gps_3 Week 11 SEC Discussion and Plays

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2015: 106-73-3

Week 10: 15-8

Locked In:

Memphis +7 & +240
Vandy/UK UN 38'
Oklahoma +125
S. Carolina +8
Indiana +13
Mich St -15
Illinois +16
TCU -45
Texas Tech -5'
Ark/LSU OV 55'
Tennessee -41'
Oregon +10



Futures:

Conference title:

OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:

tOSU U 11' -120 (9-0)
AU U 8' +130 (5-4)
TCU U 10 +115 (9-1)
UGA O 9 -140 (6-3)
Ole Miss O 8' -120 (7-3)
Oklahoma O 8' -140 (8-1)
UCLA U 9 -125 (7-2)
Wisconsin O 9 -115 (8-2)
 
Last edited:
Good week on bets and for my team. On to week 11. Here are the SEC games with my PR lines.

UK @ Vanderbilt (-4)

Alabama @ Miss St (+8')

Arkansas @ LSU (-15)

UGA @ AU (-3)

BYU @ Mizzou (+11)

UF @ SCAR (+6')

North Texas @ Tennessee (-39)

W. Carolina @ aTm (NL)

Wow at that my PR line for LSU. Wish we'd see that for real. Looking forward to the discussion fellas. Good luck with your wagers
 
UGA @ Auburn - Auburn -2.5 (47) (White? - Numbers reflect Johnson, would slightly favor UGA with White under center)


Arkansas @ LSU - LSU -4 (64)

Bama @ Mississippi State - Bama -6.5 (49)

Florida @ South Carolina - Florida - 7 (44)

Kentucky @ Vanderbilt - Vandy - 3 (31)

North Texas @ Tennessee - Tennessee -43.5 (64)

Western Carolina @ aTm - aTm -35.5 (62.5) (Murray?)

BYU @ Missouri - PICK (36) (Are Mizzou's African American players really on strike?)
 
Couple major discrepancies between us. Would love to talk about those soon be back in couple hours
 
[video=youtube;rLkqdh2Gcaw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLkqdh2Gcaw[/video]
 
First one that jumps out where we are very different is Arky/LSU. We may be doing things differently when forecasting our numbers based on your comment on hoping that Arky is catching DD and you having -15.

That is the only side I see in conference that was a must play from the jump, opened -9 and down to 8 now. I mentioned it in the Bama thread but the trends support Arky here in terms of series history. Arky has won or kept it within 8 points in 9 of the last 10 meetings and there have been some bad Arky teams in there, one that comes to mind a couple years ago when they were 28 point dogs (LOL) and lost by 4. So it's traditionally a tight series and I think the feel in each respective locker room bodes really well for Arkansas. The Arkansas defense has really regressed the past three games and I think their style of play has kinda changed too from an offensive philosophy standpoint. I'm not sure what Brandon Allen finished with last week but I'm pretty sure he was about 30/40, 450 yards with 6 TD. It was one of the most impressive performances by an SEC QB I've seen this season. Swag Kelly was awesome too. I wonder if Arky was fully healthy at WR just how good this offense could be. I am in the minority, but I think they are the best offense in the conference and I know from an efficiency standpoint they are top 5 nationally. Their problem, as I said before, is defense. I was thinking the 500 yards UT Martin put up was an aberration and the last half of Auburn's drives in that game before but I think they just aren't good at the defense anymore. Good news, as I see it, is they aren't 4 yards and a cloud of dust anymore, credit to Bert for adapting and seeing the emergence of Morgan and Sprinkle to compliment the known entity in Hunter Henry. Speaking of Henry and Sprinkle, I think both guys have potential to have monster games. I would think that LSU offensively comes out pretty ticked off and with something to prove. Just see major advantages for both offenses when on the field. Arkansas has shown they can trade scores now for the past month and LSU is determined to give up 20+ to even the most anemic of offenses they've faced. One other thing to note, LSU's kickoff guy is miserable. Literally almost a guarantee for field position nearing midfield after every kick, which could be often. Another game here where I think it's a shootout and comes down to the final possession and getting 2 scores is too much.
 
The other where we are way off is BYU/Mizzou. You could be closer to the right number than me, the -3.5 or so the market has seems pretty good to me actually I think. This was a nightmare for me to handicap. I don't even know how to quantify and factor in playing at Arrowhead coupled now with the threat of the team going on strike. Mizzou got a pretty thorough whippin last week, much as I expected. Pretty fortunate to even get to 13. I was surprised how overmatched they were on the perimeter defensively as Ross and Wilson just abused them all game. I can't say I was surprised their offense did nothing but the way the Mulldogs threw it on them in bad conditions surprised me. I don't know enough about BYU to want to get involved in this circus. I had a premonition of sorts that the final score was going to be 20-16, couldn't tell in my mind's eye who won, lol - wish I were making that up.

You seen much BYU? Anyone know much about them? Michigan and UConn look to be most comparable defenses cause their schedule looks like an OC's dream. You see two totally different results against both those teams too 0 points 105 yards then 30 and 500+. Looks like they at least have a pulse on offense and don't leak on defense so can see why they are made the slight favorite.
 
BYU goes as far as their O-Line and thus Magnum takes them. He can buy himself time but he's not some mobile QB nad if he gets to the top of his drop and isn't being pressured, he'll beat you more times than not. The reason Michigan murdered them was solely dominating the line. To me BYU 99 out of 100 weeks would be the play sub a TD because they're either going to score one late to win or they're going to stop the anemic Missouri offense; however, this might be the one week with the potential emotion on the Mizzou sideline with the resigning President/potential game not being played now being played. If this was a NFL game I'd say just take the talent but with a bunch of teens/low 20s guys, too much emotion for me to lay points. Wouldn't shock me at all if Mizzou plays like this it's the SEC title game.
 
CK-

I hate my line on LSU/Ark. That's just what the computer spit out at me. I try to not look at lines or even compare PRs team to team before I make my adjustments. My # on LSU may be too high as I did not drop them this week as I saw their issue with Alabama more about the matchup than anything. I also have LSU with a significant HFA, which may skew the # a bit. For me, the PRs are a starting point in my capping, mainly to see where Vegas and I differ, and I go from there. Maybe I have Arkansas too low, but I have them as #29, in a group that includes Utah, Penn St, Arizona St and Cincinnati. Doesn't seem crazy to me there, so I guess I have LSU to high. Situationally, there's no way to back LSU at the current #.

I think Mizzou is dogshit. Even before this mess on campus. I didn't factor that in at all. And actually, I had this as a home game for Mizzou, so it's -14 BYU now. There's no way I'm betting on this one, so I probably won't pay much attention to it to be honest.
 
BYU goes as far as their O-Line and thus Magnum takes them. He can buy himself time but he's not some mobile QB nad if he gets to the top of his drop and isn't being pressured, he'll beat you more times than not. The reason Michigan murdered them was solely dominating the line. To me BYU 99 out of 100 weeks would be the play sub a TD because they're either going to score one late to win or they're going to stop the anemic Missouri offense; however, this might be the one week with the potential emotion on the Mizzou sideline with the resigning President/potential game not being played now being played. If this was a NFL game I'd say just take the talent but with a bunch of teens/low 20s guys, too much emotion for me to lay points. Wouldn't shock me at all if Mizzou plays like this it's the SEC title game.

Great info, thanks. Good point about the emotions too.
 
CK-

I hate my line on LSU/Ark. That's just what the computer spit out at me. I try to not look at lines or even compare PRs team to team before I make my adjustments. My # on LSU may be too high as I did not drop them this week as I saw their issue with Alabama more about the matchup than anything. I also have LSU with a significant HFA, which may skew the # a bit. For me, the PRs are a starting point in my capping, mainly to see where Vegas and I differ, and I go from there. Maybe I have Arkansas too low, but I have them as #29, in a group that includes Utah, Penn St, Arizona St and Cincinnati. Doesn't seem crazy to me there, so I guess I have LSU to high. Situationally, there's no way to back LSU at the current #.

I think Mizzou is dogshit. Even before this mess on campus. I didn't factor that in at all. And actually, I had this as a home game for Mizzou, so it's -14 BYU now. There's no way I'm betting on this one, so I probably won't pay much attention to it to be honest.

Gotcha, thanks for explaining. Whatever methods you use, they work. I don't make PR's anymore so can't really comment on where they would fall for me nationally but somewhere in there seems about right.

I would agree on Mizzou, BYU just such an unknown quantity to me. I won't watch the game either unless I'm in prison and that's what the shot callers will allow.
 
As far as early totals go, Arky/LSU OVER 59 would be it for me.

Would wait to see if the principled bettors would tick up Vandy/UK to 38/38.5 and would look under there. I'm not seeing much in the conf this week other than betting on a shootout in BR and Arky keeping it close.
 
Something to keep in mind on Mississippi State: a player and his father, a former player, were killed in a car wreck after the Mizzou game. I don't mean to trivialize such a tragedy, but you have to think that there will be some added emotion in the locker room and in the stadium. It's tough to quantify that, and State wasnt going to be flat in this spot no matter what, but I think it is worth noting .
 
you guys are fucking beastsssssssssss. Thanks for the amazing thread last week, and the multiple winners.

Internet hugs!
 
Have a feeling Arkansas may be one of those public dogs this week
 
As far as early totals go, Arky/LSU OVER 59 would be it for me.

Would wait to see if the principled bettors would tick up Vandy/UK to 38/38.5 and would look under there. I'm not seeing much in the conf this week other than betting on a shootout in BR and Arky keeping it close.

I'm taking a long look at AU/UGA UN 49'. Both offenses suck and there's not a competent QB in the game.
 
Something to keep in mind on Mississippi State: a player and his father, a former player, were killed in a car wreck after the Mizzou game. I don't mean to trivialize such a tragedy, but you have to think that there will be some added emotion in the locker room and in the stadium. It's tough to quantify that, and State wasnt going to be flat in this spot no matter what, but I think it is worth noting .

Ya I saw that, really sad. No idea how to quantify something like that but I do imagine they will be even more juiced up.
 
I'm taking a long look at AU/UGA UN 49'. Both offenses suck and there's not a competent QB in the game.

Ya at 51 or more I'm with ya on the under - 50.5 most shops so it's wait and see for now. Vandy/UK up to 38 so that's almost where I'd want it, 38.5 and I'm in.

Misread movement on Arky/LSU, down to 57/'. 32.5 -25 forecasted TT. Would love to see Arky TT at 24.
 
Regarding Miss St/Alabama, Jake Coker hasn't been tested on the road yet (the Georgia game turned into a blowout and Alabama didn't score an offensive TD the last 2.5 quarters against Texas A&M) and while I like Derrick Henry a ton, I don't know if he carries them plus a TD.
 
If you're looking for a prop play, UGA has not given up a TD in the 1st qtr all year. They've given up only 12 pts (4 FGs).
 
Regarding Miss St/Alabama, Jake Coker hasn't been tested on the road yet (the Georgia game turned into a blowout and Alabama didn't score an offensive TD the last 2.5 quarters against Texas A&M) and while I like Derrick Henry a ton, I don't know if he carries them plus a TD.

I think this game plays out one of two ways:

It's a nightmare matchup in the trenches for Miss St. They are gonna be bullied. I think the question is going to be what is Mullen gonna try to do. A traditional running attack is gonna get him about 50 yards and a pants down whippin bent over Nick's knee. I tend to think he just scraps pretty much any attempt to line up and run anything other than zone read with Dak and jet sweep type plays - which are really the only things that have been successful against Bama (see Ohio St last playoffs for that clinic and see Tennessee's first drive this year). Not that Mullen even really tries to do too much traditionally in that sense but I think he's gotta try to do that some to keep Bama honest but I really think this is gonna be a lot of quick hitters - slants and screens to his huge WR. His OL is just decimated, they had a third string left tackle in last game and guys shuffling all around. That's a recipe for pain against Bama. I think he's just gotta line up and decide he's gonna just chuck it all around the field and hope he gets explosive plays in the passing game with the big WR. That's really the only way to attack Bama that makes sense based on their personnel and scheme. So that's either going to work and they are going to hit more big plays like they did against Missouri or Prescott may get smashed up and throw 3 picks like he did last year. He's a great QB and exactly the type that has given Bama problems in past but I keep going back to the OL - just gonna hinder him and what he can do, IMO. They have faced some really, really bad defenses so far this season so as good as Dak is I don't think he's really been challenged either although he certainly has in his career. He's gonna be asked to probably chuck it 45 times and run it 15 times, that's just a lot to put on a kid's shoulders. He's the only QB on bama's schedule that has any remote chance of success to do that but I don't know, I don't envy him.

In regards to Coker, while maybe lacking a true road test now that we've seen how they've played out, he has been really good on the road. He's 45/62 on road/neutral against three Top 25 teams (when they played) 2 TD/O INT and 156 passer rating. He only throws about 20 a game on road so far and I don't think that number will be much higher Saturday unless things aren't looking good. I don't think he will need a heroic effort.

I'm with you that I would slight lean to Miss St getting more than TD but I could also see this getting away from them. GPS said it before the LSU game that he thought it would be a Bama cover or outright loss, I feel similarly in my gut about this one. 31-20 wouldn't shock me but really the only games I loved Bama ATS was Arky and they got back doored so I have just avoided and enjoyed totals on the games. Line and total seem pretty sharp to me
 
[h=1]What LSU needs to do in recruiting to beat Alabama: James Smith[/h]
<!-- /headline -->
17225587-mmmain.jpg

LSU defensive coordinator Kevin Steele works with players during afternoon practice on Tuesday, March 10, 2015. (Photo by Brianna Paciorka, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune) (Brianna Paciorka, NOLA.com | The-Times-Picayune)

<!-- --> Print Email
By James Smith, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune The Times-Picayune
Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on November 09, 2015 at 2:00 PM


<!-- /Byline -->
<iframe title="Twitter Tweet Button" class="twitter-share-button twitter-share-button-rendered twitter-tweet-button" id="twitter-widget-0" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/tweet_button.3beb63f1e7d4b547a42d79c021627bc3.en.html#_=1447186211774&count=none&dnt=false&id=twitter-widget-0&lang=en&original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nola.com%2Frecruiting%2Findex.ssf%2F2015%2F11%2Frecruiting_is_the_way_for_lsu.html&size=m&text=What%20LSU%20needs%20to%20do%20in%20recruiting%20to%20beat%20Alabama%3A%20James%20Smith&type=share&url=http%3A%2F%2Fs.nola.com%2FGtrT9qd&via=nolanews" frameBorder="0" scrolling="no" style="width: 55px; height: 20px; visibility: visible; position: static;" allowTransparency="true" data-url="http://s.nola.com/GtrT9qd"></iframe>

<iframe name="f14b9cb4ebe808a" width="55" height="1000" title="fb:share_button Facebook Social Plugin" src="http://www.facebook.com/v1.0/plugins/share_button.php?app_id=&channel=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.ak.facebook.com%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter%2FwjDNIDNrTQG.js%3Fversion%3D41%23cb%3Df75981247be92a%26domain%3Dwww.nola.com%26origin%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.nola.com%252Ff2c0f9a4db9f59%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=56&href=http%3A%2F%2Fs.nola.com%2FGtrT9qd&locale=en_US&ref=s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-share&sdk=joey&type=box_count&width=55" frameBorder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="true" style="border: currentColor; width: 56px; height: 61px; visibility: visible; border-image: none;" allowTransparency="true"></iframe>


<iframe name="I0_1447186211680" width="100%" tabIndex="0" title="+Share" id="I0_1447186211680" src="https://apis.google.com/se/0/_/+1/sharebutton?plusShare=true&usegapi=1&width=&height=&annotation=vertical-bubble&action=share&hl=en&origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nola.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Fs.nola.com%2FGtrT9qd&gsrc=3p&jsh=m%3B%2F_%2Fscs%2Fapps-static%2F_%2Fjs%2Fk%3Doz.gapi.en_US.zolTpmScCEs.O%2Fm%3D__features__%2Fam%3DAQ%2Frt%3Dj%2Fd%3D1%2Ft%3Dzcms%2Frs%3DAGLTcCMv4xTpqq3sPMV2DaiJ-dqSBmx0GA#_methods=onPlusOne%2C_ready%2C_close%2C_open%2C_resizeMe%2C_renderstart%2Concircled%2Cdrefresh%2Cerefresh%2Conendinteraction%2Conload&id=I0_1447186211680&parent=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nola.com&pfname=&rpctoken=40112533" frameBorder="0" marginWidth="0" marginHeight="0" scrolling="no" vspace="0" hspace="0" style="margin: 0px; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 57px; height: 60px; visibility: visible; position: static;" data-gapiattached="true"></iframe>






<tbody>
[TD="align: left"]


<tbody>
[TD="align: left"]

<tbody>
Reddit


</tbody>


[/TD]
Email


</tbody>


[/TD]

</tbody>


<!-- /social_top -->

<!-- /social_mobile --> <!-- series --> [h=3]Latest Recruiting News[/h]
All Stories

<!-- /series --> <!-- Aka Story Package --> <!-- gallery-preview --> <!-- /gallery-preview --> <!-- Aka Secondary Package -->

<!-- /storypackage -->
<!-- /#article_inset --> <!-- Article -->
There are myriad factors that contributed to the Tigers' 30-16 loss against their abhorred rival Alabama Saturday night.
Football is a game frequently decided by individual match-ups and physical prowess, and the Tigers were outmatched, and beat up in Tuscaloosa. Yes, LSU has a similar level of talent as the Crimson Tide, but they just aren't built to beat them right now.
Every football coach in America knows that regardless of how good you are offensively, a great defense is the recipe to success. We see it on every level, and the SEC epitomizes this notion.
The Tigers' offense was nonexistent on Saturday, with the exception of a few big passing plays in the first half that served as nothing more than a deterrent from the inevitable. The roster pieces are there to provide a balanced, physical group that could effectively move the football at points against a lauded Alabama defense, though.
From a recruiting perspective, they have killed it on the trail. They consistently land skill players who rival that of any program in the country. The offensive line is possibly the most talented unit we have seen under a Les Miles LSU team. You can't ask for much more than that.
Those guys simply did not show up. Everyone involved with the offense shoulders some of the blame for the inexplicable showing. What transpired on defense, though, I believe is more definitive.
Tigers outside linebacker Deion "Debo" Jones certainly wasn't "Debo" on the block Saturday night, as the 215-pounder frequently found himself physically restricted when trying to be a factor in stopping Alabama's impressive running attack. The same Deion Jones who has been beastly in the games leading up to this showdown.
Defensive tackles Christian LaCouture and Davon Godchaux were non-factors, with LaCouture being removed from the hole on numerous occasions throughout the night, giving the Crimson Tide backs massive running lanes throughout the night.
On the other end of the spectrum, you had a massive, athletic Alabama defensive front that had zero issues dominating the line of scrimmage, and they did so with 7-man fronts. Not the 8, 9 or 10 guys in the box that other programs deploy to counter LSU's dominant rushing attack. For LSU to get over the top, they have to be able to do the same.
But this is what LSU wanted to build under its old defensive regime, led by Texas A&M defensive coordinator John Chavis; a fast Tigers defense that is a bit undersized, but capable of being effective against spread attacks from their base 4-3 sets.
We are used to seeing LSU move safeties to linebacker, defensive ends being moved inside to play defensive tackle. While it may be the right call in some instances, it can't be the norm. The spread offenses are not beating LSU on a consistent basis; it is an Alabama pro-style offensive attack that has proven to be the thorn in their side.
Once you add the lack of recruiting the right guys up front, especially at the linebacker position, voila, they can't hold up in the trenches and allowed Alabama running backs to account for 278 rushing yards.
The likely average weight of Davon Godchaux and Christian Lacouture is less than 300 pounds right now. The football programs and media guide may tell you different, but that is a practice utilized by every football program, on every level. As a result, Alabama's offensive line rendered them useless on this night. And these are two outstanding football players. But these are two players who should not be lined up next to each other against that type of offensive attack.
Make no mistake about it, the Tigers need to recruit in a way that allows them to match up with Alabama. Nothing more. Nothing less.
How to fix it
To be honest, I believe LSU is already taking massive steps to change the physical make-up of its roster on the defensive side of the ball. The new defensive regime appears to be taking a different approach on the trail. There was a considerable amount of discourse regarding the defensive scheme that newly appointed defensive coordinator Kevin Steele would implement once it was his defense to run.
Circumstance forced his hand, though, with a lack of personnel in place that would allow him to convert his unit to a 3-4 scheme. Regardless of the front, the defensive front seven will be larger in stature with Steele and defensive line coach Ed Orgeron in place, if they continue to recruit the way they are right now.
When 6-4, 300-pound Destrehan defensive lineman Glen Logan committed to LSU, he stated that he was being recruited as a defensive end; a five-technique to be exact. The Tigers already have commitments from Logan, massive 6-3, 320-pound St. Thomas defensive tackle Ed Alexander and Denham Springs defensive lineman Caleb Roddy, who could play as a 300-pound defensive end once he matures. LSU targets Rashann Gary, Shavar Manuel and Neville's Rashard Lawrence are all 290-pounds plus, with Gary and Manuel capable of playing four and five-technique defensive ends at the next level.
There is a different type of linebacker being recruited by LSU, as well. The Tigers have verbal commitments from three linebackers, each of whom has a frame capable of playing at 235 pounds or more. The linebackers they are currently pursuing are also much bigger than what we have seen in previous years.
Karr defensive end Andre Anthony, another LSU commitment, could also excel standing up in a 3-4 scheme, and is currently 6-3, 220 pounds as a high school senior. They may not be able to make the permanent schematic change, but it certainly looks like that is where they are headed.
Regardless of the alignment chosen by the LSU staff, it is apparent that they are trying to get bigger upfront on defense. It is equally apparent that the offensive struggles are not related to the lack of adequate players on its roster. The former can be changed by whom they bring in to play, with the latter being another issue all together.
 
I think this game plays out one of two ways:

It's a nightmare matchup in the trenches for Miss St. They are gonna be bullied. I think the question is going to be what is Mullen gonna try to do. A traditional running attack is gonna get him about 50 yards and a pants down whippin bent over Nick's knee. I tend to think he just scraps pretty much any attempt to line up and run anything other than zone read with Dak and jet sweep type plays - which are really the only things that have been successful against Bama (see Ohio St last playoffs for that clinic and see Tennessee's first drive this year). Not that Mullen even really tries to do too much traditionally in that sense but I think he's gotta try to do that some to keep Bama honest but I really think this is gonna be a lot of quick hitters - slants and screens to his huge WR. His OL is just decimated, they had a third string left tackle in last game and guys shuffling all around. That's a recipe for pain against Bama. I think he's just gotta line up and decide he's gonna just chuck it all around the field and hope he gets explosive plays in the passing game with the big WR. That's really the only way to attack Bama that makes sense based on their personnel and scheme. So that's either going to work and they are going to hit more big plays like they did against Missouri or Prescott may get smashed up and throw 3 picks like he did last year. He's a great QB and exactly the type that has given Bama problems in past but I keep going back to the OL - just gonna hinder him and what he can do, IMO. They have faced some really, really bad defenses so far this season so as good as Dak is I don't think he's really been challenged either although he certainly has in his career. He's gonna be asked to probably chuck it 45 times and run it 15 times, that's just a lot to put on a kid's shoulders. He's the only QB on bama's schedule that has any remote chance of success to do that but I don't know, I don't envy him.

In regards to Coker, while maybe lacking a true road test now that we've seen how they've played out, he has been really good on the road. He's 45/62 on road/neutral against three Top 25 teams (when they played) 2 TD/O INT and 156 passer rating. He only throws about 20 a game on road so far and I don't think that number will be much higher Saturday unless things aren't looking good. I don't think he will need a heroic effort.

I'm with you that I would slight lean to Miss St getting more than TD but I could also see this getting away from them. GPS said it before the LSU game that he thought it would be a Bama cover or outright loss, I feel similarly in my gut about this one. 31-20 wouldn't shock me but really the only games I loved Bama ATS was Arky and they got back doored so I have just avoided and enjoyed totals on the games. Line and total seem pretty sharp to me

What I mean by I like the fact Coker hasn't been tested is that I haven't see what he'll do when a team/situation is getting to him (i.e if the game starts 10-0, is he going to persevere through it). In all his games this year away from Bryant, he's gotten a fairly comfortable game setting and rode it out to victory without having to do much. And when his teams were getting leads, it's not as if Coker's great play was the catalyst. I definitely could see this getting away from Mississippi State but I simply believe that the natural letdown of beating LSU last weekend plus the fact they've struggled against teams who can air out in recent years gives me enough value if it stays above a TD. I appreciate the conversation (because I think talking through both sides helps gain perspective you maybe didn't see) and GL if you're on the other side.

I also feel like this is such a public line that by kickoff Saturday, it could be close to 10.
 
Jesus I am watching PAwwwwwl right now

Bama is like ND of the South....fucking people call in from Illinois, "Pawwwwl I am a diehard Alabama fan....."

so annoying, they are everywhere
 
What I mean by I like the fact Coker hasn't been tested is that I haven't see what he'll do when a team/situation is getting to him (i.e if the game starts 10-0, is he going to persevere through it). In all his games this year away from Bryant, he's gotten a fairly comfortable game setting and rode it out to victory without having to do much. And when his teams were getting leads, it's not as if Coker's great play was the catalyst. I definitely could see this getting away from Mississippi State but I simply believe that the natural letdown of beating LSU last weekend plus the fact they've struggled against teams who can air out in recent years gives me enough value if it stays above a TD. I appreciate the conversation (because I think talking through both sides helps gain perspective you maybe didn't see) and GL if you're on the other side.

I also feel like this is such a public line that by kickoff Saturday, it could be close to 10.

Gotcha, thanks for the clarification. Agree that he hasn't been tested like that away from home. I knwo that I sent a lot of mixed messages in my last post about the game and that's because I have lots of mixed feelings about it. I threw out that score prediction but if I HAD to take a side I'd take the 8 or so with Miss St.
 
With what's currently available - Would go with following for the week:

Kentucky/Vandy UNDER 39
Arky +8
Arky/LSU OVER 55.5
Georgia/Auburn UNDER 51

Have a few props and team totals that interest me depending on exactly where they land but that would be about it. Barring major movement or weather I don't see anything else that would likely move into playable range.

Looks like BYU is taking money but I don't have any confidence in my read there other than my 20-16 premonition! Would be dog or nothing I suppose and maybe would consider and under if it was mid 40's.
 
Adding:

Memphis +7
Vandy/UK UN 38'
Oklahoma +125
S. Carolina +8
 
Curious to hear any thoughts you have on USCe. I am leaning that way too

Fading Florida. Clinched the East, SC been competitive recently and UF can't run away from anyone IMO, definitely shouldn't be laying over a TD on the road
 
Adding:

Indiana +13
Mich St -15
Memphis +240
Illinois +16
TCU -45
Texas Tech -5'
Ark/LSU OV 55'
Tennessee -41'
Oregon +10
 
I hearing there may be a qb change for Vandy vs UK.

Coach has lost his mind.. How do you pull McCrary?? He is 5 for his last 23 with O TD 2 INT and and averaging just under 2.5 yards per attempt.. Some gall that Mason has. Shurmur was about 3 of 11 against Missouri for 1.8 yards per attempt and a pick. Who they going with?
 
Coach has lost his mind.. How do you pull McCrary?? He is 5 for his last 23 with O TD 2 INT and and averaging just under 2.5 yards per attempt.. Some gall that Mason has. Shurmur was about 3 of 11 against Missouri for 1.8 yards per attempt and a pick. Who they going with?

Should have a tryout like Florida did for the backup kicker
 
Back
Top