Hockey Capping Discussion

[Santacapper]

Thought with a light card, and most likely no plays today for myself, Id start a thread and see how people go about looking at a card, and get soem discussion going in here. I wrote this up for a game last year, but the method still holds true this season, so some thing might seem out of whack with this year.

Vancouver @ New York Rangers


Team Offense


Season

Van = 3.2 NYR = 3.09

Not outstanding towards an under play but it gets by.


last 5


Van = 3.4 NY 3.0

I put more stock in last 5 games played as I think it gives an idication of the teams direction of late. With regards to the last 5 i then look at the opponents and timing of the games. For Van its Col twice, Boston Ottawa and Edmonton. None of these teams I consider to be slow down the play teams, in these matches teams tend to try and skate with the opponent inflating goals and such. Col doesnt play defense and Boston was coming in on a tough stretch. So those 3.4 looks better in my eyes now to an under play with a total of 6. Same with the Rangers, they got Nashville with Vokoun got injured and potted 5, St Loo when I could score a goal on Lalime and company and they still only get 3 a game in that stretch? again a trend in my eye to the under.

Team Defense


Season


Van = 2.8 NYR = 2.4.


Both under 3 points to the under.


Last 5


Van = 3.4 NYR = 2.6.

Again with the last 5 I look at the opponent, Van played some teams who like to score alot and do so. Rangers played some decent teams but 2.4 is good to go for an under play. Home away splits the fact NYR is giving up under 2 by themselves the way Van scores on the road makes me like it even more.


Home / Away Splits

Van = 2.6 NYR = 2.8 goals for respectively home and away. .

Goalie Stats


I use save % instead of GAA as an indicator for goalies as I think its more telling down the road, Lundqvist in net for the boys in blue, he comes in with a .928 % Rangers factor in shots a game, 28, and thats 2 goals. Auld has a .907% w/ shots thats about 2.5 goals.

Special Teams


both work out to middle of the road, nothing to write home about either way. Well nothing to write home with an under in the works.


Trends / Matchups

Trends under 3-0 van on 3 days rest, 7-3 NYR last 10 games.

Looking at past matchups, they hadnt played each other yet, but I will look at this and get a guage how the teams play vs each other. Were there 18 minior penalties called, is this the norm? Etc etc.

All adds up to a play on the under. Van wins 3-2 :cheers:

 

[Santacapper]

Again, not trying to say there is a right way / wrong way, just thought Id see how people go about it.

Im typically a totals guy, so Id love to hear from guys who cap sides better than I do... hopefull can learn a thing or 2 from the great hockey guys here:cheers:

 

[Liquidnoose]

Hard to explain my methods, if you can call them that. I look at the teams last 5-10 games played to see how consistent they are, look at the H or Away recs...then head to head..but only RECENT games...I don't go for the 10 yr oild trends with this new NHL. ONce satisfied with a winner I think to myself what a fair value for that team would be to win...if I don't find it...I start on the totals kind of the same way you do.

And some times when it just looks like Team A should win going away...I'll throw one on the Hockey Gods to get me a Dog winner.

Hope that makes some sense.

Also watching listening to games gives some good insight if the announcers are on the "inside" of the team.

 

[Santacapper]

Liquid, I dont put much stock in past trends, but I do put some stock in goalies #'s vs teams, sometimes guys just step it up vs certain teams, no way to describe it, but say for example Brodeur, is incredible in Montreal, Im not sure off the top of my head, but next time he goes there, take a look at his stats, incredible.

I think its whatever works for you, obviously its doing its job for ya :cheers:

No doubt visual capping is huge in the sport, also paying attention to line changes etc in practice that week is big.

Good to hear your thoughts:shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

Excellent thread fellas. Should prolly sticky this for the members Santa

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I'll look for situations mostly, letdowns. Anaheim has been terrific but, like Buffalo, we know they arent going to sustain it - they'll have their letdown week/month/whatever it is. Now they have injured goalies and are going into Edmonton, where the home team is just starting to recapture the form that saw them in the Finals last season. With their team changes between then & the new season, its taken them awhile to find that groove, and now after a nice run face the team thats the best in the West: they'll know it, they know this is a benchmark game for them, they'll bring the kitchen sink.

So ANA heading into a letdown zone IMO facing a team on the rise. Team records being what they are means EDM should still be an ok price despite ANA being on a 3rd string goalie.

Thats the way I look a things. I concentrate more on the last couple of months because teams looking to make the playoffs so often get on streaks, and you simplyride those teams. At the same time, some name teams who simply arent going to make the playoffs get ragged, and value can be found against them in their home games. I dont look at stats at all, except how a team is doing offensively and defensively with their PP, and how their goalie is doing (and of course, their recent results vs overall record, to gauge where they're presently at). Thats about it.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

i still think Hockey is all about streaks, Its just when you have them that counts. Red Wings and Nashville both start out slowly and are now back in the same position they are in the past few seasons.

Maple Leafs have figured out the offense...problem is they still have yet to figure out their defense. When you have a guy named Belak and McCabe on your squad, you know you are doomed.

I am also seeing a ton of 5.5 total lines. Does anyone remember how last season we actually saw quite a bit of 7 and even 7.5? I think the coaches have now figured how to build a trap around the new style of NHL so we got to be careful. Santacapper indicated the 2 teams he loves playing unders, the Isles and the Caps, whom last year were notorious for giving up plenty of goals and scoring a few.

Also i think it would be a good idea to keep track of teams with the best -1.5 percentage. I know Ottawa was the top -1.5 team last season. Not too sure this year.

 

[Santacapper]

BC - Ive always been intrigued by your planning ahead for capping purposes. Future goals sure play a part in motivation of teams, especially fighting for that 8th spot etc.

Think with Edmonton tonight, sets up nice, but not really th eprice I thought. Pronger is in for a rude audience, thats for sure.

Mike - agree, think thats where observational capping comes in. IE how much time are certain poster boys for giveaways playing etc. Have seen a few 7's but highlyl juiced to the under, and more often than not the under has come in if memory serves me.

Something to look for that PL W/L record for sure.

 

[Cass7206]

To me, first I just look over each game and see waht stands out. If i immediatly see a 5.5 line and think it should defeinitely be higher I will probably end up betting it. I keep track of what looks good at first glance, then look into each game more. I try not to change them too much though, first instinct tends to be more correct. Hockey is all about motivation and momentum. When a team gets on a roll, good or bad, it seems liek some night you know when their gonna turn things around for better or worse. i try to bet based on how i think the playrs will go at the game. ex. tonight with the islanders @ pens. penguins have been going a little downhill but crosby is back, home game against a division rival that is one game ahead of them. they should really go at it tonight. good thread

 

[charvik]

I've been meaning to add my 2 cents to this thread for a long time now, but time has been short lately.

My totals (and sides) capping is very similar to Santa's. I look at the stats the same way, but I generally do this fairly quickly at first, just browsing the stats to see if something pops out as out of the norm for a team. If so, I check my own notes (if I have watched the game) and check media (papers, websites) for info on what really happened.

I pick all my selections based on those criterias, and then I start reading up on team situations to possibly scratch plays if something is going on.

When time permits I'll try to go into details, but this is the "simple"/quick answer at least...

 

[tuck321]

Never been too much into capping. Just look for filters. Say Washington is a home dog to Dallas. Say Dallas has nailed them previously by 20 plus. Home dog off 20 point loss play home dog.That rule has been in affect at least 15 years. Say Anaheim is at home vs LA and the last time they played they had a number of fights. When teams play and in previous meeting there were fights bet game under. Had no option in a terrible spot and cash a good ticket. That is the strongest total angle I know and it leaves me with no decision. Today the nearest thing to a filter bet I see is Pinnacle kept the price down on the Montreal team a long time when the public is 80% on NJ. NJ becomes inpossible as a side and I have to look at Montreal. Montreal is 3-1 in first game of a b-b. Montreal has tremendous motivation and has not lost b-b games all year and NJ has not played that well last 10. NJ has been solid at home so it is a scary bet. So. If I trust anything it is Pinnacle and I shade all optional bets by avoiding the side they want me to take.

 

[charvik]

Never been too much into capping. Just look for filters. Say Washington is a home dog to Dallas. Say Dallas has nailed them previously by 20 plus. Home dog off 20 point loss play home dog.That rule has been in affect at least 15 years. Say Anaheim is at home vs LA and the last time they played they had a number of fights. When teams play and in previous meeting there were fights bet game under. Had no option in a terrible spot and cash a good ticket. That is the strongest total angle I know and it leaves me with no decision. Today the nearest thing to a filter bet I see is Pinnacle kept the price down on the Montreal team a long time when the public is 80% on NJ. NJ becomes inpossible as a side and I have to look at Montreal. Montreal is 3-1 in first game of a b-b. Montreal has tremendous motivation and has not lost b-b games all year and NJ has not played that well last 10. NJ has been solid at home so it is a scary bet. So. If I trust anything it is Pinnacle and I shade all optional bets by avoiding the side they want me to take.

I like to use the bolded as a warning flag for my wagers too... If I see this happen I often go back and try to find out why.

 

[charvik]

Alright, to try to specify my process some...

I use pretty much the same basic method for totals and sides. I start out checking stats, mainly Team Offense and Team Defense. First I check out the season stats for each team, on offense and defense. Let's say Team A has scored 54 goals in 20 games, which would give me an average of 2.7, and let in 60, for 3.0 average. Team B has similar stats. This would give me an indication of their overall team speed and tactics. I then check home/away stats for the season in similar fashion, to find out if there are big differences between their home and away tactics.

The next step is the last 5 games, in similar fashion, giving me an indication of their current form, and then last 3 home/away splits to confirm.

This gives me an initial impression of all teams and totals.

Next step is to check split histories between teams. How does team A play team B at home and on the road? Sometimes you'll find that certain teams plays a particular way against one opponent. It's odd, but very common in hockey.

After this initial "check" I have a good feeling of the teams on the card, and I know which matchups to focus more on. The next step is the last 5 games. Which opponents have they faced, and how do those opponents play currently? I read up on game reports, to see if something out of the ordinary happened, like a lot of penalties, lucky scores, rein deer on the ice, or whatever else odd that might influence the scores. What I am looking for is confirmation of the trends I am seeing in the numbers. If something seems odd or doesn't compute I usually scrap the game right there and then.

I also look out for teams that are particularly strong at home or weak on the road (more common in the Euro Leagues then in the NHL) and adjust accordingly. The next step is coaches and lineups. Do players hold grudges against the opponent? Are there certain matchups that favors my leans. (Some players tend to score better against certain opponents.) I also check for injury information that could change lineups dramatically. A team that has done a lot of lineup mixing usually tends to score less before the lines gel, unless it's a team that shuffles to increase scoring or mixing up stale formations. I guess the experience watching hockey a lot comes into play here...

Next step is Special Teams. What is the trends for PP and PK. If I am looking for overs I'd like to see a lot of PP opportunities of course, but it does no good if the teams have horrible PP numbers. Scoring percentages is another stat that I check out, but I don't put as much weight on that as other stats. Shooting stats for and against are used to confirm my perception of team speed or playing style, and after these "capping" stages I know how I will play the game.

All of the above is totally dependent on the keeper for each team, and I will scrap an otherwise nice game stats-wise if I don't get the goal tender I am expecting.

:cheers:

 

[charvik]

that... or I'll just use my trusted coin...:moose: