Fondybadger's - Week 7 - CFB, added writeups on almost every game




Fondybadger

Fondybadger

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2006 College Football 180-159-10 +$2131.95
Week 1 37-33-1 +$286
Week 2 26-25-2 +$757
Week 3 19-6-2 +$1357
Week 4 25-20 +$13
Week 5 29-29-1-$343.25
Week 6 35-41-1 -$884
Week 7 9-5 +$948.20 (so far)

Favorites 109-97-9 +$1371.75
1Q Faves 3-1 +$233.75
1H Faves 36-40 -$747
2H Faves 3-2 +$175
Faves 67-54-9 +$1710

Money Lines 2-4 +$29

Dogs 38-32-1 +$462
1Q Dogs 0-1 -$20
1H Dogs 1-6 -$552
2H Dogs 5-2 +$497
Dogs 32-23-1 +$537

Overs 13-17 -$191.80
1Q Over 0-3 -$35
1H Over 7-4 +$296
2H Over 0-1 -$31.80
Over 6-9 -$421

Unders 18-9 +$461
1Q under 2-0 +$50
1H under 4-0 +$200
2H under 1-0 +$100
under 11-9 +$111

Saturday Plays 28-20-1 +$2343
L $250 West Virginia 1H -13.5
W $150 Purdue -7
L $50 Northwestern/Purdue OVER 52
W $50 Northwestern/Purdue 1H OVER 26.5
W $50 Wisconsin/Minnesota OVER 50.5
W $75 Wisconsin/Minnesota 1H OVER 24.5
W $400 Wisconsin -10
W $200 Wisconsin 1H -4.5
L $100 Iowa 1H -10 -120
L $50 Iowa -19.5
L $50 NCST -3
W $75 FSU 1Q -6.5
W $150 FSU 1H -13
W $125 FSU -22.5
L $75 Navy -2.5
L $125 Northern Illinois -3
L $75 Missouri -2.5
L $75 Maryland -3
W $200 Ohio State -14
W $50 Ohio State -17
W $200 Ohio State 1H -7 -120
W $200 Ohio State/Michigan State under 53.5
W $75 Oregon 1H -5
W $75 Oregon -9
L $300 Louisville 1H -14 W$500 Hawaii -3
W $300 Texas 1H -17
W $350 California -9
W $150 California 1H -5
L $200 Texas 1Q -7
L $25 Maryland 1H -0.5
L $75 miami 1h -14
W $200 Michigan 1H -3
W $200 LSU 1H -14
W $50 Nebraska -9
L $75 Illinois -6
L $75 Houston +1.5
W $300 Texas -28
W $350 Michigan -6.5
P $150 Michigan -7
L $75 Florida -2
W $75 LSU -25
 
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$400 Wisconsin -10
Homecoming week in Madison. The Wisconsin offense with PJ Hill at RB and Stocco getting healthy from his knee injury is really starting to click. Add in the fact that the defense is one of the better units in the Big 10 and Wisconsin should cover a 2td spread plus. I"ll be hitting this 1H as well...

$125 Virginia Tech -2.5
Was thinking of taking Boston College, but I was expecting a DD type spread. Way too much value on VT here in my opinion based on the line.

$75 Missouri -2.5
Line keeps moving up, was going to hit it at 2, went to 3, back down to 2.5 right now so I'll bite while I can. Missouri is just winning baby.

$50 Ohio State -17
I want a play on this game, but I feel the line is close on being where it should be. Think the line will move against me, and will probably add a bit more at -21 or less come game time. See what the 1H line is as well...

Florida at Auburn -1
I'll wait to hear some of the SEC guys thoughts on this game. I can't pick games in this league right now to save my life.

$350 Michigan -6.5
I don't see why Michigan and OSU keep getting undervalued in Big 10 play. As long as it stays under 10, I'll be adding more all week as more money in my Pinny account is freed up (and my local has a line on the game). Look to put about 5-600 on it total...

Arizona State at USC -19
The way USC is playing lately a play might be warranted on ASU. Now only if Sam Keller was still playing for them.
 
I wouldnt play USC if jarret and smith are out. Turner is good and Hazelton will be, but they are young.
 
I Like Asu Actually.....come Realize This Usc Team Is Probably The Best In The Country However They Will Never Blow Anyone Out This Year Like We Saw In The Past Remind A Lot Of The Carolina Panthers, Just Win
 
$250 Pittsburgh -10
Pittsburgh I think is one of those teams that is constantly underrated. Central Florida doesn't do a whole lot for me and getting this game at 10 (I was thinking around 14) is a great value imo.

$150 Purdue -7
Keep fading Northwestern as long as you're getting good numbers. I'd hit this for more, but I don't know how well Purdue will do on the road in the Big 10.

Going to take a heavy look at California -8, Fresno State +5.5, & Arizona (buy to 3).

Would like Texas -28 (may buy the hook, but will wait)

$150 Michigan -7
Key number I want to get it at, have some more cash freed up now that NFL is done. Wish I'd gotten it all at -6.5, but its still fine.
 
You realize this is the best defense UM has faced this year and PSU has some serious revenge issues with the wolves after last year and the year before that..well you get my drift..this game is a night game as well...Hart and MM limped off the field yesterday so you better check that out too..I am waiting on this one, I will take PSU if it gets over 10 but have UM on some ML parlays.
 
That's some serious chalk being layed, Fondy. I agree with Big Al and Hunt on the Michigan play this week. I'm waiting to see what the line will do before I jump on the home doggy.

Good luck on your others as I may end up playing Mizzou myself if I can get a good line on pk or moneyline.
 
If Mario is in i'll lean towards Michigan. I'm riding Mizzou all the way and managed to catch Florida +1 underdog vs. Auburn. Was gonna do +3 but...well I don't know why I didn't. LSU should have beat Auburn, Florida beat LSU. Arkansas ran all day and Tebow will do the same.
 
That wisky line is falling which is interesting. What does minny have to play for?
 
Hey Fondy. I like VT this week, and leaning heavily to PITT as well. Going the other way with Minnesota +10.5. I think Wisky wins this game, but by a field goal. This is always a huge rivalry game, and the Minny running game can keep them in this. GL this week buddy! :cheers:
 
fondy...manningham is done for the year (Detroit news/ESPN.com)

im leaning PSU big time...big Sat night game in Happy Valley
 
like T A&M also...you're asking Missouri to win two straight games in conference on the road...tough task

if they dont get those 2 pick 6's early last week, may be a different outcome
 
Wow fondy that is a pretty public card. GL to you, lots of road chalk and a couple of fishy lines in that bunch.....
 
mattingly. manningham is NOT out for the year, but he is out for this game.

U-M's Manningham has arthroscopic surgery


October 10, 2006
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By MARK SNYDER
FREE PRESS SPORTS WRITER


Michigan wide receiver Mario Manningham will miss the Penn State game, U-M coach Lloyd Carr said Tuesday.

"Mario had arthroscopic surgery this morning and we got great news as far as the injury," Carr said during Tuesday's Big Ten teleconference. "Hell miss this week but were very excited about the news we received."

Carr would not speculate on a timetable for Manningham's return. ESPN reported during Michigan's win over Michigan State on Saturday that the injury was to Manningham's right knee.

Manningham leads the Big Ten in receiving yards (527) and touchdowns (nine).
 
Wisky falls to 7 it's a must hit. They won despite letting up over 400 yards rushing last year SU and ATS. Minny doesn't bring the same attack back and Wisky seems much improved on D since that game. Your confidence in your team gives me confidence in this play. Wisky is one of those teams that just keeps cashing tickets.
 
Inspekdah said:
Wisky falls to 7 it's a must hit. They won despite letting up over 400 yards rushing last year SU and ATS. Minny doesn't bring the same attack back and Wisky seems much improved on D since that game. Your confidence in your team gives me confidence in this play. Wisky is one of those teams that just keeps cashing tickets.
Click to expand...

Remember they covered/won last year on a blocked punt for a TD with like 20 seconds left... So they could have some revenge factor in this game...
 
A run for their money

Badgers face stiff test with Minnesota

By JEFF POTRYKUS
jpotrykus@journalsentinel.com

Posted: Oct. 9, 2006

Madison - In the midst of the bitter loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Conference opener, the University of Wisconsin players and coaches realized something they thought would aid them the remainder of the season:
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UW can defend the run.
"I think you do need to see a physical team to see where you're at," UW defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz said of the loss to Michigan.
Tailback Mike Hart managed 91 yards in 23 carries that day but Michigan finished with just 111 yards in 39 attempts, an average of 2.8 yards per carry. Through six games, the Wolverines lead the Big Ten and are 17th nationally in rushing at 195.7 yards per game.
"I knew that would be a good yardstick for us," Hankwitz said, noting that the Wolverines had a senior-laden line and an outstanding tailback in Hart. "We felt like we were progressing and capable of playing against a team like that.
"But you've still got to do it in a game. And once you have done it, it should give the players confidence they can do it. They know what it takes."
UW (5-1, 2-1) faces a similar test this week against visiting Minnesota (2-4, 0-3), a team that under coach Glen Mason prides itself on the ability to run the ball on anyone.
The Gophers lost tailbacks Laurence Maroney (early jump to the NFL) and Gary Russell (academics) and several key offensive linemen from 2005 and aren't running the ball as prodigiously as they have in past seasons.
However, they are still No. 24 in the nation at 180.5 yards per game and did rush 24 times for 108 yards in a 14-point loss to Michigan. That is 96 yards more than UW gained on the ground against the Wolverines and 34 yards more than the Wolverines' first four opponents gained combined.
"They have a plan and they recruit to the plan," said Purdue coach Joe Tiller, whose team beat the Gophers on Sept. 23 despite surrendering 194 rushing yards. "Coach Mason has always believed in the run game and being a physical team."
UW, meanwhile, is fourth in the Big Ten and 46th nationally in rushing defense at 118.7 yards per game. Last season, UW finished eighth in the Big Ten and 79th nationally against the run (167.5 yards per game).
Indiana's Josiah Sears (nine carries, 100 yards) is the only running back to reach the 100-yard mark against UW this season. However, 85 of his yards came after UW built a 35-0 halftime lead.
The reasons for the improvement this season are a line that gradually has grown stronger and linebackers who are more instinctive and active than the trio of last season.
Minnesota tore through UW's depleted defensive line and embarrassed the linebackers last season to the tune of 411 rushing yards, though UW rallied for a 38-34 victory.
The Gophers' top runners this season are Amir Pinnix and Alex Daniels. Pinnix is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and leads the team in rushing with 553 yards. He rushed 20 times for 91 yards in the loss to the Wolverines. Daniels, a converted linebacker, is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and is No. 2 on the team in rushing with 300 yards.
"It is a typical Minnesota team," said Penn State coach Joe Paterno, whose Nittany Lions escaped with a 28-27 overtime victory last week in Minneapolis. "You get reckless trying to stop the run and they have a good quarterback."
That quarterback is senior Bryan Cupito. Through six games this season, Cupito has completed 61.9% of his passes for 1,304 yards and 11 touchdowns with just three interceptions.
Cupito, who did not play against UW last season because of injuries to both shoulders, is the No. 1 reason the Badgers must control the Gophers' ground game.
The Gophers have several dangerous receivers and much of their attack is based on play-action passes designed to take advantage of teams selling out to stop the run.
When the teams met two seasons ago in Madison, UW took control early, slowed Minnesota's ground game and forced Cupito to pass. He passed for 258 yards but completed just 17 of 33 attempts (51.5%) and never seriously hurt UW.
"The Michigan game showed we can certainly stop or at least contain a very, very good running game," strong safety Joe Stellmacher said. "I thought our front seven played phenomenal that game, particularly the D-line."
From the Oct. 10, 2006 editions of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
 
A couple key things with regard to the Badger play:
UW has won 14 of its last 15 games at Camp Randall Stadium.

The Badgers should benefit by being at home. Since Glen Mason took over as Minnesota coach in 1997, UW is 4-0 against the Gophers at Camp Randall. The average margin of victory in those games is 20.5 points. This game could hinge on Minnesota's emotional state as much as UW's ability to control the Gophers' running game and quarterback Bryan Cupito. The Gophers suffered a one-point loss in overtime to Penn State on Saturday, thanks to a missed extra-point attempt. If UW can take control early, the Gophers might not have much fight left in them.

Loosey-goosey works for UW

Madison - You will probably want to know how good Wisconsin is after beating on a couple of Big Ten tomato cans by the combined score of 93-26 in the last two weeks. You also will probably want to know whether the Badgers merit top-25 consideration.

Without skirting the issues, UW's strength of schedule, or the decided lack thereof, continues to provide few definitive answers, thereby leaving the Badgers as possibly the nation's most inscrutable 5-1 team.
But without reservation, we can say this: No matter where the second half of the season takes Wisconsin, these Badgers, as the amateur version of those freewheeling Oakland A's, are going to enjoy the ride.
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You can feel it in the way the players accompany the crowd in the stadium-shaking "Jump Around" ritual to begin the fourth quarter. You can sense it in the slapstick lineup introductions on the big board. And you can most assuredly see it in linebacker Mark Zalewski.
After the Badgers hammered Northwestern, 41-9, Saturday with a 24-zip second-half outburst, Zalewski was answering questions in a suit, a tie and a blond Mohawk. "I've named (lineman) Mark Gorman as my personal stylist," Zalewski said when asked what he planned for this week's 'do.
Across the way, fellow linebacker DeAndre Levy was also sporting the Zalewski look up top. "The personality of a lot of guys," the Milwaukee Vincent graduate said, "is taking over the team."
And that's not a bad thing, as long as it continues to result in performances such as the one that crushed Indiana the week before and eventually reduced the Wildcats to a quivering mess underfoot of P.J. Hill's 249 rushing yards. Hill's got personality to spare, not to mention the legs to carry the football 35 times in the grand Wisconsin tradition.
Then again, maybe the Badgers' free-and-easy manner helps explain their place on the college football landscape. Under Barry Alvarez, there was always that flat game or two each season, maybe because the team was uptight. So far with Bret Bielema, the Badgers have yet to produce a completely uninspired performance.
"The haircuts, the dancing around in the fourth quarter, I want our guys to enjoy the game and relax," Bielema said. "They're no-nonsense guys, but at times they're full of nonsense."
Because he's 36 years old and not that far removed from his playing days, Bielema encourages his players to freely express their personalities. While playing for Hayden Fry at Iowa, Bielema recalls the Friday night team meals as being somber and silent to the point that they felt more like a church service. Free speech is now on the UW menu.
"Coach wants you to bring your personality to the game," said Luke Swan, who caught a beautiful 14-yard touchdown pass from John Stocco in the second quarter. "He found that out before the Michigan game. We were relaxed at the hotel, and he saw that in our play."
The Badgers did not win at Michigan, but they played about as well and as uninhibited as they probably could at the Big House. They were also not very good in the first half against Northwestern, losing the ball three times as they did. And while the Badgers were just one score up at halftime, Bielema saw nothing in his players' collective demeanor to warrant concern.
"They're loosey-goosey and like having fun," Bielema said. "I really enjoy coaching this football team."
The Badgers are clearly taking on their coach's personality, and the good times will roll until further notice.
"As long as we're winning," Levy smiled, "we can do whatever we want."
 
Inspekdah said:
Wisky falls to 7 it's a must hit.
Click to expand...

I'd prolly double my bet if it gets to 7.

On another note, good god, I got raped on my early lines this week. Everything moved against me or stayed the same. This sucks. Should have waited on a few of these.

I'll have a few first half plays and a couple more favorites posted tomorrow with some writeups.
 
I responded to an individual at covers with regards to the Badger game... Here's a copy of it..

Eugene/Bling - You're entitled to your opinions but I feel your logic is completely flawed and I couldn't disagree with you more. I also question your motive with this post as you named it "Big Info" - where's the big info? Just trying to draw attention to yourself? I don't see any stats or reasoning why we should back the Gophers except because you're saying so. Also you claim to be a Wisconsin student? Then why does your profile say you're a student at Maryland? Must know the Badgers pretty well. (rolls eyes)

Looking at what you say:
"Wisco is in for a major letdown. Coming off a game in which they shellacked Northwestern at home, UW is not in this game to make a statement. UW does not ususally win big back to back weeks, this years offense has about 1/4 the talent of last year, and Northwestern is bad to the point, that I don't buy into big W's against that team."

Where to start with this comment. First its homecoming. Second it's Minnesota. Two of the most important games for Wisconsin students and alumni. Do you think the players, many of them who know the tradition behind the Axe (the trophy they play for), don't want to come out and dominate this game because they feel the same way as the students and alumni? Second you say Wisconsin can't win big back to back weeks... Um, why look at last year, when the Badgers won at Indiana not even two weeks ago 52-17 (was 52-0 until 2nd and 3rd string went in) and then beat Northwestern this week 41-9. There's two very recent back to back wins, but seeing you brought up last year - lets take a look at those games.

"The Badgers beat Temple 65-0 in the second game of the season last year, which is the only score from last year that resembles this past weeks 41-9 win. The next game, they barely won, 14-5 at North Carolina, that was with Calhoun, Orr, Williams, Owen Daniels etc. four NFL players at the skill positions alone."

How is this seasons scenario different from what you described? First, the Badgers are playing at home against a Big 10 team they know well instead of playing on the road against an ACC team they didn't know. Also, that game last year against UNC was the first time they played on the road. What else is notable about that "down game" they had last season against UNC? Well first the defensive line was pretty banged up as they had two starters out. Second, the game was delayed to later in the evening because of storms. Third, backups, most notably Booker Stanley (who's now off the team) made key errors on turnovers and penalties in the game because of injuries to the starters. To quote last years local paper on the game, "UW led 7-3, at halftime, but the lead could have been at least 17-3 and perhaps 21-3." Oh, and as for a look ahead game last season, Wisconsin played Michigan the next game after UNC. As for saying who the Badgers lost, you're right they did lose a lot of quality players on offense who will be contributors in the NFL. But John Stocco is better at QB, PJ Hill will ultimately be a better RB than Brian Calhoun, 6 receivers have TD passes this year for the Badgers (thus more weapons as the defense can't zone in on one guy), and the Badgers TE this last game, why he had over 100 yards receiving. The talent is still there. Especially on the offensive line where Joe Thomas will be a top 5 pick at LT, an the right side of the line has two highschool teammates at guard and tackle. Not to mention it's one of the biggest lines in the nation.

"With Iowa coming up in a few weeks, all thoughts are on that game, as that will define the Badgers season."

I have so many things I want to say about this comment, but all I'll say is Wisconsin plays Iowa on November 11th. They have FOUR games between now and then. If all of their thoughts are on that game the Wisconsin football program should just cease to exist.

"Meanwhile Minnesota is coming off their toughest game of the year, versus Penn State, in a game that they should and could have won, they came back ultimately to lose a heartbreaker in overtime. A win in that game almost locks up a bowl, and would have been their marquee victory of the season."

Well I'm not sure if Minnesota should have won the game. They were a 4.5 point underdog the last time I checked (well that was what I got them at atleast). They definately were in position to win in OT and I feel got a call against them that shouldn't have been made. Although, they were lucky to come back like they did and even force an OT. As for saying a win in that game almost locks up a bowl? Lets see instead of being 2-4 they'd be 3-3 and be 1-2 in the Big 10 instead of 0-3. Don't think any bowls would almost be locked up, especially when the other two wins were against Kent State and Temple and they play at Wisconsin, at Ohio State, at Michigan State, and against Iowa yet this year.


As it is, one has to figure that the Gophers will roll in to Madison, hoping to ruin any chances UW has of competing for the Big Ten Championship. Meanwhile, UW will approach this as a game that they should win, fresh off a big statement win at home, after a deflating loss to Michigan. Basically, the Badgers got it out of their system against NW, while the Gophs will be steaming as they come to town.

I'm glad you think the Badgers have a chane to win the Big 10 title when Michigan and Ohio State will go undefeated until they play each other, because I really don't feel they have a chance as Michigan would need to lose two games for Wisconsin to get the tiebreaker. Also, I think the sign of a good football team is they approach every game as if they should win. Confident but cocky is key. The second part of that sentence you're contradicting yourself. You say it's a big statement win at home, yet in another sentence you say you don't "buy into big W's against them." As for calling the loss to Michigan deflating? I find that laughable. Wisconsin lost by 14, on the road at a place they notoriously struggle at, against one of the best teams in the nation. I'll post an article in a minute that talks about that game, and how the Badger players mindset is this year. It definately isn't deflated. I'd also like to know your reasoning why you feel that the Gophers will come into town steaming? We says they're not deflated after losing a game they had such a chance to win. The wind could be knocked right out of them for all we know.

Add in the fact that the Badgers barely won by four last year, only on a last minute punt block for touchdown at that, and one can see why the line is dropping, even w/ the public on Wisco.
Minnesota was ranked 22nd in the nation going into the game last year and they were playing at home. Minnesota was much better last year than they are this season.

Bottom line, is that if UW underestimates UM, UM could win outright.

That's true for any game or team... Case in point: Ohio State halftime score against Cincy earlier this season.

Minnesota's D is significantly better than Northwestern's, so PJ Hill will not have 250 yards rushing again. I look for the Gophs to stack the line repeatedly early, make Stocco beat them, and expose UW's slowish D, as Cupito should have a lot of time to throw, and thus should be making plays.

Significantly better huh? Well Minnesota defense is allowing 20.8 pts/g, while Northwestern is allowing 24.7 - Remember Minnesota won 62-0 against Temple as well. As for yards, Minnesota allows 390.0 a game compared to the 353.0 that Northwestern allows. Edge there is Northwestern. As for rush yards allowed this season? Minnesota has allowed 986 while Northwestern has allowed 978. Heck I'll even call that a tie for you. As for passing yards... 1354 allowed for Minnesota, 1140 allowed for Northwestern. Although, you could consider Minnesota defense significantly better than Northwestern's because they have one more interception on the season than the Wildcats. lol - As for Wisconsin they're allowing 12.8 points a game and only 246.7 yards per. It's one of the best defenses in the country. Speed definately isn't an issue either.

This leads to Jon Stocco and his non-existent receiving corps to win the game.

I'll give you credit here. Wisconsin is lacking experienced WR's/TE's this season. But they do have players with some serious skill there. Travis Beckum and and Paul Hubbard are 12th and 13th in the conference in receiving yards and Luke Swan I believe is in the top 25 with guys like Ted Ginn, Mario Manningham, and Dorien Bryant in front of them that isn't too bad... PJ Hill is a threat out of the backfield receiving as well and leads the Big 10 in rushing yards by 50+. Cupito and Stocco at QB's statistically is a wash. Personally I'd rather have Cupito if he could stay healthy though.

Also considering this will be a noon start, the crowd will not be nearly as into it, as in other Gopher/Badger games.

Um... If you are a Wisconsin student have you ever gone to a game before? I'd say every game I've gone to the last 6 years of being a student/alumni there I've been up and having a beer in hand by 7 or 8am. I'm definately not in the minority in that regards either. The students and alumni WILL be fired up for this game, as evident of the $150+ prices for this game you see on ebay and other ticket exchanges. We're use to the early starts as most Badger games start at 11am, unless ABC picks up a 2:30 game as the Big 10 & ESPN have the contract to start at that time.

If Minnesota comes to play, UW will be in trouble, expect 23-20 or something like that as the final. Again, I go to UW, I know this squad, take it or leave it, but I love Minny and the points.

I expect Minnesota to come and play. They have a some solid senior leaders on the team and a coach who will have the team ready to go. That said, Wisconsin should not be in trouble. They have the talent, coaching, and ability to cover at least two td's if not more in this game. Personally, I'm on Wisconsin -10 for a pretty big amount that I got when the lines came out Sunday morning. If the line for some reason drops to -7, I'll be doubling down on it.
 
Fondybadger said:
I'd prolly double my bet if it gets to 7.

On another note, good god, I got raped on my early lines this week. Everything moved against me or stayed the same. This sucks. Should have waited on a few of these.

I'll have a few first half plays and a couple more favorites posted tomorrow with some writeups.
Click to expand...

Shit happened to me. Got wvu -28.5 and it was -20 at kickoff.. WVU won by 28:hairout: Got to be quick to hedge out..:shake:
 
This is what I posted in Bling's thread at covers. The guy is like trying to goad fondy into a verbal war of words. What a tool... :shake:


I love how the public is acting like Minnesota is a crappy team, or that Wisky is so much better.

Minnesota has had a very tough schedule to this point (unlike Wisky). They ALMOST covered against Michigan, and should have had a legitimate shot to beat Penn State straight up.

Doesn't anybody here remember the game last year, at Minnesota? The heart breaking, devastating, last second blocked punt for a TD that won the game for Wisky will be fresh in the minds of Mason and his Golden Gophers (I for one will never forget that game). Revenge is a HUGE factor in this game, which is also a monster rivalry. If you think Wisconsin is going to just wipe the floor with Minny, I think you better look beyond the stats (which are misleading for Wisky).

Wisconsin has played...

Bowling Green, Western Illinois, San Diego State, Michigan, Indiana, and Northwestern.

The only team in that group worth a shit is Michigan (my sorry ass Aztecs are undoubtedly the worst of that group). So if you ask me, Wisky's impressive statistics don't mean much to this point (against crap opponents).

Now lets look at who Minnesota has played...

Kent State, Cal, Temple, Purdue, Michigan, and Penn State.

There are FOUR legit teams in that group. So, it's pretty obvious that Minny has had a much tougher schedule...therefore, their stats aren't as impressive.

Having said all that, I do think Wisky is the better team. But emotions (especially between these two rivals) will play a big role in this game, as will the always consistent running game for Minnesota. Wisky should win, but I think this is decided by 7 points or less. If you haven't guessed, I'm on Minnesota +10.5.

Just my $0.02 fellas. Good health to you fondy. :shake:
 
Fondy,

GL this weekend, I like Wisconsin alot, I agree with you, just to much offense and they seem to be playing in a zone right now!!!!!!! Lets take it to the bank!!!!!!!!

:smiley_acbe:
 
I caught the Minny/PSU game last Saturday and Minny had NOOOO business being in that game.

Paterno turned it over like 3 times in Minny's red zone, missed a chippy FG, tried some bullshit fake kick.

If they had a kicker and half of a pass D they win 24-3.

Bucky should win by 3 scores and Michigan is gonna roll Penn St.
 
aplous said:
I caught the Minny/PSU game last Saturday and Minny had NOOOO business being in that game.

Paterno turned it over like 3 times in Minny's red zone, missed a chippy FG, tried some bullshit fake kick.

If they had a kicker and half of a pass D they win 24-3.

Bucky should win by 3 scores and Michigan is gonna roll Penn St.
Click to expand...

I really hope we're both right on that note then...
 
Fondy,

Any thoughts of the O/U in the Wisky game? I think both D's are the weak link, so I would lean to the over. Wondering your thoughts...
 
Fondy:

HILL and STOCCO to the HOUSE baby!!!!!!!!! :smiley_acbe:

This is a team on-the-rise with an OUTSTANDING RB, solid QB and TOUGH D...Minny will always be Minny away-from-the-dome....PIECES OF SHITE...:wacka wacka:

Mully :drink: :wacka wacka: :drink:
 
12:00 PM Plays
$250 West Virginia 1H -13.5
I'm very happy to be laying under two touchdowns getting West Virginia at home against a Syracuse team that has played above their heads. I look for them going to WV, facing their first "hostile" crowd (sorry Wake/Illi), and folding in the early going. Expect about 24-7 type game at halftime. I actually can see Syracuse covering this game, but that's a no play for me. The total is too tight to tell imo.

$150 Purdue -7
I keep fading Northwestern as long as I get their opponents at a good number. I'd hit this for more, but I don't know how well Purdue will do on the road in the Big 10. As for the line movement on this since Sunday, I don't know if I'd play this at 7.5 either way. I think Purdue wins this by double digits, but with their road play, and ability to fade down the stretch in games, if you're on Purdue make sure you get a 7. I expect Purdue to put up some big offensive nubmers and the over 51 looks interesting, but will be a game time decison. Highly doubt I'll play a total. small lean to over 51.

 $400 Wisconsin -10
$200 Wisconsin 1H -4.5
Homecoming week in Madison. The Wisconsin offense with PJ Hill at RB and Stocco getting healthy from his knee injury, is really starting to click. Add in the fact that the defense is one of the better units in the Big 10 and Wisconsin should cover a 2td spread. This line has really moved on me since Sunday and not in a good way. All signs point to Minny not having confidence in themselves. Weather will be around 40 degrees with a 10-15 mph wind. Should effect Cupito a bit more than Stocco as he's use to the dome in Minny. I see around a 17-10 haltime score with Wisconsin leading. With a 34-17/20 type final. I see Wisconsin in control all game and won't be concerned if Minny gets an opening drive fg. Would lean to taking both overs, like the 1H over a bit more than the game over. Probably make two smaller plays on half ($75) and game ($50) for a rooting interest. I may also add another $100 or $200 on Wisky before kickoff tomorrow.

$100 Iowa 1H -10 -120
$50 Iowa -19.5
Was cheaper buying the half point on this from my local then taking it at Pinny where the juice is at -124. I'm largely basing this play on how Indiana came out in the 1st half against Wisconsin. Drew Tate appears to be close to full strength, and Iowa should get out to a quick lead in this game. Look for a 24 or so point win for Iowa. Lean towards under in Iowa/Indiana, but that's more of a gut feel that I won't be playing.

$50 North Carolina State -3
I look at this as a letdown game for Wake Forest. After how they played last week against Clemson, people have a higher opinion on them than they should. NCST has started to play solidly since the QB switch and they're always a great home team. I got the number I was looking for when the lines came out and I'll put a small play on it. Think under, but nothing I'd play.

South Florida -3 at North Carolina
gasp! a play I'm not on. Most of the stats point towards USF in this one, and I wasn't almost convinced to put a small play on them. My gut is telling me to take UNC though. South Florida hasn't played that well on the road this year, losing at Kansas by 7 and beating Central Florida by 7. Just think UNC wins SU. No play, no thought on the total.

Army at UConn -4.5
No leans on this game. Don't know either team well enough.
 
--- Forgot to mention QB Ben Mauk is out for Wake Forest as well (possibly for the season)

1:00 PM Plays
Miami Ohio -7.5 at Buffalo
I couldn't even find this game offered on Pinny. My local has this one, and I can't bring myself to even look at it. Tempted to bet the home team with points. Although Miami is 0-6 I could see a blowout. No thank you.

Ball State at Central Michigan -10.5
I know nothing about either of these two teams. Look for Rexy's thread on Saturday for his advice.

$75 FSU 1Q -6.5
$150 FSU 1H -13
$125 FSU -22.5
I have a feeling that this game will be a lot like the Clemson/Temple game on Thursday night. Did you know that Duke averages 5.5 points a game? I didn't... thought it was a bit more than that. I think this is going to be one of those games that FSU will be able to name what they win by. Just a bit concerned about their offense or I'd really pound this. Would look towards the under 41, as I think FSU wins 35-0 or so. FSU could put it over themselves though, so it is a no play for me.

1:30 PM Plays
$75 Navy -2.5
In college basketball I like taking unranked home favorites against ranked dogs. Give it a shot in CFB.

2:00 PM Plays
Big 12 games I don't know well enough, we have enough guys at ctg that do though and depending how my early games are going I could coattail a few...

$75 Missouri -2.5
Line keeps moving up, was going to hit it at 2, went to 3, back down to 2.5 right now so I'll bite while I can. Missouri is just winning baby. Not sure if I like the line moving back down on me, and won't add more money on it.

$125 Northern Illinois
I've been riding Northern Illinois most of the season and it hasn't been treating me very well. Wolfe is a stud though, and I like getting under a fg, even if they're on the road. It appears Western Michigan has a solid team this year, and I'll admit I haven't seen them play. This wager is basically a belief in Wolfe and Northern Illinois running attack, and how they have historically wooped up on WMU.

The Ole' Miss/Bama game doesn't do much for me either, and I forgot to get ahold of RambleOn before he went to the game to get his opinion. No play for me.

The line movement from -14 to -8.5 in Memphis/Arky state has me shouting STAY AWAY!!! I don't trust Sun Belt teams or Memphis when it comes to covering spread. Go Darius Washington!!!
 
rutlemic said:
Hey fondy,are you betting with your heart on wisky or are they gonna get it done on minny?
Click to expand...

Normally I don't bet with my heart. I made a pretty hefty bet on Michigan (against Wisky this season) and I have no problem being on the opposite side of Bucky. I really think they'll get it done on Minnesota. Wisconsin will put in at least 3 td's and I expect 4+. The biggest question to the game is if Wisconsin's defense can shut down the run, which they did against Michigan and everyone else, and how well they contain Cupito. I feel that Cupito is really going to struggle tomorrow, as he'll be pressured up front, and the defensive backs are a group that seems to be in the right place at the right time. I could be wrong on this wager, so don't bet your last dollar on them, but I'm confident Wisconsin will cover the spread. If they don't, I was way off of my opening line of -14, and still wanting to take Wisconsin.
 
3:30 PM Plays
 $75 Maryland -3
I'll coattail Mr. T here...

$200 Ohio State -14
$50 Ohio State -17
$200 Ohio State 1st Half -7 -120 (bought hook)
Take a good look at Huntdog's signature and that tells you why I'm on this game.

$75 Oregon 1H -5
$75 Oregon -9
UCLA will be in big trouble without Olsen.

$300 Louisville 1H -14
Great first half number for a great team...
 
ADDING
$50 Wisconsin/Minnesota OVER 50.5
$75 Wisconsin/Minnesota 1H OVER 24.5
$50 Northwestern/Purdue OVER 52
$50 Northwestern/Purdue 1H OVER 26.5
$200 Ohio State/Michigan State under 53.5
 
Hey fondy, i loooooooooooooove whisky......they are tough.....easy cover.......

Please send me a school prospectus, I am thinking of enrolling with all the money they have made me this year.....:spank: :spank:
 
ADDING:
$25 Maryland 1H -0.5
$50 Nebraska -9
$350 California -9
$150 California 1H -5
$75 Florida -2
$75 Illinois -6
$75 Houston +1.5
$75 LSU -25
$200 Michigan 1H -3
 
I may end up doubling down on michigan... Want to see how i do here, but could make it a dime play... I'm feeling it today
 
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