Friday CFB

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
CFB 2008 record update pending...

_________________________________________________

I'll get my record updated this weekend. My opening weekend was pretty brutal so its not very good. Hit Vandy 2H last night so starting the week off right at least.. Think I am 4-7 in CFB but I'll dig it up.

Ball St -6.5, -110, 4 units WIN

Strange line movement on this one. Hard to figure why but I liked Ball St at 7 so I'll roll with the 6.5.

Suspect since this is the only game tonight this will be written up often so I'll be brief.

My thoughts.

  • Ball St is absolutely loaded on offense. All 5 lineman back, NFL caliber QB Davies and receivers galore especially TE Hill who is rated as one of the best TEs in the country. Think they will score two times to Navy's one throughout.. High scoring affair expected but staying away from total. (rule changes could eliminate 1 possession per side in a game like this)
  • Navy returns 8 starters on defense which is good because they sucked last year and should suck again this year.
  • Ball St returns most of their defense but again they gave it up vs the run so expect Navy to get theirs.
  • Navy QB situation is interesting as the dude with the long name is out and replaced by Bryant who is a significant downgrade esp. as a runner... Expect Ball State to load the box as is the norm with Navy opponents... They say Bryant is a better thrower than long name.. We'll find out tonight.
  • Navy has question marks and inexperience in the O-line.. Key capping point
Home team, far superior offense, vs replacement QB with inexperienced O-line... Navy won't be able to keep up IMO... Probably a public bet, but why the line movement that suggests otherwise?

Thats my play.. Won't have Saturday's card up until Saturday morning or very late tonight.. GL all.. Haven't hit my goove yet in CFB 2008 but hope to get it this weekend..:cheers:
 
Last edited:
looks like it is heading back the other way now.. -7..

They are moving on and off a key number. Dangerous for the books if this game lands on 7 which is very possible.. little chance it will go to 7.5 but if it does I may middle a couple units..
 
teedub - While I agree Ball State is explosive on offense, what about their defense?

Last year, Navy outgained the Cardinals 585 to 539 in total yards. In essence, the Midshipmen lost the game (34-31) because they coughed the ball up twice, whereas Ball State only turned it over once.

I guess all I'm trying to say is, this game could very well come down to the wire. And it's tough for me to lay a TD or more against a team that can control the clock with a dominant running game.

GL this week.
 
Aztec4Life said:
teedub - While I agree Ball State is explosive on offense, what about their defense?

Last year, Navy outgained the Cardinals 585 to 539 in total yards. In essence, the Midshipmen lost the game (34-31) because they coughed the ball up twice, whereas Ball State only turned it over once.

I guess all I'm trying to say is, this game could very well come down to the wire. And it's tough for me to lay a TD or more against a team that can control the clock with a dominant running game.

GL this week.
Click to expand...

Navy will get yards but not in the chunks they got last year IMO.. Here's my thing.. The triple option is just that- three options on every play.. QB play is the key IMO.. If the QB is a serious threat everything else works.. Last year the Navy FB ran for more than 200 yards. People say who cares if the new QB (Bryant) isn't as skilled as Kaipo when the fullbacks can run for 200+... The difference is Bryant is much less of a threat, he is OK but not near as slick as Kaipo.. Without the big threat of Kaipo, all the other options are reduced and more manageable..

So I think Navy will have some success, no doubt but I know for a fact that Ball State will have a very easy time with the Navy defense. The QB, TE and probably one of the receivers (LOve) will all be playing on Sunday in the future. 11 returning starters, all 5 o-linemen..

I see a big edge in the matchups... Nice play I think but we shall see..

GL with your weekend bro:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
Navy will get yards but not in the chunks they got last year IMO.. Here's my thing.. The triple option is just that- three options on every play.. QB play is the key IMO.. If the QB is a serious threat everything else works.. Last year the Navy FB ran for more than 200 yards. People say who cares if the new QB (Bryant) isn't as skilled as Kaipo when the fullbacks can run for 200+... The difference is Bryant is much less of a threat, he is OK but not near as slick as Kaipo.. Without the big threat of Kaipo, all the other options are reduced and more manageable..

So I think Navy will have some success, no doubt but I know for a fact that Ball State will have a very easy time with the Navy defense. The QB, TE and probably one of the receivers (LOve) will all be playing on Sunday in the future. 11 returning starters, all 5 o-linemen..

I see a big edge in the matchups... Nice play I think but we shall see..

GL with your weekend bro:cheers:
Click to expand...

I thought Kaipo was probable? He's listed as Questionable or Probable from what I've seen.

:shake:
 
Aztec4Life said:
I thought Kaipo was probable? He's listed as Questionable or Probable from what I've seen.

:shake:
Click to expand...

Everything I have seen says Kaipo is out.. If he plays he will be limited but would be shocked if he does.. Torn Hammy
 
tee*dub said:
Navy will get yards but not in the chunks they got last year IMO.. Here's my thing.. The triple option is just that- three options on every play.. QB play is the key IMO.. If the QB is a serious threat everything else works.. Last year the Navy FB ran for more than 200 yards. People say who cares if the new QB (Bryant) isn't as skilled as Kaipo when the fullbacks can run for 200+... The difference is Bryant is much less of a threat, he is OK but not near as slick as Kaipo.. Without the big threat of Kaipo, all the other options are reduced and more manageable..

So I think Navy will have some success, no doubt but I know for a fact that Ball State will have a very easy time with the Navy defense. The QB, TE and probably one of the receivers (LOve) will all be playing on Sunday in the future. 11 returning starters, all 5 o-linemen..

I see a big edge in the matchups... Nice play I think but we shall see..

GL with your weekend bro:cheers:
Click to expand...


Actually why I like the UNDER here . Also the rules change should make an impact in a game like this IMO.

Not sure what side to take been doing better on totals this week then sides ....I agree though hard to trust the Navy QB here if he is a downgrade as a runner ...

GL...
 
tee*dub said:
Everything I have seen says Kaipo is out.. If he plays he will be limited but would be shocked if he does.. Torn Hammy
Click to expand...

Agree with Tee . From what I read it said it would be 4-6 weeks and this is now 3 weeks . All but ruled out from what I read but I guess you never know what they will do......
Roster Report: QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada was back at practice but will rest his injured hamstring again this week. He said he had a partial tear and was told 4-6 weeks when he went down. “It’s been three weeks, so I hope I can play in another week or two,” he said as the week of practice began.:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Actually why I like the UNDER here . Also the rules change should make an impact in a game like this IMO.

...
Click to expand...

Ya ran through last years game and best I could tell is the rule change would eliminate almost one possession per team.. Hard to figure it exactly but Navy runs out of bounds a lot when they run the option into the short side of the field.
 
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