Friday Lines/Discussion

[tuck321]

Houston minus .5 first half and houston RL

 

[SportsNut]

SD away

1 vs Wolf (think 2nd batter Gonzalez HRed)
0 vs Kershaw
4 vs DelRosa (6inn 3h 2 r 2bb 6k)
0 vs Zito
8 vs hamels (6inn 8h 5r 3hrs)
2 vs Perez (allowed 1 run in 6inn 3h )

9runs in last 6 away games vs LHSP with 15 runs total in those 6 games almost all in the Philly game.....

also SD 4-13 L17 games with no consecutive wins since that hot start ended with the walkoff in philly ...

 

[tuck321]

Hard to believe you said that about the Reds game SportsNut. Nothing is absolute but Cardinals are clearly correct action.

 

[SportsNut]

:shake:

If you think that game tomorrow in LA will be a toss-up then bet the Giants overnight, as the Dodgers will be favored about 155 or so.

tossup probably not the best phrase , was trying to say better chance IMO that SF can win that game then todays ....probably better to gamble on SFG taking the series then any particular game as its in the +165 range ...get a split and then have Lincecum on Sunday ...

Sanchez was decent in 5 inn last outing vs LAD and this will be the 3rd look vs Stults already for SFG in a few weeks...Jonathan weak track record away and inability to go deep so far is a question mark though ....

not sure what the correct phrase is but better chance in game 2 IMO for SFG and odds arent drastically different ..(40cents or so )

 

[tuck321]

These are simple facts. The Cardinal line up can easily hit him. Do batter vs pitcher or just check history. This is not Pitt waiting for the Brewers. This is a recovering strong team that has won the first game of every road series and is now playing a sick team with no home field advantage. As for Toronto it is more likely that the sun raise tomorrow than that Toronto wins tonight. Barely.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

No LEE for the Chubs tonight.

 

[SportsNut]

Hard to believe you said that about the Reds game SportsNut. Nothing is absolute but Cardinals are clearly correct action.

Why ? Piniero pitches to contact and is hittable facing a guy in Cueto who is the hottest SP in the NL probably ..L3 starts 1 run on a solo HR and big issue was always command just 2 walks in that span..22in 15 hits @chi , vs hou , @pitt ...

put it this way - Looper at worst equal to Joel and better IMO with a better history vs opponent , granted STL lineup better somewhat but not by much then MILW ..rather Owings you get Cueto ......??

seems like a replay of yesterday with more edges for Cincy here ..? just sharing my thought process ...:shake:

 

[hexguru]

though nothing has been said, k-rod for the mets has pitched in 4 straight, so his availibility might be questionable...

 

[tuck321]

Sometimes you have to read what is happening. he got hit by Pitt when they were trying to win with someone they care about. when they did not care because of the Brewers they did not hit him. Lily loses toi the reds. fact of nature. do not have to understand it to see it. houston hitting has been a joke based on many things. He faces a real team today that expects to hit him and wants to hit him. he is 3-7 at home. Its seems like your whole life you intend to ignore home and away records but the world does not.

 

[SportsNut]

These are simple facts. The Cardinal line up can easily hit him. Do batter vs pitcher or just check history. This is not Pitt waiting for the Brewers. This is a recovering strong team that has won the first game of every road series and is now playing a sick team with no home field advantage. As for Toronto it is more likely that the sun raise tomorrow than that Toronto wins tonight. Barely.

check history of a guy who made a suprise jump to the majors at 22 years old and was widly inconsitent as a rookie ? Take those stats literally ? add in Ankiel and Glaus on the DL , what are we weighing a bunch of 1/2s..?schumaker went 3/4 but is career 233 vs Cincy and thus far .190 on the road in 2009 ..no home edge > Reds are 4-2 , 4-2 and 4-5 last year at home vs STL..thast 12-9 L3 seasons in favor of Cincy ...see Reds 4-4 at home vs RHSP losing a game in the 9th and two others by 1 and 2 runs .....

I get the whole STL as a dog angle but Reds IMO win this series....:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

Sometimes you have to read what is happening. he got hit by Pitt when they were trying to win with someone they care about. when they did not care because of the Brewers they did not hit him. Lily loses toi the reds. fact of nature. do not have to understand it to see it. houston hitting has been a joke based on many things. He faces a real team today that expects to hit him and wants to hit him. he is 3-7 at home. Its seems like your whole life you intend to ignore home and away records but the world does not.

The same arguement could be for Piniero though . he faced all lineups who were battling slumps . You have to read what is happening is very true and your counter is you lean on Cueto's 1st start of the season vs Pitt ?? What does any SP 1st start mean? He had command problems at Hosuton and since has turned it around , plain and simple imo. Again all the better reason why Cueto pitching so well and losing both home starts gets a win today. Reality is 95% of MLB pitchers perform at home , w/l records are circumstance out of their control largely...dont know where ignore home / away splits probably recognize them better then anyone (probably a Jonathan Sanchez reference) but you have to know why they occur as much as the fact that they have occurred..

STL good team and tough lineup CLEARLY AGREE but take my lumps with a power pitcher who has seemingly figured it out . Granted you points are all fair especially how STL has hit RHP but just see Cueto as starting to become the stud that opened all eyes in his ML debut in 2008 ...:cheers:

not trying to imply your wrong simply have the opposite view here:shake:


Good Luck Tuck..:shake:

 

[tazz]

good thread

 

[jimbo1227]

I played TB ML and chisox RL. without even coming over here i knew nut would think the red sox line is crazy and sure enough he stops by for a cameo and states that explicitly. ahahah i know there record in fenway is around .286 but big game james can outduel brad bitchass penny tonight. ozzie got a little pist and sat alexei, which is fine by me. believe it or not i think jose gets his act together against a tough opponent, he's virtually playing for his job now. i'm deathly scared of kinsler but noone else really.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

No ATKINS for Colorado tonight.

No MOLINA for Giants tonight.

 

[SportsNut]

Interesting LAD game last night ..6 runs in the 1st cruising along and the flood gates slowly open ..LAD is going to unravel as their schedule gets tougher ...the pen is way , way over its head to date and Mannys absence in the middle is huge esecially when Juan Pierre is getting his atbats ...agree that Zito looks tasty here ..

- Its near impossible to back them( the Yanks) but remember how poor Balt is at home vs LHSP ...11-28 L39 at home after sneaking by yesterday..Yanks are decimated by injuries - 2 catchers , 2 3rd baseman until today , Nady , 3 relievers with Mo hurting , top SP in Wang ....would think -140 range is fair value as Yanks just finding ways to lose not laying that terribly but best thing for teams on losing streaks is head home or hit the road IMO ..last year when AROD returned at home vs Balt the Yanks were crushed behind Moose ...1st inn errors did them in ....side note funny that the best NYY FA signing has been Johnny Damon the one that no one really wanted to happen here in the NY media because he was on decline ....anyway MO is out but CC can go the distance and Joba headed to the pen at some point IMO as Wang looks to be getting stronger and back in a month or so ..

- always tough to ride the same SP that was victorious in a H2H battle 1 turn before . CLE is in shambles but still would look at LEE after all DET was nearly nohit yesterday is there a better indicator of a struggling lineup?? Same goes for the total esecially with leaky pens but more importantly Verlander has been AWFUL at the JAKE ...Tribe/ Over imo

- of course if you look at stats alone the TB line makes no sense but you have to believe they are begging you to take BOSTON here . Who isnt aware of Shields history in Fenway ? Isnt Boston one of the hottest teams in the majors , off a 12 run inning ? TB poor history at Fenway ..? just seems like there was no reason to make Boston a homepup here except to get RS action ....

- really dont care who is in the REDS lineup because Cueto is a power pitcher who is dealing ....Reds ML or pass IMO ...

- David Bush has an awful success rate vs the Cubs but not a bad track record . Dude is nails at home but allows alot of untimely HRs...Randy Wells ? MILW on fire ? Have to think MILW ML especially 1st 5 ML as Bush can have issues in the 6th and 7th

- Really dont think Gaudin is a bad SP at all and has held his own but Wandy has been solid and the SD bats have disappeared vs LH of late continually scoring but 1 run ..Houston ML or pass

-past history of tons of OVERS bewteen SEA and Minny ...plain and simple you have to love BAker here vs a struggling SEA lineup . dude had a nohitter and Gardenhire left him out to dry last start . Mr . J for SEA has been inconsistent thrwoing a gem at CWS who is also not hitting and doesnt have many tough LHs ...SEA bailed him out last start and Twins fucked us up last start , do the tides turn ??

-backed Harrison on Sunday but he got out of every jam (thankfully) ..Contreras has been victim of the BIG inning so far if he can avoid it he should get the win IMO ...CWS ML or pass

- Zona fired the manager an old rallying angle in sports , Petit has turned in some decent 5 inn starts to date , Martis off a CG a huge outing for him and has been 2 different SP home and away like most youngsters ....key with Martis and I will say it everytime because it was even NOTICEABLE in the minors = he struggles badly vs LHB but is literally DEATH on RH check the career splits

-Oak has my interest some because Outman was solid on Sunday and has potential and at some point Jays will slow down ...(thinking this series for starters)

-Palmer was damn impressive IMO vs NYY and really since his ML debut has held his own . Meche has the back issue and was bailed out at Minny last outing ....think LAA takes the series despite the pitching matchups which makes game 1 huge with Grienke dealing tmrw !!! LAA ML

- as I said SFG because Zito was solid after the 1st inn last time @ LAD and thats been LAs calling card - huge 1st inn ...avoid it and you have a chance ....

:cheers:GL

One thing is quite certain and that is Justin Verlander is BACK . Had that game wrong except the fact that I said DET wouldnt hit . Very impressive outing in a place that he has been awful in ....learned he has the reputation of an asshole and know it all , who is not well liked in the DET clubhouse ...

Harrison also impressed me and Contreras officially looks bleak...

CC and Arod did EXACTLY what was needed.. Cant remember when the Yanks had an early lead , a 1st inn lead , etc ....

Thought the RSox line was funny and Shields and TB was good through 5.5 innings but he went to crap into the 6th...

Baker and the Over was pretty easy which made the Twinkie RL very enticing ..

interesting night but only a few suprises sprinkled in ..

Matt Palmer as well opening eyes...

:cheers: