HonestD 2018 MLB System Thread
- Thread starter HonestD
- Start date
Welcome aboard.
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
Haha I hear you there. Thankfully they got the job done. Had the Cubs ML as well but for some reason when I joined it took a while before I could actually post or view threads.
Thank you for the welcomes everyone!
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
HonestD your name is already a mind game with me, gl
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
Is that a bad thing?
Bushleague
sharp as a butter knife
Welcome to the site
Good luck on your action
Good luck on your action
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
It's all good HonestD. Just playing. Nice to meet you.
DeadEyeDuckie
Pretty much a regular
Congrats on the win! Definitely looking forward to your contributions, best of luck!
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
VirginiaCavs fan has recommended that I explain my system. It's nothing too complex, but there were some things I started noticing last season, and I told myself I'd start betting it for real money this season.
The first criteria, which deems a play I call it. "database play" has to do with the line move and what it looks like. Pretty much every line will close above or below what it opens at, but we're looking for a specific type of movement. Most of you probably look at the movements by numbers (-210 to -215 to -220, etc) but if you look at the line movement charts it gives you a much clear and concise idea about the move. I'm looking for consensus moves. A consensus move, will move only in one direction, and that is up, via the chart. There can be slight dips the other way, but be careful as dips the other way are contradictory to what we're doing. I usually allow a dip of up to 5-7 dollars and no more than a few small dips the entire betting cycle.
That is a pretty close to what an ideal chart looks like. There are a couple small dips back towards the Rays, but no big deal.
That's a chart we don't want. There's too much indecisiveness in the betting.
I've got a database of games from Day 1 of the 2018 season just based off the charts alone and they are yielding positive results.
I then did some data sorting and came up with a few "trends or systems". Favorites, Dogs, and Dogs to Favorites.
Since about a month ago, once I had some charts built up, my friends and I started to bet only games that fit the three system requirements and have done very well. On the main page you will see the criteria for the three systems, you can sort the data to match the criteria I have given and I think you'll like what you see.
I have attached a spreadsheet of games up until I think today
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wdTf6xfaCUgEvz1js3TwvG_2wb2olL2shBAmP1TDe9Q/edit?usp=sharing
The win loss record formula didn't translate into google sheets, so if someone can help out with that it would be greatly appreciated.
Any questions please feel free to ask, but please no criticisms, like I said, this works for "me" and it's nothing I deem to be the best thing in the world.
The first criteria, which deems a play I call it. "database play" has to do with the line move and what it looks like. Pretty much every line will close above or below what it opens at, but we're looking for a specific type of movement. Most of you probably look at the movements by numbers (-210 to -215 to -220, etc) but if you look at the line movement charts it gives you a much clear and concise idea about the move. I'm looking for consensus moves. A consensus move, will move only in one direction, and that is up, via the chart. There can be slight dips the other way, but be careful as dips the other way are contradictory to what we're doing. I usually allow a dip of up to 5-7 dollars and no more than a few small dips the entire betting cycle.
That is a pretty close to what an ideal chart looks like. There are a couple small dips back towards the Rays, but no big deal.That's a chart we don't want. There's too much indecisiveness in the betting.I've got a database of games from Day 1 of the 2018 season just based off the charts alone and they are yielding positive results.
I then did some data sorting and came up with a few "trends or systems". Favorites, Dogs, and Dogs to Favorites.
Since about a month ago, once I had some charts built up, my friends and I started to bet only games that fit the three system requirements and have done very well. On the main page you will see the criteria for the three systems, you can sort the data to match the criteria I have given and I think you'll like what you see.
I have attached a spreadsheet of games up until I think today
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wdTf6xfaCUgEvz1js3TwvG_2wb2olL2shBAmP1TDe9Q/edit?usp=sharing
The win loss record formula didn't translate into google sheets, so if someone can help out with that it would be greatly appreciated.
Any questions please feel free to ask, but please no criticisms, like I said, this works for "me" and it's nothing I deem to be the best thing in the world.
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Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Best of luck today.
If I understand that situation correctly, you're basically hopping on the side where the money is coming in consistently right before the game starts? So you're almost always going to get the worst line?
If I understand that situation correctly, you're basically hopping on the side where the money is coming in consistently right before the game starts? So you're almost always going to get the worst line?
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
It’s all about the line move, but yeah it’s gotta be fairly consistent in the move the entire bet cycle, not just before the game. Whether it’s being altered by the bets or money doesn’t matter because at the end of the day that’s only speculation on our end.
Right now, favorites with high ML % and high RL % are hitting at about 80% and winning on the run line about 80% in the wins. Setting a cap at -210ish means I need to hit above 67-68% to make money, however, the average favorite comes out to about -160, so I actually need to win even less than that to just make money.
I totally understand it goes against what is popular belief, but in almost 20 weeks of consistent winning, I’m gonna ride it out for a while.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
kinda surprised u took SF cause when I look at the line movement it went up a bit then way down and closed back up to where it started...do you only use the last 6-8 hours and no overnight lines? Just asking because it's a different concept that I dont remember coming across.
View attachment 33971
View attachment 33971
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
24 Hours out. Every game on the spreadsheet is consistent with the 24 hour "opening line."
+170 is what I had it at. The White Sox were also a play, but I wasn't home to post it. I had them opening at +153 and closing at +139.
You're an SQL guy. You should take my spreadsheet and run those parameters I have listed on the sheet.
+170 is what I had it at. The White Sox were also a play, but I wasn't home to post it. I had them opening at +153 and closing at +139.
You're an SQL guy. You should take my spreadsheet and run those parameters I have listed on the sheet.
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
Thank you man!
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
Not really. I don't cap baseball so if it's not in my database, I have no opinion.
I have the Indians as an official play and leans on the Cards and Pirates.
You're welcome glad it peaks your interest
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HonestD
Pretty much a regular
Updated Record since Posting 5-1 (+3.93u)
Mets -140 ($140/$100) D2F System*
May have 1-2 more system plays later. Will post if so.
Access to any leans that may not be posted as actual system plays can be seen on the sheet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wdTf6xfaCUgEvz1js3TwvG_2wb2olL2shBAmP1TDe9Q/edit
Mets -140 ($140/$100) D2F System*
May have 1-2 more system plays later. Will post if so.
Access to any leans that may not be posted as actual system plays can be seen on the sheet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wdTf6xfaCUgEvz1js3TwvG_2wb2olL2shBAmP1TDe9Q/edit
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HonestD
Pretty much a regular
Good luck T-Rex. I personally, don't like the Cards tonight that much, but the Rays look promising. :shake:
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
Strange. I got an alert for the post but T-Rex was quoted
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
When I replied to his message it inserted that quote I quoted earlier from your post asking how old those Kershaw games were. I edited/deleted that quote right after it inserted that.
HonestD
Pretty much a regular
August 11, 2018
Rangers +189 (100/189) *Dogs System Play
May be more plays later.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wdTf6xfaCUgEvz1js3TwvG_2wb2olL2shBAmP1TDe9Q/edit?usp=sharing
Rangers +189 (100/189) *Dogs System Play
May be more plays later.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wdTf6xfaCUgEvz1js3TwvG_2wb2olL2shBAmP1TDe9Q/edit?usp=sharing
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Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
I'm HonestD in the place to be
I go to St. John's University
And since kinde-garten I acquired the knowledge
And after 12th grade I went straight to college
I'm light skinned, I live in Queens
And I love eatin chicken and collard greens
I dress to kill, I love the style
I'm an MC you know who's versatile
Say I got good credit in your regards
Got my name not numbers on my credit cards
I go Uptown, I come back home
with who me myself and my microphone
All my rhymes are sweet delight
So here's another one for y'all to bite
When I rhyme, I never quit
And if I got a new rhyme I'll just say it
Cause it takes a lot, to entertain
And sucker MC's can be a pain
You can't rock a party with the hip in hop
You gotta let em know you'll never stop
The rhymes have to make (a lot of sense)
You got to know where to start (when the beats come in...)
I go to St. John's University
And since kinde-garten I acquired the knowledge
And after 12th grade I went straight to college
I'm light skinned, I live in Queens
And I love eatin chicken and collard greens
I dress to kill, I love the style
I'm an MC you know who's versatile
Say I got good credit in your regards
Got my name not numbers on my credit cards
I go Uptown, I come back home
with who me myself and my microphone
All my rhymes are sweet delight
So here's another one for y'all to bite
When I rhyme, I never quit
And if I got a new rhyme I'll just say it
Cause it takes a lot, to entertain
And sucker MC's can be a pain
You can't rock a party with the hip in hop
You gotta let em know you'll never stop
The rhymes have to make (a lot of sense)
You got to know where to start (when the beats come in...)
