KJ Aussie Open 2019

[KJ]

Just going to move stuff posted in the other thread over here to keep track as we get to the weekend and 2nd week and I can put a bit more time in

Futures

Nadal to win Quarter 4 -200 10*
Federer to win Quarter 3 -225 10*
Kerber to win Quarter 4 -125 8*
Osaka to win Australian Open +250 5*

1/16

Kei -4.5 -112 2*
Cornet +2.5 -110 2*
Cornet ML +134
Muguruza ML -172 3*
Chardy +7 -121
Harrison +6 -123 2*
Harrison ML +380 .5*

1/17

Schwartzmann +5.5 +100 2.5*
Schwartzmann ML +323 .5*
Tiafoe ML -113 3*
Seppi/Tiafoe o40.5 -112 4*
Khachanov/RBA o40 -108 1.5*
Verdasco/Cilic o38.5 -110 2*
Wozniacki o12.5 +110 2*
Sloane -4.5 +104
Kerber/Birrell u18 -116 2*

1/18

Kei/Sousa o35 -107 5*
Sousa o14.5 -115 2*
Carreno Busta ML +101 2*
Goffin +4 -109 2.5*
Goffin ML +167
Raonic/Herbert o37.5 -113 3*
Herbert o16.5 -120 2*
Herbert +5.5 -120 1.5*
Herbert ML +454 .5*
Hsieh u8.5 -115 2.5*
Zhang u8 -105 2*
Keys o12.5 +105 2*
Keys/Mertens o22 -110 8*
Mugu to win 1st set -199 2.5*
Mugu/Bacsinszky u21 -118 4*
Giorgi +3 -117 3*
Giorgi ML +157 1.5*

1/19

Dimitrov/Tiafoe o38.5 -114 7*
Tiafoe +4.5 -110 4*
Tiafoe ML +204
RBA +114 2*
Barty -132 3*
Collins u7.5 -115 2.5*
Federer 1st Set -344 3*
Sloane ML -168 2*

1/20

Osaka ML -169 10*
Osaka -1.5 sets +145 3*
Mugu +1.5 sets -225 2.5*
Mugu ML +104 6*
Raonic/Zverev o45 -110 10*
Zverev ML -130 3*
Zverev o22.5 -115 2.5*
Pouille +2.5 sets -185 10*
Pouille/Coric o38 -128 5*
Pouille +5 -112 5*
Pouille ML +293 2*
PCB +2.5 sets -160 4*

1/21

RBA ML -114 6*
Tsitsi/RBA to see a tiebreak -240 5*
Tsitsi/RBA o3.5 sets -195 2.5*
Collins/Pavlyuchenkova o22 -110 5*
Collins/Pavlyuchenkova o2.5 sets +135 2.5*
Barty ML +127 2*
Nadal/Tiafoe o29.5 -113 6*
Nadal/Tiafoe o3.5 sets +235 2.5*
Tiafoe +2.5 sets +165 2.5*
Tiafoe +1.5 sets +450
Nadal/Tiafoe o4.5 sets +600 .5*

1/22

Pouille/Raonic o38 -109 8*
Pouille/Raonic o3.5 sets -110 6*
Pouille +5 +115 3*
Pouille o17.5 -110 2.5*
Pouille/Raonic o4.5 sets +350
Pouille ML +448 .5*
Joker to win 1st set -400 2.5*
Kei/Joker u33 -113 5*
Joker -7.5 -118 3*

1/23

Collins/Kvitova o20.5 -106 4*
Collins +4.5 +106 1.5*
Osaka ML -109 8*
Osaka 2nd Set Winner -115 5*
Nadal/Tsitsipas o3.5 sets -110 8*
Nadal/Tsitsipas o35.5 -111 5*
Nadal/Tsitsipas to see a tiebreak -225 5*
Tsitsipas +6.5 -115 3*
Tsitsipas +2.5 sets -140 1.5*
Tsitsipas -7.5 aces -110
Tsitsipas ML +482 .5*

Women's Ship

Kvitová/Osaka o22 -121 7*
Kvitova/Osaka o2.5 sets +140 3*
Osaka to win at least 1 set -225 2.5*
Kvitova/Osaka o10.5 aces -130 2*
Kvitova/Osaka 1st set o2.5 breaks -120
Kvitová to win 1st set 7-5 or 7-6 +550 .5*
Osaka to win 1st set 7-5 or 7-6 +550 .5*

Men's ship

Nadal ML +120 15*
Nadal/Joker 1st set u1.5 breaks -130 2.5*
Nadal o21.5 -110 2.5*
Nadal/Joker o3.5 sets -270 2.5*
Nadal +1.5 sets -150 2.5*
Nadal -1.5 sets +200 2.5*
Nadal/Joker u16.5 aces -115 2*

 

[KJ]

1/18

Goffin +4 -109 2.5*
Goffin ML +167
Raonic/Herbert o37.5 -113 3*
Herbert o16.5 -120 2*
Herbert +5.5 -120 1.5*
Herbert ML +454 .5*

The big bombers have checked out quickly so I'm thinking Raonic is playing on borrowed time

 

[B.A.R.]

LFG

 

[KJ]

Ugh pushing time

Hsieh u8.5 -115 2.5*
Zhang u8 -105 2*

 

[KJ]

Kei/Sousa o35 -107 5*
Sousa o14.5 -115 2*
Carreno Busta ML +101 2*


Not a ton I like later at night in ATP, prolly add a couple WTA

 

[KJ]

Wanted to find a way to play her without such ridiculous juice, ML is up to -284 but 1st set been stone walled at -199, I'll bite...

Mugu to win 1st set -199 2.5*
Mugu/Bacsinszky u21 -118 4*

 

[HUNT]

lets gooo

 

[KJ]

Huntdog ride along

Giorgi +3 -117 3*
Giorgi ML +157 1.5*

 

[Big daddy naught]

Think PH2 has superior fitness to Milos and will br tough to break. Def see him covering the hc

 

[KJ]

Might be tilting tonight, hope not

Keys o12.5 +105 2*
Keys/Mertens o22 -110 8*

 

[KJ]

Bloodbath, couldn't even get Giorgi +3 when she was -1 going into the last set. Sums it up. Really liked last night too...fuck it, hate the card tonight.

Going square as all fk and betting on Nadal/Fed to meet in the semis, at this point I think these prices are very reasonable, not even sure I see the scare other than mayyyybe Grigor against Rafa (prolly should make me nervous) but this is complete perceived value. Hopefully Tiafoe can put that to bed and take down Grigor on his 21st bday!

Fading Maria after her big win against Woz and now gotta play against basically the entire arena tonight, can see her getting rattled pretty easily. Prolly play on one if not both American women as well, got time.

Futures

Nadal to win Quarter 4 -200 10*
Federer to win Quarter 3 -225 10*

1/19

Dimitrov/Tiafoe o38.5 -114 7*
Tiafoe +4.5 -110 4*
Tiafoe ML +204
RBA +114 2*
Barty -132 3*

 

[Big daddy naught]

RBA and Frances ftw

 

[KJ]

Kerber to win Quarter 4 -125 8*
Collins u7.5 -115 2.5*

Just taking the -125 price assuming Kerber wins this one, that should be a nice bargain for the next match, can decide if I want to hedge if it's Sloane. That sweeping lefty serve seems to do so well on the hard court.

 

[Big daddy naught]

Barty choking. Maria should have been off the court 20 min ago

 

[Big daddy naught]

I think Collins keeps one set close tonight

 

[KJ]

I think Collins keeps one set close tonight

6-4

She might, 6-4 is close enough lol. I more or less think the future is such an attractive way to play Angie to win tonight

 

[Big daddy naught]

Agree, Angie and Sloane advance. Like berdych hc vs Rafa too

 

[KJ]

Agree, Angie and Sloane advance. Like berdych hc vs Rafa too

You thinking a tiebreak or two? I assume you think Rafa wins in straights, if not one of, if not both player totals would be good

 

[Big daddy naught]

I could see Tomas sneaking a set if he serves well or Rafa winning 3 tight ones

 

[KJ]

If I were to bet on that match Byrdshit would piss me off somehow no matter the wager, god he drives me nuts

 

[Big daddy naught]

If I were to bet on that match Byrdshit would piss me off somehow no matter the wager, god he drives me nuts

Haha I hear that. I usually like him as a dog getting games never as a fav

 

[Inspekdah]

Hope you make some $$$

Love the down under

 

[Big daddy naught]

Cliff is gonna have a heart attack commentating this match

 

[KJ]

Thank fuck that's over jeebus

 

[Big daddy naught]

Thank fuck that's over jeebus

I bet that match vs kvitova last week 3rd set was a choke fest. Like 4 straight breaks to close it out

 

[KJ]

Glad everyone's asleep or out so as not to see this play but like Brad Gilbert said, he admitted he's playing his idol. Automatically will be down a set. Seems like a bargain unless Fed gets hurt even at this number. Bet Fed wins the first set at least 85% of the time in this situation.

Federer 1st Set -344 3*

 

[KJ]

Sloane ML -168 2*

 

[Big daddy naught]

Agree on Sloane here. Should be too consistent for the Russian.

Sorry I missed this before, like Fed match to go over. They’ve played once before and fed won in 2 TBs. I know it’s hindsight now but kid won’t be a deer in headlights out there. Dude will give Roger a run

 

[B.A.R.]

Agree on Sloane here. Should be too consistent for the Russian.

Sorry I missed this before, like Fed match to go over. They’ve played once before and fed won in 2 TBs. I know it’s hindsight now but kid won’t be a deer in headlights out there. Dude will give Roger a run

Prophetic.

 

[B.A.R.]

Glad everyone's asleep or out so as not to see this play but like Brad Gilbert said, he admitted he's playing his idol. Automatically will be down a set. Seems like a bargain unless Fed gets hurt even at this number. Bet Fed wins the first set at least 85% of the time in this situation.

Federer 1st Set -344 3*

Never a doubt.

 

[KJ]

Hopefully last match got more than enough of Naomi's attention to make this one easy. She battled, she conquered, and now let's hope she makes her run. And Garbine gonna win this damn thing (yes, that's my stretch guess). And I'm just gonna assume Raonic/Zverev goes at least 4 sets and that over should be good

1/20

Osaka ML -169 10*
Osaka -1.5 sets +145 3*
Mugu +1.5 sets -225 2.5*
Mugu ML +104 6*
Raonic/Zverev o45 -110 10*
Zverev ML -130 3*
Zverev o22.5 -115 2.5*

 

[Big daddy naught]

Like mugu tonight, and think Serena wins but unless I parlay her w something won’t take it

 

[pb278817]

10 double faults in 3 sets. I don’t watch much tennis but that seems fucking terrible

 

[Big daddy naught]

Disgraceful effort from Sasha, at least he tried in the 3rd set

 

[KJ]

I didn't even see it, just got back from chasing that f'n moon and it's too cloudy to see much. Such is life. I'm ready to go on full blast, won't call it tilt because I'm sticking to what I believe but units might go a bit crazy tonight. Just cuz. Tomorrow a great holiday honoring a great man who had a dream that there would be all day NBA basketball. And I will always salute the great Dr for that among other things.

So let's go MUGU

 

[KJ]

Don't think this is tilt, I think Pouille has an outside shot. But gonna let it fly like I KNOW he has an outside shot

Pouille +2.5 sets -185 10*
Pouille/Coric o38 -128 5*
Pouille +5 -112 5*
Pouille ML +293 2*

 

[KJ]

This match is about BALL CONTROL. Garbine needs to grab and slay

 

[KJ]

Break her

 

[KJ]

Can PCB get a set from Kei? Seems like Kei could be a decent fade after he might have played as well as I've ever seen him last round

 

[KJ]

This blows, going to loose a pretty penny on this tournament this year

 

[KJ]

PCB +2.5 sets -160 4*

 

[Big daddy naught]

Don't think this is tilt, I think Pouille has an outside shot. But gonna let it fly like I KNOW he has an outside shot

Pouille +2.5 sets -185 10*
Pouille/Coric o38 -128 5*
Pouille +5 -112 5*
Pouille ML +293 2*

Looks good so far bro

 

[Big daddy naught]

This match is about BALL CONTROL. Garbine needs to grab and slay

Another head case. Staying off her matches in the future

 

[Big daddy naught]

PCB +2.5 sets -160 4*

Already a cash for ya bro.

Serena doing work.

 

[KJ]

Pouille did a helluva job bailing me out last night, thanks man! On to tonight, think RBA gets this done, big letdown spot for Tsitsi

1/21

RBA ML -114 6*
Tsitsi/RBA to see a tiebreak -240 5*
Tsitsi/RBA o3.5 sets -195 2.5*
Collins/Pavlyuchenkova o22 -110 5*
Collins/Pavlyuchenkova o2.5 sets +135 2.5*
Barty ML +127 2*

 

[KJ]

Going to try this with Tiafoe, he's been playing well enough hopefully he can get at least a set out of Rafa. Already expect to wake up to Rafa in straights but there's a ton of value out there if Frances can get one.

Nadal/Tiafoe o29.5 -113 6*
Nadal/Tiafoe o3.5 sets +235 2.5*
Tiafoe +2.5 sets +165 2.5*
Tiafoe +1.5 sets +450
Nadal/Tiafoe o4.5 sets +600 .5*

 

[Big daddy naught]

Pouille did a helluva job bailing me out last night, thanks man! On to tonight, think RBA gets this done, big letdown spot for Tsitsi

1/21

RBA ML -114 6*
Tsitsi/RBA to see a tiebreak -240 5*
Tsitsi/RBA o3.5 sets -195 2.5*
Collins/Pavlyuchenkova o22 -110 5*
Collins/Pavlyuchenkova o2.5 sets +135 2.5*
Barty ML +127 2*

Damn bro. Minus the su on RBA nice job. I sat today out. Collins has that swag.

 

[Big daddy naught]

Going to try this with Tiafoe, he's been playing well enough hopefully he can get at least a set out of Rafa. Already expect to wake up to Rafa in straights but there's a ton of value out there if Frances can get one.

Nadal/Tiafoe o29.5 -113 6*
Nadal/Tiafoe o3.5 sets +235 2.5*
Tiafoe +2.5 sets +165 2.5*
Tiafoe +1.5 sets +450
Nadal/Tiafoe o4.5 sets +600 .5*

I could see Frances sneaking out the 1st set, unfortunately I only think 1 set competitive and then it’s one way traffic for Rafa. Just think he’s gonna be too tired having spent a lot of time on court. Not what you want when going up agsinst the ultimate grinder in Rafa.

Hope I’m wrong for ya tho. Lol

 

[KJ]

Took a stab on Tiafoe, would do it again today. Ah well.

Gonna try me some Lucas again

1/22

Pouille/Raonic o38 -109 8*
Pouille/Raonic o3.5 sets -110 6*
Pouille +5 +115 3*
Pouille o17.5 -110 2.5*
Pouille/Raonic o4.5 sets +350
Pouille ML +448 .5*

Probably find a way to get involved with both dogslater on as well

 

[Big daddy naught]

That over sets bet looks good