kahlmyishmael's soccer tip thread

kahlmyishmael

Well-Known Member

  • Genoa - Cagliari
  • BTTS: Yes @ 2.23 average oddsportal decimal odds

  • Previous fixture between these two was scored 3 - 3
  • Guessing the oddsmaker figure they'll work on their defense here and maybe hope that each side walks away with at least one point

    Maybe the odds maker is absolutely correct but like the song says, "I still believe"

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  • Genoa - Cagliari
  • BTTS: Yes @ 2.23 average oddsportal decimal odds

  • Previous fixture between these two was scored 3 - 3
  • Guessing the oddsmaker figure they'll work on their defense here and maybe hope that each side walks away with at least one point

    Maybe the odds maker is absolutely correct but like the song says, "I still believe"

View attachment 106733
No winner today; -$10.00
Genoa won by a score of 3 - 0
 
0 wins - 1 loss
-$10.00

Portugal
Liga Portugal 2

Academico Viseu - Leiria
Friday 16 Jan, 13:00 EST
Tip: BTTS: Yes @ 1,91 average oddsportal decimal odds

Last time these teams met in August of 2025, the score was 3 to 2 with Leira emerging victorious
Wishing & hoping that all that scoring results in at least a 1 - 1 winning result for BTTS :Yes on Friday; a few Penalty kicks would not hurt but like the song says, "kicks just keep getting harder to find"







1768398298964.png
 
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Oddsportal has average odds at 2.06 and betCRIS is posting at 2.07 @ 11:01 EST

Pinnacle, betCRIS and betfair exchange are the three sportsbooks that I know of which do not "throttle back" on winning action (the snarky joke on bet365's "risk assessment team" is that winning action is placed on a forced march to a "throttled back" sister site known as "bet $3.65") :angery:


wagering action on this fixture began on the 4th of January at 2,00 bet 365 and a few others... now it has migrated to 2.06 even though both squads have had btts: yes results galore throughout the Championship season.

Preston's defensive injuries take out two terrific defenders near the top of the league but they have reserves who have stepped in and played at a level worthy of their inclusion in the top 6 to qualify for nice slots in European play next year.

Preston's best goal scorer is out though; yet another top goal scorer has been playing at a high level recently.

So part of the wagering action movement on the BTTS: No market resting below 1.91 decimal odds may be an overreaction due to Preston's reliance on defense to date as well as the top goal scorer being injured. The feeling is IMO correct that Preston will rely on their defense with all-star Dobbin out since Preston can live with any type of draw (including 0 - 0)

Derby too lost a top Championship League defender but their defensive reserves have UNDERPERFORMED even though being quite talented. Their midfielders with one notable exception have not been at the tops of their game.

But the Derby County team scores AS EVIDENCED by their high BTTS: Yes % of 73%

So the algorithms from the 3 free prediction sites have BTTS: Yes occurring at 2 sites and BTTS: No at the remaining site since they are injury-neutral WHICH MAY BE WHY the money is moving towards BTTS: No

Derby County has really only had their highest quality player live up to expectations coming into this match.

But Derby County only need to look down in the standings to see Birmingham City and Southampton on their tails and to cast their gaze LOOKING UPWARD IN THE STANDINGS to see that they need 3 points and will settle for a draw only if Preston scores first.

Again, Derby County too has lost THEIR BEST DEFENDER to injury but UNLIKE Preston do not have a strong set of defenders so that eases the job to produce a goal for Preston

Preston knows Derby County has underperformed to their talent level and Preston can tolerate a 1-point draw EVEN THOUGH their next three upcoming fixtures are against the better & best-ranked teams in the Championship division.

But Preston cannot abide a 0-point loss with Hull, Middlesborough and Ipswich up next and all in the top third of the standings so IF DERBY SCORES FIRST then Preston needs to unload everything they've got to try and nick a draw.

Derby County is 8 points below in the standings from where they need to be & of necessity MUST aggressively figuratively "come out on the front foot" and should Derby County score first then Preston needs to throw everything they've got.

My score would be Preston 2 - Derby County 0 or, in the alternative a 0 - 0 draw since I think the stats show that Preston can basically dictate a slow, measured pace

...but given the exigencies
of Preston's loss of two stud defenders on the left side as well as their left-side stud forward and Derby County being forced to throw everything they can to get up, up and away from Birmingham City and Southampton, I will take the steadily-increasing better odds of 2.06.


Marilyn McCoo and the 5th Dimension sang about teams in the same "UP, UP and Away"-type situation like Derby County find themselves in now.:)


BTTS: Yes @ 2.06 average oddsportal decimal odds is the tip

Best wishes, everybody

W/l and ROI cumulative stats will be updated sunday... currently 0 win - 1 loss for -$10.00

(another factor is that Derby County has slightly underperformed in their last 4 fixtures... maybe getting away from home with their 31 thousand sofascore followers watching on TV will give their underperforming high-salaried players the NEEDED "OOMPH" just like Marsha Queen of Diamonds', Aunt Hildy provided for her niece's love potion on a 1966 - 1968 Batman TV episode when Marsha & Aunt Hildy teamed up with Burgess Meredith to FELONIOUSLY rob the Gotham City Sub-Treasury)






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... we need a LESS HAPPY 5th Dimension tune but something with enough ZIP & TEMPO to stop these guys from just sitting back like preston is famous for... maybe have a cat sneak onto the pitch, also; that ALWAYS ENTERTAINS the fans

or have Marilyn McCoo sing this sad song admonishing her boyfriend to LEVEL UP as shown here

 
0 wins - 1 loss
-$10.00

Portugal
Liga Portugal 2

Academico Viseu - Leiria
Friday 16 Jan, 13:00 EST
Tip: BTTS: Yes @ 1,91 average oddsportal decimal odds

Last time these teams met in August of 2025, the score was 3 to 2 with Leira emerging victorious
Wishing & hoping that all that scoring results in at least a 1 - 1 winning result for BTTS :Yes on Friday; a few Penalty kicks would not hurt but like the song says, "kicks just keep getting harder to find"







View attachment 106814
Academico Viseu - Leiria lost

Updated Cumulative record:
0 wins - 2 losses -$20.00
 
Troyes - Reims is in the 68th minute ( I fell asleep; I will count it as a loss if it loses but not count it as a win if Reims scores -- the Munster-Karlsruher loss and not count the Coventry win.


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I decided to post my new (sort of) Double Chance (aka, AH +0.5) handicapping approach but some are/"will be" (AH +1.5)

I will not count these in the w/l ROI results
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Oddsportal has average odds at 2.06 and betCRIS is posting at 2.07 @ 11:01 EST

Pinnacle, betCRIS and betfair exchange are the three sportsbooks that I know of which do not "throttle back" on winning action (the snarky joke on bet365's "risk assessment team" is that winning action is placed on a forced march to a "throttled back" sister site known as "bet $3.65") :angery:


wagering action on this fixture began on the 4th of January at 2,00 bet 365 and a few others... now it has migrated to 2.06 even though both squads have had btts: yes results galore throughout the Championship season.

Preston's defensive injuries take out two terrific defenders near the top of the league but they have reserves who have stepped in and played at a level worthy of their inclusion in the top 6 to qualify for nice slots in European play next year.

Preston's best goal scorer is out though; yet another top goal scorer has been playing at a high level recently.

So part of the wagering action movement on the BTTS: No market resting below 1.91 decimal odds may be an overreaction due to Preston's reliance on defense to date as well as the top goal scorer being injured. The feeling is IMO correct that Preston will rely on their defense with all-star Dobbin out since Preston can live with any type of draw (including 0 - 0)

Derby too lost a top Championship League defender but their defensive reserves have UNDERPERFORMED even though being quite talented. Their midfielders with one notable exception have not been at the tops of their game.

But the Derby County team scores AS EVIDENCED by their high BTTS: Yes % of 73%

So the algorithms from the 3 free prediction sites have BTTS: Yes occurring at 2 sites and BTTS: No at the remaining site since they are injury-neutral WHICH MAY BE WHY the money is moving towards BTTS: No

Derby County has really only had their highest quality player live up to expectations coming into this match.

But Derby County only need to look down in the standings to see Birmingham City and Southampton on their tails and to cast their gaze LOOKING UPWARD IN THE STANDINGS to see that they need 3 points and will settle for a draw only if Preston scores first.

Again, Derby County too has lost THEIR BEST DEFENDER to injury but UNLIKE Preston do not have a strong set of defenders so that eases the job to produce a goal for Preston

Preston knows Derby County has underperformed to their talent level and Preston can tolerate a 1-point draw EVEN THOUGH their next three upcoming fixtures are against the better & best-ranked teams in the Championship division.

But Preston cannot abide a 0-point loss with Hull, Middlesborough and Ipswich up next and all in the top third of the standings so IF DERBY SCORES FIRST then Preston needs to unload everything they've got to try and nick a draw.

Derby County is 8 points below in the standings from where they need to be & of necessity MUST aggressively figuratively "come out on the front foot" and should Derby County score first then Preston needs to throw everything they've got.

My score would be Preston 2 - Derby County 0 or, in the alternative a 0 - 0 draw since I think the stats show that Preston can basically dictate a slow, measured pace

...but given the exigencies
of Preston's loss of two stud defenders on the left side as well as their left-side stud forward and Derby County being forced to throw everything they can to get up, up and away from Birmingham City and Southampton, I will take the steadily-increasing better odds of 2.06.


Marilyn McCoo and the 5th Dimension sang about teams in the same "UP, UP and Away"-type situation like Derby County find themselves in now.:)


BTTS: Yes @ 2.06 average oddsportal decimal odds is the tip

Best wishes, everybody

W/l and ROI cumulative stats will be updated sunday... currently 0 win - 1 loss for -$10.00

(another factor is that Derby County has slightly underperformed in their last 4 fixtures... maybe getting away from home with their 31 thousand sofascore followers watching on TV will give their underperforming high-salaried players the NEEDED "OOMPH" just like Marsha Queen of Diamonds', Aunt Hildy provided for her niece's love potion on a 1966 - 1968 Batman TV episode when Marsha & Aunt Hildy teamed up with Burgess Meredith to FELONIOUSLY rob the Gotham City Sub-Treasury)






View attachment 106887
A 0 - 1 Preston/Derby BTTS: Yes loss of -$10.00 brings us to 0 wins - 3 losses and a -$30.00 deficit
 
Might be a bit simpler to post recent & cumulative tips w/l & roi using what already exists.

BTTS: Yes

Double Chance, DNB and AH +1,5

The only meaningful numbers are "average odds" & "ROI by League" .... doing okay in some subordinate leagues but I go extremely flaccid, as it were, when tipping the big leagues...

...hopefully, no one will write a song about my POOR PERFORMANCE like this poor chap's girlfriend/bride did way back in 1972

"That night on our honeymoon..
... ............we stayed in separate rooms"



(I hope that one german background dancer does not give herself a case of whiplash)
 
(the following tip is based mainly upon sofascore & transfermarket pages as well as what i myself feel my be pertinent from leaguelane, sportsmole, sportskeeda and other free tip sites who somewhat consistently pick the chalk)

Preston North End is due for a bounce back after the defeat to Derby.

Hull City may be gassed/weary/exhausted after a win against Southampton (who are massively better on paper/e-market value by a ratio of 4 to 1 than Hull) and carrying 11 injuries)
Pitch conditions at Preston are a concern and there is still no final word on the knock Preston goalkeeper Iversen sustained LTO. Preston reserve goalkeeper was kept sharp with play in Scotland and kept 19 clean sheets in 36 matches for Dundee Utd as well as logging an incredible amount of minutes played.

Walton has been inserted for 4% of Preston's minutes with Iversen logging the other 96%

Walton therefore has the desired "experience" of a backup & one would expect Preston's stellar back line to make only slight changes depending on how Hull City comes at them.

With the POOR PITCH CONDITIONS, uncertainty around Iversen playing and Hull City still "punching above their weight: class" the tip is predicated on Hull City lending support to their own back line in defense UNLESS FORCED INTO an aggressive "attack mode"

Hull City plays a bit more conservative in away fixtures anyway; some of those 11 injuries will resolve with some end-of-January target dates for their return & since Hull City will be satisfied with a 1-point tie.

Envisioning a 0 - 0 or 1 - 1 draw with all the exigencies screaming out an O/U total going "under" even though the statistical projection not accounting for injuries would be Preston winning 1 - 0 or 2 - 1 due to Hull City conceding many, many goals faster than one of those 1960s' PEZ Candy dispensers.

Going to think that Preston will provide more help to their defensive backline; unless, they're being "coy" with Iversen's status and he is INSTEAD fully healthy.

If Austin Powers were handicapping this fixture, I personally feel he would want to sprinkle in some 1970s Hippie Chick Rock and Roll "Mojo" & get Hull City to come out on the front foot; Preston needs this win bad with two tough fixture lying ahead; worth a try with one of Fonzy's two girlfriends from the "Happy Days" 1970s TV Show

No slacking back today from Hull City; full throttle

"You've got the kind of a mind of a juvenile Romeo-o
And you're so blind you could find that your motor ain't ready to go-o o-o"



The tip is Hull City Double Chance @ 1.61 average oddsportal decimal odds

Today, 20 Jan 2026 @ 19:45 GMT

EFL Championship League
Preston North End - Hull City

Hull City Double Chance
@ 1.61 decimal odds



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2 additional wins today once again get logged into the Double Chance, DNB and AH+1.5 tip tracking 👍


BTTS: Yes




Double Chance, DNB and AH +1,5


The Double Chance closed at slightly poorer odds than what was originally wagered into so that is always encouraging (1.62 fell to 1.58)
A bit more discouraging is the DNB odds climbed to 1.96 from the 1.93 originally wagered into so there was no beating the closing line on that tip


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Young Boys do not just look bad; they're underperforming mightily

I'd be the first one to cheer on Derby County for picking up 9 points in 3 games but with every trend against WBA , West Brom has at least scored against the better-playing teams in the Championship.

A Friday night fixture with only Derby-WBA being shown on "the telly".. No Premier, League One... League Two... National
Derby-WBA is the only game in town

Perfect situation for WBA to break a 100-year old curse at Pride Park and also to break an abysmal streak of H2H draws & losses

THE CLINCHER?
I had a dream last night where The Gold Sheet started providing soccer tips and they handed out Derby County as one of their Key Releases.
Convinced me to take Derby on the DNB
as opposed to the 1x2MW (AH -0.5)

the 6-points came on two road games
They're on their home turf in rainy weather but not too cold
They've had at least one practice on that pitch since their last win


I do not think Derby County lays an egg but I remember when ESPN 2 started broadcasting those NCAA FB Sun Belt Conference games with 17-point dogs average 1.9 YPC and then winning outright because they were after all Division 1 teams (weaker sisters within Division 1 teams but Division 1 nonetheless) and The Gold Sheet would hand out the -17.0 point home favorite as a Key Release only to see the away dog win outright.

The 17-point dog had been playing miserably but now were on a Nationally Televised Game on a Tuesday Night (aka, "only game in town") and this would be their ONE OPPORTUNITY to play what could CONSTRUCTIVELY BE CALLED, their "Super Bowl."

I'm cheering for BOTH TEAMS but I do not think Derby comes home to lay an egg.


A 0-5 loss to Norwich after having played halfway decent against a the 2nd- or 3rd-best quality squad in the Championship League (Middlesborough) may have the lads of West Bromwich Albion a bit depressed as they adjust to the scheme their new manager from MLS Minnesota Utd is installing so the BTTS: Yes @ 1.99 average odds is out too EVEN THOUGH stud Defensive Centre-Back for Derby Matt Clarke must sit out THIS GAME due to an indirect card suspension.

1769105712742.png

The
1970s Hippie Chick Mojo Music Channel cannot be used indiscriminately LEST ONE SUFFERS THE INEVTABILITIES akin to the" poor outcomes" I myself personally experienced
from constantly bailing out when I always SLAMMED the "hyperspace" escape button on the old Space Invaders video game.


But it's like constantly betting the chalk: I can't help myself
(Parenthetically speaking, It's ALSO LIKE composing CTG postings that RESEMBLE the old 1960s Television kidnapping "RANSOM NOTES" than what a proper, somewhat-more-mature CTG posting would look like.}

So here is
a Linda Ronstadt cover of a Dave Edmunds cover of an Elvis Costello tune:

"Was it really murder?
.... Were you just pretending?"



 
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Young Boys were defeated by Lyon in Europa League Action so our Lyon (AH -0.5) won and is now logged into the Double Chance, DNB and AH+1.5 tip tracking 👍

Glad to have won but the line went from 1.77 decimal to 1.80 so I did not beat the closing line which is always the goal/benchmark necessary for long-term success


BTTS: Yes




Double Chance, DNB and AH +1,5 (click the "All Statistics" link to access the full "stats" page)



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Money is getting significantly better for Grenoble perhaps due to loss to Bastia by Grenoble COUPLED WITH Pau's scoring first against both Troyes & LeMans (only later to concede for a tie and loss, respectively) may have driven the late money towards Pau.

The thinking may be that Pau can HANG ON TO WHAT THEY'VE GOT against a lesser-talented Grenoble Squad.

Perhaps Franki Valley and the 4 Seasons can give Pau some "oomph", but at oddsportal average odds of 2.02 on Grenoble Double Chance (AH +0.5), I'm taking Grenoble

Today, 23 Jan 2026, 19:00 GMT

France

Ligue 2

Pau FC - Grenoble
The tips is Grenoble DC (AH +0.5) @ 2.02 average oddsportal decimal odds


Still hoping that Franki Valli can help Pau to turn things around; just not today
Stellar work though, lads against a very tough Troyes & a talented LeMans by Pau; cannot be denied


"There isn't anything I [won't allow]
.... I'd pay any price to get in good with [Pau]"











1769180181363.png
 
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Today, 23 Jan 2026, 17:30 GMT
Germany Betting Odds, Football | OddsPortal

Germany
2. Bundesliga

Arminia Bielefeld - Holstein Kiel

The tip is Holstein Kiel DC (AH +0.5) @ 1.63 average oddsportal decimal odds




View attachment 107218
A 2-2 draw resulted in a Holstein Kiel DC (AH +0.5) @ 1.63 win and once again, it gets logged into the Double Chance, DNB and AH+1.5 tip tracking



BTTS: Yes




Double Chance, DNB and AH +1,5 (click the "All Statistics" link to access the full "stats" page)

 
Money is getting significantly better for Grenoble perhaps due to loss to Bastia by Grenoble COUPLED WITH Pau's scoring first against both Troyes & LeMans (only later to concede for a tie and loss, respectively) may have driven the late money towards Pau.

The thinking may be that Pau can HANG ON TO WHAT THEY'VE GOT against a lesser-talented Grenoble Squad.

Perhaps Franki Valley and the 4 Seasons can give Pau some "oomph", but at oddsportal average odds of 2.02 on Grenoble Double Chance (AH +0.5), I'm taking Grenoble

Today, 23 Jan 2026, 19:00 GMT

France

Ligue 2

Pau FC - Grenoble
The tips is Grenoble DC (AH +0.5) @ 2.02 average oddsportal decimal odds


Still hoping that Franki Valli can help Pau to turn things around; just not today
Stellar work though, lads against a very tough Troyes & a talented LeMans by Pau; cannot be denied


"There isn't anything I [won't allow]
.... I'd pay any price to get in good with [Pau]"








A 2-2 draw resulted in a Grenoble DC (AH +0.5) @ 2.02 and once again, it gets logged into the Double Chance, DNB and AH+1.5 tip tracking



BTTS: Yes




Double Chance, DNB and AH +1,5 (click the "All Statistics" link to access the full "stats" page)



View attachment 107216
 
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Young Boys do not just look bad; they're underperforming mightily

I'd be the first one to cheer on Derby County for picking up 9 points in 3 games but with every trend against WBA , West Brom has at least scored against the better-playing teams in the Championship.

A Friday night fixture with only Derby-WBA being shown on "the telly".. No Premier, League One... League Two... National
Derby-WBA is the only game in town

Perfect situation for WBA to break a 100-year old curse at Pride Park and also to break an abysmal streak of H2H draws & losses

THE CLINCHER?
I had a dream last night where The Gold Sheet started providing soccer tips and they handed out Derby County as one of their Key Releases.
Convinced me to take Derby on the DNB
as opposed to the 1x2MW (AH -0.5)

the 6-points came on two road games
They're on their home turf in rainy weather but not too cold
They've had at least one practice on that pitch since their last win


I do not think Derby County lays an egg but I remember when ESPN 2 started broadcasting those NCAA FB Sun Belt Conference games with 17-point dogs average 1.9 YPC and then winning outright because they were after all Division 1 teams (weaker sisters within Division 1 teams but Division 1 nonetheless) and The Gold Sheet would hand out the -17.0 point home favorite as a Key Release only to see the away dog win outright.

The 17-point dog had been playing miserably but now were on a Nationally Televised Game on a Tuesday Night (aka, "only game in town") and this would be their ONE OPPORTUNITY to play what could CONSTRUCTIVELY BE CALLED, their "Super Bowl."

I'm cheering for BOTH TEAMS but I do not think Derby comes home to lay an egg.


A 0-5 loss to Norwich after having played halfway decent against a the 2nd- or 3rd-best quality squad in the Championship League (Middlesborough) may have the lads of West Bromwich Albion a bit depressed as they adjust to the scheme their new manager from MLS Minnesota Utd is installing so the BTTS: Yes @ 1.99 average odds is out too EVEN THOUGH stud Defensive Centre-Back for Derby Matt Clarke must sit out THIS GAME due to an indirect card suspension.

View attachment 107181

The
1970s Hippie Chick Mojo Music Channel cannot be used indiscriminately LEST ONE SUFFERS THE INEVTABILITIES akin to the" poor outcomes" I myself personally experienced
from constantly bailing out when I always SLAMMED the "hyperspace" escape button on the old Space Invaders video game.


But it's like constantly betting the chalk: I can't help myself
(Parenthetically speaking, It's ALSO LIKE composing CTG postings that RESEMBLE the old 1960s Television kidnapping "RANSOM NOTES" than what a proper, somewhat-more-mature CTG posting would look like.}

So here is
a Linda Ronstadt cover of a Dave Edmunds cover of an Elvis Costello tune:

"Was it really murder?
.... Were you just pretending?"



A 1 - 1 draw in the Derby - West Brom fixture resulted in Derby DNB @ 1.72 average oddsportal odds RETURNED STAKE and gets logged into the Double Chance, DNB and AH+1.5 tip tracking



BTTS: Yes




Double Chance, DNB and AH +1,5 (click the "All Statistics" link to access the full "stats" page)

 
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I'm still learning and don't know what AH means

I get double chance compared to draw no bet lines but at a loss as to AH. Figure it's an alternate line but please correct me
 
The AH +1.5 in Soccer is, in actuality, 100% synonymous with the NHL Puck LIne of tomorrow's game between the Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 @ 1.53 European Decimal Odds/-189 North American Moneyline Odds against the Avalanche

In a similar fashion, it is also 100% synonymous with the +1.5 Run Line in MLB baseball

The 1x2 Match winner is a LEGACY TERM from days of old & (AH - 0.5) both mean that a tie/draw loses; the team wagered on must "win outright".

The DNB/Draw No Bet (AH +0.0) is 100% synonymous with the Pick'Em wager;
a tie/draw outcome results in one's wagering stake being returned

The DC Double Chance (AH +0.5) will pay off if the team wagered on EITHER wins or draws
Many Brits STILL USE the LEGACY TERMS of 11/10 and 6/5 fractional odds as opposed to -110 moneyline/1.91 decimal odds
 
I bet a bunch of footy but don't know what it means
The AH +1.5 in Soccer is, in actuality, 100% synonymous with the NHL Puck LIne of tomorrow's game between the Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 @ 1.53 European Decimal Odds/-189 North American Moneyline Odds against the Avalanche

In a similar fashion, it is also 100% synonymous with the +1.5 Run Line in MLB baseball

The 1x2 Match winner is a LEGACY TERM from days of old & (AH - 0.5) both mean that a tie/draw loses; the team wagered on must "win outright".

The DNB/Draw No Bet (AH +0.0) is 100% synonymous with the Pick'Em wager;
a tie/draw outcome results in one's wagering stake being returned

The DC Double Chance (AH +0.5) will pay off if the team wagered on EITHER wins or draws
 
Going through alot mate

+1.5 is what it means?

What does AH stand for? I'm extremely savvy in sports betting terminology but was only asking what that even means

I understand DC draw or win pays, I simply don't know what AH means. What does it stand for? Any half? Any hooker?
 
Going through alot mate

+1.5 is what it means?

What does AH stand for? I'm extremely savvy in sports betting terminology but was only asking what that even means

I understand DC draw or win pays, I simply don't know what AH means. What does it stand for? Any half? Any hooker?
Asian Handicap but I have no idea where that term originated from; all of us initially ask that question as well as the meaning of BTTS, etc
 
  • Haha
Reactions: KJ
Dammit I stewed over that for three days before asking and it was right in front of my edamame eatin' eyes
The MAIN DELIVERABLE that I would want FOLLOWERS of this thread to be able to witness for themselves is "average/mean odds" or better yet, "the poorer end of representative odds(aka, "mode" as opposed to "mean").

Nothing is more discouraging for people subscribing to "paid touts" who dishonestly "cherry pick" the most favorable odds to have their tips graded at AS OPPOSED TO realistic, "readily-available", "real world" odds that they can actually WAGER INTO when they get home from work and sit down to their laptop PCs to place their bets.
I'm planning to fashion a post in the, "Inside Capping The Game" thread about "throttling back"/"banning" by most online books... the simplest solution is to move to Canada

Also, a post related to all wagering based upon the first few paragraphs of the late Ken Uston's chapter on "Determination of Betting Strategy" chapter in his "Million Dollar Blackjack"

... then just HOPE that my tips start beating the bookies' closing lines which is the goal/benchmark that is necessary to achieve long-term success... i'm having fun to be sure... but it's just an unsustainable, "Jerry Reed"-type "hot streak"; what goes up must come down

"He threw the book at me..
... and let my friends go free"

 
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I knew I liked you Braddah…. Glad I found this thread. Ken Uston…. Thanks for the recommendation and advice!! Im complete rookie at my favorite sport on the planet. Have had some success with futures at the major tournaments, and unlike many i like to cheer for the draw.

I was a FIFA Grade 5 Official in 2001-2004 under the legend Brian Hall, and i reached Division 1 in the Bay Area and semi pro fifa. I was chased at gunpoint in the parking lot, blew a big call as an AR in the semifinals of the SFSFL CUP and seen some unbelievable situations 😂

Love the game
 
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