Friday NBA Thoughts




S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Well had the sides correct and the totals horribly wrong ...which isnt so bad if you are flat wagering...(I don't)...Good news was a 9-2 nite in College...

I am so SICK right now an hour's worth of writeups just erased cause I hit the home key by accident!! Was some of my best stuff ever......on the early games now all gone......I cant fucking believe it!!!!!! ASk me anything about those 3 games I had it all covered..disgusted....as you can see I added some plays on those games..thats why I almost always use my blog first.....one time I dont and I get fucked...what a a waste.....


Sides -

Celtics +3.5 -110(5x) ML +132 (1/2x) Raps -2 -110 (3x)

Bobcats +7 -107 (3x) ML +270 (1/2x)

Hawks +3 -106 (5x) +3.5 -110 (5x) ML +137 (1x)

Wolves PK -105 (5x) ML -116 (5x)

Bulls ML -162 (3x) not crazy about but still playing

Kings +7 -108 (3x) ML +270 (1x) NO PLAY

Blazers +4.5 -110 (10x) ML +161 (2x)

Lean : NYK +7 but need better went +7.5 -120 (4x) & Bucks +10 -110 (3x)

Totals -

Under 201 -109 Wash (3x) wait to halftime could add more...expect a higher scoring 1st.

Over 198.5 -107 NYK (6x)

Under 184 NO -105 (6x)

Over 216 -104 Suns (8x)

Over 198 +100 wait Sonics (8x)

Lean : Under 187 ATL (3x) and Over 196.5 Dallas (Pass)

1st Half Thoughts

Under 102 -105 Toronto (2x)



Working on the rest of the card....:drinking:
 
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I think they are all good looking plays Nut. Still debating that Sonics total, but it looks really good. BOL tonight bro.
 
I like those plays nut. I'll be on the Portland ML tonight and that's it for my ML dog plays. Glad to see you're on it. I was thinking of waiting until 6:00 or 7:00 tonight to see if the line moves up. I've definitely missed some value on some of my recent plays by getting the line too early.

I may tail you on the Sonics over too.

Good luck:shake:
 
Kev ~

Celtics getting the 3.5 pts (5x) just means 5 units. I sort of have a scale of 1-10 which I base my plays on and play rather small dollar values. Rather then always typing units out I subsituted X in its place...

Thanks Macdamn and Smola!

I would say you have to guess which lines will move...with Portland...you might squeze a few bucks extra out but the vig is already shaded towards this game moving closer to 3.5 then 4.5 so I owuld say +160 is probably the best your gonna get and have a better chance of losing itthen getting more but actually I think this line holds steady.....I dont think the books want to make this 4.5...that was a BoDog or SIA line I got....

Same goes for ATL and Boston I felt these were the top numbers...most of the other games I could see moving...except I dont think Ind gets past 3 or Milw past 10...

its alot of guess work and you have to put yourself in the shoes of the avg bettor...what will he be thinking...

Personally I tend to like having what I see as value being the opposite of what seems logical....

I have some comments .....I just feel like shit and want to wait abit...

One thing is Boston public dog right now....not liking that.....so I may be off that...the other 3 sides are all solid value plays IMO......

The totals I mentioned in last nite's Killa's thread ...I played them this morning and noticed at about NOON they got steamed a few points...
 
Well I think I lost alot of my desire to writeup games now that 75 minutes of work went for naught!

8PM
NYK @ DET
-Tough spot for DET off the road win in Miami . However I feel after a 5 day layoff last nite was there warm up game to get in sync which should help there offense . With that and hopefully a competitivegame I really like the over here...

Knicks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog.

Isiah returns to Auburn Hills as NYK not a big deal since he did it as a Pacer as well...NYK 5-5 away but 1-6 @ MSG. Just wanted a little more value if I took NY since they have not played well in DET losing 8 straight...missed +8 hopefully its get back there. Its close but seeing 103 -97 minimum...now 198.5 total and think DET win streak is smoke and mirrors....they struggled with Char and ATL at home plus pulled out close wins in @ Wash and @ Miami....teams underperforming right now.....

-In New Orleans The Hornets should be w/o Peja and West but also Bobby Jackson. I really dont see how Chi cant win this and will play the ML -162...small... plus might add the game minus the points at some point


- In Minnesota Simply put I had this game @ -3. Last year Minny was -2.5 in this matchup and I dont see what has changed if anything Wolves are on the up swing of late. I have been riding them repeatedly as I felt they were undervalued still the public has not caught on. They won SU in Denver as +5...just made no sense at a PKem or even -1.....Randy Foye is emerging....while DEN has been dogs to just about everyone away including some of the weak EAST teams...ther recent streak left them overvalued iMO...

In Dallas the mavs continue to ride that streak...I think 5 or 6 is accurate here so abit inflated. I like Sac here cause tehy ae playing well of late but not enough value to load up on them...cant help but like Diggler at less then 100%...vision problems would probably hurt your shooting touch...seems sort of obvious...Little cocnerned with Sac losing 3 straight to solid upper tier teams liek GS , Utah and SA but also Dal only been tested at home once versus a solid squad in Minny...
 
What you did put out is still good stuff Nut...too bad the write-ups got killed...love a good read
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Sports-You have alot of action tonight. Which can be a good thing. I haven't had time to look at the NBA today because I'm working late. I think I'll trust your judgment on these and tail you, and hope we will cash these games. Good luck, to both of us!</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Anyone who spends as much time as you did should be comended for their efforts, hats off to your devotion to this site! Let's bring home the cash Sports!</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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Thanks terp...

just trying to finalize what is a medium or lesser play...

I will be updating soon and definetly shortly before each tips off ...

GL
 
Riding w/ you on Atl...like the thoughts you and Killa have been discussing and also locked in Knicks +7, Dal O197, Sea o198...also big (for me) on Houston NCAAF tonight...1x @ -4.5 and 3x @ -6
 
Plays -

Sides

Blazers +4.5 -110 (10x) ML +161 (2x)WIN +8.00 net
Wolves ML (-111 avg) (10x) Loss 11.10
Hawks +3 -106 (5x) +3.5 -110 (5x) ML +137 (1x) L -11.80

Big sides -14.90 Sorry...

The other sides are PLAYED but works in progress if I will STAY on them...so be patient with those...

Totals-
Under 201 -109 Washington (3x)L -3.27 Again will revisit at halftime could add to
Over 198.5 -108 Pistons (6x) Win +6.00 Could be adding to before tip(SIA still had 198.5 doubled up)


Under 184 NO -105 (6x) Loss -6.30

Over 216 -104 Suns (8x) Win +8.00

Over 198 -110 Seattle ( 8x) Win +8.00


Totals +12.43

Only -2.67 !

NCAAB

VMI +2 -102 (1x) L -1.02
ML +118 (1x) L -1.00
1st H ML +112 (1x) WIn +1.12

North Dakota State ML -109 (7x) wont be suprised if they trail at half though WIN +7.00
Coppin State +9 -110 (4x) ML +380 (1/2x) WIN & ML +5.90
Over 64.5 -125 1st Half LaSalle (2x) WIn +2.00
Tenny 1st H -10.5 -108 (4x) Win Under 143 -110 (2x)L (net +1.8)
Lean Over @ Davidson but waiting to Halftime
William & Mary -9 -110 (3x) L -3.30
Northwestern State +16 -110 (6x) 1st H ML +460 and ML +1040(1/2x each) Push and -1.00 ML
1st Half over 71.5-108 1st H (3x)Loss -3.24
Tex- Pan +19 -110(4x) Win +4.00

Net CBB +12.26 plus 2nd Half plays....
 
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The other NBA sides:

Celtics +3.5 -110(5x) ML +132 (1/2x) downgraded these ..
Raptors -2 -110 (3x) by middling some

Net -3.00

Bobcats +7 -107 (3x) ML +270 (1/2x) lessen my ML play....

Net -3.50

Bulls ML -162 (3x) gonna stay on it but not crazy about it

Net +3.00

Kings are a NO PLAY


Knicks +7.5 -120 (4x)

Net -4.80 OUCH


Bucks +10 -110 (3x)

Net +3.00


TOTALS
Under 187 -110 ATL (3x) L -3.30

Actually lean towards the Toronto over but just hoping its a sluggish start...

This post -8.60 thanks to 1 pt in Det otherwise even...
 
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Parlay (s) (1x each)

Houston CFB ML -204, Hawks +144 . Blazers +167 , Wolves -118 (1x)

Houston CFB -204 , ML Hawks +3.5 , Blazers +4 ,Wolves ML

Both Lost -2.00
 
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If for some reason I able to get out of the rest my Boston play (2x) at Halftime I almost definetly will......
 
This site has been down awhile so I couldnt put up my 2nd Half plays & ideas but all I did was go with what I said would have done...which I gues didnt matter much if you didnthave access to the post

NCAAB 2nd Half
Over 73 .5 -116 Davidson (3x) Win +3.
Coppin State +4 -127 (5x) WIn +5.

NBA 2nd H
Wiz -4.5 -113 (1x) hedge Win +1.00
Under 99 Wiz +106 (5x) Loss -5.00
Over 102.5 -116 raps (4x) Loss -4.64
Hawks ML -124 (3x) L -3.72
Wolves -3 -109 (3x) L -3.27
Bulls +2 -110 (3x) L _3.30
Over 100 det +105 (2x) Win +2.10

regular plays / sides
Hornets +3.5 -110 (1x) hedge my ML WIn +1.00
Mavs -7 -110 (3x) Win +4.00


And I think that gets my updated.....LOL
 
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Last one :

Pacers + 4-105 (5x) ML+151 (1.5x)Win +2.5

New rule for me tmrw the games I see with extreme value I play early after that I just wait till be fore gametime. Its really killing me!!

Good Luck all...
 
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dsilike the Pacers now and will go Seattle ML -140 2nd H (6x) to wash out my play....Sonics just kept clawing back very similiat to Toronto earlier IMO...
 
Nah bro...just the scoreboard...I see it possession by possession...


Actually gonna trust my instincts here...one of the few times tonite...

weird line move to began with , Ind 3rd away in 4 nites could be tired in the 2nd H or flat and Seattle just controlled the 2nd Q IMO.....whuch to me usually dictates the 2nd Half..

Since I cant get a SIDE correct tonite gonna ride the Sonics in the nd Half not including or on top of my washout

ML -143 Seattle (8x)

Indy will fall short trying to win there straight away...and with another game on deck if they fall behind big it could be the bench at the end.....
 
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