Friday Lines/Discussion

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vegaskyle said:
thinking the same ... dont know if i like the late game followed by travel though...that would be my concern... that and the nats have just 20 ab against Petit.
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agree looking at the +1.5 but this win against the dodgers tonight should also boost their confidence
 
with the way phillies are hitting lefties, is tt over worth a look? and possibly game total over worth alook? hamels isn't straight just yet, and the phillie bats will awaken this weekend...also the braves lineup is getting healthier like mentioned above
 
tuck321 said:
Arizona screwed up today. I think over last year and this year coming home they are 13-1 in the first home game. Usually Dan Haren pitched but they used him to lose in Padres. Still it is a strong pattern and will keep me off the game.
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i'm not sure if petit is worth that price @ 1.70, that's pretty steep for a 4/5 guy @ home
 
just locked 3 plays in

Cubs Over 9.5 @ 2.00
Boston ML @ 1.95
M's/Twins Over 9 @ 1.87

all for a unit
 
Its difficult to put a fair price on that game. Petit last 10 at home is 4-6 but 5 of his starts were solid and one was OK. Sharon has never won on the road and Washington is 3 of 11 on the road. Like situations I can put a closer number to.
 
GameHunter said:
Pitcher A has thrown 21 1/3 innings his L3 and allowed 20 hits and 16 runs.

Pitcher B has thrown 19 hit innings his L3 and allowed 20 hits and 12 runs.

Pitcher A's team has lost 5 straight and is 7-8 on the road.

Pitcher B's tean has won 3 of 4 and is 9-8 at home.

Is it human that Pitcher A and his team are laying -154 against Team B?
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Clearly it was sarcasm, I am sorry it didn't go through.
I wouldn't bet the Yankees if I had free money to waste right now.

However, since I respect your posts and you clearly are one of the most astute handicappers, I want to ask you a question, what do you think would be a good price here? Considering that a good price is made in order to attract the same amount of action from both sides I say that this is right on the spot because if you make the Yankees -140 or less you already know that no matter what their current form is, no matter what injuries they are facing the general public is going to pound them putting the bookies at risk if the Yankees win.
Sabathia dropped 30 cents since opening day and the price is absolutely right on this one if you ask me because it will most likely attract just a little more money on the Yankees (I'd say about 60%) because most people that wager are not as astute as us.

Anyway, best of luck to you.

:shake:
 
Hands up who knew Toronto's Richmond fella had a New Zealander father? Think I found my 2ndary rooting interest beyond the Red Sox.
 
Toronto's 1st games of road series this season have totaled 20, 14, 14, 8 & 14 runs.

Toronto off being held to 2 runs or less this season has posted 6, 12, 4, 4 & 8 run team totals their next games.

Oakland is 0-5 SU their last 5 games not started by Cahill.
 
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lucash said:
Clearly it was sarcasm, I am sorry it didn't go through.
I wouldn't bet the Yankees if I had free money to waste right now.

However, since I respect your posts and you clearly are one of the most astute handicappers, I want to ask you a question, what do you think would be a good price here? Considering that a good price is made in order to attract the same amount of action from both sides I say that this is right on the spot because if you make the Yankees -140 or less you already know that no matter what their current form is, no matter what injuries they are facing the general public is going to pound them putting the bookies at risk if the Yankees win.
Sabathia dropped 30 cents since opening day and the price is absolutely right on this one if you ask me because it will most likely attract just a little more money on the Yankees (I'd say about 60%) because most people that wager are not as astute as us.

Anyway, best of luck to you.

:shake:
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I apologize if my post came across as sarcastic. That wasn't my intent at all. I was trying to make the point that if one objectively looked at the stats for this game without worrying about the marketing value of the New York Yankees or CC the Cy Young Award winner, it would be even more apparent that the line is super inflated....one of your statements above is kind of the center of my entire philosophy of handicapping...."a good price [for a bookmaker] is made in order to attract the same amount of action from both sides," therefore books have a different strategy than we should have as sophisticated everyday bettors....our philosophy should be to dissect each game to uncover the gems where books know that the public will overbet one side because of public perceptions, yet we as sophisticated handicappers can seize on such opportunities by finding the reasons why we like a side that the general public might not see thereby giving us value.

As such, I think there are two different questions to be answered when you ask what would be a good price here. I think a good price for books to get two way action is around what you said: Yanks -140. As for me the handicapper, I still think there would be value in the O's even at +140, so I make the line Yanks -125 to -130.

One factor I didn't harp upon in my earlier post is that with ARod back and in light of the Manny story, it will be an absolute media frenzy for tonight's game adding even more pressure to the situation and I don't imagine ARod is Arod yet.

Good luck.:shake:
 
GameHunter said:
I apologize if my post came across as sarcastic. That wasn't my intent at all. I was trying to make the point that if one objectively looked at the stats for this game without worrying about the marketing value of the New York Yankees or CC the Cy Young Award winner, it would be even more apparent that the line is super inflated....one of your statements above is kind of the center of my entire philosophy of handicapping...."a good price [for a bookmaker] is made in order to attract the same amount of action from both sides," therefore books have a different strategy than we should have as sophisticated everyday bettors....our philosophy should be to dissect each game to uncover the gems where books know that the public will overbet one side because of public perceptions, yet we as sophisticated handicappers can seize on such opportunities by finding the reasons why we like a side that the general public might not see thereby giving us value.

As such, I think there are two different questions to be answered when you ask what would be a good price here. I think a good price for books to get two way action is around what you said: Yanks -140. As for me the handicapper, I still think there would be value in the O's even at +140, so I make the line Yanks -125 to -130.

One factor I didn't harp upon in my earlier post is that with ARod back and in light of the Manny story, it will be an absolute media frenzy for tonight's game adding even more pressure to the situation and I don't imagine ARod is Arod yet.

Good luck.:shake:
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No worries mate, I totally understand your points.
I personally wasn't trying to sound rude either, I really respect all your insight on the web, but it's just that since the season started we are all used to see Sabathia at ridiculous odds so as soon as they came out for tonight I thought "wow, finally CC at a almost human price!" but intended as a joke and not as an actual value statement.

Again, betting the Yankees at these odds and in this situation is like committing suicide. I would never touch them, especially considering how they just suck on series openers (on away openers last year they were 12-14 and this year they are 1-4!) but I was impressed in finally seeing CC drop 30 cents against a team that beat him already!

:tiphat:
 
Since people are asking ?Jose Molina (left quad) appears headed for the DL based on what Joe Girardi said tonight.Unless Brian Cashman can make an overnight trade, Kevin Cash and Chris Stewart are the catchers at Triple-A Scranton. I would think one of them will be summoned.A 40-man roster move will have to be made. That could be Angel Berroa.
 
Colorado's sequence of recent team totals (last to latest)

12 - 3 - 7 - 2 - 5 - 0 - 9 - 1 - 11 - 3 - ??

Anyone guessing Friday is an up spot, just maybe?


Florida is 4-13 since starting 11-1, and hasn't won SU in a regulation 9 innings for 8 games (Florida has just 3 regulation innings wins in their last 20 games)
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Colorado's sequence of recent team totals (last to latest)

12 - 3 - 7 - 2 - 5 - 0 - 9 - 1 - 11 - 3 - ??

Anyone guessing Friday is an up spot, just maybe?


Florida is 4-13 since starting 11-1, and hasn't won SU in a regulation 9 innings for 8 games (Florida has just 3 regulation innings wins in their last 20 games)
Click to expand...

In those games that they scored those runs the starting pitchers were
Randy Johnson
Kevin Correia
Matt Cain
Aaron Cook
Chris Young
 
any talk of TB/Boston over?

Shields gets hammered at Fenway, Boston and TB bats are alive right now....Penny is certainly hittable.

Im thinking OVER 9.
 
The Reds were without both Votto and Phillips due to the flu last night...still shocked they were able to put up 6 runs without the 3-4 hitters, esp considering Votto has been their only offense...gives ya an idea why Macha pulled Looper so quickly..he was pissed at him getting lit up by that lineup the Reds threw out there..

Any play involving Cincy tonight definetely would need some assurance one or both of those two are gonna be back...


As for Ceuto's numbers vs STL, he's quite certainily not the same guy...his control doesn't seem to be an issue any longer and that was his issue last year...apples and oranges...also Piniero's numbers weren't vs much of what the Reds throw out there now sans Phillips and Votto.
 
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Ever read the Fantastic Four BC. There is a character called Ben Grimm AKA The Thing. He has a line he uses ITS CLOBBERING TIME somehow looking at Colorado that line stands out to me.
 
Here is my final analysis and lines I played at Matchbook:


<table class="forum"><tbody><tr class="odd"><td class="forumpost-post">SAN DIEGO +150 (1.75 UNITS) - Houston is a bad baseball team and despite SD's difficulties against lefties, the price is ridiculous and Gaudin is more than capable. The Pods have had success in limited appearances against Wandy and the Astros are 5-10 at home. Cecil Copper's days may be numbered.


SAN FRANCISCO +188 (1.5 UNITS) - The price is ridiculous. Zito has been solid of late. Without Manny, Dodger hitters are just 56 for 245 (.229) against Zito with just 2 HR's and 15 RBI's. The Dodgers have distractions and their bullpen imploded last night. Yes, Billingsley has been tough against the Giants in two starts this season, but I'd have to think they can figure out a way to get some runs in their 3rd time facing him in a month.

FLORIDA +109 (1.75 UNITS) - Hammel isn't an overpowering strikeout pitcher and isn't a crafty veteran...two things the Fish struggle with. He's allowing 1.72 runners per inning. This park was made for the Fish.

WASHINGTON 1ST 5 INNINGS +119 (1.5 UNITS) - The Nats are hitting the crap out of the ball. Zimmerman and Guzman are hot. Dunn, Dukes, Johnson, Willingham and Kearns are more than capable. Martis has looked outstanding of late. Melvin was fired last night as the Dback skipper and the team is in a bit of disarray. Only concern is energy the Nats expended in confidence building explosion late last night. I will avoid the Nats' pen and stick with the F5.

BOSTON EVEN (2.25 UNITS) - Shields implodes at Fenway. In 4 career starts, he has lasted just 15 2/3 innings and allowed 27 hits and 17 earned runs. Penney's fast ball was popping last out at the Trop. Sox should get healthier tonight and I expect to see some returning to the lineup.


BALTIMORE +148 (1.5 UNITS) - Mariano Rivera probably isn't available. CC has thrown 21 1/3 innings his L3 and allowed 20 hits and 16 runs. Guthrie has thrown 19 hit innings his L3 and allowed 20 hits and 12 runs. The Yanks have lost 5 straight and is 7-8 on the road. The O's have won 3 of 4 and is 9-8 at home. Molina will probably miss for the Yanks leaving them with a 3rd string weak hitting catcher from Triple A. ARod is expected back so PT Barnum should make an appearance and put a tent on this circus which will be magnified by Manny being Manny. Huge distractions for the Yanks. How are the Yanks laying this type of number right now the way they are playing?


UNDER DET/CLEVE 1ST 5 INNINGS 4.5 RUNS (+105) (1 UNIT)
UNDER DET/CLEVE 9 RUNS (-115) (1 UNIT) - Was close to playing the Tribe here but will stick with the under. Cliff Lee has been outstanding his L4 tossing 29 innings and allowing 33 hits, 6 earned runs and an 18:5 K:BB ratio. Rematch of game over the weekend. Verlander is inconsistent but when on he is dominant. In his last two, he has thrown 14 innings and allowed just 9 hits and 1 earned run with a 20:3 K:BB ratio.

OVER TEX/WHITE SOX 10.5 (-115) (1.75 UNITS) - Contreras was brought back way too quickly. In 26 innings, he has allowed 34 hits, 25 runs and has a 14:14 K:BB ratio. Texas torched him for 7 runs and 7 hits in 3 1/3 innings last week. No way Harrison stymies the Pale Hose a 2nd time in a row. In 26 2/3 innings this season, he has allowed 51 base runners and has just a 12:12 K:BB ratio.

KANSAS CITY -109 (1.5 UNITS)

TORONTO -104 (1.5 UNITS)

WHITE SOX -109 (1.5 UNITS)

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From the Boston Globe on the Red Sox for tonight...

Injury updates

Email|Link|Comments (1) Posted by Adam Kilgore, Globe Staff May 7, 2009 11:51 PM
One of the hallmarks of the Red Sox 13-3 victory tonight was their resiliency, pounding out 13 and 13 hits despite missing four regular starters. With the Tampa Bay Rays coming into Fenway Park for a three-game series, the Red Sox will likely creep back to full strength Friday.

Manager Terry Francona said Kevin Youkilis will sit out again, because messing an injury to the oblique area is never good. That means Jeff Bailey, who delivered a double and an RBI single, will start again.

David Ortiz's sudden stiff neck shouldn't keep him out again, Francona said, but he couldn't say for sure that Ortiz will play. Expect Jacoby Ellsbury to reutrn as well; Ellsbury hasn't played since hurting his right hamstring while diving for a ball Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.

And those Rays? They've won three in a row and six of their last eight after a dramatic, 8-6 victory over the Yankees on Thursday night that pushed them percentage points ahead of New York in the AL East standings.
 
scarf31 said:
From the Boston Globe on the Red Sox for tonight...

Injury updates

Email|Link|Comments (1) Posted by Adam Kilgore, Globe Staff May 7, 2009 11:51 PM
One of the hallmarks of the Red Sox 13-3 victory tonight was their resiliency, pounding out 13 and 13 hits despite missing four regular starters. With the Tampa Bay Rays coming into Fenway Park for a three-game series, the Red Sox will likely creep back to full strength Friday.

Manager Terry Francona said Kevin Youkilis will sit out again, because messing an injury to the oblique area is never good. That means Jeff Bailey, who delivered a double and an RBI single, will start again.

David Ortiz's sudden stiff neck shouldn't keep him out again, Francona said, but he couldn't say for sure that Ortiz will play. Expect Jacoby Ellsbury to reutrn as well; Ellsbury hasn't played since hurting his right hamstring while diving for a ball Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.

And those Rays? They've won three in a row and six of their last eight after a dramatic, 8-6 victory over the Yankees on Thursday night that pushed them percentage points ahead of New York in the AL East standings.
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
And the news on Mariano could be worse than just missing today.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=640 bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="MARGIN-LEFT: auto; MARGIN-RIGHT: auto" vAlign=top><TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=headline vAlign=top colSpan=3>Mo Rivera experiencing shoulder discomfort

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD bgColor=#1c2841 colSpan=3>Mariano Rivera - R - NYY - May. 8 - 8:56 am et </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top colSpan=3>During Thursday's post-game show on the YES Network, Yankees manager Joe Girardi revealed that Mariano Rivera's surgically repaired shoulder has been bothering him.
The news came minutes after Rivera suffered his first loss of the season, allowing two home runs to the Rays after entering a tie game in the ninth inning. His velocity has taken a noticeable dip and he may need a few days off. Rivera still has a 3.97 ERA and a 17/0 K/BB ratio over 11 1/3 innings this season. May. 8 - 8:56 am et
Source: YES Network
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
One thing you said that you might focus on "Melvin was fired", this is the first game back off a road trip for Arizona and Arizona this year is 1-4 against the Dodgers and 1-9 last 10 against the Dodgers.
 
BTW,

Great to have you over here GH, been following your stuff for awhile....hope your postings become a daily occurrence.:tiphat:
 
05/08 2:41am C Jose Molina Quad injured last game, downgraded to doubtful Friday vs. Baltimore Orioles

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=NHLsubheadingStats style="COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ff5731" noWrap colSpan=18>Jon Niese's 2009 Profile</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=20><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-LEFT: 10px; FONT-SIZE: 10px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" colSpan=20>Perhaps no rookie starter will be under as much pressure this year as Niese, who has been off limits in trade talks with the Mets for a couple of years now. Even though he has just seven Triple-A starts to his credit and he struggled in three major league starts in September, the team thinks he’s ready to take over the fifth spot in the rotation now. Niese works at 89-92 mph with his fastball. His curveball is a standout second pitch, and his changeup is a fair third option. The package should make him a No. 3 starter in time, but his command isn’t good enough to put him at that level yet. He may disappoint this season before establishing himself as a reliable starter in 2010, so don’t go beyond $1-$2.Updated May. 7: Mets recalled LHP Jon Niese from Triple-A Buffalo. Niese will get the nod on Friday against the first place Blue Jays. He was 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA in five starts at Buffalo, so most fantasy leaguers will want to steer clear. He may be worth placing on a watch list in NL-only leagues.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
hard to go against toronto off a loss and against a very hittable lefty. like them on ml and tt even more.

i wouldn't touch the yanks at this point. they are a mess and with a roid back, it will be a circus. im not sold on guthrie at all and ny needed to get on the road, but still a mess.

like cincy and a low score pending umps

texas and texas tt's have been money for me. i love the tt tonite against jose. haven't checked weather there yet and waiting umps.
 
oh yeah, even without youk, tuff to pass on sox at near even money. team total alao looks good.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Colorado's sequence of recent team totals (last to latest)

12 - 3 - 7 - 2 - 5 - 0 - 9 - 1 - 11 - 3 - ??

Anyone guessing Friday is an up spot, just maybe?


Florida is 4-13 since starting 11-1, and hasn't won SU in a regulation 9 innings for 8 games (Florida has just 3 regulation innings wins in their last 20 games)
Click to expand...

And in their last 20 games, NONE of the Fla starting pitchers have gotten a win!!!:hang:i
 
Randy Wells will be promoted from Triple-A Iowa to start in Carlos Zambrano's place Friday against the Brewers.

Wells has a 2.77 ERA at Triple-A Iowa, but he has limited experience at the major league level and should probably stay on most waiver wires. Zambrano was placed on the disabled list Monday and is expected to miss up to three weeks. Wells could get more than one start if his 2009 debut goes off without a hitch.
Source: Arlington Daily Herald

2009 STATS WITH AAA IOWA
W L ERA G GS CG IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP
3 0 2.77 5 5 0 26 19 8 8 1 7 21 1.00
 
really great thread today. Hands down Boston at Even money is my favorite play of the day. Boston 11-3 at home, Shields struggle on the road and in Fenway, Penny pitching pretty decent and has consistently been hitting 95-96 on the radar, a bullpen advantage, the way Tampa literally stole the last victory, and of course, even money on the home team. I will take having Ellsbury and Papi back. Next favorite bet on the board is Toronto bouncing back tonight. Richmond seems to really be in a groove lately. Oakland had a rare eruption yesterday, 7 of which came on 2 HRs, but expecting Richmond to stay consistent with his 7ip-2er type performance.
 
smo1a said:
like cincy and a low score pending umps
Click to expand...


Don't get too excited when you see Johnny Cueto's microscopic ERA; the 17th-ranked offense of the Cubs is the best lineup he's faced all season. That will change in a hurry when he faces the Cardinals, whose .860 OPS against right-handers is 24 points better than the second-place Red Sox. It will be a strong test to see how legitimate Cueto's breakout season really is. …
 
aplous said:
Don't get too excited when you see Johnny Cueto's microscopic ERA; the 17th-ranked offense of the Cubs is the best lineup he's faced all season. That will change in a hurry when he faces the Cardinals, whose .860 OPS against right-handers is 24 points better than the second-place Red Sox. It will be a strong test to see how legitimate Cueto's breakout season really is. …
Click to expand...

In terms of overall stuff, Cueto is hands down the best reds pitcher. Whether or not he can keep his control consistently is the real question with him. Volquez has the fastball and the ridiculous changup but cueto's stuff is just nasty when he is on. His past couple starts have been impressive but you are right, we will see if cueto really has turned the corner tonight
 
smo1a said:
hard to go against toronto off a loss and against a very hittable lefty. like them on ml and tt even more.

i wouldn't touch the yanks at this point. they are a mess and with a roid back, it will be a circus. im not sold on guthrie at all and ny needed to get on the road, but still a mess.

like cincy and a low score pending umps

texas and texas tt's have been money for me. i love the tt tonite against jose. haven't checked weather there yet and waiting umps.
Click to expand...

Double check the Reds' flu epidemic....Votto and Philipps missed yesterday and several other players were reported with symptoms. ALlso, the Cards have roughed up Cueto in the past...just food for thought
 
GameHunter said:
Double check the Reds' flu epidemic....Votto and Philipps missed yesterday and several other players were reported with symptoms. ALlso, the Cards have roughed up Cueto in the past...just food for thought
Click to expand...

This is all thats come out so far...

Dusty Baker said they won't know until this afternoon if Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips will be able to play.
"We hope so," Baker said. "I usually have a lineup made out. But I'm going to wait until they come in." >.
From John Fay.
 
tuck321 said:
Played the Cardinals ml
Click to expand...

Good luck tuck

its a no play for me on the reddies tonight... Id lean under and want to see how cueto continues his run before betting against him.

Plus im concerned with the possible rain/storms there tonight.. Id hate to see the game be interuppted for a long delay and then it go to both bullpens earlier than it should tonight..

Rain looks like its about an hour or so away right now.. forecast i took from reds site below..

"Late Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. High near 74. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible."
 
Have gotten off Frisco for a loss of 6 cents as the line came down. Its a problem. There are very good arguments for Frisco but the theme is bad. I am supposed to be betting on teams after great losses not against them. Dodgers have just lost their best player and their home streak. There should be a bounce back as the staff ace shows up for the team and they compose themselves. Have to stay in theme.
 
thanks for additional info on cincy. still kinda like under there but likely will pass.
 
Interesting LAD game last night ..6 runs in the 1st cruising along and the flood gates slowly open ..LAD is going to unravel as their schedule gets tougher ...the pen is way , way over its head to date and Mannys absence in the middle is huge esecially when Juan Pierre is getting his atbats ...agree that Zito looks tasty here ..

- Its near impossible to back them( the Yanks) but remember how poor Balt is at home vs LHSP ...11-28 L39 at home after sneaking by yesterday..Yanks are decimated by injuries - 2 catchers , 2 3rd baseman until today , Nady , 3 relievers with Mo hurting , top SP in Wang ....would think -140 range is fair value as Yanks just finding ways to lose not laying that terribly but best thing for teams on losing streaks is head home or hit the road IMO ..last year when AROD returned at home vs Balt the Yanks were crushed behind Moose ...1st inn errors did them in ....side note funny that the best NYY FA signing has been Johnny Damon the one that no one really wanted to happen here in the NY media because he was on decline ....anyway MO is out but CC can go the distance and Joba headed to the pen at some point IMO as Wang looks to be getting stronger and back in a month or so ..

- always tough to ride the same SP that was victorious in a H2H battle 1 turn before . CLE is in shambles but still would look at LEE after all DET was nearly nohit yesterday is there a better indicator of a struggling lineup?? Same goes for the total esecially with leaky pens but more importantly Verlander has been AWFUL at the JAKE ...Tribe/ Over imo

- of course if you look at stats alone the TB line makes no sense but you have to believe they are begging you to take BOSTON here . Who isnt aware of Shields history in Fenway ? Isnt Boston one of the hottest teams in the majors , off a 12 run inning ? TB poor history at Fenway ..? just seems like there was no reason to make Boston a homepup here except to get RS action ....

- really dont care who is in the REDS lineup because Cueto is a power pitcher who is dealing ....Reds ML or pass IMO ...

- David Bush has an awful success rate vs the Cubs but not a bad track record . Dude is nails at home but allows alot of untimely HRs...Randy Wells ? MILW on fire ? Have to think MILW ML especially 1st 5 ML as Bush can have issues in the 6th and 7th

- Really dont think Gaudin is a bad SP at all and has held his own but Wandy has been solid and the SD bats have disappeared vs LH of late continually scoring but 1 run ..Houston ML or pass

-past history of tons of OVERS bewteen SEA and Minny ...plain and simple you have to love BAker here vs a struggling SEA lineup . dude had a nohitter and Gardenhire left him out to dry last start . Mr . J for SEA has been inconsistent thrwoing a gem at CWS who is also not hitting and doesnt have many tough LHs ...SEA bailed him out last start and Twins fucked us up last start , do the tides turn ??

-backed Harrison on Sunday but he got out of every jam (thankfully) ..Contreras has been victim of the BIG inning so far if he can avoid it he should get the win IMO ...CWS ML or pass

- Zona fired the manager an old rallying angle in sports , Petit has turned in some decent 5 inn starts to date , Martis off a CG a huge outing for him and has been 2 different SP home and away like most youngsters ....key with Martis and I will say it everytime because it was even NOTICEABLE in the minors = he struggles badly vs LHB but is literally DEATH on RH check the career splits

-Oak has my interest some because Outman was solid on Sunday and has potential and at some point Jays will slow down ...(thinking this series for starters)

-Palmer was damn impressive IMO vs NYY and really since his ML debut has held his own . Meche has the back issue and was bailed out at Minny last outing ....think LAA takes the series despite the pitching matchups which makes game 1 huge with Grienke dealing tmrw !!! LAA ML

- as I said SFG because Zito was solid after the 1st inn last time @ LAD and thats been LAs calling card - huge 1st inn ...avoid it and you have a chance ....

:cheers:GL


 
tuck321 said:
Have gotten off Frisco for a loss of 6 cents as the line came down. Its a problem. There are very good arguments for Frisco but the theme is bad. I am supposed to be betting on teams after great losses not against them. Dodgers have just lost their best player and their home streak. There should be a bounce back as the staff ace shows up for the team and they compose themselves. Have to stay in theme.
Click to expand...

good point actually ...Lincecum on Sunday vs Weaver big edge for SFG and tmrw probably a toss up with Sanchez vs Stults and you get the -150 to -160 range . Billingsley is the ace clearly and chances are he can do enough to get them a win more so then tmrw 's matchup...pen could be thin by sunday as Stults has been a 5 inn guy and weaver is good for about 5 at this point .....just not worth taking LAD at -200 though IMO but maybe not enough value in SF either other then to just gamble .....:cheers:
 
If you think that game tomorrow in LA will be a toss-up then bet the Giants overnight, as the Dodgers will be favored about 155 or so.
 
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