HonestD 2018 MLB System Thread

1-1 day yesterday.

Updated Forum Record: 10-6 (+4.25 units)


Updated System Record

Favorites System: 64-20 +34.4u 25% ROI (Favorites winning by an average of 2.2 runs per game)
Dogs System: 39-34 +27u 37% ROI
D2F System: 9-4 +4.1u 26% ROI


Slow but sure GRIND!
 
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HonestD said:
1-1 day yesterday.

Updated Forum Record: 10-6 (+4.25 units)


Updated System Record

Favorites System: 64-20 +34.4u 25% ROI (Favorites winning by an average of 2.2 runs per game)
Dogs System: 39-34 +27u 37% ROI
D2F System: 9-4 +4.1u 26% ROI


Slow but sure GRIND!
Click to expand...

nice work

have you noticed any monthly trends, beginning of season, pre- and post AS. specific game of series?
 
Pyppurs said:
nice work

have you noticed any monthly trends, beginning of season, pre- and post AS. specific game of series?
Click to expand...

Thank you.

I'm trying to figure out a formula for Google Sheets to break down what the Database and Systems have done by the week and month. There's been very low variance from what I can tell. Nothing as far as the game # of series. I have far less data points than Mrpickem does.
 
Thanks Mike.

I forget, do you like NBA?

I'll have to come get u and well go out for wings and watch some sports at Buffalo.
 
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Going to roll a couple of my own picks.
Indians -195
Twins -172


(Orioles +170 and +1.5 -106) *Dogs System Play This will be interesting.
 
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Giants -152 *Favorites System Play


Just a FYI. I will attempt to post all system plays exactly 15 minutes before first pitch until said otherwise.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Heh HonestD will be able to afford it eh!
Click to expand...

Yeah.

Me, Henry and a few of his friends have been betting the systems since beginning of May. Going to start betting all the dogs on the RL now as well to up the potential win amount. When you're used to more plays, it's not always easy some nights to stick with "just the system" like we've been trying. I paid the price today betting the Twins and Indians, which I had no business betting. Thank god they were small fuck around bets, but still, from a principle standpoint I fucked up. and I'm pretty pissed, especially since they got crushed LOL.
 
HonestD said:
Yeah.

Me, Henry and a few of his friends have been betting the systems since beginning of May. Going to start betting all the dogs on the RL now as well to up the potential win amount. When you're used to more plays, it's not always easy some nights to stick with "just the system" like we've been trying. I paid the price today betting the Twins and Indians, which I had no business betting. Thank god they were small fuck around bets, but still, from a principle standpoint I fucked up. and I'm pretty pissed, especially since they got crushed LOL.
Click to expand...

My motto in life is: discipline with betting, no discipline with drugs :)
 
It's been pretty easy actually compared to how difficult I thought it'd be. Mostly because I've been keeping busy doing work related shit and not sitting in front games all night looking for action.
 
Before today I was wondering if there was going to be some sort of regression on the dog plays but maybe not.
 
Welp. It's been an up and down day, but a profitable one to bring in the week's end. *My two personal bets completely shit the bed today though and I deserve to be spanked. :beat:




Favorites System went 0-2 (-3u)
Dogs System went 2-0 (+3.4u) plus +2u on the RL for an overall 4-0 (+5.4u)
Overall day 4-2 +2.4u

All dogs system games will also be bet on the RL as well. Just around 33% of the losses in the system come by exactly one run, and should give the system a chance for some more profit at relatively low risk.



Will post overall updated system later.
 
Here is a two week cumulative update of the system games I've posted. There may be a couple games that I bet and are on my sheet that aren't shown here but that's probably because I didn't have time to post. I've done the best I can though.

System Update.jpg

Can't compare to all those amazing Instagram guys who NEVER lose, but it's still holding steady after 21 weeks.
 
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T-Rex said:
Only rode the RL, but ill take a win!
Click to expand...

A win is a win brotha.

I've followed baseball the last couple years more closely than ever and it used to be tough taking these big dogs, but now I actually look forward to betting them.
 
August 20, 2018

Updated System Record: 19-11 (+945)
Favorites System: 9-4 (+239)
Dogs System: 10-5 (+956)
D2F System: 0-2 (-$250)



White Sox +146 and +1.5 (-150) *Dogs System
 
Interesting Stat

These are the three most profitable and three least profitable teams in the database so far this season.

Most profitable:
1. Giants 15-5 (+$1149)
2. Athletics 10-2 (+1027)
3. Blue Jays 10-4 (+$688)

Least Profitable:
1. White Sox 5-15 (-$947)
2. Royals 2-10 (-$718)
3. Dodgers 5-6 (-$586)
 
I've decided for those interested, I will post an update around noon eastern of "possible" plays. Most games I've already ruled out by this point so update should help.

Giants *Favorites System
Mariners *D2F System


These plays are not final.
 
Wouldn't be surprised if its a no play day. We'll see. I doubt the Giants will make it. I'm sure that one will close at about a 50/50. All the big favorites are way too pricey.
 
August 21, 2018

Updated System Record: 21-11 (+1191)
Favorites System: 9-4 (+239)
Dogs System: 12-5 (+1202)
D2F System: 0-2 (-$250)


White Sox -108 * D2F System
 
August 21, 2018

Updated System Record: 21-12 (+1083)
Favorites System: 9-4 (+239)
Dogs System: 12-5 (+1202)
D2F System: 0-2 (-$358)



Phillies +139 and +1.5 (-153) *Dogs System
 
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