Historical Game 7 NBA Stats

[BetCrimes1984]

Lots of interesting numbers to impart, so let's roll...

(1) OK, so home teams are an intimidating 15-3 SU in game 7s. But you just have to know that number isn't as clean as it appears to be. This is only the 4th time in NBA finals history that the road team has been allowed the luxury of 2 days rest prior to playing a game 7. Concerning the 3 previous contests that involved that much rest prior to being played...

1951: Home team won 79-75 (40-34 @ht) - number of Q won: 2 (+1 tie)
1978: Home team lost 99-105 (45-53 @ht) - number of Q won: 1
1994: Home team won 90-84 (45-43 @ht) - number of Q won: 4

Every one of the game 7 winners won the 1Q & then led @half-time.

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(2) Average game 7 totals...

- before the ABA-NBA merger (11 games)
average of 189.5 regulation ppg (highest total: 225 pts)

- since the ABA-NBA merger (7 games)
average of 184.8 regulation ppg (highest total: 213 pts, twice)

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(3) In the 58 previous NBA finals to go at least 5 games, there has only ever been 1 instance where the winning finalist failed to lead at half-time in any of the final 5 games played. That was in 1955, a finals series strongly suspected of being fixed by players on the losing team (a team that led @half-time in the final 4 games played, and led 41-24 in game 7 before losing by 1 pt). So apart from that suspect result, the feat has never been achieved. The Warriors have failed to lead at half-time in any of the last 4 games played (3 deficits & 1 tie).

Live betting concerns married to the (1) & (3) angles above demand paying close attention to who the half-time leader is.

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(4) Road team scoring in game 7...

Road teams who manage 100+ regulation pts in game 7 sport a record of 3 wins (2, 6 & 15 pts), 3 losses (3, 9 & 19 pts) & 2 ties in regulation (subsequent losses in single & double-OT periods).

Road teams who fail to top 100 pts in regulation time sport an 0-10 SU record in regulation.

Just ftr: the Cavs are 15-0 SU this postseason when scoring 100 pts.

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(5) Of the 18 teams to trail g7 at half-time...

- 10 won the 3Q
- 3 lost the 3Q by 1 pt
- 3 lost the 3Q by 5 pts
- 2 lost the 3Q by 7+ pts

Every team who lost the 3Q after trailing at the half lost the game/series.

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(6) The question arises as to how difficult it is to win 3 straight games in the finals, esp. with the demand that 2 of them come on the road. There has been 15 3-game winning streaks involving (at least) 2 road wins in NBA finals history: a rate of 22.7%, or roughly 1 such streak every 5 finals played. However, concerning only finals played since the ABA-NBA merger, that then leaves 10 streaks in 36 finals: a rate of 27.8%, or roughly 1 such streak every 4 finals played.

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(7) Concerning the nature of result sequences re their pointing to the eventual finals result...

Teams to lose g1 & g2 have a 3-25 finals record
Teams to win g5 & g6 have a 13-2 finals record
Teams to win g5 & g6 after losing g4 have a 9-1 finals record
Teams to win g5 & g6 after losing g1 have a 4-1 finals record
Teams to win g4 while losing g3 & g5 have an 11-12 finals record

While an 0-2 start usually digs an immediate grave for the team suffering said fate, the result sequences since clearly paint a much rosier picture historically speaking for the Cavs.

Oh, and since the ABA-NBA merger g6 winners have a 23-2 finals record.

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(8) 15, 33, 30, 9, 15 & 14 pts: Those are the margins of the finals games played so far.

- There has never been a finals that hasn't had at least 1 game decided by 1-8 pts.

- There has never been a finals lasting 7 games that hasn't had at least 1 game decided by 1-4 pts.

- There has never been a finals that's gone at least 6 games that hasn't had at least 1 game decided by 1-7 pts.

- There is only one instance in NBA history of 7 straight finals games being decided by 9 pts or more (the last 2 games of the '86-87 finals followed by the first 5 games of the '87-88 finals).

It's not overstating things to say we are due a close game.

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(9) This will be the 5th game between Cleveland & GS in Oakland this season...

- so far they've averaged 9.8 pts more in 1st halves (100.0) than they have in 2nd halves (90.2).

- every game so far has seen at least one quarter total 43 pts or fewer (lowest with Green playing = 36 pts).

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[braves]

:cheers3:

 

[B.A.R.]

Terrific stuff B.C.

 

[eggman]

Gold Jerry, Gold!!!!

 

[emkee]

No team has ever recovered to win a Finals series after being down 3-1 (0-32).

Why would this dysfunctional Cavs team be the first.

Oh, and since the ABA-NBA merger g6 winners have a 23-2 finals record.

Not sure this is relevant to to a Game 7, basically means the majority closed out the series in Game 6.

Since 2000, teams that won Game 6 and are playing an away Game 7 are 5-20 SU (9-16 ATS),

In the Finals over that period said teams are 0-1 SU and ATS.

 

[emkee]

Playoffs included, Warriors are 87-7 in games they've had a 4-point lead at any point.

 

[Lareux]

Good stuff BC.

Pretty easy to see the difference between giving trends/stats/info for the sake of information/discussion and giving trends/stats to try and validate an opinion on the upcoming game.

:shake2:

 

[emkee]

Good stuff BC.

Pretty easy to see the difference between giving trends/stats/info for the sake of information/discussion and giving trends/stats to try and validate an opinion on the upcoming game.

:shake2:

lol, hate away Larry.

I share for info/discussion to help others as well, just happen to be putting my money where my mouth is and went big on the Warriors.

We're gamblers, no ?

 

[Lareux]

lol, hate away Larry.

I share for info/discussion to help others as well, just happen to be putting my money where my mouth is and went big on the Warriors.

We're gamblers, no ?

I wasn't hating at all. You sound like a millennial with that crap.

GL tonight. I'm just hoping we see a good game, this has been one of the worst Finals ever. Just because it's 3-3 doesn't mean it's been a good series, there hasn't been a game decided by single digits. Here's to seeing a game still in the balance with 2 or 3 minutes left on the clock.

 

[emkee]

BC is awesome, btw. Great, great contributor to this forum.

 

[edou1x]

clearly when you are not able to finish the series in game 5&6 the momentum switches to the team that had its backs against the wall. That's what happened to OKC and should happen to GS. They will need to play the game of their life if they want to beat the team with the bestplayer on the planet. GS is tired physically/mentally. bogut is out and GS is not playing as good as in reg season. line is -5 only for a reason. GS has only home court advantage over cavs right now which is scary for GS fans.

pehaps cavs are gonna lose but on the paper they have everything to be an upset maker tonight. if lebron puts another 40+ pts cavs should do it

 

[emkee]

It's amazing how the Dubs are the ugly stepchild right now after 2 intangible driven games.

Cramps is the best player, yes but he'll need great games from his teammates tonight in order to win.

Too much recency bias around which is the death of gambling.

Cavs should be favored tonight, smh.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Oh, and since the ABA-NBA merger g6 winners have a 23-2 finals record.

Not sure this is relevant to to a Game 7, basically means the majority closed out the series in Game 6.

.

Tongue was def. in cheek posting that. It's still strictly factual, though.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Just a quick review for why historical shit is worth paying attention to:

- since the ABA-NBA merger (7 games)
average of 184.8 regulation ppg (highest total: 213 pts, twice)

Game totaled 182 pts. 4 total points were scored inside the last 5 minutes.

Every team who lost the 3Q after trailing at the half lost the game/series.

Cavs trailed at half-time but won the 3Q, so history didn't stand in the way of their SU prospects at the start of the 4Q.

- There has never been a finals that hasn't had at least 1 game decided by 1-8 pts.

- There has never been a finals lasting 7 games that hasn't had at least 1 game decided by 1-4 pts.

- There has never been a finals that's gone at least 6 games that hasn't had at least 1 game decided by 1-7 pts.

The demands of history wouldn't be denied. All 3 of these "never beens" remain intact for another year.

Road teams who fail to top 100 pts in regulation time sport an 0-10 SU record in regulation.

Cavs however did set a couple of new records. They become the first road team to win a game 7 while scoring less than 100 pts, and the first to do so after trailing at half-time.