Fondybadger's Week 1 College Football - Lets Talk Fresno/Rutgers

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
2006 College Football 344-322-16 +$2873
2007
College Football 361-305-13 +$4685
2008 College Football 65-32-1 +$3059

Will update first window with all my wagers. Some thoughts may be available on select games elsewhere in thread.

Week 1 66-35-1 +$2214

Thursday 10-5 +$1175
Friday 2-0 +$175
Saturday 49-27-1 +$1309
Sunday 4-0 +$400
Monday 1-3 -$845

 
Last edited:
UTEP at Buffalo -3
Gasp! Buffalo with a team that can compete? Who would have thought that. The team had a very nice season last year for the program with a lot of momentum to end the year. This season they bring back 10 starters on offense (center graduated) and 8 starters on defense. Included in the returning starters are 4th year starting QB Drew Willy, junior RB James Starks, and junior WR Naaman Roosevelt and senior WR Ernest Jackson who together should put up some huge numbers. Willy owns multiple school records and is very good protecting the ball (no INT in last 7 games over 235 passes). Stark was 2nd team All-MAC and rushed for over 1,000 yards. He also has big play ability, with 4 of his 12 td's last year going for 70 yards or more. The two experienced WR's combined for 116 receptions and 1411 yards last season and there's plenty of experience on the offensive line. Defensively Buffalo is strong on the defensive line and in the secondary is probably the best in the MAC, but they need some help at linebacker. Look for a strong defensive showing and possible highlights from SS Davonte Shannon. UTEP's starting QB is back and he put up solid numbers last season, but their starting RB graduated (drafted 5th round) and the player expected to fill in is out for the year with a fractured ankle. In will step Terrell Jackson, a former Oregon player who transferred after sitting behind Jon Stewart. He appears to catch well out of the back field which might cause some trouble for inexperienced Buffalo LB's. Only one WR with significant playing time is back (Jeff Moturi) but he's a great one and the offensive line lost 2 players from last season. UTEP defense is going under a complete revamp this season with a new defensive cordinator adding to the 8 returning starters. It's going to be an agressive defense that could cause some trouble for younger teams. Buffalo isn't a team that fits into that category though. UTEP also one of the best kickers in the country in Jose Martinez so if it's a close game down the stretch and you're backing Buffalo it may give you pause for concern. Looking ahead may be a problem for UTEP as the following week they have their big home game against Texas. While backing a team who's historically been awful gives me some worries, I feel the stars are aligned for a great season for Buffalo. UTEP is a team I'll look taking the points on at home versus Texas the following week.

Play: $200 Buffalo -3 -105
 
Vanderbilt at Miami (OH) -3.5
  • Miami averaged 19.2 points a game in 2007 (108th Nationally)
  • Miami returns 8 starters on offense, Miami returns 9 starters on defense
  • Miami has an average QB is back, top 3 RB's gone, a deep group of average WR's, and some question marks on offensive line
  • Miami lead league in sacks last season, and 4th against the run
  • Miami has one of the top linebacker groups in the country
  • Miami had the 25th best passing defense in the country last season
  • Vandy returns 7 defensive starters, 3 offensive
  • Vandy has options at QB/RB with some experience, very little WR experience
  • All 5 Vandy starting lineman & the TE need to be replaced
  • Vandy defense isn't anything special, but defensive backs appear to be solid
Overall, both teams will struggle to score. Vandy because of Miami's solid defense, while Miami is a bit inept on the offensive side (at least until their Freshmen QB takes over). Don't see a ton of points being scored in this game and I give an edge to the home team to cover. Play: $200 Vandy/Miami(OH) under 41 -105


North Carolina State at South Carolina -12.5
-See http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=62119. The line moved with my local from 12 to 12.5 tonight and figured I better pull the trigger before it gets to 13 like it is at Bookmaker.
Play: $300 South Carolina -12.5

 
Lines posted are from my local. Going to be putting in sides later tonight, and will have to wait a bit on totals. Uses scores&odds for most lines, if they don't have a line on something I might get him to use a different book/line from elsewhere as I was doing on some of my Olympic stuff. Waiting for my student loans to come (tomorrow) to deposit at Greek & Bookmaker for the season.
 
Wake Forest -12.5 at Baylor
  • Wake Forest returns 5 offensive starters and and 9 on defense
  • QB Riley Skinner is back looking to do more damage as one of CFB's best
  • RB freshmen of year in ACC Josh Adams is back
  • WR could be a problem, cutting down from 3 to 2 WR sets as experience is lacking, Anquan Boldin's brother is being looked to to pick up slack
  • Very young/inexperienced on offensive line, coach Lobtzke "Looks worse than it is"
  • One of the top kickers in country
  • Defense is loaded, 6th year defensive end Matt Robinson will replace Jeremy Thompson
  • All 3 starting linebackers are 5th year seniors and will compete for all-acc teams
  • Alphonso Smith leads a talented defensive backfield
  • Baylor has a new coach/philosophy (Art Briles)
  • Defensive coordinator was PSU safeties coach
  • Briles will be the offensive coordinator
  • QB is a question mark, last seasons QB is being pushed by a freshmen and a junior transfer
  • Briles runs a 4WR set most of the time
  • Baylor returns 2 of their top 3 RB's, combined though they averaged only 44.6 yards a game last season
  • Last years leading "receiver" was the RB who's gone, but all 8 receivers in terms of stats behind him are back
  • Baylor has decent depth along offensive line
  • Part time kicker last season was 3-8 on fgs with a long of 43 yards
  • Defense is still working between a 4-2-5 and a 4-3-4
  • Linebackers are very strong for Baylor, well as strong as you can get if you're Baylor
I look for Baylor to struggle (big surprise). I feel that in this first game it will be extremely noticable as the coaching may now be in place, but not the quality and kind of talent they need to run their offense and defense. If Baylor wants to go balls out and blitz like crazy I could see them putting a hurty on some of the younger offensive lineman for Wake Forest and causing some turnovers that could turn momentum. When it's said and done though, think it will be another Baylor bottom-feeding season and Wake Forest will be making it a priority to get off to a better start than they did last season.
Play: $250 Wake Forest -12.5
 
Interesting Press Release

Found this while looking at Stanford game from the Pac-10 website. http://www.pac-10.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/082008aaj.html

This Week in Pac-10 Football
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8/20 Football Release
LET THE GAMES BEGIN: The Pac-10 kicks off its 93rd season with a Conference game featuring OREGON STATE at STANFORD on Thu., Aug. 28, continues with seven additional league teams opening Sat., Aug. 30, highlighted by the 101st meeting between Washington and Oregon, and concludes with Tennessee at UCLA from the Rose Bowl in a nationally televised primetime game on Labor Day, Mon., Sep. 1.

PAC-10 NOTES HEADING INTO THE 2008 SEASON:

CURRENT STREAKS HEADING INTO THE SEASON:
Longest overall winning streak: 5 games - USC
Longest Conference-game winning streak: 4 games - USC
Longest home winning streak: 3 games - Oregon State and USC
Longest road winning streak: 2 games - Oregon State and USC
OUT OF OUR LEAGUE: Following a 4-2 showing in post-season bowl games, Pac-10 teams finished the 2007 season with an excellent 25-12 (.676) mark against non-conference opponents.

RETURNING STARTERS: The average Pac-10 team returns 14 starters (out of 24, including kickers), broken down as 6.5 on offense, 6 on defense and 1.5 kickers/punters. Arizona State, Stanford and Washington State return the most with 16, Oregon State the least at 10, followed by UCLA with 11. Among those returnees are 12 first-team and 10 second-team All-Pac-10 performers.

NEW COACHES: Technically, the Pac-10 features two new head coaches in 2008, although Rick Neuheisel can hardly be labeled new to the league. Neuheisel takes over the helm at his alma mater UCLA. He has compiled a record of 66-30 in eight years as a head coach, four at Colorado (1995-98) and four at Washington (1999-2002), and directed teams to seven bowl games during that span. A member of the Rose Bowl Hall of Fame by virtue of leading UCLA to a stunning upset of Illinois in the 1984 Rose Bowl Game, Neuheisel has spent the last three years on the staff of the Baltimore Ravens. . . . Paul Wulff also takes over as head coach at his alma mater, in this case Washington State, moving up after a very successful stint at Eastern Washington. Wulff compiled a record of 53-40 in eight years as head coach at Eastern Washington and was named Big Sky Coach of the Year three times. Wulff was a four-year starter at center for WSU from 1986-89, where he played under Jim Walden, Dennis Erickson and Mike Price.
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<!-- STORY AD ENDS HERE --> ARIZONA:
Wildcats implemented a new spread offense last year (Air Zona) and averaged 308.5 yards per game passing behind QB Willie Tuitama. Tuitama threw a school-record 29 TD passes and the offense improved by 12 points and 130 yards per game over the previous year. That offense welcomes back 10 starters this year. . . . Conversely, only three starters return on defense. . . . Six players who caught at least 20 passes last year return, led by All-Pac-10 WR Mike Thomas, who led the league in receptions with 83 for 1,038 yards and 11 TDs. . . . Senior PK Jason Bondzio nailed 8-of-10 field goal attempts of 40 yards or more last year.

ARIZONA STATE:
Dennis Erickson begins his 20th year as a college head coach. His 158 career victories places him 10th among currently active head coaches. . . . Sun Devils were Pac-10 co-champs with USC last year at 7-2 in league, 10-3 overall. . . . QB Rudy Carpenter has started 31 consecutive games, posting a 21-10 record in those starts. . . . PK Thomas Weber won the Lou Groza Award by connecting on 24 of 25 field goal attempts last year. Pretty good for a freshman. . . . ASU allowed only 12 fourth-quarter points in 12 regular-season games last year and returns seven starters on defense.

CALIFORNIA: Talent, experience and depth at linebacker will prompt the Golden Bears' to line up in a 3-4 defense this year. Experienced senior LBs Zack Follett, Anthony Felder and Worrell Williams are the heart of Cal's defense. . . . Led by All-America C Alex Mack, the Bears return three starters to an offensive line that allowed only 11 QB sacks last year. . . . Cal has been to five consecutive bowl games under coach Jeff Tedford. That marks the first time ever the Bears advanced to a bowl five straight years. . . . Golden Bears never play more than two home or two road games in a row this year.

OREGON: Ducks may have the best cornerback duo in the league in Jairus Byrd, who led the league in interceptions last year with seven, and Walter Thurmond III, who had five picks himself. That duo begins its third year starting and teams with All-Pac-10 rover Patrick Chung, who has made 38 consecutive starts, to give the Ducks a potent secondary. . . . Also back on the defensive unit is All-Conference DE Nick Reed, who led the league with 22.5 tackles for loss, including 12 QB sacks. . . . The Conference schedule is not kind to Oregon this year as the Ducks must travel to expected contenders USC, Arizona State, California and rival Oregon State.

OREGON STATE: Beavers welcome back WR/PR Sammie Stroughter, who missed last year as a medical redshirt. Stroughter led the Pac-10 in receiving yards in 2006 and earned second-team All-America honors as a return specialist for averaging 15.7 yards on punt returns with three brought back for TDs. Add Stroughter to the mix with James Rodgers, who showed explosiveness as both a flanker and running back last year, and the Beavers boast some long distance threats. . . . The bad news on defense is the Beavers must replace the entire starting front seven. The good news is the return of three senior starters to one of the league's best secondaries. . . . Oregon State enters the season having won seven of its last eight games with the lone loss on the road to USC.

STANFORD: Alex Fletcher moves back to center after earning second-team All-Pac-10 honors at guard last year. The veteran Fletcher has 31 career starts. . . . Stanford posted a three-game improvement under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh last season. A similar jump this year would land the Cardinal in a bowl game. . . . S Bo McNally is the leading returning tackler in the Pac-10. McNally posted 114 stops last year, an average of 9.5 per game, and had seven games with double-digit tackles. . . . After home opener against Oregon State, Stanford hits the road for four of its next five games.

UCLA: With both Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan going down with injuries, the Bruins announced JC transfer Kevin Craft will start at quarterback in the season opener against Tennessee. Craft, a junior, passed for 4,231 yards and 44 TDs at Mt. San Antonio College last year and was named California Offensive Player of the Year. . . . No shortage of offensive minds in Westwood with new head coach Rick Neuheisel and highly-acclaimed offensive coordinator Norm Chow on hand. . . . Bruins open the season against ranked teams Tennessee and BYU, but hope transition to new coaching staff will be eased by playing four of first five games at home in the Rose Bowl.

USC: Coach Pete Carroll's winning percentage of .844 (76-14) easily tops the list of currently active head coaches. Carroll's six Pac-10 championships ties him for third place with former Washington coach Don James (1975-1992) for most Conference titles won. Only former Trojan mentors John McKay (9) and Howard Jones (7) have won more Conference football crowns than Carroll. . . . Trojans enter the season having won their final five games last season, capped by a blowout win against Illinois in the Rose Bowl. . . . Trojan defense gave up only nine TD passes last year and has seven starters back, including the safety tandem of All-America FS Taylor Mays and All-Pac-10 SS Kevin Ellison. . . . Trojan O-Line will be young with senior OG Jeff Byers the only returning starter.

WASHINGTON: Dynamic QB Jake Locker earned Pac-10 Freshman of the Year honors last season after accounting for 3,048 yards total offense and 27 TDs. Included were 986 yards rushing, a Conference record for a quarterback. . . . Locker's rushing prowess was one major reason the Huskies finished second in the Pac-10 in rushing offense last year at 203.1 yards per game. . . . Plus the offense averaged 29.2 points per game last year, its best mark since 2002. . . . Does any team have a more challenging early schedule than Washington? The Huskies first three opponents--No. 21 Oregon, No. 16 BYU and No. 4 Oklahoma.

WASHINGTON STATE: New head coach Paul Wulff, a former starting center for Washington State, will have the Cougars in an up-tempo, no-huddle spread offense this season. . . . WSU is expected to utilize a 4-3 on defense. . . . Senior QB Gary Rogers will direct the offense, finally getting his opportunity after backing up record-setting quarterback Alex Brink the last three seasons. . . . All-Pac-10 WR Brandon Gibson led the league in receiving yardage last year and was the only receiver to average more than 100 yards per game (107.3). He had 67 receptions for a school-record 1,180 yards.
 
here we go

bet 1 & 2 of 9,352 this football season... may they all be winners.

There will only be 650-700 or so :pillow:

I have a feeling the amount of my 2H wagers will be decreased significantly this year as the ball and chain will want me to spend some time on the weekends with her. Start classes next Wednesday, so wanted to get some of this done while I could. Once school starts, write-ups will be gone, and I'm using the write-ups to verify everything I know about the teams. Give me 55% winners and a bit higher on my larger wagers and I'll be thrilled.

For people who don't know my style, I don't cap to go 4-0, rather I cap to go 15-8 (you make more that way, but rate of return is obviously less). I'm thinking I'll have around 45 or so wagers opening weekend, then 1H's and 2H's...
 
$50 Stanford +3 v. Oregon State
Having a really tough time with this game. In the end decided to go with the home team pulling off the upset as I think Jim Harbaugh showed he has his team ready to play last season and I can't overlook Oregon State looking for a solid solution at QB, replacing a 1200 yard rusher (albeit some solid options) and replacing their entire front 7 on defense. Stanford returns 7 starters on offense and 9 on defense (might have that number backwards) and will be looking to make a statement that last season wasn't a fluke. The under 49 may end up being a larger pay than the side in this one when all is said and done.
 
Friday Night

$100 Rice -3 -105
Talent isn't there for June Bug. May put up some points, but Rice has the experience returning.

$75 Temple -7 -105
My head is spinning with why I'm playing yet another historically shit team, on the road, as a TD favorite. Army is really that bad though and Temple has the talent coming back.
 
41 on that Vandy under at BM. Too low. These teams sucked it up huge last year and still made it to 37. Commodores had two TOs deep in Redhawk territory including a pick in the EZ. Too dicey with a brand new Vandy defense and a MAC defense (albeit an experienced MAC defense). Wanted mid-high 40s but probably should have known better.

17-17 at end of reg = possible loss in OT
 
Saturday Wagers

12:00pm
$200 Wisconsin -25
$150 Pittsburgh -12.5
$100 Virginia Tech -9.5
Lean Syracuse -12

12:30
$200 Florida -34.5

Eight hours or so was enough for me tonight reading football articles. I'll obviously go through the rest of the card and wager on most of the games, but I'm done for the night and its time for me to put these in.
 
Sitting down getting ready to call these in and is there a favorite I don't like? Christ, I'm way too favorite heavy right now to be comfortable. Hopefully things even out a bit more with the Saturday card or favorites dominate out of the gate.
 
41 on that Vandy under at BM. Too low. These teams sucked it up huge last year and still made it to 37. Commodores had two TOs deep in Redhawk territory including a pick in the EZ. Too dicey with a brand new Vandy defense and a MAC defense (albeit an experienced MAC defense). Wanted mid-high 40s but probably should have known better.

17-17 at end of reg = possible loss in OT

Hope you didn't mind Garf, but I copied your post into this thread as well as I felt it was a good counter-point to my wager.

:shake:
 
Best of luck this year Fondy - lean your way on several.

You have Syracuse -12 as a lean - is that supposed to be NW -12 or Cuse +12?
 
Curious why VTech?

How big of a loss is Lucket being suspended for VTech? Do they have a capable receiving corps? I don't think they'll be able to run against the E Carolina line. I'm wondering how they will generate offense?
 
Yep that's suppose to be NW -12, they came on last year as a pretty solid team, most of the main players return and lets face it Syracuse is dogshit
 
Curious why VTech?

How big of a loss is Lucket being suspended for VTech? Do they have a capable receiving corps? I don't think they'll be able to run against the E Carolina line. I'm wondering how they will generate offense?

Reasons for wager...
  • East Carolina treating non-conference as a measuring stick to prepare them for Conference USA play (reading Skip Holtz's quotes) and get ready to win the conference title, which is their #1 goal. Thus don't think they are anticipating winning or have that mindset they can compete with these top teams.
  • East Carolina needs to replace Chris Johnson
  • East Carolina defensive coordinator Greg Hudson discussing 9 starters returning on defense, "We've got nine starters, but I don't think we've got nine guys who are playing at a true 'starter' level," Hudson said. "We've had nine guys who have started games because of injuries to starters who graduated, but really we've only got six guys I can hang my hat on as full-time starters last year."
  • Split locker room at who should be starting at QB for East Carolina
  • RB rotation for East Carolina, no one to hang their hat on
  • Dwayne Harris being focused on to do too much
  • East Carolina kicker had 7 misses last year from 27, 28, 30, 32, 3, and 37 yards -- not clutch numbers
  • Secondary is a concern for East Carolina
  • Va Tech is a lot like Wisconsin where they can just keep replacing graduating/suspended players
  • Brandon Dillard should have a field day for Va Tech
  • Va Tech has three blue chip redshirt freshmen at WR in Patrick Terry, Danny Coale, and Ervin Garner
  • Ike Whitaker moved from QB to WR this season... Does Victor Harris play offense as well as he does defense?
  • Four of the Five lineman return for Va Tech
  • Games being played in Charlotte, not really a home field advantage for East Carolina
I think the value is on Va Tech under 10 in this one... would I be shocked if East Carolina won straight up? Not really. That said all the intangibles and talent leans Tech's way. See them winning by 14-21 points.
 
E Carolina kicker hurt....couple running backs hurt....and I thiink I read a couple more hurt.

Skip wtf r u doing to me?
 
lookin good.
and by the time we get to monday 9/1, i'm sure there'll be 89 plays made over the course of the long weekend...if not more. ;)
 
good stuff fondy, and BOL this season. should be a great one

i was looking into the badgers being a solid UNDER play for this upcoming season, any thoughts there?
 
I'll be spending most of the night getting the rest of my wagers in. Don't want to get completely waylaid by Bob tomorrow.
 
GL Fondy Im looking at Stanford ML , as well as Mid Ten St ML +6 1/2 Just havent pulled trigger on them yet . BOL
 
2:00pm
$200 Ohio +10.5 (going against a lot of you guys)

3:30pm
$200 Michigan -3 -125
$100 USC -20
$100 Oklahoma State -6.5

4:00pm
$100 Tulsa -14

6:00pm
$100 TCU -6.5
$75 TCU/New Mexico under 42

6:45pm
$300 Mississippi State -7 -130

7:00pm
$200 Northern Illinois +8.5
$200 Southern Miss -10 -115
$150 Florida Atlanta +23 -105
$150 Memphis +8.5
$150 Nebraska +14.5
$150 Kansas State -24
Lean Memphis/Miss Over 56
Lean Louisiana-Monroe +26.5
Lean Florida International +37

7:30pm
$100 Boston College/Kent under 49

8:00pm
$500 Clemson -5 -105$400 California -4 -115

8:30pm
$150 Missouri -9

10:00pm
$100 Idaho/Arizona over 63.5
Lean Washington +14 (could see me still being on Oregon)
Lean UNLV -12
 
Sunday Wagers
$100 Kentucky/Louisville under 59
Lean Colorado State +11

Monday Wagers
$200 Tennessee -7 -120
Lean Rutgers -5

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I'll have write-ups for California and Clemson on Monday evening. If there's any other thoughts you'd like from Saturday let me know. I'm assuming I won't be adding anything else until the day of the games. It's my plan to add first halves shortly before the games start as I've already extended myself further than I feel comfortable with after the joke that was the Olympics. So glad that shit is done. Planning on going out tomorrow to use moneygram for Greek and Bookmaker for 2H's as I'm anticipating I'll be around all day Saturday. No one has had problems depositing in either of those books w/ moneygram lately have they? Saw Bodog wasn't taking them for the time being...
 
Alabama at Clemson Thoughts

  • Alabama has new offensive, defensive, and special team coordinators
  • About 30% of the playbook is new
  • Alabama doesn't have a lot of experienced depth (first game going to need some production from backups)
  • Alabama QB John Parker Wilson struggles in "big games"
  • Alabama doesn't have one big time back, instead have 2 or 3 solid to above average guys. Will need someone to step up and take over the game, which I don't think they have
  • Mike McCoy is only player back from the top 4 receivers for bama. All the other "stars" are true freshmen or disappointing upper classmen
  • Alabama does have a very very solid offensive line
  • Alabama front 7 doesn't strike any fear in me at all, linebackers particularly are extremely weak and inexperienced
  • Alabama has one of the least accomplished punters in the SEC
  • Clemson may have the best 3 players in the game in seniors Harper, Davis, & Kelly (QB, RB, WR)
  • Clemson returns 40 of their top 44 letterman (that number doesn't seem 100% right to me, but across the board they have most of their guys back)
  • QB Cullen Harper set 21 passing records last season at Clemson
  • O-line & linebacker are two areas of concern for Clemson, but o-line is anchored by Thomas Austin at center.
  • Plenty of targets at WR/TE
  • Offensive line was a weak spot last season for Clemson and while most of those starters are gone, they have some very big boys coming back that should work themselves into a quality unit rivalry last seasons, if not a whole lot better
  • On defensive side, out goes Phillip Merling, in comes Da'Quan Bowers (ESPN's #1 incoming freshman)
  • Ricky Sapp starts at other DE, with a pair of 5th year seniors at DT and a very deep and talented rotation
  • Clemson lost top 4 linebackers
  • All 4 db's return though and they led the ACC and were 13th in the country in passing defnese
  • Both teams have solid return men
Overall I think Alabama is going to struggle at the beginning of the year before turning it on and being a title contender in 2009. The defense has too many holes in the front seven that Clemson should be able to take advantage of. I don't feel that Alabama has the playmakers on offense to play from behind or go for quick scores. Doing so will lead to turnovers and a bigger hole. I see Clemson having control of this game from start to finish, but if Clemson is down in the 4th quarter they have the talent on offense to put up some very quick scores.
 
Thursday 1st Halves
$200 Wake Forest -6 -115
$200 South Carolina -7 -120 (bought half)
$100 Buffalo -1.5 -110
$100 Vandy/Miami(oh) under 21 -125 (bought half)

I played both leans for thursday as well, which were mtsu +7 -120 & Stanford U49
 
waiting for a number and to see what develops in this USC game...

you thinking of take a look at them for 2H?
 
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