Ivy League Week 3 Games

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FRIDAY, SEPT. 30

TIME	GAME	COVERAGE
7 p.m.	Penn at Dartmouth -13 / 42	ESPNU | Stats

SATURDAY, OCT. 1

TIME	GAME	COVERAGE
12 p.m.	Howard at Yale -24 / 54.5	ESPN+ | Stats
1 p.m.	Princeton -2 /48.5 at Columbia	ESPN+ | Stats
1 p.m.	No. 10 Holy Cross -2.5 / 47 at Harvard	ESPN+ | Stats
1 p.m.	Cornell at Colgate -2.5 / 44	ESPN+ | Stats
6 p.m.	Brown at Rhode Island -14.5 / 66.5	FloFootball | Stats

I just set the lines in the Ivy League pick'em last night. I'm still traveling, but will be back in the friendly confines tonight.

This season I had wanted to really focus on Ivy League football, I mean really, like make it my own favorite conference and teams. Reality is there is just so much football, Ivy and FCS football has been added in with the rest. To think I would have all my early kick TVs set to Ivy League, that is what I wanted, but once all the other games are on, I can't just focus on Ivy football.

Anyway, this is a pretty exciting week. Another Friday night game which I always enjoy. Dartmouth looking to bounce back from a shocking upset in OT at Sacred Heart last week as a 14.5 pt favorite, that snapped a 20 game consecutive win streak Dartmouth had vs non-conference opponents (dates to 2014). Dartmouth running O is very strong, but their running QB isn't as capable as hoped passing. Howard was the 2021 rushing QB, their good passing QB has graduated, so it was assumed Howard could produce both through the air and the ground this year, but has yet to happen. Rarely is a coach ever so blunt, but in his press conference this week the Penn head coach said "Stopping the run is going to be pivotal. We’ll put all of our assets into doing that, and we’ll see whether (Howard) can beat us with his arm." Penn has played a very very soft schedule, but their D is should be pretty solid here making for an interesting matchup. On the other side, the Penn O is proving to be fairly impotent. Penn has scored a total of 9 points in the 1H vs Colgate and Lafayette. The finals have both been Penn wins, 25-14 and 12-0. Penn doesn't run especially well and throws a lot of short passes. Last week Sacred Heart threw 16 passes behind the line of scrimmage and Dartmouth failed to stop or tackle well in space. I would suspect Dartmouth is better prepared this week. They do get back their only returning starter at LB from 2021 in Marques White, he is the leading returning tackler who missed the first 2 games this year. The Dartmouth secondary is down this year (4 of 5 starters gone) and they took a hit as S Cam Maddox is now out for the season. Last year Dartmouth was a 9 pt week 3 favorite at Penn and won 31-7. As I have been saying, Penn O is in better shape early this season compared to early last season, however, that stability is not resulting in a lot of yards or points. And we know the Dartmouth O and D are both down compared to last year. I think Penn's D could give them a chance, but am concerned that Penn O doesn't have what it takes, especially on the road vs a team that was embarrassed last week. The Dartmouth O from the 2H last week also causes concern, they are however better suited for a bounce back. It all comes down to QB Howard. Penn D is good enough to slow the traditional run game, so Howard is going to have to make plays that count. Dartmouth has won the last 4: 31-7, 28-15, 37-14, 16-13. Dartmouth ATS this year is 0-2 1H, 0-2 2H and 0-2 full game vs the number. Both games have gone over however. The final vs Stetson was 35-13 and last week the OT final at SH was 38-31. Both Penn games have gone Under. Penn is 2-0 ATS both as favorites in less than impressive wins vs Colgate 25-14 and Lafayette 12-0.

 

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OK, sitting in a hotel before airport wanted to think about some of these other games. There are a couple big games.

Princeton "only" -2 at Columbia. It says a lot. Last year Princeton was -19.5 home vs them. Columbia hasn't scored more than 10 ppg vs Princeton the last 3 years, all Princeton wins 24-7 last year, 21-10 2019 and 45-10 2018. Columbia won 28-24 in 2017, but Princeton has won 9 of the last 10 and if you know Columbia football, you know they are historically one of the worst Ivy league teams (Princeton owns a 73-16-1 record against them). But times are changing on the upper west side of Manhattan. They were 7-3 last year and actually have 3 winning seasons over the last 4. This is the most successful 4 year run Columbia has had in 75 years! Princeton was co-Ivy Champ last year and has won 4 Ivy Titles the last 10 years.

So far this year Columbia has had pretty dominant wins vs weaklings Marist and Georgetown. Joe Green is looking good in year 2 as starting QB, the OL is strong and the receivers are good. Columbia has had a pretty good D the last several years and while I expected them to take a step back this year, so far (vs poor teams) they are playing well - the starting unit is still pretty good, the depth is unknown. This will be a big test. Princeton O traditionally is good even with having a different starting QB for like 5 straight seasons. Princeton WRs are the best in the Ivy. But the Princeton OL looks poor, it wasn't great last year and the new QB Stenstrom hasn't handled pressure well. This will be the key for Columbia, get penetration and throw off Stenstrom's timing. The Princeton OL allowed a league high 35 sacks last year and have been sacked 6x already this year vs the likes of Valpo and Lehigh. Princeton also hasn't run the ball well this year. So Columbia covering those receivers and getting pressure is their key.

Columbia's assumed #1 RB Ryan Young, a multi-year starter/contributor, hasn't been seen yet this year and while they have run ok on Marist and Georgetown, it is going to get harder now. The OL should be up to the task and the O has opened up this year as coaches are more comfortable letting Green throw it around more.

Princeton D is rebuilding their back 8, the 3-man DL is their strength. Last year Princeton shut out both Stetson and Lehigh. This year Stetson scored 14 and Lehigh scored 17 on them (Lehigh D returned a pick-six to help that total). Last year through the first two games Princeton was a perfect 6-0 ATS, 1H, 2H and full game. This year they are just 1-5 ATS with only a 2H cover vs Stetson.

Columbia also has an exceptional FG K in Felkins who has been starting since his freshman year, 3 years now and will end his career as their all time leading kicker and scorer. He has length, with multiple 50y kicks to his credit (school record 53 yarder this year), they won't be afraid to let him kick long. Princeton on the other hand has the Ivy's best Punter in Sexton.

The home opener in Columbia and expectations are up. This is a huge game, the best in the Ivy this week and I'll have it on one of the TVs for sure. Last year's game was just 10-7 in the 4th Q. Last week the other Co-Defending Ivy Champ went down on the road, it could happen again this week to Princeton.

 

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The other good game this week is Holy Cross at Harvard. I won't have nearly as much information on this one. But Holy Cross is good, quite good, and seeingHarvard as a home dog is rare. The last two times Harvard was a home dog (2019 vs Dartmouth +9.5 and 2018 vs Princeton +22) they lost both straight up, but did cover each losing by a single score in each. This line is pretty small however.

Harvard hasn't played that great this year. Some of their rushing numbers look good, but it's mostly due to one big run in each game after being bottled up for the rest of the carries. QB Dean looked much better 1H last week than he did week 1, but still doesn't look like a champion level QB and neither does the entire O.

The great matchup here is going to be watching a good Holy Cross O vs this Harvard D. Harvard D got burned in the 2H last week at Brown, they nearly blew 28-0 lead actually. Penalties have hurt Harvard quite a bit in both games, holding back their O and boosting the opposing team's O.

Not as interesting as the Princeton - Columbia game due to this being an out of league game, but still a good one. Harvard has won the last 3 and if Holy Cross' dominant win vs Yale told us anything 2 weeks ago, it says this Holy Cross team is one to be reckoned with.

 

[HUNT]

good read, gl bro

 

[s--k]

Dartmouth beat Princeton last year, so while they did officially share the Ivy Championship with equal 7-1 records, Dartmouth was really the champ in my mind. They have lost back-to-back games as 2 TD favorites this year now! Penn D was up to the challenge (if you can call the Dartmouth O a challenge right now) as the Dartmouth O and QB Howard continues to have no answers and the D clearly is missing tackles and recognition. I lost on Dartmouth 2H (a Dartmouth win by 3 would've covered that), but won on the game Under. Needless to say, after just 1 TD each in regulation of course I was nervous the Und 43.5 would be in jeopardy after both teams scored TDs in OT1. At that point, I just wanted out with the split. 23-17 Final.

 

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Wow. Holy Cross surging up to 6.5 from the 2.5 early line. At some point that Harvard D is going to be tough to bet against at home.

 

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Harvard put up a good fight, 3 point game at HT and a 6 point game late, but ended up losing by 9.

Columbia was not ready for the next step. Did see some of the same weaknesses with the Princeton OL and QB under pressure, but the biggest thing was the Princeton D really shutting down the Columbia O.

Yale led 27-6, only won 34-26

Cornell pulled a road upset for the second time this season this time over Colgate

Brown played the best team they've faced this year at Rhode Island and didn't fair so well after covering their first 2 of the season

We'll do it again next week!