Friday NBA Thoughts

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Had the Suns game nailed but was amiss with the Bulls game.......

7PM:
Milw @ Philly :
The key here is Boykins status. He is said to be attending a funeral and MILW is hoping both he and Hodge will be available Fri nite. If Boykins plays even unfamiliar with his mates I think he helps keep the game competitive which IMO plays to an OVER then. Philly defensively has been clueless and Milw really hasnt been much better. The recent Tor game is misleading cause it slowed down drasticlaly once it became a blowout. it was 28 up after 1 and 54-46 @ Half . Similiar in DEN 60-49 @ Half but w.o Williams it became tough to battle back...

Dallas @ Indy :
With the Mavs you must realize in backends they are 8-1 UNDER. On 1 day rest 11-11 .

Games played on the road with 1 day rest :
@Hou 107
@ LAC 103
@ Char 85
@ Utah 101
@ Sac 91
@ Sea 95
@ LAL 101
@ Utah 105

Being a rematch wher Indy played very well for 3quarters I have to like Indy here. The home team is 10-2-1 last 12 ATS in the series. I really think this game mirrors the one played in Dallas.

Therefore : Indy +4.5 -110 {3units} & Over 186.5 -110 {2units}

7:30

Tor @ Boston :
How can you not like Toronto here. I just dont want to lay such a price away with a team not proven on the road. Boston in a similiar spot to Milw was and that was more like -2....

However Tor can play defense and scoring will be a concern for Boston...


Therefore: Under 189.5 -110 {3units}

Charlotte @ NYK:

Seriously who knows what to make of either team here? However I do think the line is accurate and low if anything. Lean towards my NYK boyz but I know they dont play two halves of good basketball. SO maybe I will wait till half till get involved. On the flip who the fuck knows what to expect from this Char team...32 of 38 FTs @ Det....seesms like they have an edge over NY there if they get to the line alot....The Knick offense is playing well and Char has struggled defensively I mean how does DET put 8 in the 2nd Quarter..but yet finish with 96? Expecting NY around 105 here they have the offense clicking. Felton maybe less then 100?? twisted ankle...Char has weapons if they are clicking in Carroll and my off the bench...

Therefore : Over 198 -110 {2units} The number is 7 pts higher then last time which had 190 at regulations end but only 25 4thq points


Pistons @ Atlanta :

Injuries...Lue , Zaza , Claxton all out.....

Hawks seem to be playing some defense but I am not crazy with Pachuila in the middle. Think Atl will struggle to get 85 points here. DET should kill them here after a loss but not sure I trust them at this point...

Therefore : Under 183.5 -110 {2units}

8PM:
Minny @ Memphis

Not sure why Grizz are small favs here ...Wolves playing solid ball and lost by 1 pt last time out. Memphis has lost to Boston and SA at home squeaked by Toronto and caught LAL in a good spot....have this game @ PK...Why fade memphis overs..?? though I am being cautious cause this is a heck of a high number....

Therefore: Wolves ML {3units} & Over 217 -110 {2units}

wash @ New Orleans

How competitive this game is will signal if thos sails over or not......Wash offense is clicking there is very little in the way of defensive presence IMO for NO. So looking at 1st H over or 203 over....

That takes us to the late games....
 
mostly agree with thoughts, im glad you like MIN vs MEM as imo Grizzlies must have problems with better defenses with their crazy style. ATL is clueless tonite same as BOS but both road favs are rather fair or maybe overvalued little. I wouldnt bet against Dallas. Today i have no official bet but i wait for some value odds on livebetting.. leaning : DAL ml, UTA ml, HOU ml, BOS under, TOR ml, DET ml, MIA +5, lets see what of these i can for value odds! GL
 
imma actually trying the under in MEM tonite. 217??? did you everthink you'd see that number for a MEM game? I know these r the new Grizz but Minny insist exactly a juggernaut so i'll take my chances on the highest total of the nite.

I like some of your sides.....

GL nut:cheers:
 
Sort of a logic play . As long as they keep pushing Memphis totals lower then where they open I will keep playing overs. Never ever did I expect this. However nor did I ever expect a 46 pt 3rd quarter from Memphis in my lifetime. I think against LAL they had 200 pts in the last 3 quarters alone.....in three of the past 4 home games they sailed over 240.....215 ish doesnt do them justice......

I guess the best way for an under is for Minny to win SU...gonna be interesting for sure....BOL

Good Luck Rogino with the live betting...I think it is better to go that route since you can hope fro some slow starts n the road. Like Miami some myself....
 
Early Card: 8-2-1 +16.30 (0-1 -2.00 ML Parlay)

Pacers +4.5 -110 {3u} ML +160 {1/2u} +2.50
Over 186.5 -110 Dallas {3u} +3.00

Over 188 -110 Philadelphia {1u} +1.00

Under 183.5 -110 Atlanta {2u} -2.20

Under 189.5 -110 Boston {3u} +3.00

Over 198 -110 New York {2u} +2.00

Wolves ML +105 {4units} +4.00
Over 217 -110 Memphis {3units}+3.00

Over 102 -110 Wash 1st H {2u} PUSH
Over 203 -110 Washington {1u} -1.00
New Orleans +4-110 1st H {1u} +1.00

ML Parlay -2.00: Philly (-280) , Det (-375) , Tor (-260) , NYK (-260)
(payout +2.30) 1.75u to get 4u....some awful ML's...1/4u on Milw +240ML hedge this was my real concern

Late game upcoming....
 
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Late games:

Sac@ Portland:

hard to like either side...doesnt seem to be much value in the line. Kings looking for revenge and Portland has basically been bad outside of a couple sound halves past 8 games...Kings havent been much better...Blazers play some defense at home but Sac doesnt seem to play any....

Houston @ Denver :

Would like the over here except with Camby playing fairly well and Rockets playing under on the road doesnt seem to make sense. Probably a repeat of what we saw vs SA..definetly lean Houston and under but styaing away....

Under 197 -110 Orlando {5units}
Magic +4.5 -110 {2.5u} ML +155{1/2u}

You have the Magic seemingly returning to there Under ways....past 5 games only 1 team has even cracked 80points (86)....LAL defensive effort has been solid at home recently IMO..

Both teams have possible key injuries...Kobe's questionable groin and Turkoglu's mystery illness/ virus......Ariza played well but is gone for awhile..

Just basically like how Orlando is playing and they do have so called payback.....

Seattle +5 -110 {4units} ML +180{1/2u}
Over 201.5 -110 {3units}

really think Utah is still in fade mode as road chalk. Seattle competes they just cant shake that bad quarter. Seattle played well in Utah and despite losing the first meeting Sea was laying 4.5 pts...I think Utha has become overvakued in astretch where they arent playing well and Deron Williams might be less then 100%....

Heat +5 -110 {4units}ML +175 {1/2u}
Over 209.5 -110 {4units}

Just think Miami is starting to come together and with Walker & Posey returning you would think they might want to show something...

Do you need explanations for GS totals at this point? Well Miami allows a ton of ppg away...expect both teams to play in the 100's..few teams fail to crack 106.
 
Late Card: 5-1 +15.78

Under 197.5 -110 Orlando {5units} -5.50
Magic +4.5 -110 {4u} ML +155{1/2u} +3.50

Seattle +5 -110 {4units} ML +180{1/2u} +4.90
Over 201.5 -110 {4units} +4.00

Heat +5 -110 {4units}ML +175 {1/2u} +4.88
Over 209.5 -110 {4units} +4.00
 
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Second Half :

Over 95 -110 Philly {1unit} +1.00

This game is gonna somewhat as expected. Thought Philly owuld have played better but we still have another 24 minutes....
 
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Second Half : -2.20

well I must admit I found it odd the 2nd h total was just 93 in Indiana and hoping I am just making something out of nothing...

NYK -4.5 -110 {1unit}

Again just sticking to my earlier gameplan..NY rarely wins 2 halves...

Pistons -7.5 -110 {1unit}

hawks shot a ridiculously high pct early...
 
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Thanks rufus...been doing alot of sideways action this week after a solid week....tonite I feel the tide turning...all those late points to get my 1st half push in New Orleans was beautiful! Glad you enjoy the comments...BOL!
 
Second half : -2.20

Over 102 -110 Wash {2units}

Looks like Wiz are somewhat flat maybe thinking ahead..??
 
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wow...color me embarassed:spank:

mem cant play D now and they run/gun

i guess no total is too high:down:


nice call there nut:bow:
 
Its understandable why anyone would see the value in under. As I said as long as they keep betting down the totals expecting an under , I will be contrarian and play the over...to bad I hedged half of it..nothing special from me...
 
On the other side of the Seattle play @ Utah -4.5, I have seen too many games this season where Seattle comes out flat in the 2H. They simply do not have the offensive or defensive prowress to make a comeback if they lose ground against a team like Utah. Utah has played very well off losses this season, and I expect them to play well tonight even with Williams under the weather.
 
Thats actually a great point. Unfortunately I was well aware of the Seattle 2nd H fiasco's seen vs Miami , in Dallas , in Pho to name only a few...If my brain was working properly and maybe I had a real sportsbook to use I may have seen the error in my ways and went only 1st H...all kidding aside I absolutely agree and do now sort of wish that I had played SEA 1st H but it just slipped my mind for whatever reason...but at least I still have the possibility of 2nd H hedging....still not a big believer in Utrah as road chalk and for me this was more about playing the line then the game sort of like Indy tonite....Good Luck bro!
 
Second Half :

Blazers +3 -110 {2units} +2.00
Over 94.5 -110 {1unit} +1.00

I like how Portland took control late 2nd quarter sort of like Char did but I ignored that for some reason..teams usually see that momentum spill over into the second half....Went with the ovefr cause after that sluggish start everyone has to be thinking under and I hope a close game will mean some late easy buckets..expecting 50 in the third..
 
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Sorry Retburj , its unfortunate some sort of bell doesntgo off like you have mail type thing...YES ...I expect Portland to win or lose on a buzzer beater..

Second Half :

Denver ML +100 {1unit}
Over 93 -110 Houston {2units}

Basically same deal as Portland like how Denver close the half...scoring picked up after slow start...

Under 100 -110 Orlando {2units}

Being that I like the under its self explanatory....Howard picked up 3rd foul which scares the life out of me.....but for scoring purposes so many fouls and FTs....

Thats about all it could be worthwhile to hedge some Orl plays since Howard has 3 fouls Or the Seattle total sice you would have a middle but I will gamble....
 
Oh yeah how points got scored in the 3rd Quarter in Portland....here is your hint.....expecting 50 in the third
 
Sorry believe but No...Indy is really the one dog I like...That line is abit fat for me and I dont buy into Balts defense being superior to Indy's O , Indy 's D being inferior or Peytons lack of playoff road success....
 
dude...tonite aint my nite...passed on plays i wanted and ran wit plays i was iffy on


tomorrow cant come soon enuff.....frustrating as hell, capped correctly just played stupidly
 
Retburj said:
dude...tonite aint my nite...passed on plays i wanted and ran wit plays i was iffy on


tomorrow cant come soon enuff.....frustrating as hell, capped correctly just played stupidly

I know how you feel. I am now 0-3 with my 2nd half plays. 2-0 with my leans that I didnt play. THrow on top of that my 0-2 with the early games, and it wasn't a good night for me. THrow in the higher juice and ugh...

Man, fuck you pinny.
 
I don't know what happened to Utah at halftime, but their FT shooting has been atrocious. They could be walking away with this one handedly and instead are going to be in a nail biter in the last 30 seconds. I have to stop posting in your threads nut, I think every play I have discussed in here has lost lol

OT. . . . unbelievable

One last thought before I head to bed, I do not want to hear that AK is a defensive power, he has been lit up like a Xmas tree by McGrady and now Ray Allen for 50+
 
Retburj ..

I say this not to sound arrogant or high & mighty but I feel most of my losses are due to bad decisions ...naturally not all....but a high majority...

Playing something I feel is marginal for more units then I should...or the Sixers total tonite throwing just 1 unit on and having the game pegged ...Then I do wise things liek such patience and wait till halftime with Portland cause I fear a low start....I agree with Shakes the whole Pinny situation does really change one mindset...

This will sound silly but get a good nites sleep and UNDERcap tmrw if there is such a thing.....Dont look at the games till a lil before and start making your decisions....the more you look at the same thing over and over its bound to confuse your mind....

Rarely do I walk away saying what I was thinking as far as the NBA goes..more like what was I thinking with my decisions...

My advice......relax and tell yourself Fuck It...at this point in the season I TRUST me! Okay theres my speech me a xpress syst m have this discussion often....

Thankfully I did very well here pending the late outcomes...
 
affinity said:
I don't know what happened to Utah at halftime, but their FT shooting has been atrocious. They could be walking away with this one handedly and instead are going to be in a nail biter in the last 30 seconds. I have to stop posting in your threads nut, I think every play I have discussed in here has lost lol

Well post on the games you dont play then cause I like your to hear your thoughts but I know what you mean...Hell if you spoke up earlier I would have played SEA 1st H......just when you get your hands on an angle / trend it reverses!

As far as there FT's maybe its more cause of Sea numbers that it seems Utah is performing poorly? They are right at there avg....I watched literally 5 minutes of basketball tonite...I have watched everything from the Forty Year Old Virgin , House of Wax , the old Frankenstein meets the Wolfman and who knows what else...but hardly any baskets.....going overthe NFL playoffs.......OT...!
 
of course...i blow it off and say fuck it, have thick skin, been in this game a long time so nothing fazes me...just gotta roll wit it...

its all good...:drink:
 
nut...liking colts tomorrow to at least cover

ravens are stout but i still think peyton gets his points and if the ravens rely on just their offense to score wit no short fields from turnovers by colts and no raven D scores...i like my chances.
 
Kool...I know sometimes the cloudy decision makings tend to carry over for a few days..

really like the Colts and simply agree with you ...no short fields or Def scores and its an uphill battle for them...BOL!
 
Well lost my parlay and gave some back on the 2nd H plays but not that much....

I can walk away happy going 13-3-1 for nearly 35 units which is Net +25 or +27 after the other losses..
 
nice job...amazing how u can keep all the plays clear

imma nevr home long enuff to post plays nevermind play them

congrats

catch u tomm in the playoffs

:)
 
Thanks Ret.....

Thinking about Saturday:

Curious about the Char total cause neither team defends..hoping 194.5 ish...thats hoping...

Have to lean Wash after a bad loss but more cause they have played SA well recently & Spurs just struggling versus quality team....I owuld lean under here...SA going ole school lately...lots of DEF...

While both teams in Minny are playing well you might haveto side with the home squad , however they played in Mem tonite and NJ didnt...like the under but not at that total...seems way to low....

If NO wasnt trying for 3rd in 4 nites I might have jumped at them but MILW -5 over anyone..???Earl at the point = over but they could be flat...

Memphis +10 looks enticing cause Chi is playing like ass now....okay Retburj...thinking UNDER 222..might be just high enough...Bulls on offense can lite up or fail to make anything so again caution..

Hoping the Suns line drops cause they are playing extremely well. Magic dont shoot FTs and could be thin with Ariza out and some otherquestion marks..tough to not like at least the 1st half over...

Heat and Over 193: These guys are starting to Heat up...and Utah off tough OT loss were a smiami crusied....

The Kings do stink but Houston is in a tough spot....Rockets unders on the road seem sensible but not attractive........

Really have to lean Cle with the rest of the guys but caution playing LeBron in LA...Clipps could be turning it around...

Early ideas....
 
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