Friday Discussion Thread

LHP Brady Basso, AAA player of the month against the White Sox tonight. Pitched 6 innings, struck out 6 vs Tigers Sep 7.

o15.5 outs -115 @ MGM
6+ Ks +190 @ FD
or 5+ Ks -125 @FD

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Holy fuck I slept till like 11 and still trying to figure out wtf happened or where all my shit is!! Shit it almost freaking 1!! Last thing I remember was hitting cook prop last night I didn’t even know the Seattle game actually went over or got Montas outs til few minutes ago. Guess it beats the hell than waking up to losers! Lol
 
correct. nothing out on him

I don’t think they have made an out total for him since around the all star break. Man I’m just getting some coffee in me, did little wake and bake, trying to get the juices flowing I ain’t slept that hard or long in like a year, prob since we found out Theresa had cancer. I been up 2 hours and just starting to get my barrings! Lol. Yoi gonna have to throw some games out, help me get jump started here. I can’t believe it Friday, it Friday right? I planned on doing ncaa football last night next thing I know it 11am! lol. Theresa had written little notes next to my head so had to make sure she was alright. I think she finally not feeling the effects that med they tried on her cause she was actually making calls and scheduling stuff so that a freaking relief! Now just gotta get my capping groove on cause I gotta change damn brakes in this car I bought, I knew when I gif it but now the time here! I hate doing brakes but not as much I hate wasting the money for someone else can do when I can do it! Shit just sucks and you always need a tool you ain’t got or something is goofy bout them and makes it take twice as long! Lol. Anyways I’m getting baseball done and now that I’ve had more than enough sleep I’ll do the ncaa card in then I guess change them, much rather wait til Sunday and miss nfl but they pretty bad metal on metal shit! Lol
 
Tigers still don’t have a listed pitcher? It killing me they winning all these games playing a bunch of openers, I hate openers how am I suppose to cap pitchers when I dunno who the fuck pitching!!???
 
What a pitching matchup in washigton featuring 2 my fav guys, Cabrera been on a roll lately and ya’ll know I’m big fan of Herz!!
 
I see they at least brought Herz k number down to a juiced 5.5, I saw 6.4 at one point. Fish don’t hit lhp but I don’t think they strike out a lot against them either can I get confirmation on that @peelpub94 or anyone else?
 
Where do you post your ncaa and nfl?

NFL I mostly post in the prop thread @ScopeY runs, it’s a great thread he puts a lot of time in it. So far ncaa been all over the place cause I been so short on time but @He Hate Me starts a ncaa prop thread I usually post in and I’ll be posting more in discussion thread and they have a thread for picking dogs I’m almost always in. Lot of good ncaa threads to check out
 
I see they at least brought Herz k number down to a juiced 5.5, I saw 6.4 at one point. Fish don’t hit lhp but I don’t think they strike out a lot against them either can I get confirmation on that @peelpub94 or anyone else?
Herz struck out 13 in 6IP in June vs MIA.

MIA L10 vs LHP avg 5.6 strike outs.
1726256392427.png
 
12 out of last 15 LHP have gone 16 outs or more vs MIA.

Herz been struggling with control a bit, jacking up pitch count, but I think 16 outs are within reach vs this joke line up.
 
View attachment 88292
MIA projected lineups K rate vs LHP

Herz price coming down also. Was just making post bout this game but I don’t want anyone rushing to bet it cause it seems the odds are in our favor. Look at what the last 2 Nats lefties (gore and Corbin did to fish!). Im
Huge Cabrera fan also but Nats a high contact team, my concern with him he was on extra rest when he blanked Phillies and he seems better on extra compared to the 4 he on tonight so most likely we see a less efficient Cabrera, still don’t think that means runs for Nats but also think he only pitches 4-5 innings. Considering a play on the 1st 3 innings under 1.5 cause it nice plus money. Then come behind with a u4.5 Ff but that -135 and if either pitcher gets in trouble it most likely be 4rh or 5th. A play on Nats in the early going might be in order as a play on Herz k’s if everyone waits and lets it get bet down a little more! Good seeing ya here brotha, lots of mlb money still to be made!
 
12 out of last 15 LHP have gone 16 outs or more vs MIA.

Herz been struggling with control a bit, jacking up pitch count, but I think 16 outs are within reach vs this joke line up.

He has let his counts get a bit up, he was throwing no hitter vs pirates but was at 87 pitches after 5! His only bad game recently been vs cubs who seem to be hitting everything right now. You know I’m a fan I’m looking at creative ways to try and get on him. Especially cause even tho I love cebrera im afraid this could be a spot his efficiency vanishes again, it like a magic trick for him! Dude looks like an ace one minute then the next it like he doesn’t grasp where the ball supposed to be going! Lol. He has extra rest before Philly and now he back on 4, don’t think he gets blasted but I could see nats getting an earlier run and be leading after 3 or 4. Don’t trust Cabrera to go past 5 here and don’t like his k’s which odd for me!
 
No capping I just saw mine but that a lot of plus for the Mets isn’t it? Nola hasn’t exactly been in peak form has he?
 
No capping I just saw mine but that a lot of plus for the Mets isn’t it? Nola hasn’t exactly been in peak form has he?

Both pitchers have fared pretty well vs these lineups, not much in way of super hard exit velo’s and both have fanned just bout as many hits they have given up. Feels like a 2-2 game in the 6th
 
Im not real sold Eflin is going 6+ innings in Detroit, I hate he on 5 days rest which easily his best but I like all the lefties tigers throwing at him in the lineup. He gonna have to work to get these guys out imo. Until last start he been a machine since coming to balry going 6+ in every start, he always been a QS machine and he could get to 6 tonight but man that plus money on the under I think damn near worth a try, or we could go the safer route, tigers to score 1.5 thru 5 is only -125 and I see almost no chance they can’t muster 2 runs here.
 
I have no real thoughts on kc/pitt. I havnt been much into capping Ortiz all year, looks like he throws quite the mix but doesn’t miss a lot of bats. Almost feel like this price why not just play kc? They tend to smash the bad teams and after losing 2 o3 to yanks they could prob use some wins this series, not real sure why they wouldn’t at least take from pirates and price kinda right just to play them and chase if need be!
 
LHP Brady Basso, AAA player of the month against the White Sox tonight. Pitched 6 innings, struck out 6 vs Tigers Sep 7.

o15.5 outs -115 @ MGM
6+ Ks +190 @ FD
or 5+ Ks -125 @FD

View attachment 88286

I love that he maintain a fairly low walk rate (for this day and age) in minors and he has posted strong swinging strike numbers throughout. That def bodes well to go deeper if not walking guys and throwing strikes! Seems to rate really well controlling his fastball, he does throw a lot of them which has me kinda debating between the k’s and out total. I can get hit ov 15.5 outs for -110!
 
Gomber, o3.5 Ks +100 @ DK. Cubs went over 3.5Ks 9 of L10 vs LHP on the road.

View attachment 88287

Gomber can drive me nuts, he has had times he pitch really well at Coors then others not so much. He only has like 29ks in 56 innings there this year which worries me, along w cubs just running pitchers from games hitting everything, I dunno if I wanna be against that offense no going to Coors? Totally understand why ya like the 3.5 just has me a little shook and gomber career vs scrubbies not stellar either, think less than 2-1 k/bb and ops around 1,000!
 
Assad didn’t really enjoy his one time pitching at Coors either. Kinda wanna be looking at over in some fashion there
 
They have Gomber at freaking 17.5 outs, I can all but promise you get 4 k’s he goes that deep but not sure I’m buying that?!
 
God dammit I tried to get back home and post these but like 5 the games started! My bad I thought I would only miss 1 start at most
 
Almost all the things I tried w k’s or 1st 3 inning lines or different stuff has already jumped off.

Herz price did go back up to 6.5 k’s, played smaller at +135, might still be able to get him.

Have tigers 1st 3 ml and Ff tt ov 1.5

Phi/mets ff u4.5 but also both teams to have 2+ thru 7 innings.
 
trying to think what left that hasn’t started.

Cubs Ff tt ov 2.5 and gm ov 5.5
Cubs/Rox both have 2+ after 5 inn

Bregman ov 1.5 h,r,rbi

Angles pitcher over 1.5 walks

Cease ov 6.5 k’s
 
Looks like I was spot on with Cabrera struggling with efficiency. Hopefully he don’t give up more than 1. I have the 1st 3 u1.5 and u2.5 and then Mia to not score. Don’t think I took nats can’t remember. lol
 
2 on and 2 out in 1st. ground ball to 1st baseman flips to caberra for easy out and inn over. nope caberra dropped the ball and 2 scored
 
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