HHM - Nascar (2024)

Gonna add a 2 unit Larson fade:

0.5 unit on each:
Chastain +115 over Larson (BetUS)
Truex +110 over Larson (BetUS)
Chase Elliott -120 over Larson (BAS)
Busch -105 over Larson (BAS)
 
Atlanta
Xfinity -3.08 units
Cup - +5.31 units

Nascar 2024:
Xfinity -3.18 units
Cup +3.67 units
Total +0.49
 
I made a few early Las Vegas bets:

Cup:
Kyle Busch Top 5 +190 - 0.94 units to win 1.78 units (Bovada)
Ross Chastain Top 10 -125 - 1.17 units to win 0.94 units (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Alex Bowman Top 10 +110 (BetUS) I may add to this if Bowman does not qualify well and the odds go up.

Xfinity:

0.5 unit:
Chandler Smith to win +900
Chandler Smith Top 5 +140
 
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I added these:

Las Vegas

Xfinity:

0.5 unit:
Mayer +115 over Love (BetUS)

Cup:

0.5 unit:
Bowman Top 10 -115 (Bovada) I now have 1 unit on this.
Bowman +245 to win Group H over Bubba, Buescher, and Gibbs (Bovada)
Dk has this same Group as Group D with Jones substituted for Bubba at +230 for Bowman which I like better than the Bovada Group.

0.25 unit:
Bowman -115 over Bubba (Bovada)
Busch +105 over Blaney (Bovada)
 
Added these for the Cup race:

0.5 units:

Bubba -110 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Suarez +145 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Dillon -15 over JHN (BetUS)
Byron -115 over Blaney (BetUS)
Bowman -110 over Elliott (BetUS)
Bowman -115 over Keselowski (BetUS)
 
Here is what I have so far:

Xfinity:

0.5 unit:
Chandler Smith to win +900
Chandler Smith Top 5 +140
Mayer +115 over Love (BetUS)

Cup:

1 unit:
Bowman Top 10 +100 & -115 (BetUS & Bovada)
Kyle Busch Top 5 +190 - 0.94 units to win 1.78 units (Bovada)
Ross Chastain Top 10 -125 - 1.17 units to win 0.94 units (Bovada)

0.5 unit:

Bubba -110 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Suarez +145 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Dillon -15 over JHN (BetUS)
Byron -115 over Blaney (BetUS)
Bowman -110 over Elliott (BetUS)
Bowman -115 over Keselowski (BetUS)
Bowman +245 to win Group H over Bubba, Buescher, and Gibbs (Bovada)


0.25 unit:

Bowman -115 over Bubba (Bovada)
Busch +105 over Blaney (Bovada)

Going forward:
Gonna look to fade the Ford drivers in general.
Like Bowman, Busch, Chastain, Dillon if he qualifies in the teens, Bubba, and Hendrick except for Elliott.
 
Added these for Xfinity:

1 unit:
Klingerman -125 over SVG (BetUS)
Considering Heim +100 over SVG too.

0.5 unit:

This is a 1.5 unit fade of JHN:
Carson Smith +115 over JHN (BetUS)
Allgaier +115 over JHN (BetUS)
Custer +115 over JHN (BetUS)

Mayer -115 over Love (BetUS) I now have 1 unit on this.
 
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I added these:

Cup:

0.5 unit:
Bubba +115 over Elliott (BetUS)
Haley -115 over Kraus (BetUS)

0.25 unit:
Chastain -120 over Elliott (Bovada)
 
Added this for the Xfinity race. I doubt Bovada puts out any Xfinity matchups in the next hour+, so this should be all of my Xfinity bets.

0.5 unit:
Almirola to win Group B +240 over Creed, Sammy Smith, and Mayer (BetUS)

All Xfinity bets:

1 unit:
Klingerman -125 over SVG (BetUS)
Mayer +100 over Love (BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Carson Smith +115 over JHN (BetUS)
Allgaier +115 over JHN (BetUS)
Custer +115 over JHN (BetUS)
Almirola to win Group B +240 over Creed, Sammy Smith, and Mayer (BetUS)
Chandler Smith to win +900
Chandler Smith Top 5 +140
 
Added this for the Xfinity race. I doubt Bovada puts out any Xfinity matchups in the next hour+, so this should be all of my Xfinity bets.

0.5 unit:
Almirola to win Group B +240 over Creed, Sammy Smith, and Mayer (BetUS)

All Xfinity bets:

1 unit:
Klingerman -125 over SVG (BetUS)
Mayer +100 over Love (BetUS)

0.5 unit:
Carson Smith +115 over JHN (BetUS)
Allgaier +115 over JHN (BetUS)
Custer +115 over JHN (BetUS)
Almirola to win Group B +240 over Creed, Sammy Smith, and Mayer (BetUS)
Chandler Smith to win +900
Chandler Smith Top 5 +140
-1.8 units.

Fading JHN did not work.
 
Practice and qualifying did not go as I thought it would.

Busch qualified 21st and I expected him to qualify in the Top 10. He did qualify in the mid-pack or at the back both times in 2020 and finished in the Top 5, but that was in a JGR car. He has not shown up and not had a fast car once they unloaded in a RCR car so we will see. Dillon qualified in his normal mid-pack spot so that is encouraging that everything is the same for RCR.

I expected Bowman to qualify in the low teens and he qualified 23rd. Byron and Larson qualified top 5 and even Elliott qualified 11th, so Hendrick has speed as expected. Bowman really has not been good since his injury so that may be the issue. If he does bad this week I think it is a sign that there is something else going on and I will not bet on him until he shows something.

I wanted to totally fade the Ford drivers but 4 qualified in the top 10 as compared to just a couple in the years past. Maybe the new body-style will work better for them in Vegas which has been dominated by Chevy and Toyota in the last couple of years.

I will be more likely to bet on Bubba and Bell after practice and qualifying and against Logano since he is on the pole.
 
Added:

2 unit:
Bell -125 over Logano (BM)

1 unit:
Bubba Top 10 -135 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Byron -125 over Logano (Bovada)
Bell -115 over Reddick (Bovada)
 
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Here is what I have so far:

Cup:

2 unit:
Bell -125 over Logano (BM)

1 unit:
Bowman Top 10 +100 & -115 (BetUS & Bovada)
Kyle Busch Top 5 +190 - 0.94 units to win 1.78 units (Bovada)
Chastain Top 10 -125 - 1.17 units to win 0.94 units (Bovada)
Bubba Top 10 -135 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:

Bubba +115 over Elliott (BetUS)
Bubba -110 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Suarez +145 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Dillon -115 over JHN (BetUS)
Byron -115 over Blaney (BetUS)
Byron -125 over Logano (Bovada)
Bowman -110 over Elliott (BetUS)
Bowman -115 over Keselowski (BetUS)
Haley -115 over Kraus (BetUS)
Bell -115 over Reddick (Bovada)
Bowman +245 to win Group H over Bubba, Buescher, and Gibbs (Bovada)


0.25 unit:

Bowman -115 over Bubba (Bovada) I don't really like this anymore
Busch +105 over Blaney (Bovada)
Chastain -120 over Elliott (Bovada)
 
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Added:

2 unit:
Busch +110 over Logano (BetUS & BAS)
Reddick +100 over Logano (BetUS & BAS)

0.25 unit:
Busch -105 over Blaney (Bovada) I now have 0.5 unit on this.
 
I think this is it.
I don't see how Larson does not dominate.
Hopefully Logano sux.

Cup:

2 unit:
Bell -125 over Logano (BM)
Busch +110 over Logano (BetUS & BAS)
Reddick +100 over Logano (BetUS & BAS)

1 unit:
Bowman Top 10 +100 & -115 (BetUS & Bovada)
Kyle Busch Top 5 +190 - 0.94 units to win 1.78 units (Bovada)
Chastain Top 10 -125 - 1.17 units to win 0.94 units (Bovada)
Bubba Top 10 -135 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:

Bubba +115 over Elliott (BetUS)
Bubba -110 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Suarez +145 over Gibbs (BetUS)
Dillon -115 over JHN (BetUS)
Busch +105 over Blaney (Bovada)
Byron -115 over Blaney (BetUS)
Byron -125 over Logano (Bovada)
Bowman -110 over Elliott (BetUS)
Bowman -115 over Keselowski (BetUS)
Haley -115 over Kraus (BetUS)
Bell -115 over Reddick (Bovada)
Bowman +245 to win Group H over Bubba, Buescher, and Gibbs (Bovada)

0.25 unit:

Bowman -115 over Bubba (Bovada) I don't really like this anymore
Chastain -120 over Elliott (Bovada)
 
I don't like betting anything over -135 but I bet this:
1 unit:
Larson -137 over Logano (BM)

Also added:

0.5 unit:
Bell -108 over Logano (BM). I now have 2.5 units on this.
 
Bloodbath

Vegas:
Xfinity -1.8 units
Cup -8.40 units

Nascar 2024:
Xfinity -4.98 units
Cup -4.73 units
Total -9.71 units

Bad luck in the pits and with equipment with Busch, Bell, Byron, and Bubba
Was wrong betting against Gibbs and betting on Bowman.
The only driver that I bet against that had any bad luck was Buecher who was only in one 0.5 unit Group bet.
 
Gonna post some reminders from each race so I can look back when they revisit the track for the second time in 2024.

Las Vegas - March 3, 2024

Larson, Reddick, Blaney, Gibbs, Byron, Busch, and Chastain were the best cars.

Dillon, Gragson, and Spire (Hocevar and LaJoie) were better than expected

Logano, Keselowski, Bowman, and Briscoe were worse than expected

Bell and Bubba had issues but did not appear to have top 5ish cars, kinda in the Truex, Hamlin, tier
 
Pre-practice Cup bets for Phoenix:

0.5 unit:
Hocevar -115 over JHN (BetUS)
Berry Top 10 +325 (BetUS)
Berry to win Group H +300 over Bowman, Cindric, Suarez (Bovada)

0.25 unit:
Logano to win the pole +1000 (BetUS) Why not?
Blaney -120 over Chastain (Bovada)
Bubba -115 Bowman (Bovada)
Byron to win +975 (BM)
 
Last edited:
Added these. Most of my 0.5 unit bets are Bovada limits. I will have more books to use starting next week so the limits should not affect me after today.

3 unit:
Hocevar -115 over JHN (BetUS & BAS) I now have 3.5 units on this. This is a max bet/limit.

2.38 units:
Gibbs Top 10 -120 (BetUS & Bovada) This is a max bet/limit.

0.5 unit:
Chastain +110 over Bell (Bovada)
Chastain +250 to win Group F over Bell, Logano, and Busch (Bovada) I am treating this as a 1 unit bet to win 1.8 units with the head-to-head listed above since I think Busch will suck today and Logano will not finish in the Top 10.
Reddick -120 over Logano
Bubba +100 over Busch (Bovada) Love this but limited to 0.5 unit
Bubba -115 over Keselowski (Bovada)
Blaney -115 over Larson (Bovada)
Hocevar Top 10 +350 (BetUS)
 
Looking at other books since they will be available next week. I like these

Gibbs +110 over Logano (DK)
Chastain -135 over Truex (DK)
Gibbs +220 to win Group 3 over Truex, Busch, and Jones (DK)

Spire -130 over Front Row (Ceasers)
Gibbs +125 over Elliott (Ceasers)
 
All of my bets in one place:

3.5 unit:
Hocevar -115 over JHN (BetUS & BAS) I now have 3.5 units on this. This is a max bet/limit.

2.38 units:
Gibbs Top 10 -120 (BetUS & Bovada) This is a max bet/limit.

0.5 unit:
Chastain +110 over Bell (Bovada)
Chastain +250 to win Group F over Bell, Logano, and Busch (Bovada) I am treating this as a 1 unit bet to win 1.8 units with the head-to-head listed above since I think Busch will suck today and Logano will not finish in the Top 10.
Reddick -120 over Logano
Bubba +100 over Busch (Bovada) Love this but limited to 0.5 unit
Bubba -115 over Keselowski (Bovada)
Blaney -115 over Larson (Bovada)
Hocevar Top 10 +350 (BetUS)
Berry Top 10 +325 (BetUS) Since Berry spun in practice this is now +550 to +800 which I like.
Berry to win Group H +300 over Bowman, Cindric, Suarez (Bovada) See above this is now +300

0.25 unit:
Logano to win the pole +1000 (BetUS) Why not?
Blaney -120 over Chastain (Bovada)
Bubba -115 Bowman (Bovada)
Byron to win +975 (BM)
 
Both Hocevar and Gibbs with issues on pit road. Both had issues with the rear wheel. Unbelievable.
 
All of my bets in one place:

3.5 unit:
Hocevar -115 over JHN (BetUS & BAS) I now have 3.5 units on this. This is a max bet/limit.

2.38 units:
Gibbs Top 10 -120 (BetUS & Bovada) This is a max bet/limit.

0.5 unit:
Chastain +110 over Bell (Bovada)
Chastain +250 to win Group F over Bell, Logano, and Busch (Bovada) I am treating this as a 1 unit bet to win 1.8 units with the head-to-head listed above since I think Busch will suck today and Logano will not finish in the Top 10.
Reddick -120 over Logano
Bubba +100 over Busch (Bovada) Love this but limited to 0.5 unit
Bubba -115 over Keselowski (Bovada)
Blaney -115 over Larson (Bovada)
Hocevar Top 10 +350 (BetUS)
Berry Top 10 +325 (BetUS) Since Berry spun in practice this is now +550 to +800 which I like.
Berry to win Group H +300 over Bowman, Cindric, Suarez (Bovada) See above this is now +300

0.25 unit:
Logano to win the pole +1000 (BetUS) Why not?
Blaney -120 over Chastain (Bovada)
Bubba -115 Bowman (Bovada)
Byron to win +975 (BM)
+4.11 units

Nascar 2024:
Xfinity -4.98 units
Cup -0.62 units
Total -5.6 units
 
Early bets for Bristol Cup:

1.87 units (Max limit bet):
Ty Gibbs Top 10 -125 (Bovada)

1 unit:
Hocevar Top 10 +300 (BetUS) & +285 (DK)
McDowell Top 10 +230 (BetUS) & +210 (FD)

1 unit to win .77 unit:
Hocevar -130 over Berry (FD)

0.5 unit:
Jones Top 10 +200 (BetUS)
Preece Top 10 +550 (DK)

Bovada had Gibbs too low, he is -150 to -200 everywhere else. I will not add to it unless I find it around -130 or less somewhere else, which I doubt.
Preece was just too good of a value to pass up, so I will not be adding to it.
I may add to Hocevar and Jones after qualifying if the odds increase.
I may add to McDowell but I assume that his odds will decrease after qualifying so I doubt I will.
 
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-2.13 units on posted plays.

I won over a unit today but I did not post my bets because I was too busy.

Total based on posted plays:

Nascar 2024:
Xfinity -4.98 units
Cup -2.85 units
Total -7.83 units
 
Gonna play fewer early bets going forward.

I played these for the COTA Cup race:

0.94 units (max bet do to Bovada continuing to lower limits):

Cindric Top 10 +125 (Bovada)
Bowman Top 10 +125 (Bovada)
 
I did add a few more for the COTA Cup race.

SVG looked good in Xfinity practice and qualifying and I think he will qualify well for the Cup race and will run well especially with the experience of the Xfinity race.

Also I saw a Bowman interview in which he was remarking about how well he runs at COTA. I think they will go for the win instead of points racing unless circumstances during the race dictate points racing. I think Hamlin will points race and not care as much about his finishing position as much.

0.75 units:
Bowman -115 over Hamlin (BetUS & Bovada)

0.5 units:
SVG -115 over Byron (BetUS)

$25 SVG to win +1400 (Bovada)
 
Betting on Connor Zilisch in the Truck race at COTA today.

0.5 unit:
Zilisch Top 3 -120 (BetUS)
Zilisch to win +300 (Bovada)
Zilisch -120 over Chastain (BetUS)
Zilisch to win Group B +150 over Eckes, Majeski, and Rhodes (BetUS)
 
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Both SVG and Cindric had issues getting a normal second lap during qualifying and both just missed out on the Top 10 to advance to the finals for qualifying so hopefully people will see that they qualified 11 and 12 and I get more value betting on them.

Hamlin over qualified to make the Top 10 and is starting 8th, I will fade him.

I don't know what happened to Bowman, he was fast in practice but not as good in qualifying. I still like him in the Top 10 but I would assume the odds will be better than the +125 I have on him now.

Byron is on the pole so my SVG bet against him will be at a bad number.

Suarez was all over the track trying to get a good lap and he only managed 19th. I will fade him.

Toyota looks good in general, especially Gibbs, Reddick, and Bell.

Buescher and McDowell did not qualify well, 20 and 27, but this is where they usually qualify at COTA and they usually finish higher than they quailfy, between 10 and 20 or so.
 
Betting on Connor Zilisch in the Truck race at COTA today.

0.5 unit:
Zilisch Top 3 -120 (BetUS)
Zilisch to win +300 (Bovada)
Zilisch -120 over Chastain (BetUS)
Zilisch to win Group B +150 over Eckes, Majeski, and Rhodes (BetUS)
That was fun for only a total of a 2 unit bet. Zilisch did everything wrong and finished 1/2 of a truck length out of 3rd behind Majeski so I lose the Top 3 and the Group bet by a half of a truck length.

-1.1 units
 
I added these:

1.88 unit:
Chase Elliott Top 10 -150 (Bovada)
Chastain Top 10 -120 (Bovada)

0.5 unit:
Reddick -115 over Byron (Bovada)
McDowell -115 over Suarez (Bovada)
Chastain -110 over Truex (Bovada)
Chastain -110 over Larson (Bovada)
 
Added these:

2 units:
SVG -110 over Larson (BM)

1 unit:
SVG -120 over Allmendinger (BM)

0.5 unit:
McDowell Top 10 +220 (FD)
 
And these:

2 unit:
Cindric +100 over Bubba (Ceasers) I thought this was a race bet but it is a Stage 1 bet.
Buescher +125 over Hamlin (Ceasers)

1.5 unit:
McDowell -115 over Suarez (Bet365)

1 unit:
Chastain Top 10 -115 (Bet365)
Buescher Top 10 +200 (DK)
0.5 unit:
McDowell Top 10 +200
 
Last edited:
Added these:

2.5 units:
Chastain +100 Larson (BAS)
Chastain -125 over Truex (BAS)
Elliott -115 over Truex (DK)

1 unit:
Gilliland -110 over Keselowski (BAS)
Haley +125 over Bubba (BAS)
Buescher +125 over Hamlin (Ceasers)
McDowell -115 over Suarez (Bet365)
Elliott +135 over Byron (BetUS)

Chastain -120 over Allmendinger (BetUS)
Gibbs +103 over Byron (BM)

Bets so far:

3 units:
Chastain over Larson (2.5 units +100 (BAS) & 0.5 units -110 (BetUS))
Chastain over Truex (2.5 units -125 (BAS) & 0.5 units -110 (BetUS))
Buescher +125 over Hamlin (Ceasers)
McDowell -115 over Suarez (Bovada & Bet365)

2.88 unit:
Chastain Top 10 (1.88 @ -120 (Bovada) & 1 unit @ -115 (Bet356)

2.5 units:
Elliott -115 over Truex (DK)

2 unit:
Cindric +100 over Bubba (Ceasers) I thought this was a race bet but it is a Stage 1 bet.
SVG -110 over Larson (BM)

1.88 unit:
Chase Elliott Top 10 -150 (Bovada)

1.44 unit:
Bowman Top 10 (0.94 +125 (Bovada) & 0.5 +200 (FD))

1 unit:
SVG -120 over Allmendinger (BM)
Elliott +135 over Byron (BetUS)
Chastain -120 over Allmendinger (BetUS)
Gibbs +103 over Byron (BM)
Gilliland -110 over Keselowski (BAS)
Haley +125 over Bubba (BAS)
McDowell Top 10 +220 & +200 (FD & DK)
Buescher Top 10 +200 (DK)

0.94 units:
Cindric Top 10 +125 (Bovada)

0.75 units:
Bowman -115 over Hamlin (BetUS & Bovada)

0.5 units:
Reddick -115 over Byron (Bovada)
SVG -115 over Byron (BetUS)

$25 SVG to win +1400 (Bovada)
 
Last edited:
Added these:

2.5 units:
Chastain +100 Larson (BAS)
Chastain -125 over Truex (BAS)
Elliott -115 over Truex (DK)

1 unit:
Gilliland -110 over Keselowski (BAS)
Haley +125 over Bubba (BAS)
Buescher +125 over Hamlin (Ceasers)
McDowell -115 over Suarez (Bet365)
Elliott +135 over Byron (BetUS)

Chastain -120 over Allmendinger (BetUS)
Gibbs +103 over Byron (BM)

Bets so far:

3 units:
Chastain over Larson (2.5 units +100 (BAS) & 0.5 units -110 (BetUS))
Chastain over Truex (2.5 units -125 (BAS) & 0.5 units -110 (BetUS))
Buescher +125 over Hamlin (Ceasers)
McDowell -115 over Suarez (Bovada & Bet365)

2.88 unit:
Chastain Top 10 (1.88 @ -120 (Bovada) & 1 unit @ -115 (Bet356)

2.5 units:
Elliott -115 over Truex (DK)

2 unit:
Cindric +100 over Bubba (Ceasers) I thought this was a race bet but it is a Stage 1 bet.
SVG -110 over Larson (BM)

1.88 unit:
Chase Elliott Top 10 -150 (Bovada)

1.44 unit:
Bowman Top 10 (0.94 +125 (Bovada) & 0.5 +200 (FD))

1 unit:
SVG -120 over Allmendinger (BM)
Elliott +135 over Byron (BetUS)
Chastain -120 over Allmendinger (BetUS)
Gibbs +103 over Byron (BM)
Gilliland -110 over Keselowski (BAS)
Haley +125 over Bubba (BAS)
McDowell Top 10 +220 & +200 (FD & DK)
Buescher Top 10 +200 (DK)

0.94 units:
Cindric Top 10 +125 (Bovada)

0.75 units:
Bowman -115 over Hamlin (BetUS & Bovada)

0.5 units:
Reddick -115 over Byron (Bovada)
SVG -115 over Byron (BetUS)

$25 SVG to win +1400 (Bovada)
+3.29 units

Could have been a lot better if I had better luck with McDowell, Elliott, Cindric, and SVG all having problems and I should not have bet 3 units against Byron who won.
 
Post-COTA thoughts:

Byron, Bell, Gibbs, and Reddick with the best cars with Chastain not far behind.

Bowman and Beuscher were solid. Buescher does not qualify well at COTA but finishes well.

McDowell looked like a 10 - 15 place car before he had steering issues. He does not qualify well at COTA but finishes in the 10 - 15 range.

Elliott had a Top 10 car but he had a penality and spun out later and finished 16th

Cindric looked like a top 10 car until he was involved in an accident.

SVP looked like a 10 - 15 place car but lost 1st gear and had a speeding penality in the pits.

Truex was involved in an incident on the first couple of laps and later had an issue in the pits but still finished 10th. He ran better than I thought he would.

Bubba was involved in the early incident with Truex and I think he spun again later in the race and still finished 15th. He ran better than I thought.

Keselowski sucks at road courses.

Erik Jones has not been decent at a road course since 2022.

Suarez sucks at COTA
 
I played these for the Richmond Xfinity race:

0.5 unit:
Jeb Burton +140 over SVG (BetUS)

$20:
Allgaier to win +650 (DK)
 
It looks like the race will be delayed due to rain or maybe postponed until tomorrow.

So far, I have bet these for tonight's (hopefully) Cup race in Richmond:

2 units:
Logano Top 10 -120 (Bet365 & BetUS)

1.5 units:
Elliott Top 10 +110 (Bet365)

1 unit:
Logano to win Group D +250 over Bowman, Bubba, and Reddick (Bovada)
Keselowski +100 over Byron (ESPNbet)
Berry +130 over Bubba (BetUS)
Logano -125 over Chastain (BetUS)
A Dillon +145 over Gragson (BetUS)
Austin Dillon Top 10 +550 (Bet365 and ESPNbet)
Berry Top 10 +200 (BetUS & Bet365)

0.58 units:
Bowman -130 over Bubba (ESPNbet) Using up bonus plays

0.5 unit:
Elliott -115 over Reddick (Bovada)
 
Added:

1 unit:
Buescher -120 over Blaney (BAS)

0.5 unit:
Berry +160 over Bubba (BAS)
Berry +240 to win Group over Gragson, McDowell, and Suarez (Caesars)
Buescher -130 over Reddick (Bovada)
 
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