Oddsportal has average odds at 2.06 and betCRIS is posting at 2.07 @ 11:01 EST
Pinnacle, betCRIS and betfair exchange are the three sportsbooks that I know of which do not "throttle back" on winning action
(the snarky joke on bet365's "risk assessment team" is that winning action is placed on a forced march to a "throttled back" sister site known as "bet $3.65")
wagering action on this fixture began on the 4th of January at 2,00 bet 365 and a few others... now it has migrated to 2.06 even though both squads have had btts: yes results galore throughout the Championship season.
Preston's defensive injuries take out two terrific defenders near the top of the league but they have reserves who have stepped in and played at a level worthy of their inclusion in the top 6 to qualify for nice slots in European play next year.
Preston's best goal scorer is out though;
yet another top goal scorer has been playing at a high level recently.
So part of the wagering action movement on the BTTS: No market resting below 1.91 decimal odds
may be an overreaction due to Preston's reliance on defense to date as well as the top goal scorer being injured. The feeling is IMO correct that Preston will rely on their defense with all-star Dobbin out since Preston can live with any type of draw (including 0 - 0)
Derby too lost a top Championship League defender but their defensive reserves have UNDERPERFORMED even though being quite talented. Their midfielders with one notable exception have not been at the tops of their game.
But the Derby County team scores AS EVIDENCED by their high BTTS: Yes % of 73%
So the algorithms from the 3 free prediction sites have BTTS: Yes occurring at 2 sites and BTTS: No at the remaining site since they are injury-neutral WHICH MAY BE WHY the money is moving towards BTTS: No
Derby County has really only had their highest quality player live up to expectations coming into this match.
But Derby County only need to
look down in the standings to see Birmingham City and Southampton on their tails and to cast their gaze LOOKING UPWARD IN THE STANDINGS to see that they need 3 points and will settle for a draw only
if Preston scores first.
Again, Derby County too has lost THEIR BEST DEFENDER to injury but UNLIKE Preston do not have a strong set of defenders so that eases the job to produce a goal for Preston
Preston knows Derby County has underperformed to their talent level and Preston can tolerate a 1-point draw EVEN THOUGH their next three upcoming fixtures are against the better & best-ranked teams in the Championship division.
But Preston cannot abide a 0-point loss with Hull, Middlesborough and Ipswich up next and all in the top third of the standings so
IF DERBY SCORES FIRST then Preston needs to unload everything they've got to try and nick a draw.
Derby County is 8 points below in the standings from where they need to be & of necessity MUST aggressively figuratively "come out on the front foot"
and should Derby County score first then Preston needs to throw everything they've got.
My score would be Preston 2 - Derby County 0 or, in the alternative a 0 - 0 draw since I think the stats show that Preston can basically dictate a slow, measured pace
...but given the exigencies of Preston's loss of two stud defenders on the left side as well as their left-side stud forward and
Derby County being forced to throw everything they can to get up, up and away from Birmingham City and Southampton, I will take the steadily-increasing better odds of 2.06.
Marilyn McCoo and the 5th Dimension sang about teams in
the same "UP, UP and Away"-type situation like Derby County find themselves in now.
BTTS: Yes @ 2.06 average oddsportal decimal odds is the tip
Best wishes, everybody
W/l and ROI cumulative stats will be updated sunday... currently 0 win - 1 loss for -$10.00
(another factor is that
Derby County has slightly underperformed in their last 4 fixtures...
maybe getting away from home with their 31 thousand sofascore followers watching on TV will give their underperforming high-salaried players the NEEDED "OOMPH" just like
Marsha Queen of Diamonds', Aunt Hildy provided for her niece's love potion on a 1966 - 1968 Batman TV episode
when Marsha & Aunt Hildy teamed up with Burgess Meredith to FELONIOUSLY rob the Gotham City Sub-Treasury)
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