June 7th MLB Discussion

Gaius.T

Gaius.T

Pretty much a regular
Dodgers in an early morning game for them. This can't be a good situation. Would assume coming off a loss doesn't help either.
 
Beeks starting for Boston. WTF!
Rays look interesting back home.
Cubs should be feeling good about that comeback yesterday. Seems like a good spot for them.
Think twins bouncing back against small game shields looks good as well.
 
like rays and twins mostly, santana and dodgers are intriguing..he's been in minors for 3+ years and avg ~ 10 k's per 9 with 4-1 K to BB. Seems to have really matured this year with 2.50 era between aa and aaa. Still got hit in his 3 inn of relief so far in the show...may be nerves

shorts board
View attachment 32772
 
The key problem to me is a high ERA for Tail vs Dodgers. He is a great day pitcher with what seems a homer ump but I am going to pass that game
 
i am not really clear why you like the Rays against Leake but I tend to think the Astros and Boston both win fairly easy today because Hamels actually tends to suck on 4 and I at least start off liking Leake. BOL
 
Then again
m of the Day
PLAY ON: Starters who went at least seven
innings last start while striking out no more than
three batters, if their opponent struck out no
more than four times last game
442-398 (0.22, 52.6%) +3.9% ROI
The opponent here did a great job avoiding
strikeouts last game but the starter here was able to
find success last outing without relying on strikeouts
and that often happens again here while the
strikeouts also regress up toward the mean.
s:SSO<=3 and s:SIP>=7 and op:strike outs<=4
Active on Detroit and Matthew Boyd.
Lot of conflicting trends
 
tuck321 said:
Then again
m of the Day
PLAY ON: Starters who went at least seven
innings last start while striking out no more than
three batters, if their opponent struck out no
more than four times last game
442-398 (0.22, 52.6%) +3.9% ROI
The opponent here did a great job avoiding
strikeouts last game but the starter here was able to
find success last outing without relying on strikeouts
and that often happens again here while the
strikeouts also regress up toward the mean.
s:SSO<=3 and s:SIP>=7 and op:strike outs<=4
Active on Detroit and Matthew Boyd.
Lot of conflicting trends
Click to expand...

Quite the interesting trend there.
 
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boyd vs sox era insignificant imo tuck....one start in '15 where he allowed 7 runs and didn't last long and another in '16 where he allowed one run in 6 innings i think....he's a different guy now....can't really bet against sox these days as they are playing very well but if there is a spot this may be it....VC ff worth a look
 
will be hot in TEX and since going to Rangers, Cole is 10-1 at night when temp > 90
d794b6de-0793-42fc-993e-76c0e4d7e177.png
 
Blake Swihart is finally getting his chance to catch.

For the first time this season Swihart gets the nod as the Red Sox' starting catcher, serving as the team's backstop with Jalen Beeks getting the start. Swihart has caught two innings this season after getting six starts at the position (including Opening Day) in 2016.

The rest of the Red Sox' lineup is also a bit out of the ordinary with J.D. Martinez moving to right field, Sam Travis playing left and Christian Vazquez serving as the designated hitter. Here is the Sox' lineup against Detroit lefty Matthew Boyd:

Andrew Benintendi CF

Xander Bogaerts SS

J.D.Martinez RF

Mitch Moreland 1B

Eduardo Nuñez 2B

Sam Travis LF

Rafael Devers 3B

Christian Vazquez DH

Blake Swihart C
 
Ryno14 said:
Hess due for regression
Click to expand...


I strongly disagree with saying Hess is due for regression. There is hardly any statistical significance to a four game sample. In my experience (e.g. mistakenly betting on Jordan Montgomery last year for similar reasoning), his FIP being higher than his ERA has zero meaning for such a young pitcher. FIP and ERA tend to align over career so regression only becomes statistically meaningful later in a pitcher's career. I see pitchers who go season after season with FIP higher than ERA or vice versa (not to speak of four games) before regression starts happening for them.
 
Retburj13 said:
Blake Swihart is finally getting his chance to catch.

For the first time this season Swihart gets the nod as the Red Sox' starting catcher, serving as the team's backstop with Jalen Beeks getting the start. Swihart has caught two innings this season after getting six starts at the position (including Opening Day) in 2016.

The rest of the Red Sox' lineup is also a bit out of the ordinary with J.D. Martinez moving to right field, Sam Travis playing left and Christian Vazquez serving as the designated hitter. Here is the Sox' lineup against Detroit lefty Matthew Boyd:

Andrew Benintendi CF

Xander Bogaerts SS

J.D.Martinez RF

Mitch Moreland 1B

Eduardo Nuñez 2B

Sam Travis LF

Rafael Devers 3B

Christian Vazquez DH

Blake Swihart C
Click to expand...

this has all the looks of a throwaway game for the sox if there is such a thing....sox tt under worth a look if it's 5....not sure
 
HOU at TEX had same matchup on April 13 and stros won 3-2 as both cole's pitched very well. Also Hamel beat Verlander at HOU on 5/11 spinning 6 shutout inn. Lost to Verlander 4-1 on opening day but in 3 starts vs HOU: 17.2 inn 4 runs 12 hits 9 walks 19 K's and 3 unders.
 
Food for thought: Yankees are 28-3 when their starters go 6 innings or more. I got them last night live at -115 at end of 9. Crazy the line was so low. They aren't playing today but I will try to remember this angle. https://goo.gl/jXH1pc
 
mrpickem said:
HOU at TEX had same matchup on April 13 and stros won 3-2 as both cole's pitched very well. Also Hamel beat Verlander at HOU on 5/11 spinning 6 shutout inn. Lost to Verlander 4-1 on opening day but in 3 starts vs HOU: 17.2 inn 4 runs 12 hits 9 walks 19 K's and 3 unders.
Click to expand...
Glad you mentioned that. He was on 5 and the ump was Greg Gibson I just lost it but Gibson is another long time great ump for him
 
Devers needs to get his swing back or will b sent down...
Needs to get his confidence back we shall see
 
41.1 innings 2.61 ERA. I have no doubt that heat does have a positive effect but there is no doubt the 4 days rest unless he gets another super ump he is likely to be in trouble here
 
tuck321 said:
Glad you mentioned that. He was on 5 and the ump was Greg Gibson I just lost it but Gibson is another long time great ump for him
Click to expand...

Let's not forget G Cole has regressed a bit over his last 4 starts 25ip 11er 6hr although he did go 3-1
 
Small play on Rangers +1 for me to go along with Vegas on the ice tonight. Hamels seems to show up against the Stros lately. GL all!
 
Flyer on O's +110
Away dog less than 150 when both teams have lost at least 7 of last 9 in division is 25-14 over 10 years https://goo.gl/meiu9P

AD and tS(L, N=9)>6 and oS(L, N=9)>6 and season > 2007 and DIV and line < 150
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I strongly disagree with saying Hess is due for regression. There is hardly any statistical significance to a four game sample. In my experience (e.g. mistakenly betting on Jordan Montgomery last year for similar reasoning), his FIP being higher than his ERA has zero meaning for such a young pitcher. FIP and ERA tend to align over career so regression only becomes statistically meaningful later in a pitcher's career. I see pitchers who go season after season with FIP higher than ERA or vice versa (not to speak of four games) before regression starts happening for them.
Click to expand...

Late steam seems to agree with you. BOL
 
Reyburn would seem to be good for tex with limited sample...would be on under but wind is really blowing
 
Anybody got any good tips for Royals/A‘s? Last game of the card

My degen of a German friend is looking for action :)
 
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