HHM - NASCAR (2025)

He Hate Me

He Hate Me

Internet Ninja
The new season starts this weekend with the Clash, an exhibition race at Bowman Gray.

Not many drivers have raced here but the track and format are similar to the previous Clash events at the Coliseum in LA.

I doubt that I will bet much for this race, unless there are more matchups after practice and qualifying tonight.

Looking to bet on:

Hamlin - good on short tracks and finished 1st and 9th in previous LA Clashes. He did have 1 DNF because of mechanical issues.
Busch - has started the last 2 seasons hot only to cool off after the first handful of races. Finished 2, 3, and 2 in the last 3 Clashes in LA
Preece - Moved to RFK this year and RFK has been bad at the last 3 Clashes in LA. Preece is good as short tracks and he will race the modified race today so maybe he learns something to help him, but the modified car is not like the Cup car.
Chastain - Drivers will need to be aggressive to pass here and Chastain is aggressive and probably the hardest driver to pass.

Looking to bet against:

RFK (Buescher & Keselowski but not Preece) Buescher has not even made the main event in the last 3 Clashes in LA and Keselowski only made the main event in the last one (1 out of 3).
Chase Elliott - not aggressive enough for this track/type of race and his finishes in the 3 Clashes in LA are 22, 21, and 11
Gibbs - short tracks are not his thing and he finished 18 and 26 in his only 2 Clashes in LA
Bell - seems to start the season sluggish. I will only bet against him with good drivers for this type of track like Larson, Hamlin, and Busch

So far I have bet these:

0.5 unit:
Hamlin -115 over Bell (BetUS)
Busch +100 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Chastain +115 over Eliott (BetUS)

Daytona 500 (I bet these by mistake and do not recommend them)

1 unit:
Hamlin -120 over Eliott (DK)
Busch -120 over Keselowski (DK)
 
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He Hate Me said:
The new season starts this weekend with the Clash, an exhibition race at Bowman Gray.

Not many drivers have raced here but the track and format are similar to the previous Clash events at the Coliseum in LA.

I doubt that I will bet much for this race, unless there are more matchups after practice and qualifying tonight.

Looking to bet on:

Hamlin - good on short tracks and finished 1st and 9th in previous LA Clashes. He did have 1 DNF because of mechanical issues.
Busch - has started the last 2 seasons hot only to cool off after the first handful of races. Finished 2, 3, and 2 in the last 3 Clashes in LA
Preece - Moved to RFK this year and RFK has been bad at the last 3 Clashes in LA. Preece is good as short tracks and he will race the modified race today so maybe he learns something to help him, but the modified car is not like the Cup car.
Chastain - Drivers will need to be aggressive to pass here and Chastain is aggressive and probably the hardest driver to pass.

Looking to bet against:

RFK (Buescher & Keselowski but not Preece) Buescher has not even made the main event in the last 3 Clashes in LA and Keselowski only made the main event in the last one (1 out of 3).
Chase Elliott - not aggressive enough for this track/type of race and his finishes in the 3 Clashes in LA are 22, 21, and 11
Gibbs - short tracks are not his thing and he finished 18 and 26 in his only 2 Clashes in LA
Bell - seems to start the season sluggish. I will only bet against him with good drivers for this type of track like Larson, Hamlin, and Busch

So far I have bet these:

1 unit:
Hamlin -120 over Eliott (DK)
Busch -120 over Keselowski (DK)

0.5 unit:
Hamlin -115 over Bell (BetUS)
Busch +100 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Chastain +115 over Eliott (BetUS)
Click to expand...
Off to a great start. The 2 DK bets were actually for the Daytona 500 and not the Clash. I will change them in the original post and I will look for a way out of them before Daytona, as betting on it is just like throwing darts.
 
He Hate Me said:
Off to a great start. The 2 DK bets were actually for the Daytona 500 and not the Clash. I will change them in the original post and I will look for a way out of them before Daytona, as betting on it is just like throwing darts.
Click to expand...

I think I managed to end up betting Championship odds 2 of the last 3 years, thinking I was betting the Daytona 500.
 
He Hate Me said:
The new season starts this weekend with the Clash, an exhibition race at Bowman Gray.

Not many drivers have raced here but the track and format are similar to the previous Clash events at the Coliseum in LA.

I doubt that I will bet much for this race, unless there are more matchups after practice and qualifying tonight.

Looking to bet on:

Hamlin - good on short tracks and finished 1st and 9th in previous LA Clashes. He did have 1 DNF because of mechanical issues.
Busch - has started the last 2 seasons hot only to cool off after the first handful of races. Finished 2, 3, and 2 in the last 3 Clashes in LA
Preece - Moved to RFK this year and RFK has been bad at the last 3 Clashes in LA. Preece is good as short tracks and he will race the modified race today so maybe he learns something to help him, but the modified car is not like the Cup car.
Chastain - Drivers will need to be aggressive to pass here and Chastain is aggressive and probably the hardest driver to pass.

Looking to bet against:

RFK (Buescher & Keselowski but not Preece) Buescher has not even made the main event in the last 3 Clashes in LA and Keselowski only made the main event in the last one (1 out of 3).
Chase Elliott - not aggressive enough for this track/type of race and his finishes in the 3 Clashes in LA are 22, 21, and 11
Gibbs - short tracks are not his thing and he finished 18 and 26 in his only 2 Clashes in LA
Bell - seems to start the season sluggish. I will only bet against him with good drivers for this type of track like Larson, Hamlin, and Busch

So far I have bet these:

0.5 unit:
Hamlin -115 over Bell (BetUS)
Busch +100 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Chastain +115 over Eliott (BetUS)

Daytona 500 (I bet these by mistake and do not recommend them)

1 unit:
Hamlin -120 over Eliott (DK)
Busch -120 over Keselowski (DK)
Click to expand...
+0.5 units
 
I have played these so far for the Daytona 500:

1 unit:
LaJoie Top 10 +550 (FD)
JHN Top 10 +470 (FD)
TY Dillion Top 10 +360 (FD)

I also accidentally played these before the Clash but I do not recommend them:

1 unit:
Hamlin -120 over Eliott (DK)
Busch -120 over Keselowski (DK)
 
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I have added these for the 500:

0.5 units:
JHN Top 10 +500 (BetUS)
LaJoie Top 10 +500 (BetUS)
Ty Dillon to win Group F over Truex, Berry, Suarez +400 (CZRS)
Austin Dillion to win Group 5 over Gilliland, Berry, Gibbs +320 (DK)
 
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And these for the 500:

0.5 units:
Truex +115 over Berry (BetUS)
Bell +110 over Larson (BetUS)
Buescher +105 over Reddick (BetUS)
Buescher -105 over Gilliland (BetUS)
Haley +115 over Berry (BetUS)
 
I jumped on the Berry fades. He shouldn't be favored over those 2. It's Daytona, anything can happen, but I want no part of Berry on SS tracks.

Start of the week I wouldn't think I'd want to be playing any Ty Dillon, but he's looked good so far. Not a bad price in that group.
 
CPA-hole said:
I jumped on the Berry fades. He shouldn't be favored over those 2. It's Daytona, anything can happen, but I want no part of Berry on SS tracks.

Start of the week I wouldn't think I'd want to be playing any Ty Dillon, but he's looked good so far. Not a bad price in that group.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I did not understand the Wood Bros hiring Berry. I like Berry, but he is a short track driver and the Wood Bros make great superspeedway cars. I guess their thinking is his strength is their weakness and vice versa, but in today's NASCAR you just need to win a race and you are in the playoffs and more $$$. Burton won in Daytona in that Wood Bros car.

Anyway watching the Duels on Thursday, Berry was near the front twice and got booted out of the draft and went all the way to the back. His car is fast enough to get to the front but in the draft he sucks as a driver.

I have the same feelings about Preece in the RFK car. I think he is overvalued due to the car. He looked better in the Duels than Berry but he also was booted out of the draft when he was near the front. I am still trying to find some way to bet against Preece.

Ty Dillon usually runs well in Daytona. I was gonna add more to my Top 10 bet with him but his odds have dropped below +300 everywhere. Having him +400 in that matchup against Berry who I do not like tomorrow and Suarez who has terrible Daytona luck seems like better odds than his current Top 10. Truex is really the only driver in that matchup who worries me.
 
I may add to some on my matchup between now and tomorrow and I planned to bet more Top 10s but I want to wait a little longer to see about the weather.

They have already moved the start time for the 500 up to 1:30, which is the max they could move it up. Currently, it looks like it will rain at some point between 2:00 and 4:00 tomorrow. If they were able to get to halfway before the rain, which does not look like it will happen based on the current forecast, then the race will be official and there will be fewer chances of a big wreck, which hurts my high odds Top 10 bets. Betting longshot Top 10s in Daytona is usually a winning strategy due to the big wreck or multiple wrecks.

Anyway, I wanna be on:
Lajoie
Ty Dillon
JHN (I know this sounds crazy)
Austin Dillon
Buescher
Elliott (he has looked good bump drafting this week)

I wanna be against:
Berry
Larson
Reddick
Preece
Suarez
Gibbs
 
The ARCA race is an abomination.

Hoping we avoid rain tomorrow. Bet US has a prop earlier in the week, if there'd be a last lap pass for the win. Yes was +225. A rain shortened race kills that.
 
It looks like the front with the rain and thunderstorms will get to the track around 3:30. Green flag is at 2:00 so they will have about an hour and 1/2 of racing with one stage break, they will be right around 1/2 way when the rain gets there. This assumes there are no wrecks to slow the pace down.

The weather makes it tough to know if betting longshot Top 10s is the best strategy (it normally is) or if matchups will be better.
 
I added these:

0.5 units:
Bell +115 over Larson (BetUS)
Buescher -105 over Reddick (BetUS)
Buescher -105 over Gilliland (BetUS)
 
Putting all of my bets in one place for now:

1.5 units:
JHN Top 10 +480 (FD & BetUS)
LaJoie Top 10 +533 (FD & BetUS)
Ty Dillion Top 10 +373 (FD)

1 unit:
Cody Ware Top 10 +667 (FD)
Ware Top 20 +110 (Bovada)
Hocevar Top 20 -115 (Bovada)
Z Smith Top 20 -115 (Bovada)
Truex +110 over Berry (BetUS)
Bell +113 over Larson (BetUS)
Buescher +100 over Reddick (BetUS)
Buescher -105 over Gilliland (BetUS)
Haley +113 over Berry (BetUS & BAS)
Hamlin -120 over Eliott (DK) accidentally played, do not recommend
Busch -120 over Keselowski (DK) accidentally played, do not recommend

0.5 units:
Ty Dillon to win Group F over Truex, Berry, Suarez +400 (CZRS)
Austin Dillion to win Group 5 over Gilliland, Berry, Gibbs +320 (DK)
 
Added:

0.5 unit:
Ty Dillon Top 10 +340 (FD)
LaJoie Top 10 +690 (Bet365)
Cody Ware Top 10 +600 (BetUS)
JHN Top 10 +400 (ESPN)
 
Putting all of my bets in one place to finalize any bets:

2 units:
Ty Dillon -120 over Johnson (BAS)
JHN Top 10 +460 (FD & BetUS & ESPN)
LaJoie Top 10 +572 (FD & BetUS & Bet365)
Ty Dillion Top 10 +365 (FD)
Truex +105 over Berry (BetUS & BAS)

1.5 units:
Cody Ware Top 10 +650 (FD & BetUS)

1 unit:
Ware Top 20 +110 (Bovada)
Hocevar Top 20 -115 (Bovada)
Z Smith Top 20 -115 (Bovada)
Bell +113 over Larson (BetUS)
Truex +115 over Preece (BAS)
Buescher +100 over Reddick (BetUS)
Buescher -105 over Gilliland (BetUS)
Haley +113 over Berry (BetUS & BAS)
Hamlin -120 over Eliott (DK) accidentally played, do not recommend
Busch -120 over Keselowski (DK) accidentally played, do not recommend

0.5 units:
Ty Dillon to win Group F over Truex, Berry, Suarez +400 (CZRS)
Austin Dillion to win Group 5 over Gilliland, Berry, Gibbs +320 (DK)
 
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He Hate Me said:
Putting all of my bets in one place to finalize any bets:

2 units:
Ty Dillon -120 over Johnson (BAS)
JHN Top 10 +460 (FD & BetUS & ESPN)
LaJoie Top 10 +572 (FD & BetUS & Bet365)
Ty Dillion Top 10 +365 (FD)
Truex +105 over Berry (BetUS & BAS)

1.5 units:
Cody Ware Top 10 +650 (FD & BetUS)

1 unit:
Ware Top 20 +110 (Bovada)
Hocevar Top 20 -115 (Bovada)
Z Smith Top 20 -115 (Bovada)
Bell +113 over Larson (BetUS)
Truex +115 over Preece (BAS)
Buescher +100 over Reddick (BetUS)
Buescher -105 over Gilliland (BetUS)
Haley +113 over Berry (BetUS & BAS)
Hamlin -120 over Eliott (DK) accidentally played, do not recommend
Busch -120 over Keselowski (DK) accidentally played, do not recommend

0.5 units:
Ty Dillon to win Group F over Truex, Berry, Suarez +400 (CZRS)
Austin Dillion to win Group 5 over Gilliland, Berry, Gibbs +320 (DK)
Click to expand...
Well that went from being good to this sucks really quick.

Daytona:
-8.27 units

2025 NASCAR
Cup - 7.74 units
 
Gonna place a few early bets for Atlanta.

I like Trackhouse and LaJoie this week.
Chastain usually qualifies well so I am gonna play his Top 10 now. I see some matchups with Chastain against Larson and Briscoe that I am gonna wait on since they both qualify well.
Suarez usually qualifies poorly at Atlanta, so I am gonna wait on his Top 10 and matchups.
Lajoie usually qualifies well at Atlanta but that was in a Spire car. He qualified mid-pack last week for the 500 in his Rick Ware car. Just gonna play a 0.5 unit on his Top 10 for now.

1 unit:
Chastain Top 10 +130 (ESPN)

0.5 unit:
Lajoie Top 10 +280 (BetUS)
 
Added these:

2 units:
LaJoie +135 over Berry (BM)
Haley +100 over Gragson (BAS)

1 unit:
Byron -120 over Larson (CZRS)
Haley +100 over Gragson (BAS)
Jones +115 over Berry (BetUS)
Chastain -125 over Briscoe (BetUS)
Chastain -110 over Reddick (BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Allmendinger Top 10 +300 (BetUS)
 
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BM has a ton of matchups for this race.
In the past, their matchup odds move around a lot. My 2 unit bet on Lajoie pushed the line from +135 to +129.
Gonna watch those and may add some, but I do not have a lot of money at BM.

All of my bets so far:

2 units:
LaJoie +135 over Berry (BM)
Haley +100 over Gragson (BAS)

1 unit:
Byron -120 over Larson (CZRS)
Haley +100 over Gragson (BAS)
Jones +115 over Berry (BetUS)
Chastain -125 over Briscoe (BetUS)
Chastain -110 over Reddick (BetUS)
Chastain Top 10 +130 (ESPN)
Suarez Top 10 +140 (Bovada)
LaJoie Top 10 +365 (Bet365 & BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Allmendinger Top 10 +300 (BetUS)
 
He Hate Me said:
BM has a ton of matchups for this race.
In the past, their matchup odds move around a lot. My 2 unit bet on Lajoie pushed the line from +135 to +129.
Gonna watch those and may add some, but I do not have a lot of money at BM.

All of my bets so far:

2 units:
LaJoie +135 over Berry (BM)
Haley +100 over Gragson (BAS)

1 unit:
Byron -120 over Larson (CZRS)
Haley +100 over Gragson (BAS)
Jones +115 over Berry (BetUS)
Chastain -125 over Briscoe (BetUS)
Chastain -110 over Reddick (BetUS)
Chastain Top 10 +130 (ESPN)
Suarez Top 10 +140 (Bovada)
LaJoie Top 10 +365 (Bet365 & BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Allmendinger Top 10 +300 (BetUS)
Click to expand...
Atlanta -1.4 units

2025 NASCAR
Cup - 9.14 units
 
Played a couple of early bets for the COTA Cup race on Sunday:

2 units:
Bowman Top 10 +100 (Bet365 and BetUS)

1 unit:
Bell -105 over Larson (DK)
 
I added a couple of small bets before practice and qualifying:

0.5 unit:

Zilisch -110 over Larson (CZRS)
Hocevar to win Group H +575 over Blaney, Suarez, Hamlin (Bovada)
 
I added to this bet for the Cup race tomorrow. I don't understand why Hocevar has such long odds in this group. I now have 1 unit on it.

0.5 unit
Hocevar to win Group H +650 over Blaney, Suarez, Hamlin (BetUS)
 
I added these for the Cup race tomorrow:

2 units:
Buescher Top 10 +200 (FD)
Buescher -120 over Cindric (BetUS & ESPN)

1 unit:
Hocevar +100 over Bubba (BetUS)
 
All of my current bets for today's race. I will add more:

2 units:
Bowman Top 10 +100 (Bet365 and BetUS)
Buescher Top 10 +200 (FD)
Buescher -120 over Cindric (BetUS & ESPN)

1 unit:
Hocevar +100 over Bubba (BetUS)
Hocevar to win Group H +612 over Blaney, Suarez, Hamlin (Bovada & BetUS)
Bell -105 over Larson (DK)

0.5 unit:
Zilisch -110 over Larson (CZRS)
 
Added:

2 units:
Reddick -125 over Larson (BetUS & BAS)
Elliott -105 over Larson (BetUS & BAS)
Bowman -120 over Allmendinger (BetUS & BAS)

1 unit:
Bowman Top 10 +105 (Bovada)
 
All of my bets:

3 units:
Bowman Top 10 +100 & +105 (Bet365, BetUS, and Bovada)

2 units:
Buescher Top 10 +200 (FD)
Buescher -120 over Cindric (BetUS & ESPN)
Reddick -125 over Larson (BetUS & BAS)
Elliott -105 over Larson (BetUS & BAS)
Bowman -120 over Allmendinger (BetUS & BAS)

1 unit:
Hocevar +100 over Bubba (BetUS)
Hocevar to win Group H +612 over Blaney, Suarez, Hamlin (Bovada & BetUS)
Bell -105 over Larson (DK)

0.5 unit:
Zilisch -110 over Larson (CZRS)
 
He Hate Me said:
All of my bets:

3 units:
Bowman Top 10 +100 & +105 (Bet365, BetUS, and Bovada)

2 units:
Buescher Top 10 +200 (FD)
Buescher -120 over Cindric (BetUS & ESPN)
Reddick -125 over Larson (BetUS & BAS)
Elliott -105 over Larson (BetUS & BAS)
Bowman -120 over Allmendinger (BetUS & BAS)

1 unit:
Hocevar +100 over Bubba (BetUS)
Hocevar to win Group H +612 over Blaney, Suarez, Hamlin (Bovada & BetUS)
Bell -105 over Larson (DK)

0.5 unit:
Zilisch -110 over Larson (CZRS)
Click to expand...
Almost a clean sweep, I lost my 0.5 unit bet.

+22.62 units
 
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I bet this before practice and qualifying. I think it may be better to wait until after qualifying to be on Buescher, but I did not want to potentially miss out on having some Buescher Top 10 at +money.

0.5 unit:
Buescher Top 10 +140 (Bet365)
 
He Hate Me said:
I bet this before practice and qualifying. I think it may be better to wait until after qualifying to be on Buescher, but I did not want to potentially miss out on having some Buescher Top 10 at +money.

0.5 unit:
Buescher Top 10 +140 (Bet365)
Click to expand...
I put another 0.5 on Buescher Top 10 +140

Bet365 still has their lines up and practice has started. Buescher appears to be fast and he is good here.
 
I also played these:

1 unit:
McDowell +260 to win Group F over Austin Dillon, Haley, and Herbst (Bet365)

0.25 unit:
Hocevar +350 to win Group D over Bubba, Bowman, and Cindric (Bet365)
 
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I bet these for the Xfinity race in an hour or so:

0.5 unit:
Sawalich Top 10 +100 (ESPN)
Sawalich +105 over Sanchez (BetUS)
 
Really like Buescher, McDowell, and Chastain tomorrow.

Gonna get some good value with Chastain because he messed up his qualifying lap but was good in practice.

Bowman, Gragson, and Briscoe all also had issues during their qualifying lap.
I will probably still be against Bowman he is just not that good here.
I thought I would be on Briscoe who is good here and is in the best equipment that he has ever been in, but he was not good in practice and had a bad qualifying lap. If he is still lined like a Top 5 to 10 guy, I will be against him in matchups.

Gibbs was second to qualify and had a very slow lap. He was average in practice and below average in the long run. I will be against him in matchups if possible.

Larson was great in practice, especially on the long run, but qualified poorly. He is really good here and I may be on his matchups if the lines move due to him due to his qualifying, which I doubt will happen.

Blaney, Byron, Chastain, Larson, Bell, and Buescher are good at Phoenix, with Reddick, Logano, and Briscoe in the next tier. I will take any of those against Briscoe if possible.

They have a normal tire and a soft tire for this race so there will be strategy in race. I like McDowell's crew chief in those situations and McDowell has a fast car. He has 2 top 10s in the last 3 races here. I think he was +600 for a Top 10 prior to qualifying. Some of that value will be gone, but maybe some +300s will be available.
 
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