June 2013

[hugh613]

YTD: 196-203-23, -32.99

Monday:

6/24/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 307 FF Jaro (FIN-V)/HJK Helsinki (FIN-V)* Over 2½,3 -123
6/24/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 314 KUPS (FIN-V)* +108 vs FC Lahti (FIN-V)
6/24/2013 1:00 PM Sweden Soccer 101 Brommapojkarna (SWE-A)/AIK Stockholm (SWE-A)* Over 2½ -131
6/24/2013 1:20 PM Sweden Soccer 207 Degerfors (SWE-S)/Falkenbergs FF (SWE-S)* Over 2½,3 -123
6/24/2013 3:15 PM Iceland Soccer 401 Fylkir (ISL)/FH Hafnarfjordur (ISL)* Over 3 -109
6/24/2013 4:00 PM Iceland Soccer 407 Valur Reykjavik (ISL)/Breidablik (ISL)* Over 2½,3 -113

:cheers:

 

[ClubDirt]

last time i was up at 5:21 am, i hadn't been to sleep yet, within an hours of having to shade my eyes from the sun upon leaving the spearmint rhino. :shake:

 

[hugh613]

And the fun continues...

YTD: 198-206-24, -34.35

Adding:

6/24/2013 7:00 PM Paraguay Soccer 451 Luqueo (PAR)/Libertad (PAR)* Under 2½ +107 *2 UNITS*

• Luqueno have scored one goal against Libertad the last eight meetings (a period spanning the past two seasons) - the under is 6-2 in those games.
• Luqueno have kept clean sheets in five of their last seven games overall
• Luqueno have the lowest scoring offense in the league at 0.8 goals per game
• Libertad have the best home defense in the league at 0.7 goals per game

In other words, fade away and take the over (if I can't provide any winners, the least I can do is provide some losers until the till runs empty)...

:cheers:

 

[hugh613]

Funny. The second I got home from the "greatest place on Earth" (ie. Walmart), I went over to my laptop to see what the score was. Right then and there, futbol24 went off to signal a goal for Libertad to make it 2-1 Luqueno. I yelled "motherfucker" and slammed my laptop shut. Now I look and realize it was one futbol24's infamous "goal, no goal" dings (although you just know the same thing would have happened if I'd had the over). Of course, none of the gibberish I wrote up actually applied to the game, but y'know... Nice to have one go my way for a change at least.

Now the bigger question: am I so desperate for action tomorrow that I spend the rest of the night capping the Egyptian Premier League?

:thinking:

 

[Monger]

I vote yes.

 

[Monger]

Not that your desperate, but to cap it anyway.

 

[hugh613]

I vote yes.

:angry:

 

[ClubDirt]

that's part of the fun of betting tpta;s and following on futbol24. sometimes after an important goal on futbol24 i run over to flashscores for immediate verification. they don't fuck up nearly as much but they also don't have the good sound effects.

 

[hugh613]

Not much I can do without lines at my disposal (bet365's got sides, but not totals for the moment), but here are my initial projections based on overall and home/away splits:

<tbody>
[TD="class: xl68, colspan: 4"] PROJECTION [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: center"] AH [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: center"] OU [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] Wadi Degla FC [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 0.58 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] Telephonat Bani Sweif [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 0.95 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 0.37
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 1.54 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] Ghazl Al Mehalla [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 0.93 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] El Hodood [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 1.04 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 0.11 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 1.96 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] Misr El-Maqasha [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 0.46 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] Al Ahly [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 2.03 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 1.57 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 2.50


[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66"] El Gounah [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 0.76 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] ENPPI [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 1.65 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 0.89 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"] 2.41 [/TD]

</tbody>

Al Ahly's the obvious choice, but at -250 ML, meh... Might have to find something to parlay it with (I doubt 5dimes puts out an AH - to be honest, I didn't even realize they offered Egypt). As for trends from whoscored:

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 14 of Telephonat Bani Sweif's last 15 games in Premier League.

Ghazl Al Mehalla have failed to win their last 10 matches in Premier League.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Ghazl Al Mehalla's last 7 home games in Premier League.
Ghazl Al Mehalla have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against El Hodood in all competitions.
El Hodood have failed to win their last 7 matches in Premier League.

Al Ahly have won their last 10 matches in Premier League.
Al Ahly have been winning at both half time and full time in 8 of their last 10 matches in Premier League.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 9 of Misr El-Maqasha's last 10 games in Premier League.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Al Ahly's last 5 games in Premier League.

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in El Gounah's last 5 home games in Premier League.
El Gounah have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches against ENPPI in all competitions.

Hmm... There's also Iceland Women's Division 1 tomorrow afternoon...

:thinking:

 

[ClubDirt]

you were serious

 

[hugh613]

that's part of the fun of betting tpta;s and following on futbol24. sometimes after an important goal on futbol24 i run over to flashscores for immediate verification. they don't fuck up nearly as much but they also don't have the good sound effects.

bet365 has the best sound effect in my opinion. And oh, by the way, I have to be up at 5:21 AM in order to keep the world safe for democracy...


:ninja:

 

[hugh613]

you were serious

I've been tinkering with an actual "system" for a while now as opposed to just eyeballing games like I used to. Still need to figure out how to adjust for strength of schedule (5 goals against Wigan wouldn't be as impressive as 5 goals against Manchester City for example). Not that I'd all of a sudden discover the holy grail, mind you, but it probably would weed out a lot of the games that only look good on paper...

Now tell me everything you know about the Uzbekistan Cup game tomorrow between FC Bunyodkor and Mash'al Mubarek...

 

[ClubDirt]

i'm 1-0 betting on uzbekistan teams this year and i intend to stay that way.

 

[hugh613]

Looks like all the Egyptian league games just got cancelled due to civil unrest in most of the major centres...

YTD: 199-206-24, -32.21

Tuesday:

6/25/2013 11:00 AM International Soccer 101 Paraguay U20 (World Cup)/Mexico U20 (World Cup)* Over 2½ -124 *2 UNITS*
*Pretty much just going off the shot stats from the first round of games (Paraguay: 15 shots on goal, 8 shots on target on offense vs. Mali, 13 shots on goal, 6 shots on target on defense vs. Mali; Mexico: 20 shots on goal, 10 shots on target on offense vs. Greece, 9 shots on goal, 7 shots on target on defense vs. Greece). In other words, there should be some pace to this game (Greece's game winner against Mexico came late, so it's not as though El Tri ramped it up on offense to try and tie it up - that's just the style they play, I guess; plus, if Mali could break down Paraguay for 6 shots on target, no telling what kind of onslaught Mexico could come up with).

:cheers:

 

[hugh613]

I'm counting down the days until this ridiculous month comes to an end, but until then...

YTD: 199-207-24, -34.69

Wednesday:

6/26/2013 6:00 PM Paraguay Soccer 601 Cerro Porteno PF (PAR)/Guarani (PAR)* Over 2½ -112 *2 UNITS*

:cheers:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 200-207-24, -32.69

Adding:

6/26/2013 8:10 PM Colombia Soccer 101 Deportivo Cali (COL)/Millonarios (COL)* Over 2,2½ -121 *5 UNITS*
*Millonarios are on a run of eight straight overs at home. Deportivo Cali are on a run of five straight on the road with at least one goal scored and one goal conceded. Plus Millonarios haven't scored in two straight (both on the road, and once to Deportivo Cali) - sounds bad, but the last two times that happened this calendar year, they came back with 2 and 3 the subsequent game (both overs).

Should be at least two goals in this one, hopefully a third, a fourth and a fifth, and that should set things up nicely for the Finnish game I have circled for tomorrow morning.

:cheers:

 

[hugh613]

Futbol24 giveth, and Futbol24 taketh away (Fredy Montero was borderline offside on that last goal/no goal, but whatever... I just hope, for the linesman's sake, that the cartels didn't have a large stake on Millonarios and/or the over...)

YTD: 200-208-25, -35.71

Thursday:

6/27/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 257 HJK Helsinki (FIN-V)/IFK Mariehamn (FIN-V)* Over 2½ -113 *5 UNITS*
6/27/2013 1:05 PM Sweden Soccer 104 AIK Stockholm (SWE-A)/Helsingborg (SWE-A)* Over 2½ -128 *5 UNITS*
*Win or lose, I'm done for a week or two after this. It's just too annoying at this point to go around in circles the way I've been (plus I feel bad knowing there's a small segment thinking I'm bound to fire off a run like I did at the end of last year, which I'm pretty sure isn't going to be happening any time soon...) Anyways, these are the two games that produced the highest (and most definitive) probability of three goals or more in each of the multiple spreadsheets I've been working on (now clumsily adjusted for strength of schedule, so hopefully that produces some more workable results), so if I can't work at least a split on this, well... I guess all that time spent was pretty much for nothing.

See you in a while...

:cheers:

 

[Monger]

:thumbsup2:

 

[hugh613]

Thanks Monger. It's nice to feel smart (sort of) every once in a while. I'll see you in July.

 

[ClubDirt]

how do you feel about montreal today?

 

[hugh613]

how do you feel about montreal today?

I'm thinking 4-3 Colorado...

YTD: 202-208-25, -25.71

Sunday:

6/30/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 607 IFK Mariehamn (FIN-V)/MyPa (FIN-V)* Over 2½ -102
6/30/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 651 Seinajoen JK (FIN-Y)/AC Kajaani (FIN-Y)* Over 2½ -115
6/30/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 654 Viikingit (FIN-Y)/FC Ilves (FIN-Y)* Over 2½ -125
6/30/2013 12:00 PM International Soccer 1 Italy (Confed-Cup)/Uruguay (Confed-Cup)* Over 2½ -126
6/30/2013 12:00 PM Norway Soccer 104 Aalesund (NOR-T)/Start (NOR-T)* Over 2½,3 -118
*Those two weeks just flew by... : )

:cheers:

 

[ClubDirt]

i laid off. they were too expensive, never had much luck in that league.

:cheers:

 

[Monger]

:line:

 

[Monger]

GL Bro.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

6/30/2013 1:00 PM Iceland Soccer 804 Thor Akureyri (ISL)/Keflavak (ISL)* Over 3,3½ +116

:cheers: Thanks ClubDirt, Monger.

 

[Monger]

:badass:

 

[braves]

Nice on the over in confed game

 

[Monger]

Fuckin beasting it today. Good shit, Hugh.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 207-209-25, -21.80

Adding:

6/30/2013 3:15 PM Iceland Soccer 813 KR Reykjavik (ISL)/Fylkir (ISL)* Over 3 -119

:cheers: Thanks braves, Monger - let's keep it going.

 

[ClubDirt]

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 208-209-25, -20.80

Adding:

6/30/2013 5:00 PM Canada Soccer 304 Toronto Croatia (CAN)/Windsor Stars (CAN)* Over 3½ -135
6/30/2013 5:00 PM Ecuador Soccer 510 Deportivo Quevedo (ECU)/Barcelona Guayaquil (ECU)* Over 2½ -128
6/30/2013 6:30 PM Colombia Soccer 401 Itagui FC (COL)/Deportivo Pasto (COL)* Over 2½ +102

:cheers:

 

[ClubDirt]

you have to love that there's a guy whose sole name is fred and everyone who follows soccer knows who he is. you, with hugh#, is the closest thing i've seen to that.