June 19 Discussion ~ Will Astros Ever Lose?

Teams that have won at least 12 in a row are 13-3 last 3 years...of course CLE is 13-1 and everyone else 0-2, mostly courtesy tribe's 22 game win streak in 2017

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Dodgers screw up the catcher
Barnes great with Maeda Grandal sucks 6.48 ERA both starters improved with the day off but this is very bad for Dodgers. Chatwood got a very good new catcher Locked in Detroit.
 
Tend to think the Astros are on PEDS.
Their hitting has jumped huge. Arizona and Dodgers probably. Yankees in withdrawal?
 
When Yanks butched Houston Houston was a weakling. Now most runs in baseball. Pretty hard to believe the speed of the upgrade
 
On 4 I certainly did not. On 5 I certainly did like but with this catcher?
What do Arizona and Seattle have in common. Both 9-2 on Tuesday
 
A's and Tigers qualify on this

Road dog with rest off a win and starter off avg start with at least 48% wins over last 2+ years
This has went 11-5 this year as AVG +130 dog
AD and rest > 0 and season >= 2016 and p:W and WP > 48 and month < 10 and s:NQS
SU: 40-27 (0.30, 59.7%) avg line: 132.8 / -143.7 on / against: +$2,587 / -$2,998 ROI: +38.6% / -31.0%
RL: 48-19 (1.80, 71.6%) avg line: -164.3 / 146.4 on / against: +$1,857 / -$2,128 ROI: +16.9% / -31.4%
OU: 31-36-0 (0.55, 46.3%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$825 / +$237 ROI: -11.2% / +3.2%

This year
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Not saying I really like the Tigs or A's, just pointing out this angle I ran across...has some logic with decent team off win with rest and starter with something to prove
 
What site are you pulling up game matchups, ba vs pitcher?

I went back to Rays today F5. Split up game, F5 yesterday. At 220 that’s .310 Ball just through 5 innings with a good pitcher. Feel like after two comeback wins the bats cool off for a day.

Really like the M’s coming off an off day vs a team that played 2 yesterday.

Like AZ too. Teams going opposite directions.
 
chips t said:
What site are you pulling up game matchups, ba vs pitcher?

I went back to Rays today F5. Split up game, F5 yesterday. At 220 that’s .310 Ball just through 5 innings with a good pitcher. Feel like after two comeback wins the bats cool off for a day.

Really like the M’s coming off an off day vs a team that played 2 yesterday.

Like AZ too. Teams going opposite directions.
Click to expand...

dailybaseballdata

statcast savant also works
 
Funny game Texasv at Royals
Strong under ump Hamels on 5
Both have trouble with this ump
Texas should get the money because J H at night 6.20 ERA. Thinking Texas first half and over currently. Even with this ump the splits situation screams over
 
Re Tampa first half. Makes little difference to me in theory but Houston almost lost last night. I find it very unlikely that they slow down first half after playing down all last game.
 
Rich Hill coming off the shelf to face the Cubs who hit lefties pretty well. Hill hasn't been right all year except for his first start. Like the Cubs to put up at least 5
 
VirginiaCavs said:
dailybaseballdata

statcast savant also works
Click to expand...

Thanks

I’m taking Tampa F5 whole series unless they win tonight. Astros came off a 10 day road trip w/o a day off. The Astros play better on road(was case last year too so there is good sample) I think 220 is a good buy for F5. Hopefully Snell is up 1-0 after 5 before the worn out pen gives it up.
 
chips t said:
Thanks

I’m taking Tampa F5 whole series unless they win tonight. Astros came off a 10 day road trip w/o a day off. The Astros play better on road(was case last year too so there is good sample) I think 220 is a good buy for F5. Hopefully Snell is up 1-0 after 5 before the worn out pen gives it up.
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Hoping worn pen doesn't give it up lol :) Pen has plenty left I think, like a couple of strong long relievers who are well rested
 
Just a matter of time till Greg holland gets into a game. Trying to think of a way to take advantage of that? Maybe if we see him warming in the pen just live bet the phils (hopefully they trailing) or over?? Gotta be some way to exploit the fact they gonna let this clown blow some games for us before they finally just cut bait and eat the money this dude stealing!!! Freaking bum had more walks than strikeouts in his rehab assignments, really earning his spot on the team!!! Holland said don’t worry about the pathetic minor league numbers, that he has figured it out. Why not take this losers word for it??!??? Unreal he stealing 14 mil and nats just got Herrera for next to nothing to help a pen that already light years better than cards!! At least bowman was who got sent down or dl’ed, I was fearful holland was gonna steal a spot from one our youngsters that starting to come around.

Outside that 10th by bowman last night I have actually thought the cards pen might be starting to shape up. Hicks and Norris been great all year, now Mayers starting to get little traction and looked great last night. Tuivailala looking strong of late. Gomber has given us a lefty we can trust. Now it all going back to hell as this overpaid bum gonna steal innings from one the more deserving guys!!
 
Marsski said:
Rich Hill coming off the shelf to face the Cubs who hit lefties pretty well. Hill hasn't been right all year except for his first start. Like the Cubs to put up at least 5
Click to expand...
Its funny. I bet him and you expect them to put up 5.
I think you are very wrong. He has excellent history at the site, On 6+ he has been very good average 1.65 ERA
and he works very well with the catcher they saved for him and that 11-5 record at the site says he should not be getting 15 cents. Lets GAMBLE
 
By the good news. Later this month Houston plays at Tampa 4 games. More chances to bet them
 
Adding average under in the game.
Ump likes the road team and the under small because Montgomery has bad home splits
 
tuck321 said:
Its funny. I bet him and you expect them to put up 5.
I think you are very wrong. He has excellent history at the site, On 6+ he has been very good average 1.65 ERA
and he works very well with the catcher they saved for him and that 11-5 record at the site says he should not be getting 15 cents. Lets GAMBLE
Click to expand...

Well, I took Cubs TT over 4.

His blister problem may not go away this whole year. I look at what he's done this year: gave up 3 to Cincy (who don't hit lefties well usually), gave up 5 to Zona, 7 to Zona, 3 to SF in their very pitcher friendly park, and dominated in a shutout in his first start. In 4 of last 5 starts, the opposing team ended up with 5 runs or more.

Now, he comes off the shelf and faces the Cubs with 6 starters over .260 vs lefties including Bryant @ .396.

I think the Cubs probably get 4 off of him, and tack on at least one vs. the bullpen. If he comes off the shelf and pitches like he did on Opening Day then I'll tip my cap to him.

Yeah, lets GAMBLE.
 
tuck321 said:
Its funny. I bet him and you expect them to put up 5.
I think you are very wrong. He has excellent history at the site, On 6+ he has been very good average 1.65 ERA
and he works very well with the catcher they saved for him and that 11-5 record at the site says he should not be getting 15 cents. Lets GAMBLE
Click to expand...

Blind trend betting. Very funny indeed, thanks
 
The umpire in NY is rather chalky
Have bet Seattle first half will add for game but small
The ump in Reds really likes the road teams but on a 1 inning sample has killed Boyd small increase
Re the Cubs game I bet with a great road ump and a great pitcher on 6+ getting 15 cents. As a grownup I accept my results and fades are welcome
 
I have no real preference either way. Just curious how much stock you put into his numbers from a decade ago at that park?
 
I like the over in laa again even tho don’t love the price. Might look to sell a half run or something.

Under 9 even money in kc a play for me even tho neither pitcher w great history w ump, more a bet against those lineups I think veteran pitchers can prob navagate their way around. Kc under a .700 ops collectively vs lefties, rangers same against righties. Kc offense been abysmal last week w a .508 ops. Kinda like rangers as well.

Dunno that I want to be against Boston but berrios getting +160ish kinda tempting.

Braves have fallen off vs lefties a little but think they can hit Garcia.
 
Both reasonable. A lot of people love Bettis. My only problem is a high ERA on 5. I like Hamel on 5 a little more but honestly uncertain
 
2daBank said:
I’m really scared to get involved w cards while holland appearance looming. Weaver hasn’t been all that great either. Hell over might be worth a look if you think cards can hit few bombs.
Click to expand...

And if Netherlands comes in over basically guaranteed lol
 
2daBank said:
I’m really scared to get involved w cards while holland appearance looming. Weaver hasn’t been all that great either. Hell over might be worth a look if you think cards can hit few bombs.
Click to expand...

If they bring in that shit in close game im changing channel. Chucky can watch that shit for me and report how it goes
 
VirginiaCavs said:
And if Netherlands comes in over basically guaranteed lol
Click to expand...

Kinda what I’m thinking. I mean the guy walked more in minors than struck out, he can talk bout numbers don’t matter and figuring it out all he wants, all I can say is if he figured it out wouldn’t he have been able to handle minor leaguers?? Lol
 
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