Kentucky Derby 2021

Gandolf

Gandolf

Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Well this one is certainly sneaking up on us. Looking forward to a little more normal event this year after last year's 2nd leg of the Crown and the prior year's bizarre disqualification. In fact, its been 5 years since we've had a fast track Derby run in May. Which brings to mind the first rule of Derby: When it rains the money flows, literally no result is too strange to not consider. The 2019 Derby was obviously wild, but the 2018 race on a sloppy track featured the longest shot on the board cracking the superfecta, and on a wet sealed track in 2017 the place and show horses were both higher than 30-1.

2nd rule of Derby: toss the foreign entrants. This year the UAE Derby winner is not coming, but the 2nd place finisher Panadol might. Panadol was 5 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Panadol is not coming, so no foreign entrants this year.

For now we have to handicap assuming we'll see a fast track. Lets start with a rundown of the Derby preps that led to the current list of entrants to see who's coming out of which race. I'll note the pace rating at the 2nd call (6 furlongs) and the winning BRIS speed:

SA Derby: pace +8, winner 102, Rock Your World by 4 lengths over Medina Spirit, 6 over Dream Shake
Blue Grass: pace -8, winner 102 - Essential Quality by a neck over Highly Motivated
Fl Derby: pace -10, winner 101 - Known Agenda by 3 lengths over Soup and Sandwich
Risen Star: pace +9, winner 100 - Mandaloun won, then was 6th in La Derby
Ark Derby: pace +11, winner 97 - Super Stock by 2 lengths over Caddo River, Concert Tour
La Derby: pace -1, winner 96 - Hot Rod Charlie by 2 lengths over Midnight Bourbon
JR Steaks (on all-weather track): pace +3, winner 94 - Like the King by a length over Sainthood, Hockey Dad
Wood Mem: pace -2, winner 94 - Bourbonic by a head over Dynamic One
Tampa Derby: pace +3, winner 93 - Helium by a length over Hidden Stash
Lexington (sloppy): pace +7, winner 95 - King Fury won and will draw into the Derby

With these youngsters its a positive to run fast speeds (100+) and preferably with a fast pace. Conversely we'll need to note horses that showed an ability to make up ground in the stretch, especially in the slower paced races. Over the next two weeks we'll start breaking things down horse by horse.
 
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Here is the current anticipated field for the race:

1. Essential Quality (Brad Cox/Luis Saez) 140 points
2. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill/Flavien Prat) 110
3. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana) 109
4. Like the King (Wesley Ward/Drayden Van Dyke) 104
5. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 102
6. Rock Your World (John Sadler/Joel Rosario) 100
7. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher/Kendrick Carmouche) 100
8. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 74
9. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith) 66
10. Mandaloun (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) 52
11. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) 50
12. Helium (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 50
13. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) 40
14. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 40
15. Sainthood (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 40
16. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver/Rafael Bejarano) 32
17. Dream Shake (Peter Eurton/TBA) 30
18. O Besos (Greg Foley/Macellino Pedroza) 25
19. Get Her Number (Peter Miller/TBA) 20
20. King Fury (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20
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21. Hockey Dad (Doug O'Neill) 20
22. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro) 18

Caddo River is eligible for Brad Cox but is doubtful.

Baffert was thought to have several potential candidates early in the year but his options have wittled down to one, and not his best. Meanwhile Todd Pletcher didn't look like he'd have any contenders early in the year but came away with four earning their way into the field. Brad Cox will have the favorite in Essential Quality and another promising contender in Mandaloun. And Peter Miller, more known for trainer stakes winner sprinters, gets a Derby entry this year.

As currently constructed this race looks like it could have some decent pace, although Caddo River passing is a big hit to a fast pace. E (early) horses include Midnight Bourbon and Medina Spirit, while Rock Your World, Soup and Sandwich and Mandaloun all like to get out of the gate fast and track close to the lead. This race appears to have a limited number of solid closers with Hidden Stash, Bourbonic and O Besos being the more likely candidates.
 
Lets start with the early speed horses (pace and Quirin speed points in parentheses):

- Caddo River (E8) - A major speed factor now that he's confirmed to run, was the controlling speed and set quick fractions in the Ark Derby before getting reeled in by Super Stock, still hung on for 2nd over Concert Tour. Has had three of his six races where he couldn't make the lead: Maiden race 1 - 2nd, Maiden race 2 - 2nd, the Rebel Stakes - broke in 2nd and faded to 5th. His two wins include his maiden breaker at Churchill, and in both efforts he had an uncontested lead, got brave as the race went on and won going away. Has never faced a field of more than 9, so post, break and that first run down the Churchill stretch are going to be vitally important to him. I would expect pressure from Midnight Bourbon and Medina Spirit over the first six furlongs, so the pace is likely to get pretty hot. The horse has run no worse than 2nd in his four +pace races, so he can handle it, but it'll be tough staying ahead of the other contenders in the stretch. Of the 3 E horses, I think he's the best mainly because he's the most likely to run his race. Might use him a little.

- Midnight Bourbon (E8) - a hard tryer, sat right off Hot Rod Charlie's flank at the front of the La Derby field but could never reel him in. Dueled a bit with longshot Rightandjust in a quick Risen Star (+9 pace) before succumbing in the stretch to Mandaloun and Proxy. Beat those same two the race before when he had his own way in a much slower pace (-6). Has melted lengths in the stretch in 6 of his 7 races, all at a mile or longer. Speed figures are a little behind 7 or 8 others in the field. Hard to see a scenario where he doesn't over exert himself on or near the front end and then fades a bit in the stretch. As I said, he's a tryer, never worse than 3rd in any race yet, so maybe he could hang onto a 3rd or 4th place finish but I doubt I'll be using him much.

- Medina Spirit (E7) - Baffert's sole entry this year, so expect him to be overbet. He's good horse though, won his maiden at first asking, then ran a competitive 2nd to early Derby favorite Life is Good in the Sham, then sent Hot Rod Charlie off to Louisiana by beating him in the Robert Lewis in wire to wire fashion. Lost again to Life is Good by a big margin, then couldn't keep up with a front running Rock Your World in the SA Derby, losing as the favorite by 4 lengths. Horse has passed two horses in five races in his career, so he's definitely a need the lead type. But it's not sure that he'll get it on May 1. Similar to Midnight Bourbon in that he'll be near the front for a good mile but in that last quarter there will likely be some ground lost. But he's also never been worse than 2nd, so he too could hang around for a piece.

Those are the three true need the lead horses running. The old saying of two's company, three's a crowd has some merit in horse racing. Three battling for the lead improves the chances of a fast pace and possible meltdown significantly.

Next up will be a whole bunch of early pressers that will be battling for position in the first quarter mile and tussling with each other and the leaders along the backstretch. This is where the fun starts.
 
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Some interesting trainer/jockey pairings for sure

Like Super Stock initially but don't believe we'll see some massive favorite like usual so if you like Essential Quality it should still pay decently I believe
 
Horse Racing Nation has Essential Quality at 5/2, which for the Derby is a substantial favorite but if someone loves him its a bargain. I think Medina Spirit will be closer to 10-1 due to the Baffert factor, and Hot Rod Charlie closer to 8-1. @KJ you'll love their price on Super Stock, its 30-1(!).

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Caddo River?

Can't believe they don't have Asmussen/Ricardo at less than 30/1
 
Yeah they seem a little behind in their current field. According to Steve Byk, Brad Cox is leaning towards the Preakness with Caddo River. Byk is on top of this stuff.
 
Early Pressers - Part One

- Rock Your World (EP7) - Horse burst into the Triple Crown discussion by beating Medina Spirit and Dream Shake as the 5/1 third choice in wire to wire fashion, with a +8 pace and pulling away in the stretch. Impressive stuff. Before that race were two wins on the turf, including the 1M Pasadena where he tracked within a length of a good pace and then kicked past and gone in the stretch. So he's got the speed to be near the front but also knows how to pass horses. His minus is that he's only had 3 races on his career, so he's still learning, although he won his debut from the 8 post in a 12 horse field, so he's even got big field experience. Gets Rosario back on him; he rode RYW to his maiden win, so there's familiarity there too. Justify kinda threw all the caveats about lightly raced horses out the window a few years ago, so no reason to discount him from that standpoint. Trainer Sadler is even winning outside of Cali now, so there aren't really any excuses for this one. Should be a win contender all the way to the end.

- Soup and Sandwich (EP7) - Another 3 race starter, this one out of new HOFer Mark Casse's barn. Was allowed to lead the FL Derby with a slow -10 pace, yet yielded the lead on the far turn to Known Agenda, although he held on to 2nd. Still a bit green, ran down the stretch on the wrong lead, so there may be room for improvement. Other than that, he had an inauspicious start winning a state-bred maiden race by open lengths, then won a decent optional claimer where the runner was a next out winner. He'll need to take that next step forward to be competitive, and he lost Velazquez as the rider for Tyler Gaffalione, which is a bit of a hit. Nothing really buzzing about him yet, a lot will depend on the draw and how much work he'll need to do to get into a good stalking position and whether he'll have enough in the tank late. Right now he seems like the kind that will work hard to be 5th or 6th on the backstretch then fades to 10th or 12th. One of three Into Mischief colts in the field (Mandaloun and Highly Motivated are the others), as was last year's winner Authentic, which is pretty damn impressive.
 
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Early Pressers - Part Two

- Helium (EP6) - The other three race starter coming out of Casse's barn (at least he's consistent), won the Tampa Bay Derby almost two months ago over Hidden Stash as a 15/1 upset. The race had a solid pace, and Helium moved into contention on the backstretch after a slow start, grabbing the lead on the far turn and holding off his challenger the full length of the stretch. The run was better than the relatively slow number as Helium went 5 wide while making his move. However, Hidden Stash didn't flatter race by finishing a distant 4th in the Blue Grass. Historically a two month layoff before the Derby is a negative. But he's working well and has improved his figures in each race so far, so he's moving in the right direction. His first two races were both wins on the Tapeta at Woodbine, which isn't a negative on the deep Churchill surface. Will be a big price, and if he starts the way he did in Tampa he'll be left with too much to do. Leaning against using unless the track is wet.

- Highly Motivated (EP6) - Chad Brown entry with some of the best speed numbers entering the Derby, the only horse with three 100+ figures, although the first two were at one turn. Just missed in his debut at Saratoga last summer on a muddy track, then came back as the odds on favorite and won, beating FL Derby winner Known Agenda. Raised his game in the fall with an easy stakes win at Keeneland, which made him the early NY favorite in the Gotham. But he bobbled at the start surrendering ground to eventual winner Weyburn and runner up Crowded Trade before finishing 3rd and showing a bit of a closing kick. Things looked good for him in the Blue Grass as he broke well, established a leading position and led a slowish pace, but was tracked down by Essential Quality in a terrific stretch run. He's good enough to run with the best. If he's over his poor starts he could be very dangerous. If he's not he could take himself and a couple of other out with him from the jump. Will need to see where he's posted and who's alongside before making a final decision, but for now he's a win contender that should be 6/1 or higher, which is a square price.

- Sainthood (EP5) - Has worked his way into the field with the defections, is one of the Pletcher Four. Only three races but he's a traveler, missing by a head in his debut at Gulfstream, then winning in wire to wire fashion by a diminishing nose at Fairgrounds with Velazquez as the rider. I think its telling that Pletcher shipped this maiden winner to the Turfway stake instead of one of the larger ones, but I'll be damned, he survived a rough trip and was closing hard on Like the King only to fall about a length short. He'll need to improve for this one and lose some of the greenness he's shown to date. There's better Pletchers to consider, he'll likely be a toss unless the track gets sloppy.
 
Early Pressers - Part Three

- Essential Quality (EP4) - Will be the clear favorite, and with good reason. He's 5 for 5 with four grades stakes wins, a pair each at 2 and 3. His speed numbers are right at the top of the list (along with Rock Your World and Highly Motivated), with his 2021 top already exceeding his 2020 top. He has won on fast tracks and sloppy conditions, at three different tracks including Churchill. His trainer is red hot. And this horse knows how to finish. Here are his positions at the top of the stretch and the finish line:

Blue Grass: 2nd by 1/2 length, winner by a neck
Southwest: leading by 2 1/2 lengths, winner by 4 1/4 lengths
BC Juvy: 4th, 2 lengths back, winner by 3/4 length
Futurity: leading by 2 1/2 lengths, winner by 3 1/4 lengths
Maiden: 2nd by 1 lengths, winner by 4 lengths

If this guy is in position to win, he does. Son of Tapit, so distance shouldn't be an issue. Hard to see him not in the mix at the end unless he draws a horrid post or gets wiped out at the break, and he's even overcome a rocky start at the Blue Grass. Not afraid of being 6th or 8th midway through the race if the pace is cooking, which is where he was in the Juvenile. Will need to use on most if not all tickets.

- Super Stock (EP4) - Asmussen family horse, owned by Keith, trained by Steve, the veteran in the field with 8 races under his belt (but only 2 wins). Started out his career with an awful turf race, then went to Lone Star and almost won a maiden sprint. Somehow that gave Asmussen the courage to run him in a sprint stake, where the horse exploded and won by 3 1/2 lengths going away. After that it was the triple crown trail and mile+ races....3rd in a Grade 3 at Churchill, 3 in the Futurity that Essential Quality won, 2nd to King Fury in another Churchill stake, a traffic laden 4th in the Rebel at Oaklawn......then BANG! Tracking in the 2 path a couple of lengths behind Caddo River and Concert Tour in the Ark Derby, he shifts out heading into the stretch and mows them both down at 12/1. The pace ended up being the fastest of all the major preps, so running down the leaders from 3rd place was impressive but also expected. To that end, we're still not sure this horse is all that good. He's been 8/1 or higher in five of his eight races, and only won the Derby. He's been 4/1 or lower three times but only won once. Despite the strong close in the Derby, in his previous four efforts he actually lost ground to the winner down the stretch. Is he fast enough early to get into a good position so he doesn't have to close like Silky Sullivan? Well, his Quirin points would suggest he'll be sitting around mid pack. The race just doesn't seem to fit his running style, I have a hard time finding a winning scenario for him.
 
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Early Pressers - Part 4 - At this point we're nine horses in and the group that generally sits just off the leaders is starting to get crowded. Also note that most of these horse have only seen maybe one race in their career with a field size of 10 or more. Now we've got a field of 20 to deal with. Mid-pack is no longer 5th place within 3 lengths of the lead, now its 10th place and 6 lengths back. That's a big difference and a lot of the horses from here on are going to be compromised to a certain degree. Either they're going to have a work out a great trip through traffic, or they're going to start faster than they're accustomed too (and burn more energy early than they want) or they're going to spin their wheels for much of the race.

- Like the King (EP4) - the 7/1 winner of the Jeff Ruby, rallied big into an above average pace to go from 7th at 6 furlongs to 3rd rounding the turn to a one length win at the wire. Before that win he had always stayed less than two lengths off the pace, so Drayden Van Dyke got this guy to show some new skill. He's 0 for 2 on traditional dirt, his three wins have come on all-weather and turf courses, and the level of competition he's faced is a couple of notches below most of the others in the field, but he did improve last out and Churchill track plays fair to horses coming out of turf and all-weather races (I go back to Animal Kingdom winning at about 22/1 after racing at Turfway), especially if it gets wet. Ward is also not known for training for the classics, he's more a sprinter/2 YO expert. Probably not a player on a fast track, but watch for any workout buzz just in case.

- Dynamic One (EP4) - Was just a couple of jumps from pulling off his own Wood upset at 15/1 before getting nailed by longshot Bourbonic. Seems like the light bulb went on for him after finally breaking his maiden on the 4th try. He has an bad habit of flattening out late in the game: lost his 2nd maiden effort despite having the lead all the way around the far turn; rallied to within a neck of the leader on the turn in his 3rd maiden race only to flatten out and finish two lengths back, and then losing the lead at the Wood. Losing ground in the stretch in 4 out of 5 races is not a good statistic for a horse that prefers to attack from mid-pack. His last two races are better than his first three, and he does have Pletcher watching him, so there are some positives, but he's never faced a fast pace so if he's flattening out now I hate to see how that would impact him. Not anticipating using much.

- Hot Rod Charlie (EP3) - Another horse that took four tries before breaking his maiden, but since that win he's had a close 2nd in the BC Juvy (AT 94/1!), a bad trip 3rd by a neck in the Robert Lewis, and then survived some bumping at the break to wire the field at the La Derby. His 3 Quirin speed points seem artificially low based a slow start at the Juvy, I would expect him to be around 5th or 6th on the clubhouse turn, not 10th or 12th. He's been pretty sharp since getting off turf and going two turns, finishing no worse than 3rd in quality races and within a length of the winner every time. He's got Indian Charlie in the pedigree, which makes some wonder if he's more suited as a miler, but he's also the son of Oxbow, who held on for sixth in the Derby after tracking Palace Malice's 2nd fastest half mile in Derby history, then used the incredible fitness he had built up to pull off a 15/1 upset two weeks later in the Preakness. Doug O'Neill is back as the trainer of record after a recent suspension, and he knows a thing or to about getting ready for the Derby. There's a lot to like about this horse and the price is going to be quite juicy. Will be using a good bit on tickets.

- Get Her Number (EP3) - I love this horse......not because he's very good, although he did win a Grade 1 in 2020, but because he's finished out of the money in both 2021 he's basically a throwback to the days before the Derby points system. Before the points system started in 2013 horses were ranked by graded stakes earnings, regardless of whether they were sprints, on turf, as 2 YOs, etc. You'd see the winner of the 7f Swale get his ticket punched, and the winner of the Delta Jackpot for 2YOs (I'm sure Twink remembers the Delta Jackpot), and these were usually horses you could discount because their recent form wasn't anywhere close to when they were winning these expensive races. Anyways, Get Her Number had a pretty good summer in 2020, breaking his maiden out of the box in a 5 furlong sprint, then getting beat late in the Delmar Juvy Turf, before winning the American Pharoah in late September. A physical setback kept him out of the Breeders Cup and it took Peter Miller (more known for training sprinters) until March to get the horse into a race, the grade 2 Rebel. He didn't show much. His Ark Derby run was better, he ran four wide for the most part and finished fourth. Is he ready to take another jump forward third off the layoff to get back to his 2YO form? I tend to doubt it. Rombar was closing in on him in the Pharoah and another 1/16th probably would've sunk him. He also runs his best right near the lead, and nothing this year has suggested he will get there on May 1. I don't see him getting much action from me.
 
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So Caddo River IS going to run in the Derby, which is a major boost to the pace in the race.

Caddo River boots King Fury to the AEs, and Hozier is back in the mix for Baffert and moves into the first AE spot, with King Fury in the 2nd spot.
 
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Pieces keep moving.....Dream Shake is out, King Fury is back in. The current field:

1. Essential Quality (Brad Cox/Luis Saez) 140
2. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill/Flavien Prat) 110
3. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana) 109
4. Like the King (Wesley Ward/Drayden Van Dyke) 104
5. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 102
6. Rock Your World (John Sadler/Joel Rosario) 100
7. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher/Kendrick Carmouche) 100
8. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 74
9. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith) 66
10. Mandaloun (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) 52
11. Caddo River (Brad Cox/TBA) 50
12. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) 50
13. Helium (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 50
14. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) 40
15. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 40
16. Sainthood (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 40
17. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver/Rafael Bejarano) 32
18. O Besos (Greg Foley/Marcelino Pedroza) 25
19. Get Her Number (Peter Miller/TBA) 20 - FINAL DECISION TO BE MADE AFTER SATURDAY WORK
20. King Fury (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20
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21. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen) 18
22. Starrininmydreams (Dallas Stewart) 14

Among the big name jockeys looking for a mount: Eric Cancel, Manny Franco, Junior Alavarado, Paco Lopez, Umberto Rispoli. If I'm looking for a rider at this point I'd be all about getting Junior to ride.
 
It's been a revolving door the last few days. The current field as of Sunday

1. Essential Quality (Brad Cox/Luis Saez) 140
2. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill/Flavien Prat) 110
3. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana) 109
4. Like the King (Wesley Ward/Drayden Van Dyke) 104
5. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 102
6. Rock Your World (John Sadler/Joel Rosario) 100
7. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher/Kendrick Carmouche) 100
8. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 74
9. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith) 66
10. Mandaloun (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) 52
11. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) 50
12. Helium (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 50
13. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) 40
14. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 40
15. Sainthood (Todd Pletcher/Corey Lanerie) 40
16. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver/Rafael Bejarano) 32
17. O Besos (Greg Foley/Marcelino Pedroza) 25
18. King Fury (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20
19. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen) 18
20. Brooklyn Strong (Danny Velasquez/Umberto Rispoli) 10
 
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Gonna have to get updated PPs, none I've seen even have Brooklyn Strong on it, he was so far down the list.

On to the pressers; these guys are going to need the right combination of pace a trip to be a factor on Saturday.

- Mandaloun (P7) - the P and S horses with high Quirin numbers always deserve a 2nd look, especially with two and three year olds. Eventually if they're hanging back mid pack enough times that number will fall to 4 or less. Mandaloun is a horse I want to like.....his Risen Star win was a very strong performance. But for whatever reason he laid a total egg in the La Derby. Since then he's said to be working well, had a bullet work two weeks ago on the Churchill track, where he also has win. Was Fairgrounds playing to speed in the Derby? The 1-2 horses on the backstretch basically followed each other all the way around. Mandaloun had shown an ability to finish before that one. I'm inclined to give him a chance for redemption on at least a few tickets, the price will be too good to ignore.

- Known Agenda (P3) - Pletcher's best horse? Winner of the FL Derby in fairly convincing fashion over Soup and Sandwich, thanks to a strong move on the far turn against a fairly slow pace. Is an excellent finisher, maybe second only to Bourbonic, but with more tactical speed he can get placed within 3 lengths of the lead and still come with a run. Surprisingly, fast paces have been a problem (0-3 with a 2nd and 3rd), while he's 3 for 3 in slower paces. I don't think he'll see a slow pace on Saturday, so there's concern he'll just have too much left to do in the stretch to get anything more than a small piece. Will use underneath but will probably look elsewhere for the winner.

- King Fury (P3) - Just two weeks ago was sitting in 28th spot with his only points coming from his surprising win in the Lexington. Now he's in the field. Has run in a few big dances with little to show for it: Breeders Futurity (8th to Essential Quality), BC Juvy (7th to Essential Quality), Kentucky Jockey Club (5th to Keepmeinmind). Would be easy to dismiss except for 2 wins at Churchill (one over Super Stock), which is the most in the field, and how it all came together in the slop at Keeneland. He's high on my list of WTF horses should track conditions get ugly. On a fast track he'll be off the tickets.

- Bourbonic (P2) - The shocking Wood winner at 72/1, was actually offered up for claim in December. Crazy game. Came from the clouds to earn his win, against a pace that was only average, and that wasn't a fluke. He's gained ground in the stretch in all his mile+ races, which automatically puts him into exotics contention. His winning speed in the Wood was pretty slow, so I'm not a fan of his win chances, but he's dangerous in the slop. But 3rd and 4th on fast and maybe even a Looking at Lee type 2nd in the mud is not out of the question.

- Hidden Stash (P0) - The only horse in the field with zero Quirin points, which puts him in position to may enter the backstretch in last. The daunting prospect of passing maybe 19 horses in 90 seconds makes him a tough sell. On top of that his Blue Grass run was not memorable, and he seemed to hang at Tampa when it looked like he'd pull ahead and win going away. He does have a win at Churchill last year, but he doesn't seem to have improved much from age 2 to 3. His best speed number puts him in the bottom five compared to the rest of the field. Maybe worth putting on a couple of tickets to clunk up into 3rd or 4th, but he's not as good as Bourbonic or Known Agenda in making up ground. Can't see using him much at all.
 
There are two Sustainer types in the field, one that getting some buzz, one that gets no love at all:

- O Besos (S3) - Getting a lot of buzz as THE longshot closer to blow up the superfecta, was a sprinter until two races ago, when connections decided to run him in the Risen Star. Finished an OK but distant 4th. Then in the La Derby he was the one horse gaining ground in the stretch against Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon, finishing just two lengths back. He was a fantastic closer in sprints, winning two straight on the long Fairgrounds stretch. His first race was in slop at Churchill where he broke poorly but rallied from last, 14 lengths back, to finish 6th, five lengths behind the winner. So he's flashed an ability to close, his final 1/8th in his last race was 2nd only to Essentially Quality in the entire field. He's fallen short in the speed numbers, so I don't see him as a win contender, but if he can get somewhere around 14th or 15th on the backstreet he should be able to make a good run at 3rd or 4th.

- Keepmeinmind (S2) - Another of a surprising number of horses in the field who earned their points as a 2YO. Was a big player in 2020, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill last November, following a 3rd in the BC Juvenile and 2nd in the Breeders Futurity, This year has been full of disappointment, with a 6th in the Rebel and distant 5th in the Blue Grass. Speed numbers this year put him a dozen lengths behind his own BC Juvy effort. Nothing much going for him other than 3rd start off the layoff. Pass.
 
Kentucky Oaks on Friday just drew their posts. Good size field of 14 offers opportunities.

1 - Pauline's Pearl 20/1
2 - Maracuja 20/1
3 - Clairiere 5/1
4 - Crazy Beautiful 15/1
5 - Pass the Champagne 15/1
6 - Travel Column 3/1
7 - Ava's Grace 50/1
8 - Moraz 30/1
9 - Coach 50/1
10 - Malathaat 5/2 favorite
11 - Will's Secret 30/1
12 - Search Results 3/1
13 - Competitive Speed 50/1
14 - Millefeuille 20/1
 
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Field sizes for the other 5 stakes on Oaks Day:
Alysheba - 6
Eight Belles (G2) - 12
Twinspires Turf Sprint (G2) - 11
La Troienne - 7
Edgewood (G2) - 7
 
Speed horse Midnight Bourbon gets the #10, a good spot for him to blast to the front

Medina Spirit starts inside him at #8 and will hurry to keep his inside position.
 
Morning line odds

1. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6/1
2. Like the King (Wesley Ward/Drayden Van Dyke) 50/1
3. Brooklyn Strong (Danny Velasquez/Umberto Rispoli) 50/1
4. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen) 50/1
5. Sainthood (Todd Pletcher/Corey Lanerie) 50/1
6. O Besos (Greg Foley/Marcelino Pedroza) 20/1
7. Mandaloun (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) 15/1
8. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 15/1
9. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill/Flavien Prat) 8/1
10. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith) 20/1
11. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 20/1
12. Helium (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 50/1
13. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver/Rafael Bejarano) 50/1
14. Essential Quality (Brad Cox/Luis Saez) 2/1
15. Rock Your World (John Sadler/Joel Rosario) 5/1
16. King Fury (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20/1
17. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) 10/1
18. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana) 30/1
19. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) 30/1
20. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher/Kendrick Carmouche) 30/1
 
- Brooklyn Strong (EP4) - Last one in, was not even on the advance pps that go over 30 deep.....shows how many defections it took to get to this one. Earned his 10 points last year in winning the Remsen, a 9 furlong race at Aqueduct. Course was sloppy and BS took to it like a fish to water, ran 107 Bris Speed which is the HIGHEST number in the field. Started as a maiden claimer(!) and then ran NY bred stakes before his big Remsen win, so this guy has been underestimated his whole career. Had some physical issues that delayed his return to the track, made his 2021 debut at the Wood. No real surprise that off the 4 month layoff he would finish 5th in a grade 2. Now 2nd off the layoff he's almost certain to improve, but can he get back to 2020 form or better. At 50/1 I'd put him on the list of horses that will outrun his odds. Whether that's a nice 7th place run or something a little more lucrative, its hard to say. May use underneath a little.
 
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The pace projector from Timeform suggest Rock Your World will be the speed of the speed, with Medina Spirit right behind and Midnight Bourbon, Highly Motivated and Soup and Sandwich hustled along as the closest pursuers. Brooklyn Strong (#3) is listed as a deeper closer, but I think he could be closer to the pace. Dynamic One (#11) I would expect would want to be no worse than mid-pack too.

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OK, some crystalized thoughts on how these horses can run their best race. First I’ll note the weather looks very good, and in the Derby points era a fast track has meant fairly formful races, with maybe one outlier in the top four.

1. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6/1 – Inside post not the death knell it used to be with the new 20 horse gate. Was never expected to be near the front, so Irad will get him in a comfortable spot mid-pack, saving ground on the rail, setting up for an extended move on the far turn, which is basically the move he made in the FL Derby. Is also a good stretch runner, must use 2-4, maybe for the win too if you like.

2. Like the King (Wesley Ward/Drayden Van Dyke) 50/1 – Needs to make the leap from all-weather to Churchill like Animal Kingdom did. Looking to settle in top half of field, save ground, get going on the far turn and run his ass off. Numbers-wise not good enough. Pass.

3. Brooklyn Strong (Danny Velasquez/Umberto Rispoli) 50/1 – Hoping 2nd off the layoff boosts his numbers back closer to his Remsen run, and hoping his slop form translates to the cuppy Churchill dirt. Has the tactical speed hit the backstretch 6th or 7th, has good turn times to make a move and be in a great position for the stretch. Don’t think he’s a winner but he’s a sneaky use in the exotics.

4. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen) 50/1 – Stone cold closer figures to be 17-20th on the back stretch. Needs a pace meltdown to be able to pick off horses late. I think he’ll be left with too much to do for his limited talent level. Pass.

5. Sainthood (Todd Pletcher/Corey Lanerie) 50/1 – Hoping to make a leap in his fourth start, has mid-pack early speed so he’ll need to work out a better trip than he had in the Jeff Ruby and swing off the turn with momentum. A little too green for my liking. Pass.

6. O Besos (Greg Foley/Marcelino Pedroza) 20/1 – Another closer who will look to save ground early running in the back third of the field, then needs a fast paced to allow him to pass horses. Ran wide in his two turn races so far, so if he can take the kickback and save ground he might have something left in the tank late. Will use lightly in the 3&4 spots in exotics.

7. Mandaloun (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) 15/1 – Best hope is that he blew himself out a bit with his Risen Star win and now could run back to it. If he does he will be in the top third of the field heading to the backstretch, and will make a far turn move into the top 3 and run his ass off from there. 15/1 odds seem a little low considering his LA Derby egg, he could finish anywhere from a game 2nd to a fading 15th. Has looked good on the track this week, so I’ll probably sneak him into some tri and super tickets.

8. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 15/1 – Baffert…..a certain magic lingers in the very name….Baffert wins with front running horses. Johnny V allowed Life is Good and Rock Your World to get the lead early and Medina Spirit couldn’t close the gap. It’s Baffert’s only horse this year, he’ll be flying early. The draw leaves him pressers and closers on his left, so the incentive is there to blast out, clear the slower horses and grab control from the rail. Then we’ll see. He either gets brave and wires the field or he tires himself and the rest of the vanguard, leaving Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Hot Rod Charlie and others to take over on the far turn. My money will be on the latter, for the most part.

9. Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill/Flavien Prat) 8/1 – Not the greatest out of the gate but with enough tactical speed to sit in the top third of the field. No reason to think he can’t be right there all the way to the far turn, then we’ll see if he’s got enough in the tank to make a move. His turn times are in the bottom half of the field, so he might need to be even closer to the front early to compensate for it. His dam sire was more a miler type, so he might just flatten out late. Will sprinkle in underneath but I like others better for the win.

10. Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith) 20/1 – Has never passed a horse in the stretch and only two in the far turn, so he really needs to blast off early to have a shot. Not as fast as Rock Your World and Medina Spirit, so that’s a tall order. Loses lengths in all but one race he’s ever run, if he’s need on the lead I think he finishes off the board. If he somehow makes it the first 9 furlongs in 1st or 2nd, he could hold on for a piece. I think the former is more likely.

11. Dynamic One (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz) 20/1 – Figures to be just outside the top ten heading to the backstretch, his 2nd call numbers are slower than most of the other early pressers. Will be gearing up for a big run the last 3/8ths similar to his Wood effort. Water gets a bit deeper here though. Not a fan.

12. Helium (Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux) 50/1 – Has the tactical speed to be in the top half of the field into the backstretch, then would look to make a move on the far turn. Has led each of the three races coming into the stretch and maintained or widened his lead in all of them. Still improving, but a bit raw yet with only 3 races under his belt. By comparison, Justify had three races with speed figures of 100, 104 and 114. Helium’s are 84, 86 and 93. So the brilliance isn’t there. Will probably pass.

13. Hidden Stash (Vicki Oliver/Rafael Bejarano) 50/1 – Comfortable sitting back and making one run, will likely start out 15th or worse. Has shown ability to make a nice move on the far turn and use the momentum to carry him to the wire, so that’s the likely plan for Saturday. The question is will there be enough pace? In the quicker paced Sam Davis and Tampa Derby, he closed to within a length of the winner. In the slower paced Bluegrass he had no answer as Essential Quality and Highly Motivated ran away late. Has a chance at finishing 3rd or 4th and will use accordingly.

14. Essential Quality (Brad Cox/Luis Saez) 2/1 – Has enough tactical speed to be in sight of the leaders on the backstreet, has shown great moves on the far turn and is a tenacious horse down the stretch. Rinse and repeat. Must use.

15. Rock Your World (John Sadler/Joel Rosario) 5/1 – a repeat of the SA Derby would see him go to the lead and try to win from the front, which is possible, although in his two turn turf win he rated just behind the leader and made his move in the stretch, so he’s versatile. Starting so far outside of Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon I could see him rating in the 3 path just behind those two. Definitely more polished than Helium but history is still against him with the lack of experience. Need to use a bit.

16. King Fury (Ken McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20/1 – His Lexington win was a massive improvement over the other five races in his career, won with a ground saving rail trip on a sloppy track. Has decent tactical speed so he might try to settle in mid-pack, and try to move up early on the far turn, but he’s probably stuck going wide which will cost him. Pass.

17. Highly Motivated (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) 10/1 – Has plenty of early speed to get into the top third of the field heading into the far turn, although he’ll be 2nd or 3rd path. Has the best turn time numbers in the field, so I expect him to be no worse than 3rd by the top of the stretch, and from there he’s generally been a willing finisher. At his morning line of 10/1 he’s my top pick.

18. Super Stock (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana) 30/1 – Had a big effort in the Ark Derby tracking Caddo River and Concert Tour and then mowing them down in the stretch. But he started from the 1 hole that race so he benefited from the shortest trip possible. Now way outside he’ll be giving away multiple lengths in ground loss if he tries to track near the lead again. His two posts outside of #7 did not go well, so I’ll be passing here.

19. Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) 30/1 – Not as quick early as Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon or Rock Your World, so he’s going to be hard-pressed to get a good position heading into the far turn without a lot of exertion and will like get caught wide. That will probably cost him on the far turn, would expect him to tire a bit like in his FL Derby run. He managed to hold on there to second but it’s a lot harder to do that in a 20 horse field going the extra ¼ mile. Will be passing on him.

20. Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher/Kendrick Carmouche) 30/1 – Shocking winner of the Wood laid back and made one run late. Has very little early speed so that will be his formula here. Look for him to make a hard left turn out of the gate, head to the far turn as one of the last 3, and try to make a big run the last ½ mile. Will need a furious pace to develop to pull it off, doubt it occurs, but can see him clunking up for 3rd or 4th at a nice price.
 
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I'm ending up on Search Results, with a little Malathaat. Race doesn't have a lot of pace, Search Results should get a nice position either behind or beside Ava's Grace, has plenty of stretch kick to get home. Underneath those two Pass the Champagne and Travel Column are OK for place/show, and closers with potential for the tri/super are Will's Secret, Pauline's Pearl, Crazy Beautiful and Clairiere

$18 Tri ticket - 10, 12 / 5, 6, 10, 12 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12
$8 Exacta - 10, 12 / 1, 3, 4, 11
 
Didn't like any of the non-stakes races today.

Race 6 - 6-5-4 - Track is playing fair so Maxfield should have the best of it. He's beaten most of these before. Roadster is the wild card, lets see if Baffert has him cranked up.

Race 7 - 6-2-7 - Aunt Pearl probably the most likely winner today, she has a clear pace and class advantage.

I put in a Pick 5 starting in race 7: 6 / 1,2,3,7 / 6,8,9,10 / 3,8,9,10 / 10,12

Hoping for a price in either the 8th or 9th race.

Longshot dart of the day is in the Eight Belles, Race 9 : #1 Make Mischief 15/1 - gets a rail trip at 7f, new trainer, turnback from mile races, has won 3 of 4 and with 4 E runners there should be ample speed for a closer type like her. Will get lost on the board in this field of 12.
 
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