Georgia -17 @ Ole Miss


The Law of Winning
Cashed on my only posted play of Bama +2 last week, on my way to a 8-2 +12 unit or so day. Got another SEC matchup that I really believe in:

Georgia -17 @ Ole Miss

I have already said much of this, but I wanted to post this for those who haven't read the discussion threads on Sunday night.

Public Perception

We were supposed to have a good team this year. One of my roomates is a friend of a coach, and he PROMISED me we'd win 6 games this year. I swear to God I laughed until I cried. Brent Shaeffer, our freshman QB, is supposed to be the savior of our program. Maybe one day, but that day is far away. Our first game of the season, I think the line was about right. I was on Ole Miss, and had we not given up a desperation drive late Touchdown AND two point conversion, we would have covered instead of pushing the -3 line. Second game of the year we traveled to Missouri. I didn't know what to expect, but advised against taking us on the road to Fondybadger, citing that Missouri's D line was super tough and we didn't have and O line to match. Not-surprisingly, we were destroyed 34-7 I believe. The third game, we traveled to Kentucky. This was a must-win for us, getting 10 points on the road. I was on Kentucky in a heartbeat, against everyone. I believe Kentucky won 27-10 or so. This week, the books come out with Wake +3.5, and I JUMP to hit the line. It drops to 2.5 and stays there. Word around town is that this is a must-win for us. Wake's QB was gone, RB was gone, and an important O-lineman was gone. If we were going to get ANYTHING going, we must win here. 27-3 was the final, with Wake Forrest getting the big W. We were favored in this game. It's hard to imagine, but somehow Ole Miss is getting overvalued. Now, line comes out Georgia -17 +102, and the juice clearly reflects the still-clinging public sentiment: "this is too many points for an SEC matchup. Plus, Georgia almost lost to Colorado."

The Facts

Georgia is 3-0, pitching shutouts against South Carolina and UAB. Georgia may not have a "prolific" offense (5th in SEC in scoring offense), but I like their D. In the SEC, Georgia is numero uno in opponent third down defense: they've allowed only 14 third down conversions all year, at a 25% clip. Conversely, although Georgia isn't that great at 3rd down conversions, Ole Miss is dead last in the SEC in allowing them, letting opponents get the 1st at a stunning 51% clip. Also: Georgia has sacked the opposing QB 11 times, while only being sacked 5 times themselves. Conversely, Ole Miss has been sacked 11 times, while only getting to the opposing QB 5 freakin times. Here, Ole Miss's weakness will show through. I think Georgia hang's onto the ball and methodically moves down the field until they score. when Ole Miss has the ball, GA will be making Shaeffer hit the dirt or throw it away quickly. Something funny: Georgia has scored more touchdowns from the red zone than Ole Miss has even reached the red zone. Something even funnier: Ole Miss is 0-9 ATS their last 9 games. Yes my friends, O-9. And this game, 1-3 on the year and 0-4 ATS, when GA has pitched two shutouts and just had a letdown game and is poised for a breakout peroformance, is the game Ole Miss is going to cover for the first time in a 10 pack of games? Give me a break.


Someone posed this question: Does Georgia rest here? Tennessee is on deck, do they take Ole Miss lightly? I think not. After the horrible performance against Colorado, I think Georgia makes a statment here. Also, even if they slack off a bit, I don't think we can keep up with them anyway!

Bottom Line

The books and the public do not realize how bad Ole Miss is. The fact that we're at home gives this line value, because at Georgia, we'd be 3+ TD underdogs. And, after Georgia's slump game against Colorado, can't you just see everyone jumping on the 17 points and thinking this was money in the bank? I've been wrong before, and I may be way off on this one, but I don't think so. It's GA or stay away. I'll be on Georgia for my biggest bet of the week.

Good luck guys. :cheers:
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Very good write-up here, Ramble, and you make some good points. Gives me something to think about this week. Thanks for the effort!
Sooner - thanks, bro. Just trying to do my part. I have a strong feeling that Georgia covers here. Like I said, I have been wrong in the past, but have been right on every game this year. I hope we can make some money. I also will be teasing GA to -10 and looking for another game to add or subtract 7 points to.
G/L doubt you know you team well; I am disappointed in them this year as I think they've underachieved drastically (as their ATS record attests).

That being said...I really appreciate your confidence in this bet; give LY's UGA/Miss St game a looksee...very similar circumstances and a lower spread...I don't trust UGA in these situations.

I do agree's the 'Dogs or pass, but I'm definitely passing.

enjoy the write up ramble but the bottom line for me is an inexperienced qb on the road is too much for me to lay 17.
Thanks for the great post. 2 things about UGA concern me:

Colorado rushed for 173 yards

UGA rushed for 54 yards.

I just don't trust a team that can't run the ball or stop the run especially on the road. The Rebels also have a hard time stopping the run so maybe the over is the bet here.

Good Luck and thanks again for the great read.
UGA can't run the ball? Check the past 3 years in the SEC. They had one bad game rushing...
Georgia finally moving in the right direction, IMO. Currently at -17.5 with the juice shaded their way too. This will move to 18.5 by gametime I believe.
Thanks, Tim. I take the points about GA's QB being shaky to heart - but this one should be an easy ATS cover for the dogs. I don't see Ole Miss getting their first ATS cover in 10 games when Georgia is this good and is coming off a game that they almost lost - they will get back to basics and pound, pound, pound.

GL to you too, Tim.
They will be splitting snaps this week. I think Matthew will start. Either way thats a lot of points for a richt team to cover. I would love to go back and see how many times hes covered spreads over 7 on the road.
ABCs - No disrespect meant, but I think you're missing the point of my post. It doesn't matter if GA can't usually cover 3 points on the road - we're that bad. This is a fade Ole Miss play much more than a play on Georgia. GA could have Chef Boyardee at QB throwin meatballs for touchdowns and still cover against our sorry squad.
I know my dogs.. never bet them when they are dd road favorites. Richt is the king of taking a lead and letting a team backdoor cover. Ole miss looked a little better though..