Friday Openers and discussion

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
NBA - Dec 12
4:35 PM
701 ATLANTA +3-110 o195½-110
702 MIAMI -3-110 u195½-110

4:35 PM
703 PHILADELPHIA
704 CLEVELAND

4:35 PM
705 TORONTO +4-110 o207-110
706 NEW JERSEY -4-110 u207-110

5:05 PM
707 CHICAGO -2½-110 o202½-110
708 MEMPHIS +2½-110 u202½-110

5:05 PM
709 SAN ANTONIO -7-110 o190½-110
710 MINNESOTA +7-110 u190½-110

5:05 PM
711 NEW ORLEANS +7-110 o188-110
712 BOSTON -7-110 u188-110

5:05 PM
713 INDIANA +7-110 o199-110
714 DETROIT -7-110 u199-110

6:05 PM
715 ORLANDO
716 PHOENIX

7:05 PM
717 LA CLIPPERS +9½-110 o188-110
718 PORTLAND -9½-110 u188-110

7:35 PM
719 SACRAMENTO +16½-110 o216-110
720 LA LAKERS -16½-110 u216-110

7:35 PM
721 HOUSTON
722 GOLDEN STATE
 
Will certainly play the Clippers. Clippers a robust 4-16 su on the road on Friday. Feels like an under to me but may duck that. Clippers locked in for 1 unit plus 9.5. If Portland wins it goes up. If Portland loses it may still go up.
Still like Portland a lot. Just not a spot they should cover in. Might look at their ATS wins.
 
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Almost frightening how much Boston wants to beat the Hornets. Hornets have been a good favorite but a bad dog. Last 20 as a dog 8 or less 1 cover where they did not win. Last 3 wins poor exercise in nothing games. Right now would have to play Boston. Trade might have helped the Hornets but doubt enough right now.
Pretty strong lean to NJ. Know that will not be popular with my Toronto friends but---Have lost count on the number of angles I found in support of Nets. Minimum of 1.5 depending on refs maybe a 2 unit play. Smith as a ref could not keep me off this.
No lines out yet but cetainly you have to consider Orlando. Players probably like each other and want to win as a team. Suns cashed for me vs the Lakers but that had very little to do with them. Currently this team has a overworked point guard that just wants to leave and many good pieces that need to be made into a team. And the Knicks are coming. Hard to imagine betting on the Suns for a long time now.
 
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Because they are Boston. To start with the Big 3 remember being the isolated We can not Wins for a Long time. Now they seriously want to crush other good teams and especially Western Teams that gave them trouble when they were Can Not Wins. Last 2 years for Garnett in Minn 2-4 vs NO. And No Beat The Big 3 in NO last year. Pierce has lost 2 of his last meetings with them. You can see People like Nash shake hands after a loss. The Big 3 just are looking for hit men. NO might take the throne so they want to chop them into little pieces. A loss and Garnett would start raving, maybe foam at the mouth.
 
Kings and Sixers two Dog possibilities for me w/o research. Dont care about revenge in the Laker game because they arent play well and the gap bewteen winning SU and by 17 pts is gigantic obviously . Sixers because add Z to the Cavs injury list..
 
any other specific reason? Your reasoning, altho valid, would just suggest betting Boston against every good team in all spots. Is this any different?
 
There is quite a bit of friction between KG and Byron Scott.
Know that KG has this game circled...


Layin the wood there :spank:
 
whats the friction? sorry for askin the Qs, but I really don't know the history bw these teams or players. sum1 care to sell this play to me? 2m actually looks pretty boring imo. may play NJ, looks like thats it tho
 
Boston will roll Orleans tomorrow-- Orleans Offense will struggle to score all game-

Detroit should crush Indy, a team with no inside game, nesterovich and Murphy are garbage and indy should be shooting long jumpers all game- also detroit should dominate down low vs indy--

Like those 2--

Lakers to win moneyline with Cleveland Moneyline parlay with Indy over Detroit in NFL and Philly over ClevelaAND IN NFL its not losing this paralay
 
Boston will win the game, it would literally take new Orleans to play their best game of the season while Boston does not play a great game,

Boston plays a good game they win easy
Boston plays a great game they win easily
Boston plays an OK game, they win anyway
Boston plays average game, they probably still win
Boston plays a bad game, they may lose the game--

Orleans only wins if they play lights out their absolute best game, that is the way it works-- Boston is a covering machine, dont bet vs streaks go with them or you will end up broke
 
Tomorrow is a great day to find some parlay partners for INDY and Philly in NFL--

The 2 NFL plays are sure winners- Now tomorrow thinking of Cleveland at home MLINE, Boston at home MOneyline, Lakers of course revenge should win by at least 1-

NOt sure about Spurs but they are playing good and should dispose of Minny pretty easily--

I see a 4--0 tomorrow on MOneylines--

Boston wins-
Lakers wins
Cleveland wins-
Spurs wins--

Loving Detroit also, can anyone talk me off this? Bar what is the word, indiana looks shit on the road, even the RAPS outmuscled them inside, Granger just jacks up long shots, TJ FORD sucks and gets rejected all day-- INdiana has no penetration no dribble driving and rarely gets to the free throw line-
 
Heat, Sixers, Nets, Grizz, Wolves, Hornets, Pacers, Clipps, Kings, Warriors w/out looking at anything at all. Obviously will be against a few of my leans and not playing all the games.
 
Depending on the line Sixers are legal. Very good in first game of a b-b. Only negative is that they are frequently garbage. Kings legal too but also complicated. The best spot was the game After the loss at home to go against the Lakers. That was high definition. Here it may still be a good idea but am not close to looking at it yet. Lakers know they have taken a wrong turn and that they have to remake themselves. Not sure yet what that will produce.
 
The part about the Lakers remaking themselves is so true. Funny to see a team peak so early in the season, but I do think they will peak again close to playoffs. They have the ability to go on a really bad ATS run here though.
 
Some teams are just too much work. Detroit lost the rebounding war to Washington. That is my only argument with their game vs Washington but it is a real one. That was a situation where in the past the officials could not have screwed up the game and They let it happen. A lot like the Suns, the old gang is leaving and for a while everything is shaky. Better I think to let the Pacers and Detroit work that game by themselves. J Picks could easily be right about the Pacers but they are a headcase team too because of poor management and I like simpler games.
 
tuck321 said:
Kings legal too but also complicated. The best spot was the game After the loss at home to go against the Lakers. That was high definition. quote]

please explain- I was thinking after the loss, it would be a good time to bet that they'd right the ship and get the W. the line was too big/bet was a bit too square for my taste, so i didn't play it, but please explain. is it like a fading them off an emotionally draining night?
Click to expand...
 
Well keep in mind that I'm just throwing shit on the wall as I look at the whole slate. Not endorsing any of the above plays. I'll play a quarter of those plays max. Indy is a tough team to bet on unless you know whether they are going to hit their shots as they don't draw any fouls. Still Detroit is bottom third in the league for FG% defense. With Detroits new lineup I could see this game turn into a bit of a shootout.
 
JPicks said:
The part about the Lakers remaking themselves is so true. Funny to see a team peak so early in the season, but I do think they will peak again close to playoffs. They have the ability to go on a really bad ATS run here though.
Click to expand...

Agree 100% my friend-- lakers are in one of those arrogant attitudes that we are the Lakers and we are not playing any D and really dont care this early in the year about any games-
They pick the games they will try in, vs any shit teams they wont blow them out, they just dont care on Defense, not to mention KOBE barely plays, I mean he sits the whole 6 minutes of the 4th qtr vs Phoenix--

Lakers are probably thinking you know what Its a long year, just chill, dont kill yourself, play less minutes and fuck the D for now--

THey are not able to all of a sudden play DEFENSE in one night, it will take them time to get back to playing defense--

Lakers are SOFT- CONSIDER them the New Orleans Saints playing at HOME--

They can win but cannot beat Boston or tough ass defensive teams-

they are so easy to drive on its not even funny- I think their team defense suckjs also
 
I dont see Indiana winning vs good teams when tehy draw 0 fouls on the road-

Granger just keeps shooting , he does not care, he probably figures I will shoot everytime someone gives me the ball, it will look I can score 20+ points in this league and then he will get a good contract even though he scores but takes so many shots
 
Outside of the Clippers the Lakers are now 2-7 ATS laying 10 or more points . One ATS win was the Nets who they were close with at half(NJ won ATS in the 1st H)...also Toronto ...

Only 3-6 ATS L9 at home after quick 3-0 start:shake:
 
SportsNut said:
Outside of the Clippers the Lakers are now 2-7 ATS laying 10 or more points . One ATS win was the Nets who they were close with at half(NJ won ATS in the 1st H)...also Toronto ...

Only 3-6 ATS L9 at home after quick 3-0 start:shake:
Click to expand...

lol, why it gotta be outside of the clippers
 
Raps could have some payback in mind after collapsing and losing in OT vs NJ. Disturbing how the Nets lost vs NYK the other day
 
I actually posted earlier this year here about the Lakers problems at home first game after an immediate home loss. I think it came up in the Chicago game. Its something that has been with them for a long time. Then you had the fact that it was the game between them and the Kings. You had the fact that Smith was an official. And you had the fact that the Suns get blown out at Home by the Lakers but playing At the Lakers the 2 teams seem to fall in a 6-9 range normally. You also had the fact that in the old days if the Lakers really trashed a team normally the next time was not a blowout but that was a Old one. Really take your pick I felt a few of those angles would produce money.
 
Disturbing how they lost to the Knicks!!! If you were an Arab I do not think you would ever get a message from Allah. Its off theme but you might look at their losses this year and see what happened when they lose by under 10 and over 10. They lost to the Knicks with Toronto (See Vince Carter) and Chicago coming up and when they were off an upset win. They did what they were programmed to do.
And today they will also do what they are programmed to do which is WIN THIS GAME.
 
I meant if you watched Devin Harris in the 1st Quarter . He scored 14 straight at one point and NY had no clue had to guard him. NJ looked like world beaters and figured NYK playing 6 guys on a B2B would struggle in the 2nd H. The exact opposite happened with NJ struggling to score 46pts to 64 . I know you brought up the rivalry but that NJ domination was about Kidd vs Marbury both obviously no longer involved. Remember Marbury replaced Kidd in Pho and Starbury always had something to say . To me NJ ruled not only because they were better for that time period but Kidd everytime wanted to remind Stephon what was what....

Notice it was the "NEW" Knicks who did all the damage . Harrington , Thomas and Chandler . What else should we notice ? That all 3 are very similiar players and statures ? NJ going to struggle with the 6'8 and 6'9 guys who are athletic and hit jumpers ? To bad Tor doesnt have guys that fit that bill really....

I here you with the spots but cant see NJ doing much here . This little streak of not losing consecutive games has to end as well . With CHI on deck this to me is the more likely loss...
 
Bar actually has a point about the Detroit game total. I may cheat though and just play the Pacer team total. That other one is tricky.
 
I like NJN TT under and actually lean UNDER DET 200 pts. Indiana's offense has been very ineffective on the road but want to see the big guys logic on that ...
 
honestly don't like the NJ TT under

I think NJ's offensive strengths play right into Toronto's defensive struggles with VC and Harris. Toronto's main problems on DS are defending scoring guards as Calderone/AP cannot keep up.
 
I think under is a real possibility in NJ. I also think Bar is right about Detroit. I just made a small bet on over 199.5 and tomorrow will match it with the Indiana team total. Nut you are reaching for conclusions without using tools I know you have to study the situation before drawing conclusions. Have you checked the Nets record in first game of a b-b. Have you checked their home record on Friday this season. Did you look and see some of the margins of loss they had received previously from Toronto. Do you actually think Indiana was putting out any effort to beat Jermaine. That teams knows they are doing nothing this year and they Owe Detriot big time and Toronto means and meant nothing to them. That is Not true for the Nets.
Oh 2 other details. Toronto's recent road record where they have lost 7 out of their last 10 and the fact that they are small and poorly constructed. I know these are details you can ignore because of the giant dog value they represent playing NJ
 
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Problem is Harris and Carter have carried NJ for so much recently that if they start to struggle abit they cant score. Which is what happened vs NYK imo...

VC 18 , 14 , 18 and 16 L4....

Just food for though but at 105 thought it was going to be a high number to crack...
 
Let's go game after game:

Heat - Atl - Atlanta comes after three losses in Texas triangle, coming close to the line from one side of it or another. Heat are after four wins in a row, but 1 - 4 ATS only, so the wins show more the level of the rivals and not Miami's great form. Should have been PK, but I don't probably skip this one. If Hawks weren't coming to this one after four straight Unders, would have considered one here.

Nets - Raptors - Raptors should make a small run now, but NJ are so inconsistant that I don't see myself playing their home games this way or the other. One interesting thing though, one of the reason for coach changes was the desire (as I understood) to play more open game. Both losses came with Over and the only win was through Under and stopping Pacers on 88 points only.
One reason I may play the Raptors here is that they have a home game against the on Monday and I'm almost sure they will win and cover at least one of them, so if today is a bust, there still room to correct.

Boston - NO - As I mentioned already, KG and Scott got issues. I have a strong feeling that West and his mouth against Perkins and KG will also lead to some angry looks at least. Don't see those three getting alone guarding each other 40 minutes in piece. The line is correct actually here I think, but Celtics to win looks solid. The line? Maybe worth a small TV bet. Under looks good here. Don't see Boston pulling another 100+ points performance B2B, plus Hornets can do D. Boston to score 90+, NO 80+, should be around 180 points, no more than that. Under is a solid play here.

Pistons - Pacers - Pistons with three L in a row. Don't see them continue this stretch. Pacers with 4 L in a row and that scares me, since this team is too unstable for any long streak. I like Pistons schedule here, since they have Bobcats on a road, revenge Wizards game after that at home and than Utah at home. I think they will take at least two lines in the four games, probably even three so plenty of room to correct if Detroit fails. Detroit -7 - small bet here.

Minni - Spurs - Wow, Spurs struggled in Minni lately. Double OT this season, one point win last year. Spurs with 4 wins in a row, Minni with 8 losses in a row, losing the first six ATS as well, but won the last two. Can't see myself playing Spurs here. Wolves or nothing.
 
dont care what the line is....magic and the over...over for sure!!! j-rich hasnt meshed with phoenix yet so the coach will jus have them run run run!!!
 
tuck321 said:
I think under is a real possibility in NJ. I also think Bar is right about Detroit. I just made a small bet on over 199.5 and tomorrow will match it with the Indiana team total. Nut you are reaching for conclusions without using tools I know you have to study the situation before drawing conclusions. Have you checked the Nets record in first game of a b-b. Have you checked their home record on Friday this season. Did you look and see some of the margins of loss they had received previously from Toronto. Do you actually think Indiana was putting out any effort to beat Jermaine. That teams knows they are doing nothing this year and they Owe Detriot big time and Toronto means and meant nothing to them. That is Not true for the Nets.
Click to expand...

I understand you and you are correct that I am just throwing ideas out. However the season is 20 games deep how can I take 5 or 6 game samples as gospel?

NJ on front ends -

8 pt home dogs to DET they won SU. Also happened to be AI's 1st game so the fade the superstar rule and the fact they were inflated had more to do with the win then playing a front end IMO.

4 pt home dogs to ATL they won SU. They faced a tired and shorthanded ATL team who was minus Josh Smith. Devin Harris returned after a 3 game absence. ATL 3rd roadie in 4 days , 4th in 6 days and overall 6th game in 11 days . NJ won the 4th Q by 10 pts for the margin of victory.

@ Toronto +8.5 this was the crazy comeback and eventual win in OT .

@ LAL +13.5 hung tough for a half then got smoked.

@ Utah +9 nice SU win. UTAH banged up was playing 3rd game in 4 days and 4th in 6 day but all home . Huge wins at home in 2 prior before NJN but unnoticed they never really had a day off because it was Thanksgiving ....(played on 26th , TDay ,28th , NJ on 29th) while NJ had 2 days rest prior

vs Minny -7. Pretty simple IMO . NJ off an embarrassing loss to Wash off the successful road trip .....


So they were favored 1 game . Which typical means they were undervalued .

Is NJN -3.5 cheap ? I dont think so .

H2H with Tor? Home team always did well in the series , the 1st beatdown the Nets were w/o starting PG Jason Kidd with inferior backup . The 2nd one was late in the year , NJ had beaten them at home 6 days earlier with playoff chances all but gone for them.....

I dont see any of your points about NJ to be honest . It's all circumstance. NJ plays @ Chi then @ Toronto again..

NJ had 3 days rest and just got smoked in the 2nd H facing a team who had 6 healthy players in a B2B. Who happens to play across the river ....at 11-8 and 4-5 at home I didnt realize was just punting games now...

Time for some sleep see what tmrw brings......

Have to look at the DET totals its artifically high so suspect there is a reason. DET has 96 or less pts in 8 of 10 so the offense is not clicking and Indy is struggling to break 90 on the road last 3 or 4...
 
Oh 2 other details. Toronto's recent road record where they have lost 7 out of their last 10 and the fact that they are small and poorly constructed. I know these are details you can ignore because of the giant dog value they represent playing NJ ..


Raps also were minus O'Neal or limited minutes and played some Western powerhouses Utah , LAL and Denver , went through a coaching change and played that Cavs team which is playing pretty good lately. Thats the past 4 away games you are seriously weighing that ?

What was the NJN spreads vs those Western teams ?
They were 4-3 SU away and 5-2 ATS vs the East early on ....
 
Think Joe and J are right about the Grizz tomorrow. Bulls are bad in first game of a b-b. Bad on 2 days rest. Bad at the Grizz and bad on the road and they have covered 3 spreads in their last 10 games. Bet half a unit plus the points will come back ml tomorrow for the rest.
Joe might be right about Minn too. I am not convinced Parker is healthy. I know the Spurs are younger now and a great team but they have had trouble there in the past and they have to be running on close to fumes.
Not going to matter Sammy. Nut is going to bet on 5-15 last 20 on the road Toronto because of all that value. See the Spread matters a lot since the Nets have failed to cover in the games they have won----0 times. This season Toronto has beaten Atlanta and Miami 2 team that are over 500. I doubt that Miami will end over 500 but Atlanta may. I think the Nets will.
 
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Be carefull NUT vince owns the raps, he can score on them all day and loves beating them--

raps are a shit road team, with such a low line stay as far as possible from the Raps here--

They are like the Saints they can win at home but lose on road
 
Does Sacramento always give the Lakers fits these days. I remember they won last year late in La and won last meeting and give them a good game--

Line is 16.5, Lakers are so overrated, I honestly think other than the revenge factor they could not care less about teams like Sacramento, they dont really try hard vs them.

Revenge is the only thing scaring me away from making SAC a huge play as a team that plays no DEFENSE cannot cover -16.5- ALso they cannot win when their superstar KOBE seems to take longer breaks vs weaker teams at home.
 
I lean under in the VC/Raps game. If I were to take a side, it would be VC.

Lakers will come out and blow the doors of the Queens. Kobe was down right pissed at the end of the last Queens game, you could see it in his face and demeanor. He didnt have the same energy vs. the Suns; he unleashes on the Queens tomorrow night. Stay away from the Queens, its a sucker bet.
 
tucks point about boston being extra focused for the hornets is completely ture but with the way peja has heated up (15 3's his past 3 games compared to 15 total 3's the previous 7) im not sure fading nawlins right now is a good idea. and looking at their schedule, after they beat phoenix on the 3rd, they had memphis and char at home, with plenty of time off in-between so they've basically been looking ahead to this game with boston for the past 10 days.


looks like the lakers are gonna go with walton as the starter for a bit as vlad is being punished for his lack of focus in the sactown game (per a radio interview with rambis)

artest and maggette are likely out for tomorrows game

over in phoenix? jrich should juice up that offense and suns D aint stoppin the magic
 
Very home chalk ref's in the Laker game. Maybe a under direction as well.
One very (oops) strong under ref in Detroit
 
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