GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
KENTUCKY DERBY 2023
Horses are some of the most beautiful creatures in the world and there’s something majestic about them. Last year’s Kentucky Derby was absolutely inexplicable. A horse that quite frankly didn’t belong in the race, and only got in two days before the race because another horse was scratched, Rich Strike, defied the odds and logic and pulled off possibly the biggest upset in Kentucky Derby history. It was better than the movie “Rudy!” Even if you are not much of a racing fan, I implore you to watch this 9 minute video. I can’t even get through four minutes of this video without tearing up a bit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQpaecxyzKA
If you ever need more evidence of the beauty of horses, Cody’s Wish races in Saturday’s Grade 1 Churchill Downs (10th Race). If you don’t root for him and shed a happy tear from this video, “Cody Dorman and his Namesake Cody’s Wish”, you may not be human! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vtUQlJg1kU
The 2023 Kentucky Derby is a well matched and wide open race. It’s been a crazy week already with five horses already scratching (including the favorite, Forte) and three horses not originally in the race are now in. As we learned last year with Rich Strike, anyone can win the Derby. The outcome this year, like last year, will be very dependent on the early pace scenario. Last year, they went lightning fast early on and it set up for runners at the back of the pack to pass tiring horses late. This year there doesn’t seem to be a ton of early speed in the race and if they set pedestrian fractions the first 3/4s of a mile, it will make it tougher for the closers. Very interesting race. I urge you to watch some of the videos provided below to give you a better feel for some of the top contenders. Use this as a guide to decide whatever tickets you decide to build.
#1 - HIT SHOW - Speed figures have improved with each race. Won the Withers at Aqueduct with a golden ground saving trip but was ridden out strongly through stretch. Came back as the favorite in the Wood Memorial and avoided congestion early from 13 post, had a decent stalking trip while on the outside, kicked into gear in stretch but seemed uncomfortable sandwiched between two contenders and got nosed out by a 59-1 shot, Lord Miles, and settled for 2nd. Has been favored in all 5 lifetime starts but will be far from it here. One of four horses in here trained by Brad Cox. Real tough post position in a 20 horse field. Should be able to handle the distance and should get a rail hugging trip near the back of the pack. One of four Brad Cox horses in the Derby. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHFYEg2Grx0
#2 - VERIFYING - Another Brad Cox runner. Scary moment midweek as Verifying got loose while training but the outrider was able to corral him without major incident. Disappointed in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile. Has yet to win a major race. Was a solid second in the Bluegrass at Keeneland going off at 2-1 (See Tapit Trice video below). Was flanked right behind a longshot leader entering the final turn. Captured the lead and then was tackled by Tapit Trice (who had a much more difficult trip) in a powerhouse stretch duel and was beaten a head. Two back in the Grade 2 Rebel (see video in Confidence Game’s bio) was compromised in a fast pace, jammed in, had to alter course several times in the stretch and still finished strongly despite being 4th. Has good tactical early speed to avoid trouble early on. With such an inside post and his tactics, he will be forced fire out early and should be on or close to the early lead. There’s not a ton of supreme early speed horses in here. Distance could be a concern but he’s definitely one to consider. If the pace is moderate and he’s on or near the lead, he will be a major factor.
#3 - TWO PHIL’S - Many struggling to figure out why this horse has an apostrophe in his name. LOL. Steadily improving horse from Louisiana. Won the Grade 3 Street Sense on this Churchill track in October in the slop by 5 1/4 lengths. Won the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park on a synthetic surface with an excellent speed figure, handily by 5 1/4 lengths, 3 wide around both turns after failing to hold the lead previously in the Grade 2 Risen Star where he made an early move but was beaten by both Angel of Empire and Sun Thunder in the longer stretch at the Fairgrounds. Prior to the win in his last race, his speed figures were too slow but he made a gigantic leap on the synthetic surface to the point that the single race figure is the top Beyer Speed Rating of anyone in this race. Will that translate to the Churchill dirt surface? Last year’s shocking Derby winner, Rich Strike, came into the race from Turfway Park as did 2011 winner, Animal Kingdom. Mid-pack horse needs to avoid traffic and time his move correctly; with the right trip. could contend. Low profile jockey, Jareth Loveberry tackles the big boys. Minor point: Take note that yesterday, Botanical in the Kentucky Oaks came in from the Turfway synthetic surface to Churchill and finished 13th. Can’t completely ignore Phil off the eye popping figure last out on the synthetic surface but his dirt figures make him a minor player. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCnmyLiOUdY
#4 - CONFIDENCE GAME - Coming in off a 70 day layoff after winning the Grade 2 Rebel on a wet track in what was by far his best race but came off a perfect pace setup. Tried new tactics in that race coming from behind. That figure wasn’t even fast enough to win this and his other races don’t make him even close to a contender. Race allegedly took a lot out of him to cause the layoff. Not horrible but tough for me to use. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwsFZHnPzWA
#5 - TAPIT TRICE - A seven figure yearling purchase, who hasn’t disappointed with 4 wins in 5 races and $883,000 in the bank. His speed figures have improved in each race but he has a propensity of somewhat slow starts and wide trips. Won the Bluegrass last out despite being 4 wide across the backstretch and entering the final turn before engaging in an exciting two horse stretch duel with Hit Show, ultimately winning by a neck. His sheet figure in the Bluegrass is the best in the best sheet figure in the field. However, you have to go back to 1991 for the last time the Bluegrass winner won the Derby. He’s quirky yet very talented but his mid-race acceleration is average and because of that, he’s the type who needs to swing wide to go around horses to avoid traffic. Not a great draw for him as he doesn’t seem to like to be inside of horses. He’s definitely a contender but I’d like him better if this was the mile and a half Belmont Stakes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKqnUh8rHjs
#6 - KINGSBARNS - Undefeated in three lifetime starts. Has to overcome the “Curse of Apollo” as only two horses (Justified did it) since Apollo in 1882 have won the Kentucky Derby having not run as a two year old. Has to improve to win. Wired the field in the Louisiana Derby. Shot right to the lead, set a slow pace, 1:14:69 for 6 furlongs and pulled away to an easy win. It was impressive but it couldn’t have been gift wrapped any better for him. Has good tactical early speed but has also won from off the pace his first two times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Du6qP0gWHvA
#7 - REINCARNATE - Pushed the pace last out in the Arkansas Derby, a field which to me wasn’t overly impressive and he came up empty late. This race is a an 1/8th mile longer. Looks like he may have digressed slightly since switching from Bob Baffert two races ago. Only has one figure that would come anywhere close to the top horses here and that was a win in the Grade 3 Sham in California where he pretty much went wire to wire in a 5 horse field. Should be part of the early pace and if the pace is moderate, he could get a piece. Velasquez has won 3 Derbies.
#8 - MAGE - Another with the curse of Apollo having not raced a two year old. Broke slowly in the Grade 2 Fountain of the Youth, rushed up quickly 5-wide into the first turn, was 3 wide the entire backstretch sitting 4th, got bumped and compromised in the stretch, finished decently but lost by 6 3/4 lengths and was no match for Forte, who had a much better trip. After slow start and sitting last in the Grade 1 Florida Derby (see Forte video), made a premature eye-popping move around the run to seize the lead but got rundown late by Forte and lost by a length. Switches back to Javier Castellano. Needs a cleaner start and better timing of his powerful move. Definitely a wild card today.
#9 - SKINNER - SCRATCHED
#10 - PRACTICAL MOVE - SCRATCHED
Horses are some of the most beautiful creatures in the world and there’s something majestic about them. Last year’s Kentucky Derby was absolutely inexplicable. A horse that quite frankly didn’t belong in the race, and only got in two days before the race because another horse was scratched, Rich Strike, defied the odds and logic and pulled off possibly the biggest upset in Kentucky Derby history. It was better than the movie “Rudy!” Even if you are not much of a racing fan, I implore you to watch this 9 minute video. I can’t even get through four minutes of this video without tearing up a bit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQpaecxyzKA
If you ever need more evidence of the beauty of horses, Cody’s Wish races in Saturday’s Grade 1 Churchill Downs (10th Race). If you don’t root for him and shed a happy tear from this video, “Cody Dorman and his Namesake Cody’s Wish”, you may not be human! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vtUQlJg1kU
The 2023 Kentucky Derby is a well matched and wide open race. It’s been a crazy week already with five horses already scratching (including the favorite, Forte) and three horses not originally in the race are now in. As we learned last year with Rich Strike, anyone can win the Derby. The outcome this year, like last year, will be very dependent on the early pace scenario. Last year, they went lightning fast early on and it set up for runners at the back of the pack to pass tiring horses late. This year there doesn’t seem to be a ton of early speed in the race and if they set pedestrian fractions the first 3/4s of a mile, it will make it tougher for the closers. Very interesting race. I urge you to watch some of the videos provided below to give you a better feel for some of the top contenders. Use this as a guide to decide whatever tickets you decide to build.
#1 - HIT SHOW - Speed figures have improved with each race. Won the Withers at Aqueduct with a golden ground saving trip but was ridden out strongly through stretch. Came back as the favorite in the Wood Memorial and avoided congestion early from 13 post, had a decent stalking trip while on the outside, kicked into gear in stretch but seemed uncomfortable sandwiched between two contenders and got nosed out by a 59-1 shot, Lord Miles, and settled for 2nd. Has been favored in all 5 lifetime starts but will be far from it here. One of four horses in here trained by Brad Cox. Real tough post position in a 20 horse field. Should be able to handle the distance and should get a rail hugging trip near the back of the pack. One of four Brad Cox horses in the Derby. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHFYEg2Grx0
#2 - VERIFYING - Another Brad Cox runner. Scary moment midweek as Verifying got loose while training but the outrider was able to corral him without major incident. Disappointed in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile. Has yet to win a major race. Was a solid second in the Bluegrass at Keeneland going off at 2-1 (See Tapit Trice video below). Was flanked right behind a longshot leader entering the final turn. Captured the lead and then was tackled by Tapit Trice (who had a much more difficult trip) in a powerhouse stretch duel and was beaten a head. Two back in the Grade 2 Rebel (see video in Confidence Game’s bio) was compromised in a fast pace, jammed in, had to alter course several times in the stretch and still finished strongly despite being 4th. Has good tactical early speed to avoid trouble early on. With such an inside post and his tactics, he will be forced fire out early and should be on or close to the early lead. There’s not a ton of supreme early speed horses in here. Distance could be a concern but he’s definitely one to consider. If the pace is moderate and he’s on or near the lead, he will be a major factor.
#3 - TWO PHIL’S - Many struggling to figure out why this horse has an apostrophe in his name. LOL. Steadily improving horse from Louisiana. Won the Grade 3 Street Sense on this Churchill track in October in the slop by 5 1/4 lengths. Won the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park on a synthetic surface with an excellent speed figure, handily by 5 1/4 lengths, 3 wide around both turns after failing to hold the lead previously in the Grade 2 Risen Star where he made an early move but was beaten by both Angel of Empire and Sun Thunder in the longer stretch at the Fairgrounds. Prior to the win in his last race, his speed figures were too slow but he made a gigantic leap on the synthetic surface to the point that the single race figure is the top Beyer Speed Rating of anyone in this race. Will that translate to the Churchill dirt surface? Last year’s shocking Derby winner, Rich Strike, came into the race from Turfway Park as did 2011 winner, Animal Kingdom. Mid-pack horse needs to avoid traffic and time his move correctly; with the right trip. could contend. Low profile jockey, Jareth Loveberry tackles the big boys. Minor point: Take note that yesterday, Botanical in the Kentucky Oaks came in from the Turfway synthetic surface to Churchill and finished 13th. Can’t completely ignore Phil off the eye popping figure last out on the synthetic surface but his dirt figures make him a minor player. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCnmyLiOUdY
#4 - CONFIDENCE GAME - Coming in off a 70 day layoff after winning the Grade 2 Rebel on a wet track in what was by far his best race but came off a perfect pace setup. Tried new tactics in that race coming from behind. That figure wasn’t even fast enough to win this and his other races don’t make him even close to a contender. Race allegedly took a lot out of him to cause the layoff. Not horrible but tough for me to use. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwsFZHnPzWA
#5 - TAPIT TRICE - A seven figure yearling purchase, who hasn’t disappointed with 4 wins in 5 races and $883,000 in the bank. His speed figures have improved in each race but he has a propensity of somewhat slow starts and wide trips. Won the Bluegrass last out despite being 4 wide across the backstretch and entering the final turn before engaging in an exciting two horse stretch duel with Hit Show, ultimately winning by a neck. His sheet figure in the Bluegrass is the best in the best sheet figure in the field. However, you have to go back to 1991 for the last time the Bluegrass winner won the Derby. He’s quirky yet very talented but his mid-race acceleration is average and because of that, he’s the type who needs to swing wide to go around horses to avoid traffic. Not a great draw for him as he doesn’t seem to like to be inside of horses. He’s definitely a contender but I’d like him better if this was the mile and a half Belmont Stakes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKqnUh8rHjs
#6 - KINGSBARNS - Undefeated in three lifetime starts. Has to overcome the “Curse of Apollo” as only two horses (Justified did it) since Apollo in 1882 have won the Kentucky Derby having not run as a two year old. Has to improve to win. Wired the field in the Louisiana Derby. Shot right to the lead, set a slow pace, 1:14:69 for 6 furlongs and pulled away to an easy win. It was impressive but it couldn’t have been gift wrapped any better for him. Has good tactical early speed but has also won from off the pace his first two times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Du6qP0gWHvA
#7 - REINCARNATE - Pushed the pace last out in the Arkansas Derby, a field which to me wasn’t overly impressive and he came up empty late. This race is a an 1/8th mile longer. Looks like he may have digressed slightly since switching from Bob Baffert two races ago. Only has one figure that would come anywhere close to the top horses here and that was a win in the Grade 3 Sham in California where he pretty much went wire to wire in a 5 horse field. Should be part of the early pace and if the pace is moderate, he could get a piece. Velasquez has won 3 Derbies.
#8 - MAGE - Another with the curse of Apollo having not raced a two year old. Broke slowly in the Grade 2 Fountain of the Youth, rushed up quickly 5-wide into the first turn, was 3 wide the entire backstretch sitting 4th, got bumped and compromised in the stretch, finished decently but lost by 6 3/4 lengths and was no match for Forte, who had a much better trip. After slow start and sitting last in the Grade 1 Florida Derby (see Forte video), made a premature eye-popping move around the run to seize the lead but got rundown late by Forte and lost by a length. Switches back to Javier Castellano. Needs a cleaner start and better timing of his powerful move. Definitely a wild card today.
#9 - SKINNER - SCRATCHED
#10 - PRACTICAL MOVE - SCRATCHED
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