Kentucky Derby Thread

haha picking the derby drives me nuts. everytime i look things over i get dizzy.


race 8 - one mile on the turf


2 looks good, but im gonna try and beat it.


going with $20 WPS on the 5 Zee Zee.
 
CapTwo said:
:shake:

Pretty big move on chocolate candy and not too many people are understanding why. Down to 8:1....

Went with friesan fire. No wind or sun and its very unlikely the track will be dry by race time. Advantage FF.
Click to expand...

my boys at churchill say they really liked CC and FF. i'm planning on keying them on top. i liked CC before i heard that. now, even more so.

if it's sloppy, i like FF more.

This horse loves the slop. It's in his bloodlines. His father was a mudda', his mother was a mudda'!
 
Fundamental question - how does a sloppy track affect a race? Is it naturally slower so the speed horse can hold up longer? Or do you just adjust the splits because its tougher to run? And how will horses react with mud getting kicked into their face for 3/4 of a mile? Do they naturally try to push their pace to the front and wear down quicker?

Intuitively I think front running horses have the edge in the slop. Is that true?
 
mogo said:
for the derby , as far as strategy goes is it profitable or smart to play more or less exacta boxes?

like should i just pick out a few horses and play 2 or 3 ex boxes, or spread i around it pick out a number of different combos of horses and play around 5-6 of them? whats the best way to do that?
Click to expand...

cut/paste from google search


Two things to know is that they are separate bets and you will draw winnings from separate pools, and boxing an exacta costs twice as much as a quinella.

It's the same thing, just different terminology and different betting pools.

If you were to play a $2 exacta box 5-7, it would cost you $4, where a $2 quinella will cost $2.

In both bets, the horses could finish in either order.

If there was a dead-heat for win, you would see two prices for exactas, where you would pick up both payouts, but you'd still only get 1 quinella price.
lets say you like 1 and 2 in a race
ok if you like one and two to win of run second you would take an exacta boxed!
if you like one to win and two to come second you would take a quinella
In order to win an exacta, you select the exact order of the first two horses (winner and the runner up) across the finish line.

The runner up is referred to as the Place horse.

As for the Quinella, it is the safest of the two. In other words, youl'll cash a ticket in you wager upon the Winner and the Place horse ... no matter which come in first as long as they finish ahead of the field.

Oftentimes, a two dollar payoff on a Quinella pays more than a one dollar Exacta box (combination).

Why?

Because in an exacta payoff, if the horse with the lowest odds comes in first, the payoff will be smaller that if the horse with the higher odds wins ... however, the Quinella payoff remains the same regardless of each horse's finishing order.
none except the pools they pay from. If you get a $1.00 exacta box on nos 1 and 2.it would be the same as a $2.00 Quinella on 1 and 2. both cost $2.00. both payoff if nos 1 and 2. run first and second.either way.the Qoinella payoff is usually a little higher because it is a winning $2.00 bet and the exacta box is a 1 win 1 lost bet you collect on a $1.00 bet.
Click to expand...

The quinella and exacta are two bets that are very similar. In both bets, the horse racing bettor picks two horses that will finish ahead of the other horses. In the exacta they must be in exact order whereas in the quinella, they may be in either order. Horse racing betting for profit demands that a player not only be a good handicapper, but also a good shopper.

To make money betting on horses you must learn how to spot a value bet. So when faced with the choice of a quinella or an exacta, how do you know which one offers the best value? There are mathematical formulas but they can be hard to use and there is also software available that attempts to answer this question.

The value is based on the probability of the two horses finishing in the order needed to fill the bet, so in the case of the exacta, it would be the probability of the top horse to finish first multiplied by the probability of the place horse to finish in that position. So if you top horse goes off at 8-5 but really has a one in three chance of winning, then you know the best you can hope for is for the exacta to pay off once for every three times you play it.

Next you must factor in the second place horse. If it also goes off at 8-5 and has a 20% probability of finishing second 20% of the time, then the actual chances of the bet being completed is 33% times 20%. That computes to about one out of fourteen races that you will hit the exacta straight.

To put it another way, if the same race was run one hundred times, the top horse would win about 33 times. Of those 33 races, the second choice would place in about a fifth of them. A fifth of 33 is almost 7, so we round it off to 7 races out of one hundred or approximately 7%.

To compute a fair price for the bet, imagine a base exacta bet of $2 times 100 races equals $200. Divide that $200 by the seven races and you find that you get about $28.50. So in order to break even with an exacta bet involving 2 horses at 8-5 odds, you'd need to get a payoff of about $28.50. If you see an exacta that is paying more than that, then you know it is a good bet as long as the percentages are accurate.

You compute quinella probabilities the same way but you have to use the percentages for either horse finishing first or second. If a base exacta bet is $2 but only completes if the horses are in exact order and a base quinella bet is $2 and completes with either horse on top, then the probability for the quinella bet is double what the exacta bet is and any quinella that pays more than half what the exacta pays is a better bet, if the probability for each runner is the same.

As you can see, this can get confusing. What if you are using a horse at 2-1 and a horse at 6-1? Obviously, the chances of the 2-1 runner of winning are much better than of the 6-1 runner. So a quinella and exacta box would not have the same value because if the 6-1 wins, the exacta will be much higher, but there is a lower probability of that happening.

The idea of value may well come down to your own handicapping skill and what you think the probability is for each result. Just playing the board and determining fair odds for exactas is risky business. When it comes to the choice of whether to play an exacta or quinella, if the horses are at about the same odds, then the quinella should pay roughly half of what either exacta combination pays. If you find a wide disparity in the payoffs, you may have found an excellent opportunity for betting.
Click to expand...
 
Gandolf said:
Fundamental question - how does a sloppy track affect a race? Is it naturally slower so the speed horse can hold up longer? Or do you just adjust the splits because its tougher to run? And how will horses react with mud getting kicked into their face for 3/4 of a mile? Do they naturally try to push their pace to the front and wear down quicker?

Intuitively I think front running horses have the edge in the slop. Is that true?
Click to expand...

I usually just check to see if the horse has experience running on a sloppy track, and how the horse fared on a sloppy track. Freisan Fire ran very well on it.
 
Basically, my two money picks are 6 and 15. I like 19 despite the Dubai connection. No horse has fared well coming from overseas, but the horse has dominated, and the trend could break. I like 1 because I think he'll break through the clutter early on the inside. He could hold on to make a late push. 12 is the sympathetic story of the race. He beat 5 in a previous race at 14-1. He could enter the money at a nice price 20-1.
 
tigercub said:
good luck man. :cheers:
Click to expand...

Thanks. I actually would have liked to do a few more super's, but someone else was putting the bets in for me, and I was kinda rushed.

My fav 5 are:

#1 west side bernie
#6 friesan fire*
#12 general quarters
#15 dunkirk
#19 desert party
 
ok, not the best of workouts, but i like the post position. will have a clear path to just run its race.

going with the 9 GAME FACE in the 9th. $40 to win.

2 for 2 at this distance. 2-1-0 in 3 starts at churchill. 2-0-1 in 3 starts on wet dirt.


some good horses in this race, but i think the 9 is the best.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
Hows the weather and track? Im not watching.
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still very wet.

they said the track would improve later in the day. but i cant see a difference. i was flipping back and forth in between races to the caps-pens game, but from what i see it is still a sloppy track.
 
Hows the weather and track? Im not watching.

Yeah, that track's not going to change. It's wet. Not raining, but there's no wind and no sun, but it's going to be wet.

Apparently inside speed is what's winning today.
 
Pinny has matchups for certain horses during the race, any stick out to any of you guys who know about this

Matchups: Kentucky Derby
Sat 5/2 Race 11: Dunkirk vs Pioneerof the Nile
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 399 Dunkirk -121 Risk To Win
400 Pioneerof The Nile +105 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : West Side Bernie vs Mr. Hot Stuff
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 401 West Side Bernie -109 Risk To Win
402 Mr. Hot Stuff -107 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Musket Man vs Chocolate Candy
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 403 Musket Man +127 Risk To Win
404 Chocolate Candy -145 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Friesan Fire vs Pioneerof The Nile
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 407 Friesan Fire -131 Risk To Win
408 Pioneerof The Nile +115 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Advice vs Summer Bird
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 411 Advice +106 Risk To Win
412 Summer Bird -122 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Mine That Bird vs Nowhere To Hide
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 413 Mine That Bird +148 Risk To Win
414 Nowhere To Hide -168 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Papa Clem vs Desert Party
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 416 Papa Clem +118 Risk To Win
417 Desert Party -134 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Hold Me Back vs General Quarters
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 418 Hold Me Back -142 Risk To Win
419 General Quarters +124 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Atomic Rain vs Flying Private
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 420 Atomic Rain -108 Risk To Win
421 Flying Private -108 Risk To Win
 
guaranteeed said:
Pinny has matchups for certain horses during the race, any stick out to any of you guys who know about this

Matchups: Kentucky Derby
Sat 5/2 Race 11: Dunkirk vs Pioneerof the Nile
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 399 Dunkirk -121 Risk To Win
400 Pioneerof The Nile +105 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : West Side Bernie vs Mr. Hot Stuff
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 401 West Side Bernie -109 Risk To Win
402 Mr. Hot Stuff -107 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Musket Man vs Chocolate Candy
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 403 Musket Man +127 Risk To Win
404 Chocolate Candy -145 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Friesan Fire vs Pioneerof The Nile
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 407 Friesan Fire -131 Risk To Win
408 Pioneerof The Nile +115 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Advice vs Summer Bird
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 411 Advice +106 Risk To Win
412 Summer Bird -122 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Mine That Bird vs Nowhere To Hide
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 413 Mine That Bird +148 Risk To Win
414 Nowhere To Hide -168 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Papa Clem vs Desert Party
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 416 Papa Clem +118 Risk To Win
417 Desert Party -134 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Hold Me Back vs General Quarters
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 418 Hold Me Back -142 Risk To Win
419 General Quarters +124 Risk To Win

Sat 5/2 Race 11 : Atomic Rain vs Flying Private
Maximum Wager: 3400.86 CAD
03:15 PM 420 Atomic Rain -108 Risk To Win
421 Flying Private -108 Risk To Win
Click to expand...

I really like Dunkirk in that matchup vs. PON. But at -121, your better off just betting the race normally. I mentioned the battle between General Quarters and Hold Me Back. GQ beat Hold Me Back in their last meeting. I think both of these horses are being bet. Both of their #'s are dropping.
 
I also like West Side Bernie -109. Mr Hot Stuff lacks dirt experience, and now your asking him to compete on a sloppy track. OUCH!
 
damn. thought i had the 9-7 ex during the turn for home. i've been taken to the cleaners today haha. ill leave the rest of my bets for the 10th and 11th. prob. add more on te 11th, if i hit in the 10th.

race 10

$20 WPS on the 3

$5 ex box 3-6-10


race 11

$5 ex box 5-10-11-18

$10 WPS on the 15


good luck everyone
 
The fact that NBC was going to cut away from a potential overtime game between Washington and Pittsburgh to cover what hat paris hilton is going to wear and have the chick from Access Hollywood interview F list celebrities is funny
 
tigercub said:
damn. thought i had the 9-7 ex during the turn for home. i've been taken to the cleaners today haha. ill leave the rest of my bets for the 10th and 11th. prob. add more on te 11th, if i hit in the 10th.

race 10

$20 WPS on the 3

$5 ex box 3-6-10


race 11

$5 ex box 5-10-11-18

$10 WPS on the 15


good luck everyone
Click to expand...

Good luck. I turned it on now. And Im watching. I like the pot with Hammerin Hank betting haha.
 
tbone14 said:
my boys at churchill say they really liked CC and FF. i'm planning on keying them on top. i liked CC before i heard that. now, even more so.

if it's sloppy, i like FF more.

This horse loves the slop. It's in his bloodlines. His father was a mudda', his mother was a mudda'!
Click to expand...

:cheers:
Good to hear bro

Went with FF and CC for a unit.

General Quarters for 1/2 unit.

and threw $10 on nowhere to hide @ 50:1.
 
$25 to win:
6 - Friesan Fire
15 - Dunkirk

$3 exacta:
6 - Friesan Fire , 16 - Pioneerof the Nile
5 - Hold Me Back , 15 - Dunkirk

$2 exacta box:
6 - Friesan Fire, 11 - Chocolate Candy, 15 - Dunkirk
6 - Friesan Fire, 12 - General Quarters, 16 - Pioneerof the Nile
15 - Dunkirk, 16 - Pioneerof the Nile, 7 - Papa Clem
5 - Hold Me Back, 15 - Dunkirk, 12 - General Quarters


'an_horse'
 
tbone14 said:
This horse loves the slop. It's in his bloodlines. His father was a mudda', his mother was a mudda'!
Click to expand...
:36_11_6: :36_11_6:

was waiting for that all day.....


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:shake:
 
I'm keeping it simple with a small bet on FF (+375)

:cheers:
 
Adding......
Dunkirk (-125) vs. Pioneer of the Nile
Regal Ransom (+125) vs. Chocolate Candy
 
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