Just for ETG..Early Dr. Bob Discussion and INGAME

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I started it 90 minutes early last Thursday and ETG was infuriated that he couldn't get any work done at work..heh.

basically, will there be a release on tonights game. I believe last week the release came about 2 hours before the weekend release.

Bob has been pretty horrid this year. I am hoping he moves a few lines in my favor for the weekend.

What are you guys looking at so far?
 
I could really use a 5star UK play from Dr. Bob so I can pick up SC-1 for a few more units
 
That would be a dream ETG.Im praying hes on Kentucky large
 
For those guys who analyze the public side of things..

How much percent of bets placed are on UK?

I know the facebook consensus is like 63-35 on UK covering/winning.
I know wagerline is like 60% UK over SC.

I noticed the line moved to -4. Anyone with this info?
 
B.A.R. said:
In all honesty..if he is on a play tonight my hunch is its SC fwiw
Click to expand...

You mean Dr. Bob is going to MUSH me?

I don't think I've won a Thursday night game all yr, please Bob don't fuck with my game and bring me down with you!
 
<TABLE class=Grid id=liveOddsTable11 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR id=e101033 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"><TD id=InfoCell style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">Details</TD><TD id=timebox><NOBR>10/4</NOBR>
<NOBR>7:45P</NOBR>
</TD><TD id=teambox><NOBR>305 Kentucky
306 South Carolina</NOBR>
</TD><TD id=NumberOfBets style="TEXT-ALIGN: center">27261
None.gif
</TD><TD id=SpreadPercent style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66; TEXT-ALIGN: center">60%
40%
</TD><TD id=MoneyLinePercent style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66; TEXT-ALIGN: center">69%

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
ETG,

I see that the line has moved up some..

This is a bit of reverse line movement.
 
I'm not big into "fade the public" type stuff. Just thought it was interesting the line moved up since UK is a very public side 2night. Public in the sense of, anyone who isn't on a forum and watches espn or reads a newspaper has UK. I don't mean anything bout Sharp/Public. Just your normal everyday person who watches CFB.
 
Here it is.....

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>SOUTH CAROLINA (-4.0) 30 Kentucky 23
04:45 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Oct-04 - Stats Matchup
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=s2>Kentucky’s Andre Woodson is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, but he’ll likely struggle tonight against a very good South Carolina pass defense that’s yielded just 3.4 yards per pass play (to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average defense) and has not allowed more than 3.9 yppp in any game (3.9 yppp to Georgia, 3.1 yppp to LSU). The Gamecocks are a bit worse than average defending the run, so Kentucky’s very good ground game (236 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play) will post some good numbers. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has turned to freshman Chris Smelley at quarterback in place of senior Blake Mitchell and Smelley has been good so far in averaging 6.6 yppp on 81 pass plays against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Kentucky’s defense is only 0.1 yards per play better than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl) so the Gamecocks should move the ball well as long as one of their two injured running is able to play backs (Mike Davis and Cory Boyd are both listed as questionable, but I suspect at least one will play). My math model favors South Carolina by 4 points, so the line is fair, but Kentucky applies to a negative 27-68-1 ATS situation. That situation is not quite as negative for dogs of more than 3 points, so I’ll lean with South Carolina at -3 ½ or more and I’d consider South Carolina a Strong Opinion at -3 or less.

:hang:
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Mark's Madness said:
<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>SOUTH CAROLINA (-4.0) 30 Kentucky 23
04:45 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Oct-04 - Stats Matchup

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=s2>Kentucky’s Andre Woodson is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, but he’ll likely struggle tonight against a very good South Carolina pass defense that’s yielded just 3.4 yards per pass play (to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average defense) and has not allowed more than 3.9 yppp in any game (3.9 yppp to Georgia, 3.1 yppp to LSU). The Gamecocks are a bit worse than average defending the run, so Kentucky’s very good ground game (236 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play) will post some good numbers. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has turned to freshman Chris Smelley at quarterback in place of senior Blake Mitchell and Smelley has been good so far in averaging 6.6 yppp on 81 pass plays against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Kentucky’s defense is only 0.1 yards per play better than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl) so the Gamecocks should move the ball well as long as one of their two injured running is able to play backs (Mike Davis and Cory Boyd are both listed as questionable, but I suspect at least one will play). My math model favors South Carolina by 4 points, so the line is fair, but Kentucky applies to a negative 27-68-1 ATS situation. That situation is not quite as negative for dogs of more than 3 points, so I’ll lean with South Carolina at -3 ½ or more and I’d consider South Carolina a Strong Opinion at -3 or less.

:hang:

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Click to expand...


fuk me fuk me fuk me fuk me fuk me

Do I cancel my bet now? AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
fuk me fuk me fuk me fuk me fuk me

Do I cancel my bet now? AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Click to expand...



:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:
 
Most of the thoughts/threads in here help with decisions on games like the UK/SC one...The line looks like most people are on KY, but there must be some huge money pouring in on SC...it just keeps going up.
 
JimmyHoffa said:
Most of the thoughts/threads in here help with decisions on games like the UK/SC one...The line looks like most people are on KY, but there must be some huge money pouring in on SC...it just keeps going up.
Click to expand...

Thats Bob money...thats the beauty of it...















FROM THE WEBSITE:

Weekly and Season to Date Results

I had another bad week in week 5 as my College Best Bets were just 2-5 and 5-14 on a Star Basis (0-1 on 4-Star, 1-2 on 3-Stars, and 1-2 on 2-Stars). I am now just 8-12 on my College Best Bets this season and 19-31 on a Star Basis, but it's still early in the season and there is plenty of time to have another winning season. I've had some bad weeks before and ended up with very profitable seasons. Last year I had a 1-5 week and also went 1-4 in bowl games and still ended the season at 58.4% (my worst in year in the last 3 seasons) - and there are plenty of other examples over my career of bad stretches in the middle of very profitable seasons - so don't overreact to a couple of bad weeks. I'm 62% in College Best Bets the last 4 years, 58% over the last 10 years and 57% over 20 years in business and my long term record is certainly more indicative of my future success than my 8-12 record so far this season. Remember, the stock market doesn't go up every month either, but stocks are still a very good investment - as is my Best Bets service.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
man this totally sucks.


I might only be hitting 50% right now but thats better than his damn 38%. Whenw as the last time he won? Is he due? LOL
 
FROM THE WEBSITE:

Weekly and Season to Date Results

I had another bad week in week 5 as my College Best Bets were just 2-5 and 5-14 on a Star Basis (0-1 on 4-Star, 1-2 on 3-Stars, and 1-2 on 2-Stars). I am now just 8-12 on my College Best Bets this season and 19-31 on a Star Basis, but it's still early in the season and there is plenty of time to have another winning season. I've had some bad weeks before and ended up with very profitable seasons. Last year I had a 1-5 week and also went 1-4 in bowl games and still ended the season at 58.4% (my worst in year in the last 3 seasons) - and there are plenty of other examples over my career of bad stretches in the middle of very profitable seasons - so don't overreact to a couple of bad weeks. I'm 62% in College Best Bets the last 4 years, 58% over the last 10 years and 57% over 20 years in business and my long term record is certainly more indicative of my future success than my 8-12 record so far this season. Remember, the stock market doesn't go up every month either, but stocks are still a very good investment - as is my Best Bets service.<!-- / message --><!-- sig --><!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________
:36_11_6:
 
jimbof20 said:
I must be in teh dark..who and what the fuck is dr bob?
Click to expand...


Jim, tell me you are joking...

if not..quick summary...

He uses math models and research to run his tout business. Last year in CFB he went on a nice run and by this time of year became a huge thing on the forums. He would release his plays at 1:00 est last year on Thursdays by email to his clients. Lines would jump 3-4 points on his best bets. Crazy shit. He cooled off but had a very impressive year in cgb...nfl not so much.

This year he is still moving lines. Tonights game is a strong opinion...no 'stars' attahed so line moved just a bit..thats all. His best bets and other opinions for Saturday will be released at 5:45 est today.
 
GL tonight on this guys. I've been reading this board since most of you came from that other dumbass site. This is my first post here but read daily trying to get useful information on my leans/plays. I used to somewhat tail bob for a couple of years, not big, but would coattail him some when he was on fire. He jinxed me last week as I was already on Oregon and Rutgers before his plays and I'm convinced his cold streak put the bad mojo on both of those resulting in the worst week of college football I have ever had in my life going 2-7 and losing 25 units. There is no way that I can play USC now just out of the sheer fact that this guy's "math model" apparently is out of wack and needs some serious tweaking.
 
Mark's Madness said:
GL tonight on this guys. I've been reading this board since most of you came from that other dumbass site. This is my first post here but read daily trying to get useful information on my leans/plays. I used to somewhat tail bob for a couple of years, not big, but would coattail him some when he was on fire. He jinxed me last week as I was already on Oregon and Rutgers before his plays and I'm convinced his cold streak put the bad mojo on both of those resulting in the worst week of college football I have ever had in my life going 2-7 and losing 25 units. There is no way that I can play USC now just out of the sheer fact that this guy's "math model" apparently is out of wack and needs some serious tweaking.
Click to expand...


LOL. Great to have you posting man. You going to be around later for the weekend releases?
 
Where did this line move to though?

I saw -3.5 all week and see -4 across the board. Dr. Dick losing his impact on lines?
 
Mark's Madness said:
GL tonight on this guys. I've been reading this board since most of you came from that other dumbass site. This is my first post here but read daily trying to get useful information on my leans/plays. I used to somewhat tail bob for a couple of years, not big, but would coattail him some when he was on fire. He jinxed me last week as I was already on Oregon and Rutgers before his plays and I'm convinced his cold streak put the bad mojo on both of those resulting in the worst week of college football I have ever had in my life going 2-7 and losing 25 units. There is no way that I can play USC now just out of the sheer fact that this guy's "math model" apparently is out of wack and needs some serious tweaking.
Click to expand...

I also used to tail Dr. Bob's plays for the past several years (selectively of course, I like his strong opinion plays more actually) but this year, he has been off but I do believe that he will bounce back though. He does have a proven track record but at this time, he is fade material. Hopefully I don't fade him when he gets back on track.

GL tonight!!!

:cheers:
 
The guy has gone 38% to start the year. Come on guys. Don't worry about this guy so much. Do your homework and chips will fall in place.
 
ATP,

It's not that we really care about Bob, at least for me personally. It's just that I was hoping for him to choose the dog today so I can get a more favorable line.
 
JimmyHoffa said:
ETG: He hasn't gone totally DEFEATED has he??? I feel like we're on the right side and Bob starts turning things around tonight.
Click to expand...

lol..true, I am still fairly confident in a 7-10 point win. I really don't see UK winning this game SU at all but that is neither here nor there.


Whatever, he could easily pay me back by taking any of the following teams this week.

Cinci, Wisky, NC, Tenny, Fresno, Bama, Idaho, ECU, UF,
 
S. Carolina isn't one of his best bets--it's not even a strong opinion since the line is greater than 3.
 
AgainstThePublic said:
The guy has gone 38% to start the year. Come on guys. Don't worry about this guy so much. Do your homework and chips will fall in place.
Click to expand...

Nobody is scared of him. The problem is that he moves the lines too much due to his following.

In this case, there were alot of people that wanted SC at 3 or better and now won't get it. Pissed off right now.
 
RJ Esq said:
Nobody is scared of him. The problem is that he moves the lines too much due to his following.

In this case, there were alot of people that wanted SC at 3 or better and now won't get it. Pissed off right now.
Click to expand...

Perfectly said
 
richardtonsj said:
ATP,

It's not that we really care about Bob, at least for me personally. It's just that I was hoping for him to choose the dog today so I can get a more favorable line.
Click to expand...

I know I understand all the line moving and whatnot and I agree with you. It just seems that just because this guy moves the line the right or wrong way, everybody goes nuts. Then don't play the game then.
 
RJ Esq said:
Nobody is scared of him. The problem is that he moves the lines too much due to his following.

In this case, there were alot of people that wanted SC at 3 or better and now won't get it. Pissed off right now.
Click to expand...

Why not play the ML then? I realize you may have to pay more juice but it just may be the safe way to go if you really think SC will win. I'm not trying to start anything just an observation when it comes to this guy.
 
Just want to wish all of those UK backers (BAR) some GL tonight.


(you are going to need it)



:smiley_acbe:
 
AgainstThePublic said:
I know I understand all the line moving and whatnot and I agree with you. It just seems that just because this guy moves the line the right or wrong way, everybody goes nuts. Then don't play the game then.
Click to expand...

but I'm a true degenerate and need to have some action when there is a game on, especially weekday

:hang:
 
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