gps_3 Week 6 SEC Discussion and Plays

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2015: 53-42-1

Week 5: 13-5



Locked In:

UGA -3
Houston -25'
Marshall -5
Miss St -29'
Northwestern +8
Utah -6'
Kansas St +9'
Wisconsin +1'
Clem/GT U 54'
WVU -7
Illinois +11
Texas Tech -12'
Wyoming +24
Ole Miss/NMSU U 66'
UT/UGA U 59'
UTEP +14'
Mizzou +5
Ball St/NIU O 56
OU/Texas O 59'
USC/Wash U 58
Houtston TT O 48'
Ga Tech +7'
Purdue +150


Futures:

Conference title:

OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:

tOSU U 11' -120 (5-0)
AU U 8' +130 (3-2)
TCU U 10 +115 (5-0)
UGA O 9 -140 (4-1)
Ole Miss O 8' -120 (4-1)
Oklahoma O 8' -140 (4-0)
UCLA U 9 -125 (4-1)
Wisconsin O 9 -115 (3-2)
 
Last edited:
Week 6 SEC Games (my PR line given)


Ole Miss (-40') vs NMSt

LSU @ S. Carolina (+13)

UGA @ Tennessee (+5)

Miss St vs Troy (+32)

Arkansas @ Alabama (-23)

UF @ Mizzou (+6)

Thoughts, opinions, arguments all welcome
 
Is this a bit of a let down spot for UF? Mizzu at home and Mauk should be back too...

Like LSU this week..

I would say UGA's game is a similar situation to what Bama's game against them this past weeekend was?
 
gsro said:
Is this a bit of a let down spot for UF? Mizzu at home and Mauk should be back too...

Like LSU this week..

I would say UGA's game is a similar situation to what Bama's game against them this past weeekend was?
Click to expand...

UF in a bad spot situationally. Back to back big wins and game at LSU on deck. But Mizzou has beaten them 2 straight years, including that crazy game last season where Mizzou had 3 or 4 different types of return TDs. I still don't know how much I trust Florida. Ole Miss is beat up and I thought the Florida D could do what the Alabama D should have done, but no doubt that Florida is ahead of where I thought they'd be. Sucks too, because I was hopeful that we could lure McElwain away when Saban leaves, but if Florida's winning, there's nothing we can offer him that they can't.

This is definitely a must-win for UGA. Especially considering what is happening in Gainesville. Alabama is just an awful matchup for UGA schematically, and Alabama teams have consistently proven more mentally tough than any Mark Richt coached team. I think UGA matches up much better with Tennessee. Tennessee is reeling, and Jones' seat is warming up pretty rapidly. UT doesn't defend the run particularly well, and the attitude of the team seems to be of a defeated team already. I guess they could put together an inspired effort, but I think with Chubb able to run the ball better, Lambert will all the sudden look a little more competent. The only thing I can see as a negative for UGA is if they don't respond well to what happened this past weekend.

LSU should roll here, but who knows with Miles? I think S. Carolina is pretty bad, but outside of Fournette, LSU hasn't impressed much. Luckily for them, LF is the best player in the SEC since Cam and they haven't needed much else yet.
 
And lucky for LSU SC run D is so bad they give up 5ypr to bad run teams. LF goes HAM if he plays 3/4 of the game.

Time for another heisman highlight reel compliments of SC
 
Until Dobbs can magically learn to throw the ball down field and get the ball into ANY of their WRs hands besides Wolf the TE
The Vols have no shot.
My Tenny Team Total Wins Under 8 is looking tasty right now.
 
Nobody wants Fournette to run the ball as many times as possible for the next few games more than me
 
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Brandon Zimmerman‏@BZSEC
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Missouri QB Maty Mauk remains indefinitely suspended, and freshman Drew Lock will start against Florida, coach Gary Pinkel says.
 
From what I hear the Rumor is for Mauk, don't expect him to every play again at Missouri.

Rumor was he was selling drugs out of his dorm room and his center snitched on him to Pinkel.
 
In terms of let down for Florida this is a major letdown spot. I wouldn't touch this game with a 10 foot pole. Florida has major revenge. Last year Missouri beat them 42-13 in the Swamp with only 119 Offensive Yards. 20 Passing Yards & 99 rushing yards on 31 attempts.

The only thing scarier would be if this game was 11am local time. Being a night game will help Florida a little.
 
11am start time for LSU.....not usually a good sign. Obv the OBC holds a major coaching advantage and I expect him to throw the sink at LSU and go for broke.

But as major as the coaching advantage is, so is the talent advantage for LSU. I know people get tired of it, but LSU under Miles is historically disinterested in games like EMU last week.......Miles and even Lenny said the team was fucking around all week in practice.....


FLA game is CONFIRMED 6PM in Baton Rouge next week


yummy
 
AU WR Duke Williams dismissed from team. Had heard he was involved in yet another fight this weekend. Never understood why he came back
 
GAYtorsLeafsBills said:
From what I hear the Rumor is for Mauk, don't expect him to every play again at Missouri.

Rumor was he was selling drugs out of his dorm room and his center snitched on him to Pinkel.
Click to expand...

How else do you get through school without using loans?
Oh wait, on scholly---never mind.
 
Assuming you will be on the tide saturday based on your PR? I know amongst Bama fans it's well known how rare it is to face two pro-style offenses in as many weeks but prob not to the casual observer. Think it's another week to get well and build major confidence on both sides of the ball. Assuming Bama values the football, could be another score similar to last week in the 34-10 range. Dreamy matchup for the defense. OVER taking money again has me surprised, again. 16.5/50.5 projects a 34-17 type game, think Arkansas gets to 17 lot less often than they do if you play this out 10 times. Arky TT under may be worth a look, esp if 17 or 17'. How do you see it?
 
CrimsonK said:
Assuming you will be on the tide saturday based on your PR? I know amongst Bama fans it's well known how rare it is to face two pro-style offenses in as many weeks but prob not to the casual observer. Think it's another week to get well and build major confidence on both sides of the ball. Assuming Bama values the football, could be another score similar to last week in the 34-10 range. Dreamy matchup for the defense. OVER taking money again has me surprised, again. 16.5/50.5 projects a 34-17 type game, think Arkansas gets to 17 lot less often than they do if you play this out 10 times. Arky TT under may be worth a look, esp if 17 or 17'. How do you see it?
Click to expand...

Pretty much agree with everything you wrote. PR indicates a pretty strong play on Alabama, and I may, but I consider this a sandwich spot with great potential for hangover/lookahead, and also the backdoor being wide open if the 2nd or 3rd team defense gets in. Just as I think we aren't as bad as we looked against Ole Miss, we're probably not as good as we looked against UGA. At least not consistently. I think the under and Ark TT under have value because I think Alabama's defense may actually be a tad underrated.
 
Added:

UGA -3
Houston -25'
Marshall -5
Miss St -29'
Northwestern +8
Utah -6'
Kansas St +9'
Wisconsin +1'
 
Mentioned in ksimp's thread, but LSU - Carolina likely to be a 6:00 kickoff in Baton Rouge.
 
Saw reports on twitter that at Tennessee's practice today, players were yelling at coaches, coaches were yelling at players, and the general feeling that Butch Jones is losing the team. I was already going to bet UGA, but I think this bears watching.
 
M.O.T said:
Mentioned in ksimp's thread, but LSU - Carolina likely to be a 6:00 kickoff in Baton Rouge.
Click to expand...


:cheers3: Heard this on radio today. Guess LSU gets that 8th home game after all
 
gps_3 said:
Saw reports on twitter that at Tennessee's practice today, players were yelling at coaches, coaches were yelling at players, and the general feeling that Butch Jones is losing the team. I was already going to bet UGA, but I think this bears watching.
Click to expand...
This is 100% true. Butch and 5th yr OL Mack Crowder had an altercation at a practice abt 6 weeks ago. It's been reported he was punched by Butch. But from what I hear from someone that has seen it on the practice film it was just your standard coach grabbing the shoulder pads and trying to get more out of that player. Crowder didn't like it to much and told Butch. "Don't ever touch me like that again" that is when it escaladed.
 
M.O.T said:
7th but who's counting? I went ahead and locked in -13.5 for .5 unit just in case.
Click to expand...

All sporting events must be played on date unless otherwise specified. If an event is postponed and/or rescheduled or a change of venue, the event will automatically constitute "no action," which means all monies for that event will be refunded
 
GAYtorsLeafsBills said:
From what I hear the Rumor is for Mauk, don't expect him to every play again at Missouri.

Rumor was he was selling drugs out of his dorm room and his center snitched on him to Pinkel.
Click to expand...

Yeah mauk is done. Even if he gets reinstated it's locks team now. He is much much better than mauk. Mauk regressed tremendously this yr, possibly due to drug use. Lock has a quick release and a rocket and the offense can operate with him. He puts the ball in the right spot on short passes giving receivers a chance to get yards after catch. The Wrs were plagued with drops with mauk and qb but not with lock. I think its cuz lock gets there quick enough they don't hear footsteps. Also just in a better spot. The offense showed AMAZING progress last week. They still have a ways to go but they headed in right direction now. Even though they only had 300 yards last week, I think 220 came in first half. Then they just played it conservative with a lead a good defense
 
Great thoughts guys.

Adding:

Clem/GT U 54'
WVU -7
Illinois +11
Texas Tech -12'
 
If anybody is considering laying the points with Ole Miss, I would advise against it. I know NMSU is really bad, but Freeze is basically treating this like a bye week. Only 1 starter is expected to play on the OL and the starting RB is out.
 
Grovehard said:
If anybody is considering laying the points with Ole Miss, I would advise against it. I know NMSU is really bad, but Freeze is basically treating this like a bye week. Only 1 starter is expected to play on the OL and the starting RB is out.
Click to expand...
That's nice info
 
Grovehard said:
If anybody is considering laying the points with Ole Miss, I would advise against it. I know NMSU is really bad, but Freeze is basically treating this like a bye week. Only 1 starter is expected to play on the OL and the starting RB is out.
Click to expand...


Quality. Thank you.
 
Grovehard said:
If anybody is considering laying the points with Ole Miss, I would advise against it. I know NMSU is really bad, but Freeze is basically treating this like a bye week. Only 1 starter is expected to play on the OL and the starting RB is out.
Click to expand...
:shake:
 
Not that anyone cares, but the shift in venue changes my line from LSU -13 to LSU -20
 
Adding:

Wyoming +24
Ole Miss/NMSU U 66'
UT/UGA U 59'
UTEP +14'
Mizzou +5
Ball St/NIU O 56
OU/Texas O 59'
 
clowncar said:
Just to echo BAR .. great threads this year gps.
Click to expand...

:cheers3: Appreciate the kind words. Been a fun year so far. As an Alabama fan, when Auburn and Tennessee are bad, I appear much smarter!
 
Added:

USC/Wash U 58
Houtston TT O 48'

Just noticed that I have bet on Houston in 3 different sports tonight.
 
gps_3 said:
Adding:

Wyoming +24
Ole Miss/NMSU U 66'
UT/UGA U 59'
UTEP +14'
Mizzou +5
Ball St/NIU O 56
OU/Texas O 59'
Click to expand...

Agree with you on the SEC Unders. Feel like you could sweat OM early but it's a running clock type snoozer in 2H. Mizzou just isn't a good team, IMO, but somehow they will prob win this one and win the east again. Agree with that one from a situational and gut instinct. Hope you have a great week.

P.S. Cornbread looks shockingly similar to Fournette's father in that avatar of yours :cigarguy:
 
Less than 40,000 tickets sold so far for South Carolina - LSU, going to be a weird atmosphere.
 
M.O.T said:
Less than 40,000 tickets sold so far for South Carolina - LSU, going to be a weird atmosphere.
Click to expand...
haha wow that is interesting. Cmon those other 50,000 fans dont want to hear LSU play Sandstorm and the Carolina Fight Song before they stick it in us?
 
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