Kentucky Derby Thread

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'm betting the derby tomorrow. I don't know much about horses, but I'll devote this thread to some discussion throughout the day. First topic that needs to be addressed is the weather for tomorrow.

Post thoughts/plays/whatever.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Apparently its wet down there now, but it's suppose to dry up and be sunny by race time.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Dunkirk and Pioneer of the Nile are down to 4-1 and those numbers will probably continue to fall.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

West Side Bernie (30-1) could be in my Tri.

 

[orangemonk]

anyone with picks for the next race? i dont know shit but i wanna get down

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I like Hold Me Back at 15-1. He has a good post, and his jockey is the same who rode Big Brown to victory.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

anyone with picks for the next race? i dont know shit but i wanna get down

Nah, just look at the track conditions. If it's still sloppy, take whatever horse has experience on a sloppy track.

 

[orangemonk]

well im a degen got these tri boxes in....

356, 369, 236

 

[wearo dog]

Kodiak Cowboy is a monster.

 

[orangemonk]

kodiak cowboy is a fucking bum

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

My main goal is to narrow the field. I'm going to eliminate every horse who runs for speed. They are:

Musket Man
Advice
Papa Clem
Regal Ransom
Join in the Dance

 

[Seabass]

Is Saez the jockey who rode that horse to death last year? Could be a nice story to go from tragedy to victory one year later..

 

[wearo dog]

kodiak cowboy is a fucking bum

Beaten by inferior horses. Cost me $30. Oh well, next.

 

[wolverine5767]

My main goal is to narrow the field. I'm going to eliminate every horse who runs for speed. They are:

Musket Man
Advice
Papa Clem
Regal Ransom

What about Friesen Fire?

Personally I am on Pioneerof The Nile. I got him at 8-1 in Vegas back before he won the Santa Anita Derby.

 

[Seabass]

My main goal is to narrow the field. I'm going to eliminate every horse who runs for speed. They are:

Musket Man
Advice
Papa Clem
Regal Ransom
Join in the Dance

I liked reading some touts reasoning on eliminating Pioneer of the Nile based on minimal dirt experience...

I'm taking fliers on RR, Hold Me Back, and Chocolate Candy. Just going with my gut though. Friesan Fire seems to be the smart money.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'm also going to eliminate Chocolate Candy who has never raced on dirt.

 

[tigercub]

yah race 6. played a 2,3,6 ex box. shoulda had the exacta. prado got the roundhouse going too late. really pissed i passed on the 6 to win there. kk with a terrible trip. onto race 7....

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

What about Friesen Fire?

Personally I am on Pioneerof The Nile. I got him at 8-1 in Vegas back before he won the Santa Anita Derby.

I'm waiting on FF based on the track conditions. If the track is good, FF is out for me.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

So I narrowed the field:

#1 WEST SIDE BERNIE
#3 MR HOT STUFF
#5 HOLD ME BACK
#6 FRIESAN FIRE*
#8 MINE THAT BIRD
#12 GENERAL QUARTERS
#14 ATOMIC RAIN
#15 DUNKIRK
#16 PIONEEROF THE NILE
#17 SUMMER BIRD
#18 NOWHERE TO HIDE
#19 DESERT PARTY
#20 FLYING PRIVATE

 

[tigercub]

pissed the 7 in race 7 is scratched. 15-1 ml was looking juicy.

 

[CapTwo]

I'm also going to eliminate Chocolate Candy who has never raced on dirt.

:shake:

Pretty big move on chocolate candy and not too many people are understanding why. Down to 8:1....

Went with friesan fire. No wind or sun and its very unlikely the track will be dry by race time. Advantage FF.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

:shake:

Pretty big move on chocolate candy and not too many people are understanding why. Down to 8:1....

Went with friesan fire. No wind or sun and its very unlikely the track will be dry by race time. Advantage FF.

Yea, I really am monitoring this. It's funny...It the track is sloppy, FF is in my Tri. If it's fine, he's not.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'm eliminating Summer Bird who lacks experience.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Mr. Hot Stuff and Pioneer of the Nile are both gone due to lack of dirt experience.

 

[orangemonk]

1 4 10 exacta box for race 7 lets get itt

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

#1 west side bernie
#5 hold me back
#6 friesan fire*
#8 mine that bird
#12 general quarters
#14 atomic rain
#15 dunkirk
#18 nowhere to hide
#19 desert party
#20 flying private

 

[tigercub]

So I narrowed the field:

#1 WEST SIDE BERNIE
#3 MR HOT STUFF
#5 HOLD ME BACK
#6 FRIESAN FIRE*
#8 MINE THAT BIRD
#12 GENERAL QUARTERS
#14 ATOMIC RAIN
#15 DUNKIRK
#16 PIONEEROF THE NILE
#17 SUMMER BIRD
#18 NOWHERE TO HIDE
#19 DESERT PARTY
#20 FLYING PRIVATE

right now have it down to

5-hold me back
6- friesan fire
15- dunkirk (my fav., now that i want revenge is out)
17- summer bird
19- desert party


will look it over before the race, but thats what im looking at for now...

 

[Streakin]

1 4 10 exacta box for race 7 lets get itt

have the exact same box...GL

 

[tigercub]

1 4 10 exacta box for race 7 lets get itt

lets get it om. reallly like the 1 here.

played $30 wp on the 1

and

$10 ex 1 with the 3,10
$10 ex 3,10 with the 1.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

right now have it down to

5-hold me back
6- friesan fire
15- dunkirk (my fav., now that i want revenge is out)
17- summer bird
19- desert party


will look it over before the race, but thats what im looking at for now...

it's great to narrow down the field. Then you can just throw your top 5 into a bunch of different bets.

 

[tigercub]

it's great to narrow down the field. Then you can just throw your top 5 into a bunch of different bets.

yeah. definately still a crap shoot, but we'll see. hopefully the luck is on our side today. :cheers:

 

[CapTwo]

saw this on another forum. dunno how accurate it is, but seems legit.

decided to take a flyer on nowhere to hide for $10 @ 50:1.
if it loses well ive spent $10 on worse things.

Daily Racing Form's computerized Tomlinson Ratings, which rate a horse's ability to run well on a wet track based on its pedigree (the higher the number the better the grade).

Nowhere to Hide 480
Friesan Fire 447
General Quarters 445
Dunkirk 427
Join in the Dance 422
Flying Private 420
Mr. Hot Stuff 408
Desert Party 405
Hold Me Back 404

 

[tigercub]

post time for race 7. be nice to get back on track here... lol.

 

[orangemonk]

i dont like the british guy

 

[orangemonk]

:hang:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

saw this on another forum. dunno how accurate it is, but seems legit.

decided to take a flyer on nowhere to hide for $10 @ 50:1.
if it loses well ive spent $10 on worse things.

Daily Racing Form's computerized Tomlinson Ratings, which rate a horse's ability to run well on a wet track based on its pedigree (the higher the number the better the grade).

Nowhere to Hide 480
Friesan Fire 447
General Quarters 445
Dunkirk 427
Join in the Dance 422
Flying Private 420
Mr. Hot Stuff 408
Desert Party 405
Hold Me Back 404

Interesting...Im gonna look this up. Is the track still bad ?

 

[Joe Public]

i dont like the british guy

I'm on the other side of that. I like him. I didn't like the NBC guy they had forever.

 

[tigercub]

have the exact same box...GL

nice hit guys.:cheers:

 

[orangemonk]

YESSIRR!

 

[orangemonk]

for some reason i thought i played a tri and lost..im an idiot

 

[tigercub]

yah. only 11.20, but a winning ticket is a winning ticket.

 

[Joe Public]

Love that as soon as they show Jordan they start talking about gambling.

 

[mogo]

for the derby , as far as strategy goes is it profitable or smart to play more or less exacta boxes?

like should i just pick out a few horses and play 2 or 3 ex boxes, or spread i around it pick out a number of different combos of horses and play around 5-6 of them? whats the best way to do that?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'm scratching Flying Private due to a poor last outing. He finished 5th with a few other derby horses in the field. Also, the poor post position only adds to his downfall. So I narrowed my list to 9 horses:

#1 west side bernie
#5 hold me back
#6 friesan fire*
#8 mine that bird
#12 general quarters
#14 atomic rain
#15 dunkirk
#18 nowhere to hide
#19 desert party

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

for the derby , as far as strategy goes is it profitable or smart to play more or less exacta boxes?

like should i just pick out a few horses and play 2 or 3 ex boxes, or spread i around it pick out a number of different combos of horses and play around 5-6 of them? whats the best way to do that?

personally, im gonna find 2 money horses. (likely friesan fire and dunkirk right now, but I dunno). And then just play tris and supers with those 2 and some other smart long shots.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

MineThatBird is also out after a poor last outing finished 4th a field even worse than what Flying Private faced. So we're down to 8:

#1 west side bernie
#5 hold me back
#6 friesan fire*
#12 general quarters
#14 atomic rain
#15 dunkirk
#18 nowhere to hide
#19 desert party

 

[orangemonk]

why is 6 flags sponsoring the derby?? i would imagine not a lot of younger people are watching the derby..

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Atomic Rain is gone for the same reasons as the 2 above. Down to 7 now:

#1 west side bernie
#5 hold me back
#6 friesan fire*
#12 general quarters
#15 dunkirk
#18 nowhere to hide
#19 desert party

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

why is 6 flags sponsoring the derby?? i would imagine not a lot of younger people are watching the derby..

I think they try to advertise to the main buyers (the parents). But I think usually women decide on vacations/trips, and I can't imagine many women are watching.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'm scratching Nowhere to Hide. The horse was a late addition and has no place being in this field. So now we have 6:

#1 west side bernie
#5 hold me back
#6 friesan fire*
#12 general quarters
#15 dunkirk
#19 desert party