Fall Thoroughbred Racing, Road to The Cup

R7 #2 should be tough off her great debut win. #3 has never raced on dirt but for Noseda to ship has to be positive. I'm a huge fan of #1 but faces open company today, has to deal with other speeds and being on inside on an off track is no great shakes. #7 owner and trainer are winning every 2YO stakes in sight, had her in debut based on an interview I watched with O'Neill on TVG, of course I didn't have her next out when she won at almost 35-1 :enraged:
 
R8 could go many ways here, looking 4,7,9 but at 20-1 ML I want to find a way to gimmick in #8 who has an excuse in only losing effort.
 
R9 have to think #5 runs better than his last when he had a wide trip, #9 both good efforts in two turf tries, even with post I still like #11 the best who was DQed in last.
 
R10 looks like Belmont horse for course Tonalist's race to lose, I will also use #4 who is 2 for 3 going the 1 1/4 mile distance and owns an off track win.
 
Kee R1: #2 goes turf to dirt, good move for Romans, has a win going two turns and also has a nice effort on a wet track. #6 is a contender but likes to run 2nd. #7 also a contender going turf to dirt. #5 is a price to consider, has trained well on dirt before but yet to race on dirt, going back a couple of years but this used to be a powerful angle for Harty, going synthetic to dirt.
 
Kee R2: #3 will take action at the windows but I'm against as I really think the Iroquois was a very weak race, the fav was a maiden. #5 Asmussen is always dangerous with his 2nd time starting maiden 2 yo's in dirt sprints but over last 5 years he's 4 for 6 when they switch from turf to dirt sprints. #6 a firster for the very talented and very dangerous Larry Jones, is a half to G1 winner Hard Aces. #8 very good trainer with 2nd time starters. My live longshot is #1 (15-1 ML) Wilkes is much better 2nd out than 1st and now adds Lasix.
 
Kee R3 a lot of early speed signed on in here, #8 draws nicely on outside and should get a favorable trip and pace setup as he drops in class a notch.
 
Kee R4: in her debut #3 ran 4th to Songbird who is 3 for 3 and a G1 winner, then ran up the track in next start when blinkers were added, now they are removed and Stidham is 7 for his last 10 when taking blinkers off.
 
Play2win said:
Kee R4: in her debut #3 ran 4th to Songbird who is 3 for 3 and a G1 winner, then ran up the track in next start when blinkers were added, now they are removed and Stidham is 7 for his last 10 when taking blinkers off.
Click to expand...
Worth mentioning #5 (15-1 ML) who is bred to run on dirt, Harty synthetic to dirt again.
 
R6 I'm against #3 who is 4 for 4 at Kee but that's when Kee was synthetic, only 2 for 11 on dirt with 7 2nds, Ward 1 for 19 dirt sprints graded stakes on rest of 44-88 days. #4 and #5 are contenders but seems like a lot of early speeds which could setup for #8 (20-1 ML)
 
Kee R7: Euro's for me #1,3,7

Kee R8: against #1 because race he exits (see R2 #3), #3 is interesting... a Godolphin shipper for trainer that has won a Cup race..#7 and #8 were both impressive Spa winners, also against #12 who was very fortunate to be put up via DQ two back.
 
Hey guys I am capping Belmont and Keeneland today. Can anyone confirm for sure that Belmmont race 2 is off the turf? I can't find it anywhere, but there is turf horses scratched and then the dirt only ones are still showing as eligible.
 
Play2win said:
Bel R1 not a great betting race...1,3,5,6 look like the contenders
#1 is out of great firster sire and trainer is having a solid meet, half to 3 winners but 1ster breaking on rail on off track could be up against it today.
#3 is top selection, a good 2nd in debut vs a contender later today in Champagne, should improve today.
#5 a firster for McLaughlin off a very solid work 9/26, McLaughlin has won with 53% of his dirt firsters over the last 6 months.
#6 is a wild card, treat him as a 1ster as his debut was on turf.
Click to expand...
Bel R1 DD #3/10
 
Play2win said:
R2 the MTO's obviously have to be looked at...#3 looks to be the speed, #8 could be a player early with his speed and likes a wet track, #6 has also run well on wet tracks, #7 is certainly a contender for red hot Jason Servis...#10 may scratch as he's never raced on dirt before, but if he stays in I'm interested, dirt breeding is there as dam is Smuggler and 2nd dam is Inside Information.
Click to expand...
My wish was granted, #10 will run
 
YoungGun11 said:
Hey guys I am capping Belmont and Keeneland today. Can anyone confirm for sure that Belmmont race 2 is off the turf? I can't find it anywhere, but there is turf horses scratched and then the dirt only ones are still showing as eligible.
Click to expand...
off as is R11
 
Kee R9: more Euro's, I like #5 the best...has raced vs some good ones, two back made the lead and looked to be a winner in Group 1...few races back was beaten back to back vs Gleneagles who is currently 7 for 8 and a multiple Group 1 winner, #1 beat 27 others in race two back prior to that was racing vs New Bay who is a solid contender in The Arc tomorrow.
 
Here is my pick 5's. I originally was going to use 1235 and single the 5 on one ticket, but the money on the 3 has me worried.

Belmont
1: 35
2: 1367810
3: 23467 single 7 $120
4: 1267
5: 12456 single 2 $120

Let me know your thoughts lets discuss
 
Kee R10 I'm interested in #10 (10-1 ML) ran 4th in turf race at Kentucky Downs out running odds of 145-1 , now back on dirt. Dirt effort two back at Belterra Park (Cincinnati, OH) was a good one...deuled 3 across the track, looked like a winner
 
Play2win said:
R3 #2 is off a layoff but takes a big class drop, #3 looks to be the main controlling speed and loves Belmont 11-5-3-1, I'm against #4...Trainer is great off the claim but he won't have the setup he needed when winning two back, don't like horses claimed from Jacobson. #7 is Jacobson off the claim going turf to dirt with is a very strong move.
Click to expand...
Bel R3 DD #3,7/5
 
P2win I need some company. Someone to keep me calm buddy. I put in these two tickets.

Keeneland
6:13567
7: 1457911 single 11 $60
8: 4578
9: 14591012 single 5 $60

So if the 5 wins I hit it twice, if the favorite wins I hit it twice. Is there any horses you are thinking I need to hedge on? The payouts vary from $3500 to $16,400
 
YoungGun11 said:
P2win I need some company. Someone to keep me calm buddy. I put in these two tickets.

Keeneland
6:13567
7: 1457911 single 11 $60
8: 4578
9: 14591012 single 5 $60

So if the 5 wins I hit it twice, if the favorite wins I hit it twice. Is there any horses you are thinking I need to hedge on? The payouts vary from $3500 to $16,400
Click to expand...
4 and 13, gl
 
I think the 5 will go off as the favorite and I hopefully can hit it twice. How much do you hedge on a bet like this, I have never really hedged cause usually I am confident as hell. I have the 4, the only one you said I don't have is the 13.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

bones
Phil Bet $1Billion, With a "B"
Replies
11
Views
544
Frank Costanza
Frank Costanza
GameHunter
2024 KENTUCKY DERBY
Replies
7
Views
687
Capaholic
Capaholic
Administrator
****** BetOnline MILLION DOLLAR NFL Score Predictor Contest ******
Replies
1
Views
36
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
GameHunter
Kentucky Derby Preview 2023
Replies
5
Views
4K
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Administrator
Kentucky Derby First and Last Contest -- Win Your Share of $5000.00
Replies
0
Views
121
Administrator
Administrator
Back
Top