Maximum Security such a hard horse to get a read on, and as mentioned by CPA the training methods of Jason Servis does not help figure out the puzzle. Made debut in a 16k maiden claiming race which is the bottom level maiden at Gulfstream, which indicates connections did not think much of him early on. He then runs in 2 starter allowances, meaning the horses entered in these races had to have been previously entered for a $50k claiming price or less, so again far from top competition, and I'd be willing to say that every horse entered in this race would have won all 3 of those races.
That brings us to the Florida Derby, the key to this race was the favorite Hidden Scroll was criticized for going way to fast in his previous race and falling back to finish 3rd. So his connections were intent on rating in the FL Derby, that turned out to be the wrong tactics here again as it allowed Maximum Security to set soft early pace over a speed favoring Gulfstream Park surface, he did finish strong however and no one was ever a threat to him.
He's never raced around other horses having run in 2 short fields and also being alone on the lead. Although he's always been in the lead the pace at which he's gotten those leads indicate that he will not be alone on the lead in this race, although the scratch of Omaha Beach probably helps with that.
That brings us to this morning and his 'breeze' and his other works coming into this race which are almost mind boggling, :54.4 4F on 4/13, :42 3F on 4/21, and :53.4 4F on 4/29 all at Palm Meadows in FL, those times are ridiculously slow and a few seconds slower than his previous works. Servis has been the hottest trainer in the country, winning at a 31% clip for the year, but does pick up many of those wins at the lower levels of racing he is not above some trickery, I would not be surprised if there were untimed works that were much better that did not appear on any clocker reports. Breeding doesn't really suggest he wants to go 10F but as mentioned did finish strong at 9F in FL derby.
I will defensively in a few tickets but will let this horse beat me for the most part.
