Ksimp week 4 CFB

ksimpsc

ksimpsc

Pretty much a regular
Week 3 Record:
27-22-2 ATS
2-7 ML
6-4-1 2H or live
9-10 Teaser
6-6 Parlay

Overall Record:
66-63-6 ATS
7-12 ML
12-11-3 2H or live
15-13 Teaser
8-7 Parlay

Decent week up some units. Will probably look to condense the card this week and up the units.

Locked plays:
BYU +4.5 & .5u +7-120
VT -6
BG pk
Kansas +13 PUSH
GaSou -16.5 & -13.5-120(.5 buy)
Auburn -2.5
Gamecocks -14
App St. -7
BC -4
UCM +28
Rice +35.5
OK St -3 PUSH
Navy -6.5 1.5u & -7 -105 .5u
Iowa -24
.5u Ohio +10.5
.5u NM -3
.5u FIU +14.5
.5u NCSt -17
.5u FAU -10 PUSH & 1u -9
.5u Colo St -9
.5u Tenn pk
.5u Mass +29
.5u Ball St. +20.5
.5u wash +4
.5u Vandy +24.5
.5u ULM +38
.5u Trojans -5.5
.5u indiana -3
.5u ucla -2
.25u 1H Boise pk
.5u Mem -7 PUSH

Totals:
USC/UCF U47
Florida/Tenn U53.5
NIU/BC U47.5
NT/Iowa U51 & .5u U54
Akron/ULL U52.5
ND/Mass U56.5
MiOH/WKU U67.5
Miss/Aub O56
BG/Purdue U79
Navy/Uconn O50.5
AppSt/OD U58.5
ColoSt/UTSA U58.5
Mizzou/Kentucky U44.5
Vandy/Miss U55.5
CMU/MSU O54
Boise/UVA U51
Rice/Baylor O76
A&M/Ark O59.5
OKst/Tex O60
Neb/SoMiss U68
.5u Navy/Uconn O48
.5u USC/AZ st O62.5
.5u TT/TCU O80.5
.5u LSU/Cuse U47
.5u Ball/NW U50
.5u Memphis 1H TT O19.5
.5u Memphis O38.5

Teaser:
3 team 10 pt Memphis -0.5, BG +10, TT +17
.5u 3 team 10 pt Cinn +19.5, Cinn/Mem O56.5, Navy +3.5
3 team 10 pt SCar -5, Utah +21, Wash +14
.5u 3 team 10pt Boise +7.5, Boise/UVA U59, Stanford -5.5
1u 3 team 10pt oregon st +23.5, Houston -6.5, FAU pk
.5u 2 team 7pt Og st +20.5, O40
.5u 2 team 7pt Stanford -6.5, O40
3 team 10pt BYU +17, Mich st -16, Cocks -4
3 team 10pt So Miss +30.5, Kansas +25, FAU pk
.5u 3team 10pt SDSU +25.4, GSU -5, Texas +13
.5u 3team 10pt Mizzou +12.5, FAU +1, Texas +13
.5u 3team 10pt oregon -0.5, Texas +13, Washington +10

Parlay:
.25u for 4.62u houston-15, BG -2.5, FAU -9.5, Gamecocks -14
.5u Navy, FAU, App
.5u FAU, SC, Trojans
.5u BG, NMU
.5u ATM, FAU, SC
.5u App st, Trojans
.25u app, colo st, minn
.25u app, colo st
.25u colo st, minn
.25u minn, app
.25u vt, colo st, fau
.25u fau, VT
.25u fau, colo st
.25u colo st, vt

ML:
.5u Virginia +130
.25u BYU +250
.25u Kansas +475
.5u TT +185
.5u Wash +110

2H or live:
.5u 2H Cin +5.5
.5u 2H Cin O38
.5u 2H Stan/OrgSt U25 -105
2H UCF +8 1u
.5u 2H USC -7
.5u 2H BG/Purdue O37
.5u 2H Kansas/Rutgers O30
.5u 2H SoMiss/Neb O27.5
.5u 2H LSU -11
.75u 2H ball st +10
.75u la tech 2h -6
Utah 2H +7
Ecu +8 -105 2.5u
Kent st +4.5 2H
Ohio +4 2H

Futures:
Clemson U 9 (3-0)
Houston O 8 (2-0)
Georgia U 9 (3-0)
Ok St O 7.5 (3-0)
BYU O 8 (2-1)
Pitt O 6 (2-1)
Virginia U 4 (1-2)
Indiana O 5.5 (3-0)
Boise O 10 (2-0)
Iowa U 7.5 (3-0)
Florida O 7 (3-0)
Vandy U3.5 (1-2)
 
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busy working this morning and will try around lunch to get back and post some stuff I hit last night and this morning.

among that off the top of my head are VT, BG at a pk, Cocks -14 against ucf, App St.

some leans CMU, Iowa to fade NT again, OK st though that line seems really fishy, Ball st with the points, rice +33, auburn after laying an egg last week, Syracuse number isnt out due to the QB situation I think but considering them with the points, and Cal laying the -3 is a consideration.

some total leans want to be under in the USC/UCF game out the gate, considering taking TT/TCU O right out of the gate with TCUs injured D, considering the under in Tenn/Florida depending on the number,
 
Man it has seriously sunk in, the cocks are terrible. Georgia runs through teams that are very bad cause they can't stop the stable. I think that says something about the state of our program. M.W. if you are out there you were dead right haha, the floodgates opened up.

Spurrier gets lazy delegating recruitment, Jr is in over his head, and we failed to recruit a LOT of in state talent in favor of UGA and other SEC teams left overs. We did not make offers to a ton of players that would make you laugh.

Someone was talking today about biographer said Spurrier wants to stay coaching until he gets 100 wins. he is currently at 85.... guess I will be looking forward to the 2020 coaching search. We need someone to come in and right the ship. We had multiple good seasons and got lazy right as the SEC East is the worst it has looked in a long time.
 
plays I took early
BYU +4.5
VT -6
BG pk
Kansas +13
Ga Sou -16.5
Auburn -2.5
Gamecocks -14
App St. -7
BC -4
UCM +28
Rice +35.5

Probably a bad spot for BYU but I have them to win O8 on the season and I am riding the train.
Big VT fan, most of my family from there. Not ashamed to say I bet against VT at Purdue and was impressed with what I saw.
Gus won't let Auburn lay and egg two weeks in a row.
Gamecocks got UCF, who lost to Furman 16-15 and FIU 15-14. We are bad but let's hope we are better than this. Will probably look for this under as well.
App St. is returning almost 20 players and I like what I saw fromt hem in the Clemson game even though they got beat handily.

Market moving against me on a few of these so will wait to see what the lines do.

Was leaning Rice as I posted above so now that it is at 35 and the hook I am all over it. Rice can move the football the back door should be open there, if needed at all.
 
adding OK St -3, this line is absolute fish bait with as weird as it is, and even buy on Texas so far. I got Ok St season win and have not been impressed with them so far but I will bite. If I am wrong they can have my money for this one.
 
glad to see the lines moving in my favor on most of these.

Vt line may keep going
Central Mich down to 26
BG now a -2.5, i got a pk and missed the +2 opener
Iowa line is coming down and over 90% of public on NT (still early) if that continues definitely going to be on Iowa
Rice line already starting to come down some
Looking at Ohio line creeping up, going to watch that one
Sharp action againt Ga Sou down to-14.5 so will have to watch that one to see what it does maybe Rex will have some insight
App st already to -8
 
Damn SJSU line went from 5.5 to 3.5 from earlier today when I was looking at it. Was considering fresno at the time but will have to dive deep now
 
adding
NT/Iowa U51
Akron/ULL U52.5
ND/Mass U56.5
MiOH/WKU U67.5
Miss/Aub O56
BG/Purdue U79
Navy/Uconn O50.5
AppSt/OD U58.5
ColoSt/UTSA U58.5
 
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adding Navy -6.5 saw it for a second and jumped on it at bad juice. May take a little more on the -7 -105
 
adding

another .5u on navy -7 -105

Houston -15, was taking -16 and it got hit down to -15 as I took it. I'll take it. I have Houston season win O8 so I like them to keep it rolling here.

GaSou -13.5-120(.5 buy) saw it drop good juice on 14 so went ahead and loaded another unit on them
 
ksimpsc said:
adding OK St -3, this line is absolute fish bait with as weird as it is, and even buy on Texas so far. I got Ok St season win and have not been impressed with them so far but I will bite. If I am wrong they can have my money for this one.
Click to expand...

I think I'm just going to take the over here and not worry about the side.
 
You are right, we are syncing on those totals, lol. My only one opposite is I took the Over in the MASS@ND game. I only took it for a 1/2 unit in spite of showing normal 1 unit value on my numbers, because that ND defense has been pretty dang solid so far. They did lose a starter in the secondary. UMass is generally going to be an Over type team, they've just weirdly stayed under the number after almost no 2nd half points by either team in the second half @ COLO kept it under by a 1/2 point, and then the game against Temple, an Under type team. ND you'd still have to consider an Under type team, but MASS plays fast on offense, which will help. I'm counting on MASS getting about 17 points (which will be tough, honestly), and ND could be playing crush n' cruise in the 2nd half with a big lead, eating the clock with the run. So yeah, there are compelling reasons to take the Under, for sure. MASS hasn't played up to their expected level of offense yet this year, it's hard to ask them for this to be the game where they do, lol. I'm also banking on ND scoring into the 40s in this one, which is doable with MASS's pace.

UCF @ SCAR -- UCF's QB is also out for another couple of weeks. It will be a battle of the bottom of the barrel QBs, for sure. I think the only danger in this one is if SCAR's decent running game wears out a UCF team that might be prone to give up late in this one and there are a couple of cheap scores in garbage time.
 
xyzky said:
I think I'm just going to take the over here and not worry about the side.
Click to expand...
haha that is maybe a good decision. Need to reach a little deeper on that game for the total. Probably set to go over but I was blown away to see Texas score that much. I missed a good bit of it watching other games but every time I watched they were moving well. Cal defense is not anything to write home on either
 
TheSportsCruncher I was also thinking with the look ahead to Clemson on the road for ND, a game I fully expect ND to dominate. You are right typically I would over this play but how ND looked at home last week against GT I am hoping the defense shows up and shuts them down early enough that some garbage scores don't matter.

For the SC game I was prepared to bet that as low as 45 probably. 15-14 loss to FIU, 16-15 loss to Furman and even Stanford only put up 31 in a 38 point total game. Like you said the QB play on both ends is bad and USC generally does not play well for nooners against a shit opponent. Lack luster environment in Willy B. Probably will be a garbage score or two but I am hoping ineptitude on offense and some FG or possible long drives for jenk will make up for that.
 
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oh one more note I forgot about. Lorenzo Nunez will likely take a lot of snaps for QB for Carolina. He is an Elite 11 guy but is a true frosh and has not gotten the hang of things yet. Very mobile and could be used in the option with Pharroh or BWilds very easily. So if he takes more than 10-15 snaps like I think he will probably see even more ineptitude than usual.
 
CMU/MSU O54

Had Syracuse and AFA last week in bets feel confident 54 is a little low for these teams. CMU new coaching staff going to push it no matter the result. Saw that last week in evidence of them exploiting over and over the Syracuse coach not adjusting for the TE in that 1:15 drive to go to overtime. MSU looked like trash against AFA who honestly had a real shot of winning the game with a fumble scoop and score early, a fumble in the second half, and 3 trips to the red with no points and they still only lost by 14, 35-21.
 
Boise/UVA U51

back up QB for boise with a top 15 defensive unit already moved a point but I will take it
 
adding a few totals

Rice/Baylor O76

was hesitant to take but I got Rice +35.5 and feel confident they will score some points. 21 points from them should go along way for it

A&M/Ark O59.5

I am finally on a SEC Over this week! Was on the Ark over last week against TT and nearly made it despite about 12 points in missed FG and opportunities.

OKst/Tex O60

joining my man xyzky on this one. after looking at it more the number feels tight but if the game goes anything like the second half of the Cal game this will go way over.
 
update on my season win totals

Futures:
Clemson U 9 (3-0) the hard part of the schedule is coming
Houston O 8 (2-0) Lou win helped
Georgia U 9 (3-0) Hopefully Richt can screw it up
Ok St O 7.5 (3-0) Looking pretty good so far need Tex win
BYU O 8 (2-1) Looking pretty good thus far
Pitt O 6 (2-1) got some hard parts of the schedule coming up not sure how I feel here
Virginia U 4 (1-2) still feel pretty good here. They may not win a game in October
Indiana O5.5 (3-0) got some hard games coming up but feel good
Boise O 10 (2-0) O10 may be a little aggressive. Hopefully they can keep it going
Iowa U 7.5 (3-0) Iowa may beat me this year lol. Got some really tough games coming up but good start for them.
Florida O7 (3-0) just need 1 good win out of them. FAU, USC, Vandy should be easy enough wins
Vandy U3.5 (1-2) LOL scares me that this bet could come down to Gamecocks beating Vandy smh
 
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saw U7 prior to the season for Gamecocks season win and didn't want to jinx it. Thought about taking that big, would have been a very solid bet haha
 
adding Navy/Uconn O48 and another .5u on Navy -6.5 -105

This makes it a 1.5u at -6.5 and .5u at -7-105 for 2 full units. The public is on Uconn after their showing against Mizzou but Mizzou is trash and has had a super weak schedule through the first few weeks. Going to check that Kentucky game out later and may back Kentucky. I will gladly go against the public here. Probably take Navy TT O depending on the number when it pops at my book. I am on bookmaker currently and they suck with the prop bets compared to some of the stuff I see posted typically
 
5Dimes is best for props and TT's with normal 20 cent lines but they don't post them until game day, typically.

I'm not sure what's going on with BG @ PUR line either. Someone did post that PUR will be starting a new QB. I don't have BG winning by much, but of all the teams they've played so far, Purdue isn't going to be the one that slows them down.
 
I went hiking in the mountains this weekend and didn't even watch the game, that tells you enough about how I feel about this program.
 
hahaha ETG my man. Can't blame you. It was an absolute blood letting. To say Georgia left some point on the field makes me feel even worse
 
adding BYU/Mich O45.5

Mich last two games have been under 45 with their opponents failing to score more than a touchdown
 
add .5u iowa -24 vs NT on my continuing NT fade.

Not really a good spot but the situation in NT is not very good right now and the QB play is terrible. Iowa has Wisconsin next week so big game but hey I will keep the fade going for .5u
 
mrob said:
like a lot...do u like the under in so. carolina or the side more?
Click to expand...
morb BOL this week. as in post #2 I was planning on taking the SCar under the minute it came out. I took U47 and now I think the thing is down to 43.5. Still have a slight chance there. I would not want to take it under 45 probably. Took SCar -14 I think it is at -14.5 now. The problem is SCar seems to play down to their opponents sometimes, especially in a noon game. If we are up multiple scores in the 4th I could see a lot of people leaving and/or the environment being kind of stale. Back door could potentially be open, but this is also against a team that scored 15 on FIU and 14 on Furman. QB problems so gonna be an ugly game in general. I would think we dominate the line but hard to tell the effort we get.
 
making it a full unit on Iowa, NT is awful and the QB is pretty much friend of the family to the coach shouldn't even be there.
 
mrob said:
like a lot...do u like the under in so. carolina or the side more?
Click to expand...

I didn't answer your question. At this point with the total so low I like the side a lot still. They are down a QB and a RB I just don't see them scoring a whole lot. But that means you are trusting in the SCARy D
 
thx, I was even looking at the ucf TT under bc I know more about them then the cocks
 
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