All good points Sammy. Week 2 is always a struggle for me. I feel like its the best week to be contrarian because the market overreacts to week 1. So that's why you'll notice a contrarian bent to my thinking this week beyond pure X's and O's and personnel.
Ottawa -2 - Really wanted a 1 or 1.5 here because the Redblacks play so many close games of late but hopefully I won't get burned with the -2. Seems like all the buzz this week is about Sasquatch and how they outperformed expectations. Their defense looked more solid than expected. Chris Jones idea of platooning Cam Judge with Sam Hurl at MLB turned out to work pretty well and the secondary made few errors. Also, rumors of their offensive line's demise were greatly exaggerated. Collaros faced some pressure but not every play. But to me the story in week 1 was more about Toronto's rustiness due to many of their starters not playing a snap of preseason ball. They were rusty and flat and it showed...but of course all anyone is talking about is the green riders. I still think they are an average football club and I think they look more human this week. Betting the redblacks is risky considering they had a week one bye and have not faced live game action but I am willing to go against this here. Ottawa's season was ended by Saskatchewan and they've been talking about this game all through camp. Its been a rallying cry for them and they want some revenge here. I'm willing to lay a unit that they get it. Also of note, DB Nick Marshall was added to the DL this week and now it looks like Chris Jones will employ Duron Carter exclusively as a DB this game. I'm not sure how I feel about that but even if he succeeds as a DB, you're down your star receiver. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
Montreal +2 & ML - The ALs are going to win some games this season so the trick is to look for those 3 or 4 good spots where they might be able to pull it off. I think this is one. Chris Streveler didn't look great but not as awful as he could have either. I think he was hugely aided by the lightning delays which seriously put the Esks off their game for much of the second half. Maybe this is my own bias but it seems the history of this league is littered with QBs who played one good game and then came back down to earth (I could list about dozen right off the top of my head). Heading out on the road against a really good defense after that gruelling 6 hour game, I think this is where Streveler falters. On the other side, I saw bits of Drew Willy that were reminiscent of his first season when he burst onto the scene. He didn't manage to keep it up all game and the final 2 minute drill was a sad joke but I saw enough that if he can build on it, the ALs may win even 5 or 6 games this year. I just have a gut feel that this is a spot they get one of them. I may add if this reaches 3.
Hamilton +7.5 & over 55 - Edmonton is still a great team and tied for first with Calgary on my current power rankings but they showed last week that some units are still a work in progress. The OL and DL still have to show some improvement for starters. They were painfully thin at DB last week with starters Colquhoun, Adams and Grymes all out as well as backup Hightower. This week Grymes and Hightower return but they are still thin. LB Adam Konar and DT Mike Moore were also added to the DL this week. Its looking like 2017 all over again for the eskies. For whatever reason, Hamilton has played Edmonton close over the past few season despite residing at the opposite end of the standings. I think its something like 6-2-1 ATS over the past 4 seasons, including a respectable 4-0 ATS in Edmonton for the tabbies. I saw enough from the cats last week to show me they can hang with good teams and I think they can hang within a score in this one. I made the line 6 and would only bet it at 7.5 or higher. As for the total, there is no question that Edmonton can score and I think against the Eskies banged up defense the cats can too. I made the number 55.5 but my gut tells me this one could be a shootout.