10/20 06:14:55am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-greybg-right"] 3½[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left"]10/20 06:14:57am[/TD]
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[TD="class: casino-whitebg-left, width: 25%"]KAN[/TD]
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[Timh]

Hunter Wendelstedt

2010-2015: Home Favs 75-45 (62.5%) / All Favs 106-66 (61.6%)

2013-2015: Home Favs 43-21 (67.1%) / All Favs 61-35 (63.5%)


BHP for Tor/KC G4.

Wendlestedt 10-16-3 o/u, 63.8%K, 1.22 WHIP (6th lowest WHIP out of 90 umpires for 2015)

 

[GWarner27]

Once the game got out of hand his big zone showed up and got Tulo tossed....if his zone was that wide in the first few innings one team might not have 10 runs.... #Homer #SourGrapes

Tulo could/should have gotten tossed in like three games this postseason

I noted in the in-game during game 2 that KC's weakness was its starters, and that having a HF that wasn't amenable to HR hitting was KC's crucial adv. which offsets that starting weakness, the adv. that Texas didn't have (given they had the same starter problem). But here KC isn't playing @home anymore. KC will win this series because Toronto isn't good enough to win 3 straight at home. But that KC lost in Toronto because one of their starters blew up, cannot be a surprise to anyone. It'll be odds-on to happen again before this series is done.

completely agree, expecting Young to be that guy though i'm hoping Dickey struggles too

 

[Timh]

Young is such a major fly ball pitcher 0.77 GB/FB ratio that you would think the Jays can make him pay for any mistakes today. Young hasn't pitched forever with only the one playoff appearance vs. Hou on 10/8. Wendlestedt could help him out though, and you figure he only goes 4 or 5 at tops. Dickey has been pitching well and is at home with the roof closed which is what he likes. Amazing he has no walks in last 3 outings. I still think he is overpriced today, but then again Young could get rocked early. Key for KC to stay in game in first 4 or 5 innings.