Fondybadger's Thursday Baseball

[Fondybadger]

I had one of those once a year nights on Wednesday going 9-0. On a 12 game winning streak that will end at anytime. Probably the game that ends the earliest tomorrow. Been getting fairly lucky with these plays as I haven't been a big fan of any of the cards really this week. There's a ton of huge favorites tomorrow and almost all for a good reason. That said, I think it's the day of the dogs on Thursday. I have one play locked in, but I want to talk to a few people with their thoughts on the card before I lock any other games in. I'm very tempted to just lay down a flat amount on every dog tomorrow and expect a 6-6 type day with them. I'm hoping a few more games grow on me so I have some action.

Overall MLB Record 135-86-2 +$3525
Money Line Plays 99-58-1 +$3114
Run Line Plays 12-7 +$973 (14-5 +$1128)
Totals 22-18-1 -$405
Parlays 2-3 -$157
$30,610 in total wagers
$137 average wager

$160 White Sox +115

Game Leans (281-208 +50.19 units)
I'm going to keep track of a pick for every game this season for shits and giggles. These are NOT plays, but are the side I lean as I want to see my pick % for the season.
Marlins +120
Reds -155
Padres +195
Pirates +195
Giants +100
Mariners +255
Rangers +270
White Sox +115
A's -130
Indians +120
Drays +155
Boston +140

GOOD LUCK!!!
:smiley_acbe:​

 

[HUNT]

white sox is my favorite play tomorrow...gl and awesome job fonds.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

excellent wednesday. keep it going today.

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Fondy, with you on the Sox!
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[The Farm]

GL El Fondo

 

[hile75]

gl with the sox fondy

 

[Master P]

:cheers:

 

[STEED]

best of luck fondee-wacker

 

[G-Man]

"King Of Bases" lable I gave you yesterday sure paid off as you were an awesome 9-0 for the day!

GL today.

 

[mogo]

helluva day yesterday! keep up the good work!

 

[Satyr]

GL Nick :cheers:

 

[Unicorn]

Nice sweep last night, GL today!

 

[booger]

'an_horse'

 

[husky17]

keep it up bro.. i love the giants today

 

[Fondybadger]

Looking at the last three games tonight...

Giants at Rockies -119
Couple key things stand out to me in this game. The first is that the Rockies are 1-7 this year when they're facing a lefty, but that is offset with how they play at home with a healthy .280 average and SF's pathetic run support. Lowry has the pitching edge in the game, but his ERA is about 2 runs per game higher on the road and I don't know how he'll hold up in the launching pad. Factor in the Giants bullpen blowing more than a few leads on the road this season and eek.... Also Lowry has a career ERA of 7.5 in 9 starts versus the Rockies. Not something I want to put my money on. In Cook's starts versus the Giants his team is 2-10 in those games, so I'm not recommending the Rockies either. Still slight lean to Giants, but tread with caution if you play it. Kind of like the under in the game and would play it at 10.5, but not something I have interest in either...

Drays at Baltimore -168
Baltimore is beating the teams they should be with an 8-2 record against teams with losing records. The Tampa bullpen is horrid with an ERA of 6+ in road games. Fossum has an ERA between 7-8 on almost all his splits (overall, away, last 3 starts) and isn't someone you can support. Cabrera's been solid at home with the O's going 4-1 in his starts. He has a solid 3.5 ERA and a low 1.2 WHIP, while his career numbers against them are also fantastic. Baltimore is also 16-4 against TB over the last three seasons. I'm going to change my lean in this game from the Drays to Baltimore, and if I decide last minute to make a play it would be a $60-$80 play on Balty.

Boston at Toronto -144
I'm not going to throw stats at you in this game as I don't think they really matter. Both Wake and Roy have solid numbers against each others teams and on the season. Also the career numbers for both are solid. But you can't support a team that's on an 8 game losing streak. It's the best way to lose your money trying to guess when a team is coming out of their slump. I think Roy is going to pitch a monster of the game, but I'm worried he won't get the run support or the bullpen will blow up, especially after the news that BJ Ryan is having Tommy John surgery. I lean towards Toronto, but if I played anything it would be the value on Boston.

 

[husky17]

A couple key things to add Fondy: Todd Helton is out tonight for a scheduled rest day- That takes out a big banger in the rockies lineup..

Also- Bonds has had his most success at coors field, and vs any colorado pitcher, he fares off the best vs. Cook

 

[Timh]

Nice work Fondy.

 

[husky17]

lineup for SF-Colo

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 border=0><TBODY><TR class=colhead><TD width="10%">NO.</TD><TD width="45%">SAN FRANCISCO</TD><TD width="45%">COLORADO</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>1.</TD><TD>R. Winn, CF</TD><TD>J. Carroll, 2B</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>2.</TD><TD>O. Vizquel, SS</TD><TD>T. Tulowitzki, SS</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>3.</TD><TD>R. Aurilia, 3B</TD><TD>M. Holliday, LF</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>4.</TD><TD>B. Bonds, LF</TD><TD>G. Atkins, 3B</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>5.</TD><TD>R. Durham, 2B</TD><TD>J. Baker, 1B</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>6.</TD><TD>R. Klesko, 1B</TD><TD>Y. Torrealba, C</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>7.</TD><TD>B. Molina, C</TD><TD>B. Hawpe, RF</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>8.</TD><TD>F. Lewis, RF</TD><TD>S. Finley, CF</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD>9.</TD><TD>N. Lowry, P</TD><TD>A. Cook, P</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


think this is a nice lineup for SF compared to Colo..


go giants

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck with the play Husky, just gonna get my fix playing cards all night.