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HORSE RACING LIVE IN-GAME
- Thread starter wiseplayer
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aplous
Donkey Hater
Yes it’s pretty awesome
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Walkthough of Saturday late pick 5 at Santa Anita (I'm dodging Churchill due to weather)
Race 6 - 6F stake for 3 yo cal breds - Average winning speed rating is 98, none of these lightly raced horses have made that number, though a few are close
1 - Decent on turf last out but still well short of needed speed. First race on dirt he was done after 4F
2 - Best efforts have been on turf, lots of experience, speed number is short
3 - turns back from 7F win last out, but pace was mediocre. Likes to be on the lead but others will be faster.
4 - another vet with 8 starts, best have been on turf, ran state bred stake in Jan and finished 8 lengths back
5 - turns back from 3 routes, last on turf was within shouting distance of winning speed number and was against open company, has been able to pass horses to win, will be among the fittest here, should see pace setup for his style - WIN CONTENDER
6 - Freshest horse, ran two quarterhorse races in Los Al in April, no sign he can run fast at 6F
7 - Speed horse, won 4 of first 5 on synthetic, then faded going two turns at Santa Anita, the turnback should be right in his wheel house, puts on blinkers which could make him break even faster, which will be important there's speed outside him - WIN CONTENDER
8 - Impressive debut winner at this track and distance, now comes back as favorite, nothing wrong with this one yet but will see challenge upfront from #7 - WIN CONTENDER
9 - Triple crown nominated, won Grade 3 sprint at 2, then had a setback last Aug at Delmar, now returns off layoff to track where he ran two competitive sprints against worthy competition, will see race setup perfectly in front of him - WIN CONTENDER
The question is will the speed hold up or will it set the table for a pass in the stretch? Of the speed horses I'll take #8 on the rise over #7 trying to find his footing at Santa Anita
A - 5,8,9
B - 7
Race 7 - 1 mile Turf for optional claimers - speed rating 90, class ratings of all seven are close
1 - 2 for 20 lifetime but has been close at this level twice in five tries, bit of a money burner though with no wins in last 9 spanning a year
2 - lightly raced but improving, effort last time one level below this was a winner and would contend here, wish J/T combo was better but have to respect progress, win was from front end setting a swift pace - WIN CONTENDER
3 - leaves Baltas barn for unknown team and drops out of graded stakes competition, 0 for 3 at this distance, 2 for 3 at longer gives pause, otherwise certainly fast enough - WIN CONTENDER
4 - Likes to be on front end, but not as strong as #2, 0 for 4 at distance, 0 for 3 at level, not suggests he'll wire this field effectively
5 - French import, was winless there, then light bulb switched on with Delmar win last July, took long break only to comeback and win one level below this one off the bench in Feb. Gets the top turf rider as his mount, Has not been in quick races or at this class level, but needs to be respected - WIN CONTENDER
6 - best closer in the field, will need a big pace and may get it, won last time in third try at lower level, so in form, gets decent mount too. Probably not good enough but you'll need to sweat out his late run - MILD WIN CONTENDER
7 - second time for Mandella after coming from Chad Brown barn, was highly considered last year while winning two stakes and competing in three graded stakes, was competitive off the layoff at this level and now should be tighter, too much back class to not use - WIN CONTENDER
Lots of good win choices in this one despite the small field, need to whittle it to up and comers and the big back class horses
A - 2, 3, 7
B - 5, 6
Race 6 - 6F stake for 3 yo cal breds - Average winning speed rating is 98, none of these lightly raced horses have made that number, though a few are close
1 - Decent on turf last out but still well short of needed speed. First race on dirt he was done after 4F
2 - Best efforts have been on turf, lots of experience, speed number is short
3 - turns back from 7F win last out, but pace was mediocre. Likes to be on the lead but others will be faster.
4 - another vet with 8 starts, best have been on turf, ran state bred stake in Jan and finished 8 lengths back
5 - turns back from 3 routes, last on turf was within shouting distance of winning speed number and was against open company, has been able to pass horses to win, will be among the fittest here, should see pace setup for his style - WIN CONTENDER
6 - Freshest horse, ran two quarterhorse races in Los Al in April, no sign he can run fast at 6F
7 - Speed horse, won 4 of first 5 on synthetic, then faded going two turns at Santa Anita, the turnback should be right in his wheel house, puts on blinkers which could make him break even faster, which will be important there's speed outside him - WIN CONTENDER
8 - Impressive debut winner at this track and distance, now comes back as favorite, nothing wrong with this one yet but will see challenge upfront from #7 - WIN CONTENDER
9 - Triple crown nominated, won Grade 3 sprint at 2, then had a setback last Aug at Delmar, now returns off layoff to track where he ran two competitive sprints against worthy competition, will see race setup perfectly in front of him - WIN CONTENDER
The question is will the speed hold up or will it set the table for a pass in the stretch? Of the speed horses I'll take #8 on the rise over #7 trying to find his footing at Santa Anita
A - 5,8,9
B - 7
Race 7 - 1 mile Turf for optional claimers - speed rating 90, class ratings of all seven are close
1 - 2 for 20 lifetime but has been close at this level twice in five tries, bit of a money burner though with no wins in last 9 spanning a year
2 - lightly raced but improving, effort last time one level below this was a winner and would contend here, wish J/T combo was better but have to respect progress, win was from front end setting a swift pace - WIN CONTENDER
3 - leaves Baltas barn for unknown team and drops out of graded stakes competition, 0 for 3 at this distance, 2 for 3 at longer gives pause, otherwise certainly fast enough - WIN CONTENDER
4 - Likes to be on front end, but not as strong as #2, 0 for 4 at distance, 0 for 3 at level, not suggests he'll wire this field effectively
5 - French import, was winless there, then light bulb switched on with Delmar win last July, took long break only to comeback and win one level below this one off the bench in Feb. Gets the top turf rider as his mount, Has not been in quick races or at this class level, but needs to be respected - WIN CONTENDER
6 - best closer in the field, will need a big pace and may get it, won last time in third try at lower level, so in form, gets decent mount too. Probably not good enough but you'll need to sweat out his late run - MILD WIN CONTENDER
7 - second time for Mandella after coming from Chad Brown barn, was highly considered last year while winning two stakes and competing in three graded stakes, was competitive off the layoff at this level and now should be tighter, too much back class to not use - WIN CONTENDER
Lots of good win choices in this one despite the small field, need to whittle it to up and comers and the big back class horses
A - 2, 3, 7
B - 5, 6
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 8 - 6F stake for cal breds, 3 YO, par speed is 95, named for the great Evening Jewel
1 - closer turning back, has not shown enough yet in four previous state bred stakes, all at least 3 lengths back
2 - good turf sprinter moving to dirt for barn that has had success doing so, gets one of the better jockeys, tough to predict how she'll do here - MYSTERY HORSE
3 - two time cal bred stakes winner moves to California Chrome's old barn, gets top jockey, tried turf last time to no avail, now goes back to one turn where she's 3 for 3, should help - WIN CONTENDER
4 - another decent turf sprinter now trying dirt for first time, again tough to predict - MYSTERY HORSE
5 - can't ignore sprinter from Miller barn, coming back down from Golden Gate with two strong wins, has been very good at 5 1/2F, needs to prove it at 6 - WIN CONTENDER
6 - two for two but comes out of quarterhorse win, will be challenged here to get the 6 panels
7 - generally slow two turner on the cutback and from turf to dirt, would be a big surprise
8 - another turf to dirt sprinter, this was has poor speed numbers, would need a big jump forward
9 - four time turf winner (including two open company stakes) cuts back to one turn on dirt, where she's placed in both previous tries, there's talent there - WIN CONTENDER
10 - comes out of similar races as many of these, on turf and on dirt, and never was on top, no reason to think different here
Closer examination shows that many of these came out of similar races - the early season turf races that were dominated by #9, and a 7F stake last Nov won by #3. Need to use them and the resurgent Miller runner. An upset though by the mystery horses would not be a surprise
A - 3,5,9
B - 2,4
1 - closer turning back, has not shown enough yet in four previous state bred stakes, all at least 3 lengths back
2 - good turf sprinter moving to dirt for barn that has had success doing so, gets one of the better jockeys, tough to predict how she'll do here - MYSTERY HORSE
3 - two time cal bred stakes winner moves to California Chrome's old barn, gets top jockey, tried turf last time to no avail, now goes back to one turn where she's 3 for 3, should help - WIN CONTENDER
4 - another decent turf sprinter now trying dirt for first time, again tough to predict - MYSTERY HORSE
5 - can't ignore sprinter from Miller barn, coming back down from Golden Gate with two strong wins, has been very good at 5 1/2F, needs to prove it at 6 - WIN CONTENDER
6 - two for two but comes out of quarterhorse win, will be challenged here to get the 6 panels
7 - generally slow two turner on the cutback and from turf to dirt, would be a big surprise
8 - another turf to dirt sprinter, this was has poor speed numbers, would need a big jump forward
9 - four time turf winner (including two open company stakes) cuts back to one turn on dirt, where she's placed in both previous tries, there's talent there - WIN CONTENDER
10 - comes out of similar races as many of these, on turf and on dirt, and never was on top, no reason to think different here
Closer examination shows that many of these came out of similar races - the early season turf races that were dominated by #9, and a 7F stake last Nov won by #3. Need to use them and the resurgent Miller runner. An upset though by the mystery horses would not be a surprise
A - 3,5,9
B - 2,4
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 9 - 1 Mile Turf Maidens, Par speed 88, #13 and #14. A mix of firsters getting a tough ask to tussle with a bunch of improving maidens
Firsters 3,6,11,12 - Of this group #6 is the most interesting, as Yakteen is good with turf debuts and Prat is as good as there is on the lawn. May be worth using if the experienced horses don't impress
1-Nearly won at this level over 9F last time out, rallying into a slower pace, sharp workout on the books now, ground saving trip coming, Rispoli is great on turf, should be ready - WIN CONTENDER
2-Ran an even 4th in a turf sprint last time, now stretches back out, trainer is only 5% on the sprint to route, nothing eye catching
4-Ran hard early but faded in his second start, now gets lasix which could help, not very well bet up to this point, now 5/1 here, seems like we might have missed the memo
5-Has not impressed in two previous turf routes at this level, although caught four wide last time before stalling, nothing screaming out here
7-Bit of an enough unknown here, first time running in ten months, first time route, first time turf, his dirt race stunk, he gets a low % jockey for this one, if I looking at unknown quantities I'd rather have #6
8-Ran poorly with a ground saving trip last time, at this level but at 9F, that was on first lasix, could improve at second time, his race two back gets him close, there are worse in here - WIN CONTENDER
9-Last race was best, finishing 3rd, but was 47/1 and has never been better than 20/1 until today's 8/1 morning line. This might give you an indication of what we're dealing with here.
10-Looong layoff for this 4YO, off since Dec 2018, his 2YO races with 18 months of maturity could make him very tough, trainer not great with long layoffs but this horse showed real talent in 2018, can't dismiss - WIN CONTENDER
Not the most formidable group here, which puts #6 into the mix for me.
A 1,6,10
B 8
Race 10 - 5 1/2F for cal bred maiden claimers, not the lowest level but on their way, par speed 84
Firsters 2 & 12 - always hesitant to put $ on a first time maiden claimer, as the trainers never saw enough to want to try them in the regular maiden ranks, of the two #12 has a little potential, but the sire is more distance oriented, will likely pass on both
1-well beaten in two tries against maidens, now gets blinkers although trainer has not had success with the move, there are better maiden droppers in here - MINOR WIN CONTENDER
3- closer style but has not had much success with it, short sprint doesn't bode well, not much going for him
4- another maiden dropper, was decent last year at Delmar, but then they tried a turf route to no avail and this year a turf sprint with no success, now getting back to his best run - WIN CONTENDER
5-easily showed the best early speed of anyone in the field last time, even though it was on turf, still an advantage against non-winners, trainer had a winner yesterday and won the opener today, so he's make good moves - WIN CONTENDER
6-0 for 1 at maiden claiming level, but now gets blinkers and unlike #1 this trainer has had success with the move, could really jump up today, just wish he was dropping in class - WIN CONTENDER
7-five time runner, all way to slow, 0 for 3 at level, easy pass
8-ran badly at this level seven months ago, now trying it again, nothing stands out
9-first try was against maidens in Dec, did not go well, now gets the big class drop, tough to see any edge
10-first try was against maidens 11 months ago, again did not go well, now gets the big class drop, has been working decent but there's just too many better ones in here
11-drops in class, moves from turf to dirt, trainer and jockey do well in these spots, should be quick early and gets to see his competition inside him, has a big shot - WIN CONTENDER
Its a sprint without a lot of early speed, which to me favors the two that do have it. They should control things and make these youngsters pass them, which is hard to do.
A 5, 11
B 1,4,6
PICK 5 TICKET - 5,8,9 / 2,3,7 / 3,5,9 / 1,6,10 / 5,11
May play some B's on some small tickets
Firsters 3,6,11,12 - Of this group #6 is the most interesting, as Yakteen is good with turf debuts and Prat is as good as there is on the lawn. May be worth using if the experienced horses don't impress
1-Nearly won at this level over 9F last time out, rallying into a slower pace, sharp workout on the books now, ground saving trip coming, Rispoli is great on turf, should be ready - WIN CONTENDER
2-Ran an even 4th in a turf sprint last time, now stretches back out, trainer is only 5% on the sprint to route, nothing eye catching
4-Ran hard early but faded in his second start, now gets lasix which could help, not very well bet up to this point, now 5/1 here, seems like we might have missed the memo
5-Has not impressed in two previous turf routes at this level, although caught four wide last time before stalling, nothing screaming out here
7-Bit of an enough unknown here, first time running in ten months, first time route, first time turf, his dirt race stunk, he gets a low % jockey for this one, if I looking at unknown quantities I'd rather have #6
8-Ran poorly with a ground saving trip last time, at this level but at 9F, that was on first lasix, could improve at second time, his race two back gets him close, there are worse in here - WIN CONTENDER
9-Last race was best, finishing 3rd, but was 47/1 and has never been better than 20/1 until today's 8/1 morning line. This might give you an indication of what we're dealing with here.
10-Looong layoff for this 4YO, off since Dec 2018, his 2YO races with 18 months of maturity could make him very tough, trainer not great with long layoffs but this horse showed real talent in 2018, can't dismiss - WIN CONTENDER
Not the most formidable group here, which puts #6 into the mix for me.
A 1,6,10
B 8
Race 10 - 5 1/2F for cal bred maiden claimers, not the lowest level but on their way, par speed 84
Firsters 2 & 12 - always hesitant to put $ on a first time maiden claimer, as the trainers never saw enough to want to try them in the regular maiden ranks, of the two #12 has a little potential, but the sire is more distance oriented, will likely pass on both
1-well beaten in two tries against maidens, now gets blinkers although trainer has not had success with the move, there are better maiden droppers in here - MINOR WIN CONTENDER
3- closer style but has not had much success with it, short sprint doesn't bode well, not much going for him
4- another maiden dropper, was decent last year at Delmar, but then they tried a turf route to no avail and this year a turf sprint with no success, now getting back to his best run - WIN CONTENDER
5-easily showed the best early speed of anyone in the field last time, even though it was on turf, still an advantage against non-winners, trainer had a winner yesterday and won the opener today, so he's make good moves - WIN CONTENDER
6-0 for 1 at maiden claiming level, but now gets blinkers and unlike #1 this trainer has had success with the move, could really jump up today, just wish he was dropping in class - WIN CONTENDER
7-five time runner, all way to slow, 0 for 3 at level, easy pass
8-ran badly at this level seven months ago, now trying it again, nothing stands out
9-first try was against maidens in Dec, did not go well, now gets the big class drop, tough to see any edge
10-first try was against maidens 11 months ago, again did not go well, now gets the big class drop, has been working decent but there's just too many better ones in here
11-drops in class, moves from turf to dirt, trainer and jockey do well in these spots, should be quick early and gets to see his competition inside him, has a big shot - WIN CONTENDER
Its a sprint without a lot of early speed, which to me favors the two that do have it. They should control things and make these youngsters pass them, which is hard to do.
A 5, 11
B 1,4,6
PICK 5 TICKET - 5,8,9 / 2,3,7 / 3,5,9 / 1,6,10 / 5,11
May play some B's on some small tickets
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Very memorable Preakness for me on NBC right now. Our youngest daughters wedding was that day in Deep Creek, MD, about 180 miles due west of Baltimore. We had an outdoor ceremony and a tented reception set up. We got absolutely drenched moving all the chairs and the ceremony back into the tent. Then about 4 hours later we watched the same storm engulf that Preakness. Then Pharoah romped and we got excited, because we had tickets for the Belmont.
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