Fantasy Baseball Keeper Question

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

Opening my keeper league today, have to make my keepers decision in a few weeks. Would like your imput.


I have to keep 5.


Players can be kept for UP TO 2 years and then they get thrown back into the draft.


Players to decide between


Jose Abreu - can be kept for 2 years
Jacoby Ellsbury - can be kept for 2 years
Chris Sale - can be kept for 1 year
Max Scherzer - can be kept for 1 year
Adam Jones - can be kept for 2 years
Josh Donaldson - can be kept for 1 year
Kris Bryant - can be kept for 2 years


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originally I was leaning towards Abreu, Jones, Donaldson, Scherzer and Sale.


Then the Sale injury happened and then I was toying with dropping Jones and Sale for Bryant and Ellsbury but I'm not sure.

 

[orangemonk]

I wouldn't bother with Bryant, you can likely get him back in your draft since he's not a top 60 player. Would keep Abreu, Jones, Max for sure. Probably Donaldson since he's 3B. Probably Sale since he's top tier SP. Only reason for Jacoby would be that 2 year hold but I think the other guys are too good to worry about that.

 

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

yea I love Donaldson in Toronto. A lot.

Jacoby if healthy is great but he can always get hurt. Jones has been consistent, and I don't want to over react on this Sale foot injury

 

[TheHbomb]

Abreu
Sale (foolish to drop him IMO)
Donaldson
Scherzer
Jones

 

[Fondybadger]

I wouldn't bother with Bryant, you can likely get him back in your draft since he's not a top 60 player. Would keep Abreu, Jones, Max for sure. Probably Donaldson since he's 3B. Probably Sale since he's top tier SP. Only reason for Jacoby would be that 2 year hold but I think the other guys are too good to worry about that.

Would agree with everything OM says. If league rules allow it I might try to trade Bryant/Ellsbury/etc for an upgrade or draft picks too.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Abreu, Jones, Max, and Donaldson are no-brainers.

I'd give Ellsbury for two years a long look over Sale for one year. He's got a couple more elite years in the tank, just have to put up with him blowing a tire for a few games to a week every month. But I'm a sucker for hitters.

 

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

I like what Ellsbury can offer...but it's easier to replace an OF than it is an ELITE SP. and having Scherzer and Sale is a big 1-2. But Ellsbury is enticing

 

[Lareux]

I like what Ellsbury can offer...but it's easier to replace an OF than it is an ELITE SP. and having Scherzer and Sale is a big 1-2. But Ellsbury is enticing

He's enticing, but you're right that it's easier to replace an OF than an elite SP. And Tip is right that Jones, Abreu, and Donaldson (for the fielders) are no-brainers. It simply comes down to...would you rather keep Ellsbury over Max or Sale...and you've already answered that question (I think) with your thoughts on the ease of replacement.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

OF may be deeper than elite SP, but Ellsbury's stat contributions (regardless of position) may not be any more easily replaced than Sale's, that's kind of what I look at. I usually find it easier to fill out a pitching staff late in a draft/auction, or on the fly in-season, than to find hitting. Sometimes that blows up in my face, but that's been my approach.

This one's tricky because Ellsbury is not very projectable. He's on the wrong side of 30, gets dinged up a lot, Yanks line-up isn't very good, and we don't know for sure where he's going to bat in the order. But that extra year, that's why I lean Ellsbury. He's still very good. I don't think I want to trade two seasons of Ellsbury for one season of Sale. It's a tough one.

 

[Fondybadger]

OF may be deeper than elite SP, but Ellsbury's stat contributions (regardless of position) may not be any more easily replaced than Sale's, that's kind of what I look at. I usually find it easier to fill out a pitching staff late in a draft/auction, or on the fly in-season, than to find hitting. Sometimes that blows up in my face, but that's been my approach.

This one's tricky because Ellsbury is not very projectable. He's on the wrong side of 30, gets dinged up a lot, Yanks line-up isn't very good, and we don't know for sure where he's going to bat in the order. But that extra year, that's why I lean Ellsbury. He's still very good. I don't think I want to trade two seasons of Ellsbury for one season of Sale. It's a tough one.

It's actually one season of Sale + whoever he drafts that he keeps in 2016 for two seasons of Ellsbury. Can't forget that he'll likely have an update candidate for Ellsbury after this season.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Good point, hadn't really considered the keeper replacement down the road. That might tilt it to Sale. Still think it's close.

 

[Lareux]

It's actually one season of Sale + whoever he drafts that he keeps in 2016 for two seasons of Ellsbury. Can't forget that he'll likely have an update candidate for Ellsbury after this season.

Good point, hadn't really considered the keeper replacement down the road. That might tilt it to Sale. Still think it's close.

It's not really even Sale for 1 vs. Ellsbury for 2 to begin with...it's really just who he wants to keep for this season, since he doesn't HAVE to keep Ellsbury next year simply because he keeps him this year. Obviously, he has the option to keep Ellsbury for 2 years, but like Fondy said (what I bolded) he can find another player from his roster this year to keep instead of Ellsbury next year if he wishes.

 

[Hesnotmypres]

I'd get rid of Ellsbury & Jones.

Yanks & O's going to have down years.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

It's not really even Sale for 1 vs. Ellsbury for 2 to begin with...it's really just who he wants to keep for this season, since he doesn't HAVE to keep Ellsbury next year simply because he keeps him this year. Obviously, he has the option to keep Ellsbury for 2 years, but like Fondy said (what I bolded) he can find another player from his roster this year to keep instead of Ellsbury next year if he wishes.

Even throwing out the keeper aspect and just ranking for this year, it's close. ESPN has Ellsbury #23, Sale #24. One CBS guy has Sale #14, Ellsbury #21, another has Sale #19, Ellsbury #27. Yahoo has Sale #20, Ellsbury #23. Rotowire Sale #24, Ellsbury #34. (And some have Donaldson behind both guys.) Point is, while the consensus gives a slight edge to Sale over Ellsbury in the first few rounds of a fresh, one-season draft, it's close enough to not be a slam dunk. Depends on how you like to build your team, what you think of the depth of the player pool this year, how you gauge the scarcity of particular categories this year. It's close. I usually go with the hitter.

 

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

I'm really torn, a lot of "experts" of twitter who I asked leaned Ellsbury over Sale. Some citing the idea of keeping more offensive players, some citing the injury to his plant foot.

 

[Fondybadger]

Even throwing out the keeper aspect and just ranking for this year, it's close. ESPN has Ellsbury #23, Sale #24. One CBS guy has Sale #14, Ellsbury #21, another has Sale #19, Ellsbury #27. Yahoo has Sale #20, Ellsbury #23. Rotowire Sale #24, Ellsbury #34. (And some have Donaldson behind both guys.) Point is, while the consensus gives a slight edge to Sale over Ellsbury in the first few rounds of a fresh, one-season draft, it's close enough to not be a slam dunk. Depends on how you like to build your team, what you think of the depth of the player pool this year, how you gauge the scarcity of particular categories this year. It's close. I usually go with the hitter.

I'm the exact opposite. Always go pitchers over hitters. Always. /lie

 

[Fondybadger]

I'm really torn, a lot of "experts" of twitter who I asked leaned Ellsbury over Sale. Some citing the idea of keeping more offensive players, some citing the injury to his plant foot.

What draft pick will you in the first round? What are some of the guys you know will be tossed back? Might want to look at letting go Donaldson if you know a 3rd basemen will be there. Or if top pitching is available compared to OF, etc.

And I agree with Tip about hitting first. While our keeper league has some different rules and I got to keep some young pitchers for free of the 8 keepers we can keep I went 7 hitters and a reliever

 

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

I finished in 2nd place, so I'll be drafting 9th

 

[P1NSTR1PEZ]

top guys available will be Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera – 3B Hanley Ramirez – SS Felix Hernandez - SP Dustin Pedroia – 2B Ryan Braun – OF Ian Desmond – 2B Robinson Cano – 2B Albert Pujols – 1B Troy Tulowitzki - SS Jordan Zimmerman – SP Edwin Encarnacion – 1B Evan Longoria – 3B Bryce Harper - OF Justin Verlander – SP Johnny Cueto – SP Yoenis Cespedes – OF Adrian Gonzalez – 1B Ian Kinsler – 2B Cliff Lee - SP Matt Kemp - OF