Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
I've done fantasy articles and rankings here over the years, and I hope to actively post this year. It's very early, but here is a position overview for the 2014 Fantasy NFL season. I'll provide a breakout player, bust, sleeper and key rookie at each position. Feel free to add your thoughts.
QB:
Overview:
It seems QB has gradually gotten deeper over the years, and this year it's deeper than ever. I'd be happy with any of the top-15 starters. (I currently have Philip Rivers ranked #15.) Manning will be a consensus 1st round pick, and he will be over-drafted. If he goes for 55+ td's again, that would be legendary at his age. Brees and Rogers will likely be gone in round 2. That leaves roughly 12 rock solid QB's to pick from thereafter, and I don't see a huge jump from someone like Matt Ryan (my QB5) and Kap (my QB10). So my plan is to wait as long as possible and grab two top-15 QBs. Maybe waiting as long as rounds 10 or 11...
Breakout Player:
Despite many mechanical flaws, Matt Stafford, is coming off a very good statistical year. DET added Tate and Ebron to take some pressure off Calvin. Bell and Bush are excellent out of the backfield. First-time O coordinator, Lombardi, will bring a system over which will look similar to the Saints. It's crazy that Stafford is still only 26. He has #1 Overall QB upside. I currently have him ranked #4 overall. He's not in the same tier as the top 3, but that could change as we get closer to the season.
Bust:
A yearly top-5 QB, Brady, is listed at QB17 in my rankings. He's coming off a down year with only 25 TD's, and the upside is not there compared to the other younger QBs in 2014. His numbers will be very dependent upon Gronk's health, and there's no way I trust Gronk to be healthy. One thing I look for in older players is gradually declining stats. Brady's completion % and QB rating has decreased over the last 4 seasons. He's still a great real life QB, but a borderline starter in fantasy.
Sleeper:
Eli Manning is coming off maybe the worst season of his career, but that entire Giants offense was decimated by the O-line injuries. They added some bulk up front, and brought in McAdoo to run the offense. McAdoo will bring a Green Bay style system, and utilize the Giants trio of WRs (Cruz, Randle, and Beckham). With a questionable RB corps, Manning should be throwing a lot more this season. I have him currently ranked at QB16, and he should be available very late in drafts as a QB2 with top-10 upside.
Rookie:
This year's rookie QB class is not very good. The only rookie I have ranked is Football Johnny at QB18. The Browns lost Gordon, so they really don't have a deep threat. I'm personally not high on Manziel, but in terms of fantasy, the rushing yards could be there. Shanahan will likely employ a spread option type system that saw RG3 flourish. Manziel is not rG3, but he's probably the only rookie worth drafting in standard leagues as a lottery ticket QB2.
RB:
Overview:
While QB is is deeper than ever, RB is thinner than ever. The consensus top-3 will be McCoy, Charles, and Peterson in various orders. If you have a top-3 pick, it's a no brainer to choose one of them. But after that, the question marks begin. This year features a bunch of unproven 2nd year running backs. If you look over the years, the success rate of 2nd year running backs who excelled as rookies is very variable. Many bust in year 2. So if I don't get a top-3 pick this year, I will not be taking a RB in round 1. I rather get a stud WR or Jimmy Graham, who I know will produce.
Breakout:
Most will say Gio Bernard, but I like Ellington from Arizona due to the lack of competition behind him. Mendenhall is gone now, so that only leaves Taylor and Dwyer behind Ellington. Ellington had a sick 5.5 ypc as a rookie and caught 39 passes, making him a PPR asset. Arians recently stated Ellington will be the bell cow RB. Even if you extrapolate very conservative numbers for him, you're looking at a floor of 1200 total yards, 7+ td's, and 40-50 catches. He's an easy RB2 with RB1 upside in PPR leagues. He could be drafted multiple spots later than Gio, but I currently have them neck and neck at RB12 and RB13 respectively.
Bust:
Matt Forte is showing up as the consensus RB4 in online rankings, and I think that's way too high. He is 28, and he will turn 29 in December. There is an overall downward statistical trend among running backs once they reach 27-28. It's why I have a slight concern about AP, but he may be an anomaly. Forte is coming off a 363 touch season, which raises another red flag. He's never been a big goal-line type back, so even though Mike Bush is gone, it's not a given that Forte's TD's will raise from 9. He's never been a big TD guy over this career.
Sleeper:
Trent Richardson had a miserable 2013. All reports indicated that he simply never picked up on the playbook. Still, he's only 22 and the Colts gave up a 1st round pick to get him. That means they will not give up on him just yet. Donald Brown is gone, Ballard is coming off an injury and Bradshaw's career could be over. Richardson should be the clear cut bell cow back in Indy, who seems persistent on running the ball. He'll likely be drafted between rounds 4 and 6, and he is a prime bounce back who could produce as a RB1. He's a great target if you go WR early.
Rookie:
The Giants run game is a question mark this year, and I like Andre Williams to emerge as the TD leader. The Giants added Jennings, but he is 29 and has never shown the ability to carry a full load. Wilson is coming off a bad injury, and he had fumble issues anyway last season. I see Williams as the clear cut goal line guy in the offense which should score a lot more this year with a new system. Caughlin historically prefers using a 2 back system. Williams could fill that Jacobs/Brown role, and finish with 10TDs.
WR:
Overview:
Since the NFL has transformed into a passing league, top flight WRs have become more valuable because they have been outproducing many of the 1st round RBs. For example, in standard leagues last year, only 5 RBs scored more than Demaryius Thomas. One of those RBs was Moreno, who no one predicted would finish where he did. Predicting the top 10 RBs is almost impossible this year, but the consensus top 6-8 WRs is and has been very stable. So my plan is to go WR in round 1 if I don't land a top-3 RB. In PPR leagues, I would even consider going with two WRs in the first 2 rounds. Calvin (rd 1), Marshall (rd 2), and Ellington (rd 3) is a great start to a PPR team.
Breakout:
Golden Tate has moved to Detroit, and now he will play opposite Calvin Johnson. This offense will continue to throw a ton as they employ an open system similar to what the Saints used. Tate will be a 15 ypc guy, at minimum. I'd expect his catch total to fall at least around 70-80. (Burleson once had a 70 catch year opposite Calvin.) So conservatively, that puts Tate around 1100-1200 yards. Touchdowns are very hard to predict, but he did score 7 in 2012 in a Seahawks offense that was run dominant. 10+ TD's in this system is not out of the question. I currently have him at WR16, and he could rise if Ebron is slow to pick up on the offense.
Bust:
I was pretty shocked to see Desean Jackson at WR11 in the ESPN rankings. They are the most conservative rankings on the planet, but that seemed way too high. Jackson is coming off a career year, but that was more of a product of Chip Kelly's system. Jackson now goes to Washington who already has a 100+ catch guy in Garcon. Plus, Jordan Reed has emerged as a very solid TE who will be used more this year. I simply don't see DeSean getting enough targets to produce big numbers. And this is all assuming RG3 can play a full year. Jackson has never produced double digit TD's in a season. Last season was the first time in his career that he surpassed 62 receptions. I project him for about 60 catches, 950 yrds and 6 TDs, which makes him a WR3. I have him ranked as WR31, just behind Marvin Jones.
Sleeper:
Every year, I check the 3rd year WR list because a few always emerge with huge years. Michael Floyd tops that list this year. He had 112 targets with the addition of Palmer last season. He could slowly start to surpass Fitz's numbers, who's now 30 years old. Assuming his targets rise, Floyd's big time ypc numbers could make him a 1200+ yards guy. He has the size to be a 8-10 td guy, as well.
Rookie:
Cooks from the Saints seems to have the most defined role of all the rookie WRs, and he could be the biggest producer in year 1. Rookie WRs generally don't fare well in year 1, so let someone else reach for Watkins. Cooks will probably be drafted as a WR3 or WR4. Lance Moore is gone, Colston is getting up there in years, and Kenny Stills is still a fairly unproven player. Graham will lead the team in all receiving categories, but Cooks could fill the roll of #2 target for Brees. It's tough to project rookie stats. Lance Moore had some 65+ catch years, and Cooks is much faster than Moore. Cooks could be a 16ypc guy, so he could surpass 1,000 yards as a rookie. Moore had a few 8+ TD seasons, so that's not impossible for Cooks. In college, Cooks ran a bunch of sweep plays, and Sean Payton could devise some running plays with Cooks especially with Sproles gone. The upside is there because the offense is so good.
QB:
Overview:
It seems QB has gradually gotten deeper over the years, and this year it's deeper than ever. I'd be happy with any of the top-15 starters. (I currently have Philip Rivers ranked #15.) Manning will be a consensus 1st round pick, and he will be over-drafted. If he goes for 55+ td's again, that would be legendary at his age. Brees and Rogers will likely be gone in round 2. That leaves roughly 12 rock solid QB's to pick from thereafter, and I don't see a huge jump from someone like Matt Ryan (my QB5) and Kap (my QB10). So my plan is to wait as long as possible and grab two top-15 QBs. Maybe waiting as long as rounds 10 or 11...
Breakout Player:
Despite many mechanical flaws, Matt Stafford, is coming off a very good statistical year. DET added Tate and Ebron to take some pressure off Calvin. Bell and Bush are excellent out of the backfield. First-time O coordinator, Lombardi, will bring a system over which will look similar to the Saints. It's crazy that Stafford is still only 26. He has #1 Overall QB upside. I currently have him ranked #4 overall. He's not in the same tier as the top 3, but that could change as we get closer to the season.
Bust:
A yearly top-5 QB, Brady, is listed at QB17 in my rankings. He's coming off a down year with only 25 TD's, and the upside is not there compared to the other younger QBs in 2014. His numbers will be very dependent upon Gronk's health, and there's no way I trust Gronk to be healthy. One thing I look for in older players is gradually declining stats. Brady's completion % and QB rating has decreased over the last 4 seasons. He's still a great real life QB, but a borderline starter in fantasy.
Sleeper:
Eli Manning is coming off maybe the worst season of his career, but that entire Giants offense was decimated by the O-line injuries. They added some bulk up front, and brought in McAdoo to run the offense. McAdoo will bring a Green Bay style system, and utilize the Giants trio of WRs (Cruz, Randle, and Beckham). With a questionable RB corps, Manning should be throwing a lot more this season. I have him currently ranked at QB16, and he should be available very late in drafts as a QB2 with top-10 upside.
Rookie:
This year's rookie QB class is not very good. The only rookie I have ranked is Football Johnny at QB18. The Browns lost Gordon, so they really don't have a deep threat. I'm personally not high on Manziel, but in terms of fantasy, the rushing yards could be there. Shanahan will likely employ a spread option type system that saw RG3 flourish. Manziel is not rG3, but he's probably the only rookie worth drafting in standard leagues as a lottery ticket QB2.
RB:
Overview:
While QB is is deeper than ever, RB is thinner than ever. The consensus top-3 will be McCoy, Charles, and Peterson in various orders. If you have a top-3 pick, it's a no brainer to choose one of them. But after that, the question marks begin. This year features a bunch of unproven 2nd year running backs. If you look over the years, the success rate of 2nd year running backs who excelled as rookies is very variable. Many bust in year 2. So if I don't get a top-3 pick this year, I will not be taking a RB in round 1. I rather get a stud WR or Jimmy Graham, who I know will produce.
Breakout:
Most will say Gio Bernard, but I like Ellington from Arizona due to the lack of competition behind him. Mendenhall is gone now, so that only leaves Taylor and Dwyer behind Ellington. Ellington had a sick 5.5 ypc as a rookie and caught 39 passes, making him a PPR asset. Arians recently stated Ellington will be the bell cow RB. Even if you extrapolate very conservative numbers for him, you're looking at a floor of 1200 total yards, 7+ td's, and 40-50 catches. He's an easy RB2 with RB1 upside in PPR leagues. He could be drafted multiple spots later than Gio, but I currently have them neck and neck at RB12 and RB13 respectively.
Bust:
Matt Forte is showing up as the consensus RB4 in online rankings, and I think that's way too high. He is 28, and he will turn 29 in December. There is an overall downward statistical trend among running backs once they reach 27-28. It's why I have a slight concern about AP, but he may be an anomaly. Forte is coming off a 363 touch season, which raises another red flag. He's never been a big goal-line type back, so even though Mike Bush is gone, it's not a given that Forte's TD's will raise from 9. He's never been a big TD guy over this career.
Sleeper:
Trent Richardson had a miserable 2013. All reports indicated that he simply never picked up on the playbook. Still, he's only 22 and the Colts gave up a 1st round pick to get him. That means they will not give up on him just yet. Donald Brown is gone, Ballard is coming off an injury and Bradshaw's career could be over. Richardson should be the clear cut bell cow back in Indy, who seems persistent on running the ball. He'll likely be drafted between rounds 4 and 6, and he is a prime bounce back who could produce as a RB1. He's a great target if you go WR early.
Rookie:
The Giants run game is a question mark this year, and I like Andre Williams to emerge as the TD leader. The Giants added Jennings, but he is 29 and has never shown the ability to carry a full load. Wilson is coming off a bad injury, and he had fumble issues anyway last season. I see Williams as the clear cut goal line guy in the offense which should score a lot more this year with a new system. Caughlin historically prefers using a 2 back system. Williams could fill that Jacobs/Brown role, and finish with 10TDs.
WR:
Overview:
Since the NFL has transformed into a passing league, top flight WRs have become more valuable because they have been outproducing many of the 1st round RBs. For example, in standard leagues last year, only 5 RBs scored more than Demaryius Thomas. One of those RBs was Moreno, who no one predicted would finish where he did. Predicting the top 10 RBs is almost impossible this year, but the consensus top 6-8 WRs is and has been very stable. So my plan is to go WR in round 1 if I don't land a top-3 RB. In PPR leagues, I would even consider going with two WRs in the first 2 rounds. Calvin (rd 1), Marshall (rd 2), and Ellington (rd 3) is a great start to a PPR team.
Breakout:
Golden Tate has moved to Detroit, and now he will play opposite Calvin Johnson. This offense will continue to throw a ton as they employ an open system similar to what the Saints used. Tate will be a 15 ypc guy, at minimum. I'd expect his catch total to fall at least around 70-80. (Burleson once had a 70 catch year opposite Calvin.) So conservatively, that puts Tate around 1100-1200 yards. Touchdowns are very hard to predict, but he did score 7 in 2012 in a Seahawks offense that was run dominant. 10+ TD's in this system is not out of the question. I currently have him at WR16, and he could rise if Ebron is slow to pick up on the offense.
Bust:
I was pretty shocked to see Desean Jackson at WR11 in the ESPN rankings. They are the most conservative rankings on the planet, but that seemed way too high. Jackson is coming off a career year, but that was more of a product of Chip Kelly's system. Jackson now goes to Washington who already has a 100+ catch guy in Garcon. Plus, Jordan Reed has emerged as a very solid TE who will be used more this year. I simply don't see DeSean getting enough targets to produce big numbers. And this is all assuming RG3 can play a full year. Jackson has never produced double digit TD's in a season. Last season was the first time in his career that he surpassed 62 receptions. I project him for about 60 catches, 950 yrds and 6 TDs, which makes him a WR3. I have him ranked as WR31, just behind Marvin Jones.
Sleeper:
Every year, I check the 3rd year WR list because a few always emerge with huge years. Michael Floyd tops that list this year. He had 112 targets with the addition of Palmer last season. He could slowly start to surpass Fitz's numbers, who's now 30 years old. Assuming his targets rise, Floyd's big time ypc numbers could make him a 1200+ yards guy. He has the size to be a 8-10 td guy, as well.
Rookie:
Cooks from the Saints seems to have the most defined role of all the rookie WRs, and he could be the biggest producer in year 1. Rookie WRs generally don't fare well in year 1, so let someone else reach for Watkins. Cooks will probably be drafted as a WR3 or WR4. Lance Moore is gone, Colston is getting up there in years, and Kenny Stills is still a fairly unproven player. Graham will lead the team in all receiving categories, but Cooks could fill the roll of #2 target for Brees. It's tough to project rookie stats. Lance Moore had some 65+ catch years, and Cooks is much faster than Moore. Cooks could be a 16ypc guy, so he could surpass 1,000 yards as a rookie. Moore had a few 8+ TD seasons, so that's not impossible for Cooks. In college, Cooks ran a bunch of sweep plays, and Sean Payton could devise some running plays with Cooks especially with Sproles gone. The upside is there because the offense is so good.
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