June 22nd Discussion ~ ROYOS are due?

So what do you get when you got one team that has lost at least 9 of 10 vs a team that has won 9 or ten...I wondered

Winners won 65% for 5% ROI but losers were 21-15 RL for 11.6% ROI. Also fwiw the under cashed 31-22 11.8% ROI

tS(L, N=10) > 8 and oS(W, N=10) > 8
SU: 19-36 (-1.35, 34.5%) avg line: 155.2 / -174.1 on / against: -$839 / +$494 ROI: -14.7% / +5.1%
RL: 21-15 (0.47, 58.3%) avg line: -106.8 / -106.4 on / against: +$495 / -$621 ROI: +11.6% / -14.5%
OU: 22-31-2 (0.11, 41.5%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$1,242 / +$705 ROI: -20.3% / +11.8%



Then if you take only the games over 150 line, fav wins 71% but a little less than 5% ROI while dog goes 12-7 RL for 26% ROI and even the under gets better at 18-12 15.7% ROI



tS(L, N=10) > 8 and oS(W, N=10) > 8 and line > 150
SU: 9-22 (-1.55, 29.0%) avg line: 186.7 / -211.3 on / against: -$524 / +$299 ROI: -16.9% / +4.6%
RL: 12-7 (0.71, 63.2%) avg line: -100.8 / -110.5 on / against: +$540 / -$616 ROI: +26.0% / -27.6%
OU: 12-18-1 (0.13, 40.0%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$810 / +$523 ROI: -23.1% / +15.7%


 
I like Guerra/Milwaukee at home to continue to roll...I know cards hit him at .283 through 70 ABs. Just dont' see much hope for this Cards team currently.
 
COL is above -200 with a perennial loser starting and then a dumpster fire bullpen

I really don't want to back MIA, but jfc
 
i also was looking over and was way off (probably farthest of the year) on my ML guess

Trying to be mature and not take bad teams just because of price
 
Is Cleveland supposed to win?
Terrible day of week seems to have a bad starter facing Fiers on 6
Novais playing on a 8-4 day of week on 5 where he is call it plus to Corbin very good on 5 7-4 day of week but bad history with Pitt and a homer ump that Nova has a ERA of 7 with
 
Based on Days of week which has started getting very weak for them Seattle should win at 7-2 but Boston is 8-4 in this range as a home fav and that Seattle pitcher is much better on 4 than 5
Cubs have a very good starter on best rest but the Reds just keep winning at home with another good starter.
I am talking too much need to study but where are the Yankees right now. 4 runs first inning and then Nothing
 
COL is above -200 with a perennial loser starting and then a dumpster fire bullpen

I really don't want to back MIA, but jfc

Chen probably worst road pitcher in the league. Batters hit .340 against him. He did fare well at home vs. Rockies earlier this year.

Gray sucks. But historically not any worse at home vs. the road.
 
Chen probably worst road pitcher in the league. Batters hit .340 against him. He did fare well at home vs. Rockies earlier this year.

Gray sucks. But historically not any worse at home vs. the road.

So over? Plus Rox strong vs southpaws i believe
 
I am talking too much need to study but where are the Yankees right now. 4 runs first inning and then Nothing

especially odd after two 2-run shots in the 8th and 9th on Wednesday to tie it in the 8th and win via walkoff
 
Chen has always pitched to contact, haven't followed him at all since he got hurt though and everyone keeps thinking Gray will become elite at some point
 
Pirella single handedly gave game to bum and giants last night. Helped me but makes me confused tonight as Padres were poised to win mid game
 
Seeing Gray this season on 4 days rest 8.01. Pirella did suck. Cokin had the Padres and was livid
 
FYI in tonights SF game Knight the major over ump gets along Very well with Richard Clayton
 
2 first half bets. Kind of dream bets it seemed,
Over 6.5 plus 5 cents in Colorado
Plis 90 cents Fiers first half. Major joke bet
 
Real possibility of reverse tl in Cleland Cleveland 3-8 on Friday

MICHAEL FIERS vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
FIERS is 3-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.04 and a WHIP of 1.104.
His team's record is 4-2 (+3.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.4 units)
 
FYI in tonights SF game Knight the major over ump gets along Very well with Richard Clayton
Like the over there!

Zona seems tempting!
Cubs
Tigers - nice stats there tuck!
Rocks Over or maybe 3inning RL

I seem to like to much. Usually not a good sign for me.
 
tailin a couple from tuck and bench...thx for input guys
  • 965 New York Yankees/Tampa Bay Rays Under 8½ -130
  • 969 Detroit Tigers +205 vs Cleveland Indians for 1st 5 Innings
  • 965 New York Yankees/Tampa Bay Rays Under 7½ +105
I split the under a half unit on each #
 
Added Cubs. No real interest except honesty. In every category they had big edges
 
so 3 teams qualify for this weekends game of likely win/runline win/tt over

Cubs at a 2.02 average run differential
Braves at 2.49 average run differential
Stros at a ridiculous 4.04 run differential

Yanks also at 1.64 but they are not hitting and TB plays them tough but they still qualify

Dodgers,Sox and Oakland all came close ranging from 1.24 to 1.33

Col only .85 but it the marlins and its mile high so they are a play

I will be playing Cubs, Braves, Stros, Yanks,Sox and Col on the ML, RL and TT over until they hit and then I will access.....Stros for 1/2 unit because of juice

I will keep you posted as this develops, all the earlier series this week that qualified hit

Fraught with danger.....ha ha
 
No real idea what happened to Fiers. Plays better on 6+ and loves to snap losing streak. Difficult games.
 
I think I would Skip Astros. As big favorites to weak teams they seem to go under consistently as a general rule,
 
Wait a minute. On second thought Houston is actually going to play for real Saturday. Go ahead
 
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