French Open

@

@TheHorzy

Pretty much a regular
5.00/2.00 Federer to win Q4
0.28/0.25 Gulbis vs Monfils o.40.5
​0.30/0.25 Hajek vs Querrey o38.5
0.30/0.25 Davydenko vs Istomin o37.5
1.15/1 Raonic vs Anderson o42
3/3.3 Svetlana to beat Kerber
2/2.10 Kerber to beat Kuznetsova (live) *4-3 Kerber in the 2nd set.
.5/.55 Ivanovic to beat Radwanska
.25/.25 Kerber o22.5
3/3.66 Gasquet to beat Wawrinka
1/6 Wawrinka to beat Gasquet 7-6, *5-4 Live
5/3.50 Ferrer to beat Tsonga





Likely opponents:

Carreno-Busta
Benneteau
Simon
Querrey
Tsonga

Benneteau on another surface could make Federer work, but not here.

Simon doesn't have the game to trouble Federer. He should cause his overall court time to go up though as he plays so defensive the ralleys will likely be longish.

Querrey won't pose a threat whatsoever. Especially given form.

Tsonga I will manage live. Tsonga's run to the quarters won't be easy, but he should get there. Hoping the court time piles on for him. He regularly takes sets or the occasional match off Federer on hard surfaces, and I would stay miles away from this if it was on anything but clay. Odds on Federer should be around -500 for this match. If he can take the first set I will likely sell a little back to protect everything. I will look at round 1 tomorrow.
 
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Thanks Toronto Mike.

Don't like much so far on the men's. I'm running a bit too behind to cap the women's round 1 effectively. I'll wait.
 
@TheHorzy said:
Thanks Toronto Mike.

Don't like much so far on the men's. I'm running a bit too behind to cap the women's round 1 effectively. I'll wait.
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I've managed to cap a few of the women's tourney's this year on clay. It just seems unless you are Serena Williams or Maria Sharapova, you really don't have a chance. Serena is just lights out right now I've made a fucking killing on her during in games. I just think opponents are really threatened psychologically and just screw up on their own service game.

This has to be the worst top 10 WTA in years, whenever Serena enters a tournament is game over if she really cares. Unlike the mens where I think the big guns can often run into a bit of a hit...the womens game if you are shit on clay you are just down right shit, don't matter your ranking it's like you just want a pay check and sight see Paris.

I'm going to focus more on the Grass and Hardcourts

I would not be surprised if Serena and Maria don't lose a set at all
 
Carreno-Busta
Benneteau
Simon
Querrey
Tsonga

benneteau and simon looked like shit 1st round.
I think only Tsonga will pose a threat, he will have the home crowd backing him and he's too much of an emotional player that if he doesn't get things going, he will be easy to beat.

makes things easier Busta is ousted,
 
Certainly seems that way doesn't it. Granted that's because Azerenka, Li Na, Radwanska, Stosur, and basically anyone else who could challenge them on this court, or really on any court (I threw in Stosur court specific) has had such an up and down sort of form lately - it's ridiculous. Kvitova, I'm not even sure what to say about her other than her play mirrors Tsonga completely, now more than ever.

Women's tennis right now has hit a bit of a rut. Wozniacki can attest to that.
 
I am almost positive that Elena Dementieva could still school some of these players with her forehand but her serve will forever still be so shit. Man these girls should stop worrying about the grunting and looks and focus about maintaining serve. It's so embarrassing. You know who is always a good fade by Quarter Finals? Ivanovic damn she chokes just as hard on the court as she does with a 12" penis.

As mentioned earlier, come Grass courts and Hard court season you'll see more stability, the only way Serena or Sharasexy don't win this is if they beat themselves up by playing extremely shit or their opponent just hits ridiculous winners. In fact its safe to say beating those two will be like beating Nadal
 
Inclined to agree with your statements. I wonder if their is some kind of "Big 2" vs Field prop somewhere. Should be, seeing as there are a number of big names they would have to go through to get to the finals.

I finally got a bit of time now to get down to capping. So, I shall do just that.
 
I wanted either Gulbis or Gulbis o40.5 but given the weather this week I will continue to lay off. If it was sunny and nice weather the o40.5 would be a great bet in my opinion. Not say that it isn't the more favorable of the two now (o/u), but the weather is a variable I don't want to have to try and contend with.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
You know who is always a good fade by Quarter Finals? Ivanovic damn she chokes just as hard on the court as she does with a 12" penis.
Click to expand...

Man I am so pissed her early draw is as easy as crap. Not to say she can't lose (Razzano, if she gets to face her, after all has beaten Serena here), but they're simply not backable to any great degree, so it's pointless to even begin.
 
Paris, France
Wednesday 9:00 am
Clear
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1152
°C°C | °F°F

Precipitation: 0%
Humidity: 76%
Wind: 2 km/h1 mph
Temperature
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​
 
Thanks BC.

I'm struggling to find an accurate forecast throughout the day. I may still add that o40.5.

Regarding Ana, is it such a bad thing that her early draw is so poor? Her performance against Martic wasn't great, but if she does beat someone with conviction that will only help the the opening odds of her next match. Or am I missing the point of your chase against her - are you looking to win a unit or hit a big underdog?
 
Weather update:

Clear all day - fairly cold temperatures. Doesn't get out of the fifties. No wind to speak of.

0.28/0.25 Gulbis vs Monfils o.40.5

I think the number should be more like 42.5. Four set match with one tie break at minimum. Have to hope a 7-5 is in there, and not a 6-3.
 
@TheHorzy said:
Regarding Ana, is it such a bad thing that her early draw is so poor? Her performance against Martic wasn't great, but if she does beat someone with conviction that will only help the the opening odds of her next match. Or am I missing the point of your chase against her - are you looking to win a unit or hit a big underdog?
Click to expand...

With her, I'm always looking for a decent priced underdog who's worth hitting for a decent sized bet (or a string of likely opponents who all offer something that says Ana will struggle to get by all without coming unglued somewhere, hence set up a chase). You get those regular enough with Ana, you're going to make money long term (even if you take a hit or 2 in the interum). But the dog has to have a reason to back them, and her 1st 3 opponents lining up here just don't really cut it on those terms (except maybe for Razzano if she makes the 3rd round convincingly enough. Then, the fact she's a French woman & her previous emotional experience of beating Serena here will play into my looking at her seriously if I feel the odds tell me the oddsmakers give her a chance, so ironically it'll be if her price is lower than I'd have otherwise have liked it to be). I'm not interested in a small gamble simply because her opponent is high odds and that's it. She meets a decent player the only recourse you have is to back 2-0 in sets/the spread, and that's well into minus odds territory (sets) or risking her opp. taking her lightly for (usually) the 2nd set (after hammering her in the 1st) which can screw everything. Much better to deal with fat plus odds with a woman who has a little something hiding behind her. Ana's FO win from a few years back to this day leads to her being overvalued. She's a turd, putting it frankly.
 
Well conceivably you could set up a chase betting opponents you deem have some sort of value at long odds no? I will be honest though, I just looked at my draw and I have her meeting Serena. I can't see Radwanska taking her out. Radwanska is getting hit off the court all too often lately. From there you're left with Navarro or Errani - probably Errani... What then? Based on historical odds you're probably looking at a -200 favorite on Radwanska and a -160 ish favorite on Errani? In theory I could see Ivanovic taking them both out.

I will be backing Ivanovic in some shape or form vs Radwanska should the meet.
 
Final Card for Day 4:

0.28/0.25 Gulbis vs Monfils o.40.5
0.30/0.25 Hajek vs Querrey o38.5

Despite the staking, I prefer the second bet over the first.
 
@TheHorzy said:
Based on historical odds you're probably looking at a -200 favorite on Radwanska and a -160 ish favorite on Errani? In theory I could see Ivanovic taking them both out.
Click to expand...

I don't give her a shot against either. She's a head case of the worst sort, and both of those women have games rooted in sheer consistency, which is the worst kind of opponent Ana can face (after those who have power to match their own consistency, which in the women's game is rarified air). To further clarify, either women would have to beat themselves (meaning, as usual, committing a ton of unforced errors) in order for Ana to get by them, from my pov.

If Razzano gets to the 3rd round & her odds suggest the wind is blowing a certain way, then I'll bite.
 
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I agree with your assessment of Errani and Radwanska being similar players in their errorless style tennis. But I would counter with Radwanska's recent match against Robson. it showed that she can be hit off the court by a powerful opponent. Having lost the last six matches perhaps Ivanovic will have a mental block against Radwanska - okay, but at some point I plan to bet against Radwanska (perhaps in chase style fashion) and Ivanovic seems like a logical place to start.

Although I will give you it would be surprising to see Ivanovic get beaten by Urszula in Rome then beat her sister at the French. I would hope that I could get a reasonable +handicap or decent long odds. It's really not my faith in Ivanovic as it is that Radwanska is someone I have targeted this tournament I want to bet against at some point. And to bet on someone who has a power based game, I must add.
 
Been out of the house for some 17 hours now. Missed basically all of day five. Split yesterday and lost marginal juice.

Na Li...wow.
 
i will start wagering come round 4, that's usually when you know who's really in for it or who's just lucky.
Federer has barely been given a sweat, I think that early scare for Nadal is going to pump him up more. Ferrer has to get over that Nadal factor.
Still women's side its Serena's to lose. Sharapova up against the Canadian Bouchard, think the youngster is going to get a free lesson. She will be worth a look come grass season as she was last years Junior Wimbledon champ.
I'm going to take a hard look at Jankovic over Stosur, this might be a good underdog to take. She is finally playing some consistent tennis now been a few years. Though Sam likes playing in the French, Jankovic can compete with her power for power.
I also think Jank has a better service game.
might be a 3 setter as well
 
Wouldn't surprise me Mike. Two French guys going head to head, it never goes in a straight forward fashion.

1.15/1 Raonic vs Anderson o42

Will update record after this play.
 
Through two sets the scoreline isn't even as good of a reflection of the match as it should be. Raonic certainly looks second best.
 
-9 is ridiculous. my individual match handicapping is so poor right now. i may be best to stop before i lose any significant money. im wrong on how almost every match will play out
 
1-3
-1.48

3/3.3 Svetlana to beat Kerber
.5/.55 Ivanovic to beat Radwanska
.25/.25 Kerber o22.5

Kuznetsova has the game on Clay to absolutely dominate Kerber. I'm throwing out the previous two meetings this year basically because of the surface. Madrid was an exceptionally fast clay court, and the other was at the AO. Despite her 9-3 clay record so far this year, Kerber hasn't beaten a notable clay courter (Kuznetsova Madrid I concede), and I think that her movement gets exposed and she winds up playing a lot of the match from a negative position in rallys.

I've been looking to fade Radwanska since this tournament started. This is setting up a likely chase scenario for me.

If Svetlana cannot put together an entire match, I may as well make a little back on it (regarding third wager).
 
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2/2.10 Kerber to beat Kuznetsova (live) *4-3 Kerber in the 2nd set.

Trying to get mostly out. Kuznetsova could not be playing stupider tennis if she tried. First set she went and broke down Kerber's (backhand) by far the weaker wing. Second set she is obsessed with trying to beat her on the forehand.
 
when it comes to mental toughness kerber is the obvious favorite. i really though svetlana would exercise her demons from madrid and win in 2 if she was going to win. we'll see.

sset and a break. what a curse. poor hedging by me as well. could have had +550 odds
 
and it's honestly by deviating from her tactics that are working.

if she forgot the drop shot, and continually picked on the backhand she would be alright
 
and this is the problem when I watch these matches, the difference between a lot of these players in terms of physical abilities is not that much, they are professional and are built for the beating the body takes. but tactics and mental capacity...well it's all just different.
Serena ain't the prettiest or smoothest player around but she's very smart and stays to what she can do. I will eat my own shit if I ever see Serena try to pull off a one hand back down the line for a winner at a Grand Slam.
These chicks sometimes need a reality check....GRAND SLAM, don't fuck up!
 
Kerber's purple patch is over. Notably that patch only came when Svetlana could afford to play poorly. The moment the Russian had no more room for error, she's kicked it back into 1st gear.
 
I notice you said your starting a chase to fade the Pole, I'm doing the same with the turd. She wins here, she's not getting past Errani, it's as simple as that.
 
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