June 2013

hugh613

hugh613

Pretty much a regular
YTD: 153-160-22, -36.80

Wednesday:

6/5/2013 8:00 PM Brazil Soccer 30 Paranaense (BRA-A)/Ponta Preta SP (BRA-A)* Over 2½ +122 *2 UNITS*

:ninja:
 
Nice hit, Hugh. Was on the São Paolo over. Not sure what the hell those fools were doing.
 
boshshower_medium.gif
 
YTD: 154-160-22, -34.36

Thursday:

6/6/2013 8:00 PM Brazil Soccer 52 Coritiba (BRA-A)* +117 vs Fluminense (BRA-A) *2 UNITS*

:ninja:

Thanks Monger, CD.
 
YTD: 155-160-22, -32.02

Friday:

6/7/2013 6:05 PM International Soccer 208 Colombia (WC-Qual)/Argentina (WC-Qual)* Over 2½ -105 *2 UNITS*

:ninja:
 
Thanks Mike. Looks like Messi's starting on the bench (my Spanish needs some definite work...), but Falcao, Higuain and Aguero should be enough to get this over.

:cheers:

p.s. you watching RUS/POR on Sportsnet? This announcer's got one hell of a strange accent...
 
hugh613 said:
Thanks Mike. Looks like Messi's starting on the bench (my Spanish needs some definite work...), but Falcao, Higuain and Aguero should be enough to get this over.

:cheers:

p.s. you watching RUS/POR on Sportsnet? This announcer's got one hell of a strange accent...
Click to expand...

IDK if you had the same announcer I had while watching online but my guy sounded identical to Sasha Baren Cohen
 
YTD: 155-161-22, -34.12

Adding:

6/7/2013 8:50 PM Brazil Soccer 710 Joinville Esporte Clube (BRA-B)/Avai (BRA-B)* Over 2½ -119 *2 UNITS*

:ninja:

@Gators: There was a definite Eastern European sound to his voice...
 
hugh613 said:
Thanks Mike. Looks like Messi's starting on the bench (my Spanish needs some definite work...), but Falcao, Higuain and Aguero should be enough to get this over.

:cheers:

p.s. you watching RUS/POR on Sportsnet? This announcer's got one hell of a strange accent...
Click to expand...

I am watchin the 2nd showing of the Rus/Por game wow this announcer is definitely weird
 
Monger said:
Had that over as well. Couldn't believe they didn't score in the 2nd half.
Click to expand...
This seems to be a recurring theme for me in 2013 (like my Internacional bet from last week with goals at 14' and 16'... and nothing afterwards).

It wouldn't bother me so much if not for the fact that so many of my games get drawn out in similar fashion (two goals in the 1H then nothing until the 80' or an hour spacing between goals) with nothing easy in between. Time to re-tweak the methodology I guess...

:cheers: braves, Mike, Monger
 
I love how Cricuima's now 4-1 O/U on the season, with their only under being when I threw down on the total. FML.

YTD: 155-162-22, -36.50

Saturday:

6/8/2013 8:00 PM Brazil Soccer 163 Botafogo RJ (BRA-A)/Ponta Preta SP (BRA-A)* Over 2½ -109 *2 UNITS*

:ninja:
 
Fucking ridiculous. Just absolutely fucking ridiculous...

Adding:

6/8/2013 10:30 PM USA MLS Soccer 210 Whitecaps (USA-MLS)/Seattle (USA-MLS)* Over 2½ +106 *5 UNITS*
*If this doesn't hit (which it probably won't) I'll have to reload (which I probably won't), so you may not see me for a while...

:announce:
 
Thanks guys. Nice to get a relatively easy one once every 10 wagers or so...

YTD: 156-163-22, -33.38

Sunday:

6/9/2013 12:00 PM Norway Soccer 853 Ranheim (NOR-1)/Stabaek (NOR-1)* Over 2½,3 -129 *2 UNITS*
*Feel a little like cxbbum for betting such an 'exotic' league, but hard to argue with his numbers, so maybe it's time to investigate these lower divisions every once in a while...

:cheers: Mike, Monger
 
"exotic" leagues are where the money is at. The lines can be more inflated and also since it's smaller the bookies are not quick to make adjustments like they do with Serie A, BPL, La Liga, Bundeslia, etc.

End of the day, the lines are more true in these smaller leagues and are not out there to play tricks with you.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
"exotic" leagues are where the money is at. The lines can be more inflated and also since it's smaller the bookies are not quick to make adjustments like they do with Serie A, BPL, La Liga, Bundeslia, etc.

End of the day, the lines are more true in these smaller leagues and are not out there to play tricks with you.
Click to expand...
I know what you're saying but, at the same time, it's not as though I'm a professional gambler - there's only so much information I can take in, and only so much time I can devote to this (not to mention only so much money I'm prepared to lose and, boy, have I been losing across the board this year...)

If I ever learn any advanced computer techniques like 'scraping' (I'm still trying to learn SQL so I can share my shot statistics with you guys), maybe I could make more of a go with it using my rudimentary formulas but, for now, I think I'll just stick with the top divisions as a general rule (I can't be betting the Vatican City Women's Superliga U-21 on a daily basis : )

:cheers:
 
Last edited:
Toronto_Mike said:
"exotic" leagues are where the money is at. The lines can be more inflated and also since it's smaller the bookies are not quick to make adjustments like they do with Serie A, BPL, La Liga, Bundeslia, etc.

End of the day, the lines are more true in these smaller leagues and are not out there to play tricks with you.
Click to expand...

Sorry mike but how can u say lines can be more inflated in these leagues, then tha next paragraph say lines are more true?

gl hugh
 
tru said:
Sorry mike but how can u say lines can be more inflated in these leagues, then tha next paragraph say lines are more true?

gl hugh
Click to expand...

inflated is probably the wrong word, my mistake. What I'm saying is that you'll see a lot of teams that are favoured -2.5, they are huge lines but it is the true line because most often, those teams actually end up winning 10-0 lol.

So pretty much these small leagues you will see a huge difference in quality between the bottom team and the top team.
 
hugh613 said:
I know what you're saying but, at the same time, it's not as though I'm a professional gambler - there's only so much information I can take in, and only so much time I can devote to this (not to mention only so much money I can afford to lose and, boy, have I been losing across the board this year...)

If I ever learn any advanced computer techniques like 'scraping' (I'm still trying to learn SQL so I can share my shot statistics with you guys), maybe I could make more of a go with it using my rudimentary formulas but, for now, I think I'll just stick with the top divisions as a general rule (I can't be betting the Vatican City Women's Superliga U-21 on a daily basis : )

:cheers:
Click to expand...

Well the thing is, what cxxbum is doing is very good, he stays consistent that he will only bet overs and will never go the other way. The only way he loses is if a game goes 0-0.
For me it's not about necessarily finding exactly player info, but I need to find numbers that correlate to the odds given. Certain leagues just have a certain style of play, for example, most of the Norwegian leagues are very offensive and thus the standard of goals is expected. It is extremely hard for me to play overs in a league that really focus' on defence. Also trying to find a league where the parity is huge can be key. This is why the English leagues are tougher because there isn't a big gap and usually if there is the lines bcome way too big. As big of a club Man Utd is, you don't see them whipping teams big, they win anyway possible. But in these smaller leagues where players are trying to get to the next level, they go for the kill and never hold back. Thus the youth leagues tend to have more goals because they prefer to play more skillful football than conservative.
The Hungarian u19, Swedish u21, Czech Youth and u19 are prime examples of this.
Now there are some leagues where the totals are extremely deceiving, eg Canadian Soccer League you've seen it, how much of a joke this is, heck the other day I saw a +2.5 underdog win 2-0 lol the o/u was 3.5 was a joke. there is no consistency in that league because the transfer policy is bullshit. So I usually tend to avoid that league altogether.
 
YTD: 157-163-22, -31.38

Adding:

6/9/2013 5:30 PM Brazil Soccer 354 Nautico (BRA-A)/Coritiba (BRA-A)* Over 2½ -126 *2 UNITS*
6/9/2013 5:30 PM Brazil Soccer 360 Paranaense (BRA-A)/Vitoria (BRA-A)* Over 2½ -109 *2 UNITS*

:ninja:

Thanks Mike.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
inflated is probably the wrong word, my mistake. What I'm saying is that you'll see a lot of teams that are favoured -2.5, they are huge lines but it is the true line because most often, those teams actually end up winning 10-0 lol.

So pretty much these small leagues you will see a huge difference in quality between the bottom team and the top team.
Click to expand...

Gotcha

:shake:
 
well at least you got 1 over, the other one....jesus 1-0 after the 1st minute and not a single goal after...what a joke
 
Toronto_Mike said:
well at least you got 1 over, the other one....jesus 1-0 after the 1st minute and not a single goal after...what a joke
Click to expand...
That actually doesn't really bother me that much - I watched the last few minutes of each half, and it was pretty obvious Coritiba didn't have much interest in pushing forward once they took the lead. Still, funny how the lower juiced of the two turns out to be a goal fest (reminds me of a poster over at Covers who always swore that totals in a certain price range never hit *LOL*). I am, however, starting to become more and more intrigued by the notion of only playing 1H - it's pretty rare that I don't get at least one goal in the 1H, and Lord knows it's rare for me to get 3 in the 2H after a scoreless 1H - only downside is that I can't buy back in unless I'm home (or betting with Pinnacle), but definitely something to think about...

Adding:

6/9/2013 8:30 PM Argentina Soccer 301 Boca Juniors (ARG)/Racing Club (ARG)* Over 1½,2 -124 *2 UNITS*

:announce:
 
How bad could the forwards on Racing be that the keeper takes the penalty kick?

:thinking:
 
YTD: 159-164-23, -30.90

Monday:

6/10/2013 3:00 PM Rep Ireland Soccer 451 Dundalk (IRE-P)/Drogheda United (IRE-P)* Over 2½ -104 *2 UNITS*

:announce:
 
I like how everything I passed on this afternoon ends up hitting... but not the one I actually bet. *SMH*

YTD: 159-165-23, -32.98

Adding:

6/10/2013 6:10 PM Argentina Soccer 154 Union (ARG)/Newells Old Boys (ARG)* Over 2½ -128 *2 UNITS*
*Not really a 'steam' play, but it's pretty rare to see an Argentina total set at 2½, let alone with this much juice, so either I'm getting suckered in big time, or this one goes over with relative ease. Let's find out which it is...

:ninja:
 
hugh613 said:
I like how everything I passed on this afternoon ends up hitting... but not the one I actually bet. *SMH*

YTD: 159-165-23, -32.98

Adding:

6/10/2013 6:10 PM Argentina Soccer 154 Union (ARG)/Newells Old Boys (ARG)* Over 2½ -128 *2 UNITS*
*Not really a 'steam' play, but it's pretty rare to see an Argentina total set at 2½, let alone with this much juice, so either I'm getting suckered in big time, or this one goes over with relative ease. Let's find out which it is...

:ninja:
Click to expand...

i was ready to get back in the game and play this one thinking it was the late game. it's never easy. :shake:
 
YTD: 160-165-23, -30.98

Adding:

6/10/2013 8:15 PM Argentina Soccer 158 San Lorenzo (ARG)* -157 vs Argentinos Juniors (ARG) *2 UNITS*
*I know, I know... but this is a major let down spot for Argentinos Juniors after beating River Plate last weekend, so the notion of them managing to post back to back wins (never mind on the road where they haven't won since September) seems a little unrealistic. A draw's always possible, I suppose, but San Lorenzo's been running hot as of late - plus they've won the last three head to head, and there hasn't been a draw in the series in almost five seasons, so...

:ninja:

Thanks CD.
 
This San Lorenzo game is starting to remind me why I normally avoid juice when it comes to soccer...

Tuesday:

6/11/2013 8:00 AM International Soccer 201 Netherlands (Friendly)* -1½ -123 vs China (Friendly) *2 UNITS*
*All I know is the Netherlands last seven wins have been by 2 goals or more and China... well, China lost to Uzbekistan last week.

:ninja:
 
YTD: 161-166-23, -32.12

Adding:

6/11/2013 6:30 PM Brazil Soccer 507 Figueirense (BRA-B)/Ceara (BRA-B)* Over 2½ -118 *2 UNITS*
6/11/2013 6:30 PM Brazil Soccer 510 Joinville Esporte Clube (BRA-B)/Guaratingueta (BRA-B)* Over 2½ -120 *2 UNITS*
6/11/2013 6:30 PM Brazil Soccer 510 Joinville Esporte Clube (BRA-B)* +143 vs Guaratingueta (BRA-B) *2 UNITS*
6/11/2013 7:00 PM Paraguay Soccer 604 Sol de America (PAR)/Libertad (PAR)* Over 2½ -127 *2 UNITS*
*I don't really like double dipping on the same game, but that Joinville line doesn't make any sense at all. Hopefully I don't get screwed on both...

:ninja:
 
YTD: 164-167-23, -27.62

Adding:

6/11/2013 8:50 PM Brazil Soccer 516 America Mineiro (BRA-B)/Avai (BRA-B)* Over 2½ -129 *5 UNITS*

Thanks Mike, hound.
 
I think Tahiti got their shit kicked in by Chile's u20 squad last week. Atleast I think that was the case.
 
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