Toronto_Mike
Scent of a Woman
one goal eluded you from a sweep!
June 2013
- Thread starter hugh613
- Start date
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 165-167-23, -22.62
Wednesday:
6/12/2013 6:00 PM Paraguay Soccer 301 Deportivo Carapegua (PAR)/Olimpia Asuncion (PAR)* Over 2½ -129
6/12/2013 6:30 PM Brazil Soccer 101 Atletico MG (BRA-A)/Santos SP (BRA-A)* Under 2½ -119
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/AgFeZr5ptV8" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>
:grin:
Thanks Monger, Mike.
Wednesday:
6/12/2013 6:00 PM Paraguay Soccer 301 Deportivo Carapegua (PAR)/Olimpia Asuncion (PAR)* Over 2½ -129
6/12/2013 6:30 PM Brazil Soccer 101 Atletico MG (BRA-A)/Santos SP (BRA-A)* Under 2½ -119
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/AgFeZr5ptV8" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>
:grin:
Thanks Monger, Mike.
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Back to .500 - now the hard part...
YTD: 167-167-23, -20.62
Adding:
6/12/2013 9:00 PM Brazil Soccer 109 Draw (Fluminense (BRA-A) vs Portuguesa SP (BRA-A))* +229
6/12/2013 9:30 PM USA USL Soccer 470 Salt Lake (USL-Cup)* -1½ -108 vs Charleston Battery (USL-Cup) *2 UNITS*
:ninja:
YTD: 167-167-23, -20.62
Adding:
6/12/2013 9:00 PM Brazil Soccer 109 Draw (Fluminense (BRA-A) vs Portuguesa SP (BRA-A))* +229
6/12/2013 9:30 PM USA USL Soccer 470 Salt Lake (USL-Cup)* -1½ -108 vs Charleston Battery (USL-Cup) *2 UNITS*
:ninja:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Thursday:
6/13/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 454 RoPS (FIN-V)/IFK Mariehamn (FIN-V)* Over 2½ -110
6/13/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 466 JJK (FIN-V)/FF Jaro (FIN-V)* Over 2½ -110
6/13/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 467 FF Jaro (FIN-V)* +141 vs JJK (FIN-V)
6/13/2013 12:00 PM Norway Soccer 601 Hodd (NOR-1)* +110 vs Follo (NOR-1)
:ninja:
6/13/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 454 RoPS (FIN-V)/IFK Mariehamn (FIN-V)* Over 2½ -110
6/13/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 466 JJK (FIN-V)/FF Jaro (FIN-V)* Over 2½ -110
6/13/2013 11:30 AM Finland Soccer 467 FF Jaro (FIN-V)* +141 vs JJK (FIN-V)
6/13/2013 12:00 PM Norway Soccer 601 Hodd (NOR-1)* +110 vs Follo (NOR-1)
:ninja:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
That was a splendid few hours I spent back in .500ville...
YTD: 169-172-23, -25.69
Adding:
Peru - Jose Galvez / Universidad San Martin Over 2.5 +100 *2 UNITS*
*The two worst defensive teams in Peru, and Jose Galvez has the highest goal per game average in the Primera Division @ 3.44, so hopefully this plays out a little better than that crapfest in Ireland this afternoon...
:ninja:
@braves: Looking it over, but nothing really jumps out at me (too few teams, not enough value). Might play some team totals though...
YTD: 169-172-23, -25.69
Adding:
Peru - Jose Galvez / Universidad San Martin Over 2.5 +100 *2 UNITS*
*The two worst defensive teams in Peru, and Jose Galvez has the highest goal per game average in the Primera Division @ 3.44, so hopefully this plays out a little better than that crapfest in Ireland this afternoon...
:ninja:
@braves: Looking it over, but nothing really jumps out at me (too few teams, not enough value). Might play some team totals though...
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Funny thing is, the defender clearly started dragging the San Martin forward down from outside the box, but the ref pointed to the spot anyways. Nice to have one of these go my way for a change at least...
:cheers:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 172-174-23, -23.96
Adding:
Finalnd - Ilves / KooTeePee Over 2.5 -119
Finland - PK-35 Vantaa / AC Oulu Over 2.5 -121
Norway - Fredrikstad ML -120
Sweden - Ostersunds FK / Ljungskile Over 2.5 +100
Sweden - Varberg BoIS / Falkenberg Over 3 +100
:cheers:
Adding:
Finalnd - Ilves / KooTeePee Over 2.5 -119
Finland - PK-35 Vantaa / AC Oulu Over 2.5 -121
Norway - Fredrikstad ML -120
Sweden - Ostersunds FK / Ljungskile Over 2.5 +100
Sweden - Varberg BoIS / Falkenberg Over 3 +100
:cheers:
Last edited:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 176-176-23, -21.36
Adding:
United States - Portland Timbers / FC Dallas Over 2.5 -116
Paraguay - Nacional Asuncion / Guarani Over 2.5 -116
Argentina - Rosario Central / Deportivo Merlo Over 2, 2.5 -129
United States - Tampa Bay Rowdies / San Antonio Scorpions Over 2.5 -113
United States - Columbus Crew / Montreal Impact Over 2.5 -124
Colombia - Deportivo Cali / Santa Fe Bogota Over 2.5 -104
:cheers:
Adding:
United States - Portland Timbers / FC Dallas Over 2.5 -116
Paraguay - Nacional Asuncion / Guarani Over 2.5 -116
Argentina - Rosario Central / Deportivo Merlo Over 2, 2.5 -129
United States - Tampa Bay Rowdies / San Antonio Scorpions Over 2.5 -113
United States - Columbus Crew / Montreal Impact Over 2.5 -124
Colombia - Deportivo Cali / Santa Fe Bogota Over 2.5 -104
:cheers:
Last edited:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
I was about too smash my phone against the wall at the gym for most of the 1H (JJK's goal at 51' was their first freaking shot of the game...)
:cheers:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 178-181-23, -21.25
Adding:
Spain - Segunda Liga, Soccer
Girona/AD Alcorcon 16-June-2013 11:59 AM PST
Total Over 2 and 2.5 for Game -116
*5 UNITS*
*Three of my four projection models have this going over, so... ; ) In all seriousness though, with this being more or less the end of the season, this one should be a little more straightforward:
Girona OVERALL: 1.76 GF, 1.33 GA
Girona HOME: 2.24 GF, 0.81 GA
Alcorcon OVERALL: 1.36 GF, 1.31 GA
Alcorcon AWAY: 1.05 GF, 1.71 GA
So based on probabilities, there's a very high probability that both teams score at least one goal each, and a very high possibility that Girona scores 2 or more goals (OVERALL: Girona 1.77, Alcorcon 1.39, HOME/AWAY: Girona 2.93, Alcorcon 0.65). Plus, the first three meetings this season ended 5, 5, and 2, so...
Having said that, the timing of the first goal is crucial in this one (the longer it drags on, the more of a chess match it threatens to become), but odds are this game's getting to 2, at the very least...
And as for why I wrote this up, I don't know... I guess if I'm going to throw a big one out there (and have people possibly tail, which I wish they wouldn't, but y'know...), the least I can do is provide some rationale for it.
:cheers:
Adding:
Spain - Segunda Liga, Soccer
Girona/AD Alcorcon 16-June-2013 11:59 AM PST
Total Over 2 and 2.5 for Game -116
*5 UNITS*
*Three of my four projection models have this going over, so... ; ) In all seriousness though, with this being more or less the end of the season, this one should be a little more straightforward:
Girona OVERALL: 1.76 GF, 1.33 GA
Girona HOME: 2.24 GF, 0.81 GA
Alcorcon OVERALL: 1.36 GF, 1.31 GA
Alcorcon AWAY: 1.05 GF, 1.71 GA
So based on probabilities, there's a very high probability that both teams score at least one goal each, and a very high possibility that Girona scores 2 or more goals (OVERALL: Girona 1.77, Alcorcon 1.39, HOME/AWAY: Girona 2.93, Alcorcon 0.65). Plus, the first three meetings this season ended 5, 5, and 2, so...
Having said that, the timing of the first goal is crucial in this one (the longer it drags on, the more of a chess match it threatens to become), but odds are this game's getting to 2, at the very least...
And as for why I wrote this up, I don't know... I guess if I'm going to throw a big one out there (and have people possibly tail, which I wish they wouldn't, but y'know...), the least I can do is provide some rationale for it.
:cheers:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 179-181-23, -16.25
Adding:
FIFA - Confed Cup Team Totals, Soccer
Uruguay 16-June-2013 3:00 PM PST
Team 2 Goals Over 0.5 for Game -140
*5 UNITS*
*Iker Casillas starting over Victor Valdes should make for all the difference in this one, as will Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani starting up front for Uruguay. Spain may not concede many chances, but between an out of form Casillas and the quality of striker the Uruguyans can counter with, it may only take one quality chance for this to hit (plus with Suarez's theatrics, who knows, maybe a questionable PK opportunity might come to pass).
:cheers:
Adding:
FIFA - Confed Cup Team Totals, Soccer
Uruguay 16-June-2013 3:00 PM PST
Team 2 Goals Over 0.5 for Game -140
*5 UNITS*
*Iker Casillas starting over Victor Valdes should make for all the difference in this one, as will Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani starting up front for Uruguay. Spain may not concede many chances, but between an out of form Casillas and the quality of striker the Uruguyans can counter with, it may only take one quality chance for this to hit (plus with Suarez's theatrics, who knows, maybe a questionable PK opportunity might come to pass).
:cheers:
Pyppurs
Pretty much a regular
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 182-182-23, -9.72
Adding:
Colombia - Primera A , Soccer
Bogota FC/Cortulua Tulua 17-June-2013 3:59 PM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -123
*2 UNITS*
Argentina - Primera Division, Soccer
Quilmes/Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba 17-June-2013 4:14 PM PST
Total Over 2 for Game -115
*2 UNITS*
:cheers:
Thanks Monger.
Adding:
Colombia - Primera A , Soccer
Bogota FC/Cortulua Tulua 17-June-2013 3:59 PM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -123
*2 UNITS*
Argentina - Primera Division, Soccer
Quilmes/Godoy Cruz Antonio Tomba 17-June-2013 4:14 PM PST
Total Over 2 for Game -115
*2 UNITS*
:cheers:
Thanks Monger.
Toronto_Mike
Scent of a Woman
look at you man, making a run now! GL
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 184-183-23, -8.02
Tuesday:
World Cup Qualifiers - Asia, Soccer
Australia 18-June-2013 2:29 AM PST
Handicap -1.5 for Game -120
*2 UNITS*
*When Australia play at home, they generally win at home, and they generally win by more than one goal at home; with a World Cup berth on the line and up against a depleted Iraqi side, odds are they'll win at home, and odds are they'll win by more than one goal at home.
:cheers:
Tuesday:
World Cup Qualifiers - Asia, Soccer
Australia 18-June-2013 2:29 AM PST
Handicap -1.5 for Game -120
*2 UNITS*
*When Australia play at home, they generally win at home, and they generally win by more than one goal at home; with a World Cup berth on the line and up against a depleted Iraqi side, odds are they'll win at home, and odds are they'll win by more than one goal at home.
:cheers:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 184-185-23, -12.54
Wednesday:
Finland - Veikkausliiga, Soccer
IFK Mariehamn/KuPS 19-June-2013 8:29 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -108
Finland - Veikkausliiga, Soccer
Jaro/Inter Turku 19-June-2013 8:29 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -101
Finland - Veikkausliiga, Soccer
TPS Turku/RoPS Rovaniemi 19-June-2013 8:29 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game +102
Finland - Ykkönen, Soccer
Seinajoen JK 19-June-2013 8:29 AM PST
Handicap -1.5 for Game +115
Peru - Primera Division , Soccer
Sport Huancayo/Jose Galvez 19-June-2013 8:59 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -119
Sweden - Allsvenskan, Soccer
Elfsborg/Gefle 19-June-2013 9:59 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -126
Spain - Segunda Liga, Soccer
Girona/Almeria 19-June-2013 10:59 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game +131
*Last time I took this many games... didn't work out too well. Hopefully I manage to stay above .500 this time.
:cheers:
Wednesday:
Finland - Veikkausliiga, Soccer
IFK Mariehamn/KuPS 19-June-2013 8:29 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -108
Finland - Veikkausliiga, Soccer
Jaro/Inter Turku 19-June-2013 8:29 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -101
Finland - Veikkausliiga, Soccer
TPS Turku/RoPS Rovaniemi 19-June-2013 8:29 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game +102
Finland - Ykkönen, Soccer
Seinajoen JK 19-June-2013 8:29 AM PST
Handicap -1.5 for Game +115
Peru - Primera Division , Soccer
Sport Huancayo/Jose Galvez 19-June-2013 8:59 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -119
Sweden - Allsvenskan, Soccer
Elfsborg/Gefle 19-June-2013 9:59 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -126
Spain - Segunda Liga, Soccer
Girona/Almeria 19-June-2013 10:59 AM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game +131
*Last time I took this many games... didn't work out too well. Hopefully I manage to stay above .500 this time.
:cheers:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 187-190-23, -16.19
Adding:
Paraguay – Division Profesional, Soccer
Guarani Asuncion (n)/Cerro Porteno 19-June-2013 3:29 PM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game +101
*2 UNITS*
USA - MLS, Soccer
Montreal Impact/Houston Dynamo 19-June-2013 4:59 PM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -103
*2 UNITS*
Colombia - Primera A , Soccer
Santa Fe Bogota/Millonarios Bogota 19-June-2013 5:09 PM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -133
*2 UNITS*
*Thanks braves. Pretty much just made that bet out of frustration over the US game (plus my itchy trigger finger couldn't wait til the game total dropped to 1.5 *d'oh*). Still, Costa Rica clanked one off the bar just before the half, so at least it was close (unlike a few of my games this afternoon *SMH*)...
:cheers:
Adding:
Paraguay – Division Profesional, Soccer
Guarani Asuncion (n)/Cerro Porteno 19-June-2013 3:29 PM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game +101
*2 UNITS*
USA - MLS, Soccer
Montreal Impact/Houston Dynamo 19-June-2013 4:59 PM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -103
*2 UNITS*
Colombia - Primera A , Soccer
Santa Fe Bogota/Millonarios Bogota 19-June-2013 5:09 PM PST
Total Over 2.5 for Game -133
*2 UNITS*
*Thanks braves. Pretty much just made that bet out of frustration over the US game (plus my itchy trigger finger couldn't wait til the game total dropped to 1.5 *d'oh*). Still, Costa Rica clanked one off the bar just before the half, so at least it was close (unlike a few of my games this afternoon *SMH*)...
:cheers:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 187-193-23, -22.91
Saturday:
6/22/2013 2:00 PM Spain Soccer 301 Girona (ESP-2)/Almeria (ESP-2)* Over 2½ -123 *2 UNITS*
6/22/2013 3:00 PM Paraguay Soccer 551 Nacional Querido (PAR)/Sol de America (PAR)* Over 2½ -121 *2 UNITS*
6/22/2013 4:30 PM Peru Soccer 601 Leon De Huanuco (PER)/Sporting Cristal (PER)* Over 2½ -120 *2 UNITS*
:cheers:
Saturday:
6/22/2013 2:00 PM Spain Soccer 301 Girona (ESP-2)/Almeria (ESP-2)* Over 2½ -123 *2 UNITS*
6/22/2013 3:00 PM Paraguay Soccer 551 Nacional Querido (PAR)/Sol de America (PAR)* Over 2½ -121 *2 UNITS*
6/22/2013 4:30 PM Peru Soccer 601 Leon De Huanuco (PER)/Sporting Cristal (PER)* Over 2½ -120 *2 UNITS*
:cheers:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Meh, I guess it depends on who scores first (Brazil scores first, that opens the game up; Italy scores first, they set up shop and attempt to frustrate the Brazilian attack). Plus, people are probably overestimating Italy's offensive capabilities as opposed to conceding they've played some fairly shaky defensive teams to this point. Gun to head, I guess over's the only real option but, having said that, if it goes over, it probably only just sneaks past...
Good luck.
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 189-193-23, -18.91
Pending / Adding:
6/22/2013 4:30 PM Peru Soccer 601 Leon De Huanuco (PER)/Sporting Cristal (PER)* Over 2½ -120 *2 UNITS*
6/22/2013 6:00 PM Argentina Soccer 204 Quilmes (ARG)/Tigre (ARG)* Over ½,1 -125 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
6/22/2013 7:00 PM USA USL Soccer 671 Minnesota Stars (NASL)/Carolina Railhawks (NASL)* Over 2½,3 -112 *2 UNITS*
6/22/2013 7:00 PM USA MLS Soccer 101 San Jose Earthquakes (USA-MLS)/D.C. United (USA-MLS)* Over 2,2½ -120 *2 UNITS*
:cheers:
Pending / Adding:
6/22/2013 4:30 PM Peru Soccer 601 Leon De Huanuco (PER)/Sporting Cristal (PER)* Over 2½ -120 *2 UNITS*
6/22/2013 6:00 PM Argentina Soccer 204 Quilmes (ARG)/Tigre (ARG)* Over ½,1 -125 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*
6/22/2013 7:00 PM USA USL Soccer 671 Minnesota Stars (NASL)/Carolina Railhawks (NASL)* Over 2½,3 -112 *2 UNITS*
6/22/2013 7:00 PM USA MLS Soccer 101 San Jose Earthquakes (USA-MLS)/D.C. United (USA-MLS)* Over 2,2½ -120 *2 UNITS*
:cheers:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 192-196-23, -19.89
Sunday:
6/23/2013 9:05 AM Sweden Soccer 201 Syrianska FC (SWE-A)/Atvidabergs FF (SWE-A)* Over 2½ -116 *2 UNITS*
6/23/2013 9:05 AM Sweden Soccer 202 Atvidabergs FF (SWE-A)* -150 vs Syrianska FC (SWE-A) *2 UNITS*
6/23/2013 9:30 AM Norway Soccer 1 Lillestrom (NOR-T)/Tromso IL (NOR-T)* Over 2½,3 -122 *2 UNITS*
*Good start, bad finish. Hopefully Atvidabergs come through, otherwise this is going to be a short day...
:cheers:
Sunday:
6/23/2013 9:05 AM Sweden Soccer 201 Syrianska FC (SWE-A)/Atvidabergs FF (SWE-A)* Over 2½ -116 *2 UNITS*
6/23/2013 9:05 AM Sweden Soccer 202 Atvidabergs FF (SWE-A)* -150 vs Syrianska FC (SWE-A) *2 UNITS*
6/23/2013 9:30 AM Norway Soccer 1 Lillestrom (NOR-T)/Tromso IL (NOR-T)* Over 2½,3 -122 *2 UNITS*
*Good start, bad finish. Hopefully Atvidabergs come through, otherwise this is going to be a short day...
:cheers:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Fucking sick and tired of this merry go round. Let's just blow shit up and be done with it...
Adding:
6/23/2013 11:00 AM Sweden Soccer 1101 Orgryte (SWE-S)/Ljungskile (SWE-S)* Over 2½ -123 *5 UNITS*
6/23/2013 11:00 AM Sweden Soccer 1104 Sundsvall (SWE-S)/Brage (SWE-S)* Over 2½ -127 *5 UNITS*
Adding:
6/23/2013 11:00 AM Sweden Soccer 1101 Orgryte (SWE-S)/Ljungskile (SWE-S)* Over 2½ -123 *5 UNITS*
6/23/2013 11:00 AM Sweden Soccer 1104 Sundsvall (SWE-S)/Brage (SWE-S)* Over 2½ -127 *5 UNITS*
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Think I'm going to be Tony's customer of the day...
Adding:
6/23/2013 5:00 PM USA MLS Soccer 151 Red Bull New York (USA-MLS)/Philadelphia Union (USA-MLS)* Over 2½ -115 *5 UNITS*
6/23/2013 5:30 PM Paraguay Soccer 1010 Rubio Nu (PAR)/Cerro Porteno (PAR)* Over 2½ -132 *5 UNITS*
*0-2 (which is a very real possibility) and that should be it for quite a long while...
Adding:
6/23/2013 5:00 PM USA MLS Soccer 151 Red Bull New York (USA-MLS)/Philadelphia Union (USA-MLS)* Over 2½ -115 *5 UNITS*
6/23/2013 5:30 PM Paraguay Soccer 1010 Rubio Nu (PAR)/Cerro Porteno (PAR)* Over 2½ -132 *5 UNITS*
*0-2 (which is a very real possibility) and that should be it for quite a long while...
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 196-201-23, -24.94
Adding:
6/23/2013 7:00 PM Halftime Soccer 154 Colorado (USA-MLS)/Portland Timbers (USA-MLS)* Over 3½ +120 for Game *2 UNITS*
6/23/2013 8:30 PM Argentina Soccer 186 Boca Juniors (ARG)/Godoy Cruz (ARG)* Over 2 -139 *2 UNITS*
6/23/2013 11:00 PM USA MLS Soccer 157 LA Galaxy (USA-MLS)/US Chivas (USA-MLS)* Over 2½ -121 *5 UNITS*
*Now that I've calmed down a bit (sort of)... Plus, after having done the math, I guess I'm right around where I should be with that many losses anyways (accounting for -110, which I know isn't accurate for soccer, but still). This merry go round for the past few weeks is still pissing me off to no end, but whatever...
:cheers:
Adding:
6/23/2013 7:00 PM Halftime Soccer 154 Colorado (USA-MLS)/Portland Timbers (USA-MLS)* Over 3½ +120 for Game *2 UNITS*
6/23/2013 8:30 PM Argentina Soccer 186 Boca Juniors (ARG)/Godoy Cruz (ARG)* Over 2 -139 *2 UNITS*
6/23/2013 11:00 PM USA MLS Soccer 157 LA Galaxy (USA-MLS)/US Chivas (USA-MLS)* Over 2½ -121 *5 UNITS*
*Now that I've calmed down a bit (sort of)... Plus, after having done the math, I guess I'm right around where I should be with that many losses anyways (accounting for -110, which I know isn't accurate for soccer, but still). This merry go round for the past few weeks is still pissing me off to no end, but whatever...
:cheers:
GatorsLeafsBills
Pretty much a regular
I was at the bar having dinner and they had the MLS game on and I was cheering for you man. :cheers:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Thanks man. It would be nice to get some so-called "easy" games on a somewhat regular basis but, alas, I guess that's not meant to be my thing here at CTG (digging myself huge holes and kicking my coffee table day after day, that's my thing...)
:cheers:
