Hulu's NFL 2017 Ranting and Raving

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#3DownNation
Hi all. I've never done an NFL thread at this site before or anywhere for several years. I always figured there was enough NFL banter here without yet another capper who manages to hit 53% and maybe pull 5 units by season's end. NFL markets are tough to beat on a consistent basis these days, at least for me anyway.

But I do enjoy getting my thoughts down in one place and some of the point/counterpoint discussion that goes on so I'll try to keep this up through the season. And of course, I will rant and rave about things that few people find interesting as is my way.

Over the past 5 years my NFL results have been as follows...
2012 -3.1*
2013 +4.1*
2014 +5.1*
2015 -8.1*
2016 +10.0*
Combined +8 units in 5 years...not terribly impressive. That's why my NFL unit size is 1/5 of what I bet in the NBA and 1/10 of what I bet in the CFL.

This year I will be focusing on taking fewer opening positions and more 2H plays as they have been more consistently profitable for me over the past few years.

BOL to everyone this year and three cheers for this forum which is really something special.
 
I don't play a lot with season win totals because I just have too many other things going on when they are released so the number is usually gone by the time I have my act together. I did get down on one however...

1* Cincinnati o8.5 wins +114

Also liked Tennessee over and Miami under but not at the present numbers.
 
Week 1

I'll try to do better in the future posting plays as I make them but this week I am behind the game and have a few down already over the past week.

1.5* ATL / CHI under 50 -108
1* Parlay New England / Houston ML -125
1.5* Tennessee -2 -110

Other leans I am looking at...most of these will be eliminated - feel free to talk me on or off of any of these. That's why they're here.

NY Giants +4 - number is gone, not sure if any value left here
NY Jets +8.5 - hold your nose special
Detroit +2
OAK / TEN over 50.5
Cleveland +9 - will be somewhat better than many people think...also big road fav public trap creating value here
LA Rams - not at anything above 2.5 so very unlikely
PIT / CLE 1H u23.5 - if I play this it will be a shameless tail of broadwayjoe
 
.75/.5 Cincinnati -2.5/ML -110/-145 Neglected to post this a cpl days ago

1* PIT / CLE 1H u23.5 -107

Unplayed leans still remaining...

NY Jets +8.5 - hold your nose special
Detroit +2
OAK / TEN over 50.5
Cleveland +9 - will be somewhat better than many people think...also big road fav public trap creating value here
Seattle +3 - wont be able to cheer if I take this as I'll be watching with a bunch or drunk Packer fans in Milwaukee
BAL / CIN over 40.5
 
Week 1 Results

NFL Sides 1-2 -2.20*
NFL Totals 2-3 +0.02*
NFL 2H
Parlay/Teaser 1-1 -0.25*

NFL Overall 4-6 -2.43*

Awful week 1 but in retrospect I can say I spread myself too thin trying to cap NFL, NCAA and CFL all while traveling. I clearly wasn't prepared as well as I should have been. Anyway, on to week 2.
 
Big card this week. Hope I'm not going too deep here but there's a lot to like IMO. Best of luck everyone.

1* Indianapolis +7 -110
1* / .25* Green Bay +3 / ML -108 / +138
1* / .5* Washington +3 / ML -118 / +133
1* / .25* Philadelphia +5.5 / ML -107 / +210
1.5* New England -6 -103
1.25* / .25* Miami +3.5 / ML -107 / +164
1.5* Teaser Baltimore -1.5 / Denver +8.5 -120
1.5* Oakland -13.5 -112
 
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Week 2 Results

NFL Sides 7-4 +3.73*
NFL Totals 2-3 +0.02*
NFL 2H 1-2 -1.55*
Parlay/Teaser 3-2 +1.05*

NFL Overall 13-11 +3.25*

Bounceback week.
 
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Week 2 Results

NFL Sides 7-4 +3.73*
NFL Totals 2-3 +0.02*
NFL 2H 2-2 -0.23*
Parlay/Teaser 3-2 +1.05*

NFL Overall 14-11 +4.57*
 
Figured I'd fire an opening salvo at the books. I like both these plays and fear the line may not hold for me.

1.5* / .5* Jacksonville +4 / ML -110 / +171

1* Cincinnati +8.5 -105
 
Do you think playing in London a advantage for jags? I suspect it should be they seem to go every year so the preparation and logistic side should be in their favor, although it is a whole new staff.
 
staying away from London, i never trust myself with those games...nice work last week and gl this week hulu
 
2daBank said:
Do you think playing in London a advantage for jags? I suspect it should be they seem to go every year so the preparation and logistic side should be in their favor, although it is a whole new staff.
Click to expand...

There may be a small advantage for the Jags here over any other neutral field for the reasons you stated. Many of the players and staff have been here before and its not a first time novelty sort of thing. They've dealt with the time difference and figured out the best ways to cope I think. I also happen to have the Jags home field as the lowest HFA in the NFL so if anything London is the same as their home field or maybe a half point better in my mind.

But this bet is more about Balty beating up on 2 very poor teams and now having to travel to face a legit defence. I made the line 2 so any time I can get a dog on the other side of the 3 in a game lined under 40, I'll take it. Also, as I recall, the field in London is not a fast track at all and is often in crap condition. This game has 19-17 written all over it.
 
Tito said:
staying away from London, i never trust myself with those games...nice work last week and gl this week hulu
Click to expand...

I know what you mean. This is the first one I've gotten involved with and I'm really betting it in spite of the location rather than because of it.
 
Seeing some other on this one made me look at it closer and I agree, this line is 2-3 points too high. I watched a good part of both these teams games last week and the Saints aren't quite as bad as New England made them look. The Panthers offense otoh didn't impress me at all. They should have an easier time against New Orleans porous D but Brees and co should be able to score enough to keep up and maybe even win.

1.5* / .25* New Orleans +6.5 / ML -109 / +231
 
Hulu said:
There may be a small advantage for the Jags here over any other neutral field for the reasons you stated. Many of the players and staff have been here before and its not a first time novelty sort of thing. They've dealt with the time difference and figured out the best ways to cope I think. I also happen to have the Jags home field as the lowest HFA in the NFL so if anything London is the same as their home field or maybe a half point better in my mind.

But this bet is more about Balty beating up on 2 very poor teams and now having to travel to face a legit defence. I made the line 2 so any time I can get a dog on the other side of the 3 in a game lined under 40, I'll take it. Also, as I recall, the field in London is not a fast track at all and is often in crap condition. This game has 19-17 written all over it.
Click to expand...

Certainly has that kind of low scoring grind it out feel to it. Definitely understand taking the points, long as bortles can stay out of his teams way id think it plays out much like you have it. Thanks for response.
 
Getting a bit on this now because I'm not sure which way it goes. If it gets more favorable toward kickoff I may add.

1 / .25 San Francisco +3 / ML -118 / +127

eta added a bit on the +3 to bring down the vig
 
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Probably should've been on this earlier but it almost seems too easy.

1* ATL / DET over 50.5 -107
 
Full card recap for week 3...

2* / .5* Jacksonville +4 / ML -110 / +171
1.5* BAL / JAX 1H under 19.5 -103
1* Cincinnati +8.5 -105
1.5* / .25* New Orleans +6.5 / ML -109 / +231
1* ATL / DET over 50.5 -107
1.5* BAL / JAX 1H under 19.5 -103
1.5* CLE / IND 1H under 20.5 -103
1.5* Parlay MIA / NE / PHI ML +108
1.5* Teaser Indy +7.5 / Pitt -1 -120

May get involved in the Monday night game but we'll see how she goes. BOL to everyone on Sunday.
 
Hulu said:
Probably should've been on this earlier but it almost seems too easy.

1* ATL / DET over 50.5 -107
Click to expand...

Yea 49 would have been nice but this where I played it as well, think we still getting better of number as I think it closes above 51.. really hard to envision either team not scoring 24 minimum.
 
Results after 3 weeks

NFL Sides 10-4 +10.24*
NFL Totals 3-5 -2.07*
NFL 2H 4-2 +2.05*
Parlay/Teaser 3-4 -2.25*

NFL Overall 20-15 +7.97*

Ok week, adding 3.4 units. Really shouldn't have tangled with Pittsburgh or Miami on the road in those situations. Also killed myself on those 1H unders. But I'm not so sure I wouldn't have taken them again. Live and learn.

Lean to zona tonight at +3 or better but likely won't bet it.
 
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