RambleOn
The Law of Winning
Cashed on my only posted play of Bama +2 last week, on my way to a 8-2 +12 unit or so day. Got another SEC matchup that I really believe in:
Georgia -17 @ Ole Miss
I have already said much of this, but I wanted to post this for those who haven't read the discussion threads on Sunday night.
Public Perception
We were supposed to have a good team this year. One of my roomates is a friend of a coach, and he PROMISED me we'd win 6 games this year. I swear to God I laughed until I cried. Brent Shaeffer, our freshman QB, is supposed to be the savior of our program. Maybe one day, but that day is far away. Our first game of the season, I think the line was about right. I was on Ole Miss, and had we not given up a desperation drive late Touchdown AND two point conversion, we would have covered instead of pushing the -3 line. Second game of the year we traveled to Missouri. I didn't know what to expect, but advised against taking us on the road to Fondybadger, citing that Missouri's D line was super tough and we didn't have and O line to match. Not-surprisingly, we were destroyed 34-7 I believe. The third game, we traveled to Kentucky. This was a must-win for us, getting 10 points on the road. I was on Kentucky in a heartbeat, against everyone. I believe Kentucky won 27-10 or so. This week, the books come out with Wake +3.5, and I JUMP to hit the line. It drops to 2.5 and stays there. Word around town is that this is a must-win for us. Wake's QB was gone, RB was gone, and an important O-lineman was gone. If we were going to get ANYTHING going, we must win here. 27-3 was the final, with Wake Forrest getting the big W. We were favored in this game. It's hard to imagine, but somehow Ole Miss is getting overvalued. Now, line comes out Georgia -17 +102, and the juice clearly reflects the still-clinging public sentiment: "this is too many points for an SEC matchup. Plus, Georgia almost lost to Colorado."
The Facts
Georgia is 3-0, pitching shutouts against South Carolina and UAB. Georgia may not have a "prolific" offense (5th in SEC in scoring offense), but I like their D. In the SEC, Georgia is numero uno in opponent third down defense: they've allowed only 14 third down conversions all year, at a 25% clip. Conversely, although Georgia isn't that great at 3rd down conversions, Ole Miss is dead last in the SEC in allowing them, letting opponents get the 1st at a stunning 51% clip. Also: Georgia has sacked the opposing QB 11 times, while only being sacked 5 times themselves. Conversely, Ole Miss has been sacked 11 times, while only getting to the opposing QB 5 freakin times. Here, Ole Miss's weakness will show through. I think Georgia hang's onto the ball and methodically moves down the field until they score. when Ole Miss has the ball, GA will be making Shaeffer hit the dirt or throw it away quickly. Something funny: Georgia has scored more touchdowns from the red zone than Ole Miss has even reached the red zone. Something even funnier: Ole Miss is 0-9 ATS their last 9 games. Yes my friends, O-9. And this game, 1-3 on the year and 0-4 ATS, when GA has pitched two shutouts and just had a letdown game and is poised for a breakout peroformance, is the game Ole Miss is going to cover for the first time in a 10 pack of games? Give me a break.
Motivation
Someone posed this question: Does Georgia rest here? Tennessee is on deck, do they take Ole Miss lightly? I think not. After the horrible performance against Colorado, I think Georgia makes a statment here. Also, even if they slack off a bit, I don't think we can keep up with them anyway!
Bottom Line
The books and the public do not realize how bad Ole Miss is. The fact that we're at home gives this line value, because at Georgia, we'd be 3+ TD underdogs. And, after Georgia's slump game against Colorado, can't you just see everyone jumping on the 17 points and thinking this was money in the bank? I've been wrong before, and I may be way off on this one, but I don't think so. It's GA or stay away. I'll be on Georgia for my biggest bet of the week.
Good luck guys. :cheers:
Georgia -17 @ Ole Miss
I have already said much of this, but I wanted to post this for those who haven't read the discussion threads on Sunday night.
Public Perception
We were supposed to have a good team this year. One of my roomates is a friend of a coach, and he PROMISED me we'd win 6 games this year. I swear to God I laughed until I cried. Brent Shaeffer, our freshman QB, is supposed to be the savior of our program. Maybe one day, but that day is far away. Our first game of the season, I think the line was about right. I was on Ole Miss, and had we not given up a desperation drive late Touchdown AND two point conversion, we would have covered instead of pushing the -3 line. Second game of the year we traveled to Missouri. I didn't know what to expect, but advised against taking us on the road to Fondybadger, citing that Missouri's D line was super tough and we didn't have and O line to match. Not-surprisingly, we were destroyed 34-7 I believe. The third game, we traveled to Kentucky. This was a must-win for us, getting 10 points on the road. I was on Kentucky in a heartbeat, against everyone. I believe Kentucky won 27-10 or so. This week, the books come out with Wake +3.5, and I JUMP to hit the line. It drops to 2.5 and stays there. Word around town is that this is a must-win for us. Wake's QB was gone, RB was gone, and an important O-lineman was gone. If we were going to get ANYTHING going, we must win here. 27-3 was the final, with Wake Forrest getting the big W. We were favored in this game. It's hard to imagine, but somehow Ole Miss is getting overvalued. Now, line comes out Georgia -17 +102, and the juice clearly reflects the still-clinging public sentiment: "this is too many points for an SEC matchup. Plus, Georgia almost lost to Colorado."
The Facts
Georgia is 3-0, pitching shutouts against South Carolina and UAB. Georgia may not have a "prolific" offense (5th in SEC in scoring offense), but I like their D. In the SEC, Georgia is numero uno in opponent third down defense: they've allowed only 14 third down conversions all year, at a 25% clip. Conversely, although Georgia isn't that great at 3rd down conversions, Ole Miss is dead last in the SEC in allowing them, letting opponents get the 1st at a stunning 51% clip. Also: Georgia has sacked the opposing QB 11 times, while only being sacked 5 times themselves. Conversely, Ole Miss has been sacked 11 times, while only getting to the opposing QB 5 freakin times. Here, Ole Miss's weakness will show through. I think Georgia hang's onto the ball and methodically moves down the field until they score. when Ole Miss has the ball, GA will be making Shaeffer hit the dirt or throw it away quickly. Something funny: Georgia has scored more touchdowns from the red zone than Ole Miss has even reached the red zone. Something even funnier: Ole Miss is 0-9 ATS their last 9 games. Yes my friends, O-9. And this game, 1-3 on the year and 0-4 ATS, when GA has pitched two shutouts and just had a letdown game and is poised for a breakout peroformance, is the game Ole Miss is going to cover for the first time in a 10 pack of games? Give me a break.
Motivation
Someone posed this question: Does Georgia rest here? Tennessee is on deck, do they take Ole Miss lightly? I think not. After the horrible performance against Colorado, I think Georgia makes a statment here. Also, even if they slack off a bit, I don't think we can keep up with them anyway!
Bottom Line
The books and the public do not realize how bad Ole Miss is. The fact that we're at home gives this line value, because at Georgia, we'd be 3+ TD underdogs. And, after Georgia's slump game against Colorado, can't you just see everyone jumping on the 17 points and thinking this was money in the bank? I've been wrong before, and I may be way off on this one, but I don't think so. It's GA or stay away. I'll be on Georgia for my biggest bet of the week.
Good luck guys. :cheers:
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