Friday Nite Lites...Week 3

horses

horses

Brady licks Marino's knob
This is probably the best weekday matchup of the year, though I think Auburn - WVA also play during the week, so I guess it's close.

This will actually be my biggest bet of the weekend; I hope to be able to come back to this thread and provide a nice write-up, but frankly, that doesn't always happen.

Bottom line is that my rankings coming into the season had USF as a 3 to 4 point favorite over Kansas on a neutral field; I've seen nothing the first two weeks to dissuade me from those thoughts...despite the OT effort last week from USF vs their in-state rivals. I bet KU last week and thought their effort was rather lethargic against La Tech; they are definitely missing the RB and two OT's from last year and are just not as explosive on offense.

This is starting to sound like a write-up...(see 'Horns thoughts on this game as well, as I agree completely).

This will be my biggest bet of week 3.

South Florida -3 (-120 at the Greek) over Kansas (1.5 units)

I will be looking to update my shitty record as well later on...
 
GL this week Horses - I really loved that SF defense last year but I am having problems getting the Oregon bowl game out my head. I really do like SF's program and what they have been able to accomplish and Grothe can make some things happen offensively. What's your opinion on the Kansas D overall?
 
TimH,

Kansas defense returns 9 st off of LY's squad; however, their two losses are an AA on the DL and a #1 DC at CB that allowed them to cut the field in half. It's real tough to determine how much these two losses hurt, because they've faced absolute crap on offense the first two weeks. I fully respect their team and the year they had last year, but everything lined up for them...for instance, they didn't have to visit a team of this caliber. South Florida rocks at home and this will be a tough trip for the Jayhawks. Reesing has my full respect and if the 'Hawks cover, it'll be because he had an incredible game.
 
their two losses are an AA on the DL and a #1 DC at CB that allowed them to cut the field in half.

i couldn't agree with this statement more ... Talib allowed them to do so much defensively that they can't do anymore now that he plays on sundays. no opinion on the game but think that point is very spot on.

gl this week horses
 
USF plays very different at home than away. They will be fired up for this game no doubt. Especially with WV losing last week. They know the Big East championship is pretty much in their own hands. I know it's early but this is the biggest game of the year for USF. The USF defense got embarrassed last week by an anemic UCF offense in the 4th qtr. The defense has something to prove this week and look for Selvie to be in the backfield early and often. Homerism aside, I really don't see how Kansas stays with 10 points of USF this week. I will be on USF big this weekend as well. GL.
 
Thx Kyle, appreciate you stopping by. Hope El Paso treated you as well as it did the 'Horns.

Thx TopDaddy...:shake:

ATP...let's cash this bad boy...:shake:
 
gl horses...one thing worth mentioning in that usf/ucf game last week, was a pick 6 and a kick return really turned that game around...usf's defense was dominating for most of the game and ucf garnered a lot of momentum from those two plays. ucf was doubled up in first downs, total yards, passing yards, and rushing yards...

also, i read somewhere (maybe here) an article that grothe's cell phone was somehow found by ucf fans, and it got around...they were hounding him the days leading up including death threats to family members, which made him and his family have to enter with armed security...don't know how much that had an affect if any, but it certainly couldnt have helped him...i'd be a little weary and different i think. he did have a pretty good game, but did throw 2 picks and one for a td...
 
:cheers: I see USF dominating Kansas on offense and harrasing them on Defense.
 
I loved how USF opened at 6 and the entire public jumped on Kansas!:36_11_6:


money;
 
GL with this one, horses ole buddy.
I see most of the forum agrees with you.
I like both teams, both coaches, and I do poorly on hi-profile games so I'll sit this one out.

But very much under the radar is a game betweeen two California teams that came to the midwest and gave pretty good accounts of themselves last week. I think both San Jose st and san Diego St might have won the statistical battle while losing the game. Nebraska's special teams and defense scored against SJS.
I see where your aztecs gat a mini touchdown this week. Now this game is never close but maybe this is the year. ??
Anyway, any feel for this game? I usually am attracted by starting a game with points already on the board for my side.
Thanks
old bull
 
Hey Bull, thx for the wishes; plays on posting forums often gather momentum, but yes, it's nice to see guys like BroadwayJoe, Aztec and SHSUHorn (among others) on this play. The Fighting Mangino's took a fair amt of my cash LY and I hope to remedy that...was on them last week, fading 'em this week.

broadwayjoe, I read that too; a little perspective is probably in order for some of these ucf fans.

Azzie...ddk...:shake:

BAR...water's quite warm; jump on in, buddy! (j/k, you know you're going to do what you're going to do).

This game really is a head-knocker; opinions abound on both sides since both teams, while traditionally not high profile, have gotten a lot of airplay the last year or so. I see USF has beaten WVA twice and Auburn in the last 1+ yrs. KU's road efforts LY were solid vs TAMU, Colorado and Okie Lite, but they aren't as good as last year and USF is better than all those teams. They also have a little revenge from 2 yrs ago and this is their one and only chance to get it. I think they have the better offense, defense and HFA. KU definitely has the ST advantage and the intangible talents of Reesing...

KU has two chances of covering:
- Reesing totally outplaying Groethe
- ST's breakdown by USF

I'll take my chances...and yes, that was the write-up.
 
Good luck horses. I might be at that game with my son but it's gonna be a last minute thing. I'm not betting it cause dont wanna jinx it if I go. haha. I might have to throw something in it if I don't go though. I like the Bulls here as well. :cheers: :shake:
 
SS and GatorBait...:shake:

Bull, Never got back to you last nite; I made the spread btw SDSU and SJSU seven points; I definitely lean SJSU under 7 so I can't recommend the dog in this tilt. Tomey is a very underrated coach at this level and I think he is doing a fine job at SJSU. I'm sure it was partly his schemes that helped shut down the 'Huskers last week. The Aztecs are going the one-dimensional route with the quick passing game as their young OL isn't could enough to est the run consistently. See SJSU with edges on defense and at the RB position and of course, coaching as I mentioned.
 
Yeah this is a game I had circled. I drank the USF kool-aid even to the degree to take a flyer at 66-1 to win the National Championship. I love that Selvie will be lining up against a rFR. You couldn't have asked for this game to have shaped up better for us USF backers with KU dominating through two games, USF not caring last out and the public betting it down. I would have taken -5 and loved it. I've got -3 at -115.

Enjoy the game.
 
For those still undecided....USF just announced they're changing their kicker from Alvarado (who can be a complete clusterfuck) to a true freshman. The new kid is supposed to have deep range and accuracy to boot. Big game situation with a true freshman could be intereseting though. Personally, I think anything's an upgrade from Alvarado.

HERE's a link to an article about it.
 
ER, Appreciate the post, man. I like that flyer, because running the table is certainly not out of the question for them. Of course, they could easily lose tomorrow. I agree how it shapes up and that's why I threw an extra half unit on this game.

TSizz, ST's is a concern in this game; I'll trust Leavitt but this may be a move of desperation as well. Alvarado has been brutal after being solid last year. I bet his g/f dumped him or something.

This is brutal, but Wassou now has to get down to Waco and play Baylor tomorrow nite. Betting Baylor as a favorite against what has been (or used to be) a legit program seems crazy but I can't resist the spot, so I'll bet smaller than usual:

Baylor -2 over Washington St (.4 units)

Yes, this game has been moved to Friday.
 
horses,

Alvarado was super inconsistent last year...and missed some HUGE kicks. He has a decent leg (which is why he's still been retained for punt duties) but is a chithead. I'll take my chances with the new kid.

here's a scouting report on the frosh:

2-star prospect by Scout.com and one of the top kickers in the state. 3A first team all-state place-kicker as a junior and second team as a senior as well as all-state punter his senior year. Had a career long 55 yd. kick his junior season. Versatile athlete, Lettered in tennis (3 yrs.) and soccer (4 yrs.).Was named Male Athlete of the Year in 2007 by the Lakeland Ledger.Chose USF over UCF and FSU.
 
GL tomorrow horses. This is a tough one for me, but see a lot of other good cappers on this one with you. I may ride along for a small play.
 
horses said:
ER, Appreciate the post, man. I like that flyer, because running the table is certainly not out of the question for them. Of course, they could easily lose tomorrow. I agree how it shapes up and that's why I threw an extra half unit on this game.

TSizz, ST's is a concern in this game; I'll trust Leavitt but this may be a move of desperation as well. Alvarado has been brutal after being solid last year. I bet his g/f dumped him or something.

This is brutal, but Wassou now has to get down to Waco and play Baylor tomorrow nite. Betting Baylor as a favorite against what has been (or used to be) a legit program seems crazy but I can't resist the spot, so I'll bet smaller than usual:

Baylor -2 over Washington St (.4 units)

Yes, this game has been moved to Friday.
Click to expand...

:cheers:money;
 
TSizz, He is Brazilian...soccer player...cool as a cucumber...i bet he kicks well. What kicks did Alvarado miss LY that were huge? I'm not actually questioning...I'm more curious cuz i can't remember.
 
JUst starting to look at this now.. Leaning your side.. GL , hope you hit it!:cheers:
 
In last year's upset at Auburn, Alvarado nearly single-handedly cost the Bulls a chance at the upset by missing four attempts -- from 37, 45, 37 and 21 yards. But he banged through an 18-yard field goal with 55 seconds in regulation to send the game into overtime.

There's plenty more examples....but that one was burned in my conscience, and probably cost me a couple years of my life.
 
The quote about the Auburn game is from THIS team synopsis. It's a decent read (with some personnel errors) if you want a better idea of their squad.
 
Emmitt Rudd said:
Yeah this is a game I had circled. I drank the USF kool-aid even to the degree to take a flyer at 66-1 to win the National Championship. I love that Selvie will be lining up against a rFR. You couldn't have asked for this game to have shaped up better for us USF backers with KU dominating through two games, USF not caring last out and the public betting it down. I would have taken -5 and loved it. I've got -3 at -115.

Enjoy the game.
Click to expand...

Great post. 100% agree. :shake:
 
With you on USF. Good luck tonight! hopefully the lights stay on long enough to watch the game. We about to get hit by IKE

:cheers:
 
Stay safe Geezy; football ain't shit compared to what SE Texas is about to face.

Tee*Dub...thanks for the wishes, 'bro.

TS, I even bet USF LY vs Auburn; completely forgot about that pathetic effort by USF kicker.
 
^that makes one of us, horses...fuck, was that bad. usf special teams in general are horrible...that's the only way i see us not covering today
 
Nice hit last nite Broadway, I agree, we need a wash in the ST's department tonite. I'll probably turn the channel the first time they run the new kicker out there tonite, lol. BOL this wknd.
 
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