Fall Thoroughbred Racing, Road to The Cup

R7 #2 should be tough off her great debut win. #3 has never raced on dirt but for Noseda to ship has to be positive. I'm a huge fan of #1 but faces open company today, has to deal with other speeds and being on inside on an off track is no great shakes. #7 owner and trainer are winning every 2YO stakes in sight, had her in debut based on an interview I watched with O'Neill on TVG, of course I didn't have her next out when she won at almost 35-1 :enraged:
 
R8 could go many ways here, looking 4,7,9 but at 20-1 ML I want to find a way to gimmick in #8 who has an excuse in only losing effort.
 
R9 have to think #5 runs better than his last when he had a wide trip, #9 both good efforts in two turf tries, even with post I still like #11 the best who was DQed in last.
 
R10 looks like Belmont horse for course Tonalist's race to lose, I will also use #4 who is 2 for 3 going the 1 1/4 mile distance and owns an off track win.
 
Kee R1: #2 goes turf to dirt, good move for Romans, has a win going two turns and also has a nice effort on a wet track. #6 is a contender but likes to run 2nd. #7 also a contender going turf to dirt. #5 is a price to consider, has trained well on dirt before but yet to race on dirt, going back a couple of years but this used to be a powerful angle for Harty, going synthetic to dirt.
 
Kee R2: #3 will take action at the windows but I'm against as I really think the Iroquois was a very weak race, the fav was a maiden. #5 Asmussen is always dangerous with his 2nd time starting maiden 2 yo's in dirt sprints but over last 5 years he's 4 for 6 when they switch from turf to dirt sprints. #6 a firster for the very talented and very dangerous Larry Jones, is a half to G1 winner Hard Aces. #8 very good trainer with 2nd time starters. My live longshot is #1 (15-1 ML) Wilkes is much better 2nd out than 1st and now adds Lasix.
 
Kee R3 a lot of early speed signed on in here, #8 draws nicely on outside and should get a favorable trip and pace setup as he drops in class a notch.
 
Kee R4: in her debut #3 ran 4th to Songbird who is 3 for 3 and a G1 winner, then ran up the track in next start when blinkers were added, now they are removed and Stidham is 7 for his last 10 when taking blinkers off.
 
Play2win said:
Kee R4: in her debut #3 ran 4th to Songbird who is 3 for 3 and a G1 winner, then ran up the track in next start when blinkers were added, now they are removed and Stidham is 7 for his last 10 when taking blinkers off.
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Worth mentioning #5 (15-1 ML) who is bred to run on dirt, Harty synthetic to dirt again.
 
R6 I'm against #3 who is 4 for 4 at Kee but that's when Kee was synthetic, only 2 for 11 on dirt with 7 2nds, Ward 1 for 19 dirt sprints graded stakes on rest of 44-88 days. #4 and #5 are contenders but seems like a lot of early speeds which could setup for #8 (20-1 ML)
 
Kee R7: Euro's for me #1,3,7

Kee R8: against #1 because race he exits (see R2 #3), #3 is interesting... a Godolphin shipper for trainer that has won a Cup race..#7 and #8 were both impressive Spa winners, also against #12 who was very fortunate to be put up via DQ two back.
 
Hey guys I am capping Belmont and Keeneland today. Can anyone confirm for sure that Belmmont race 2 is off the turf? I can't find it anywhere, but there is turf horses scratched and then the dirt only ones are still showing as eligible.
 
Play2win said:
Bel R1 not a great betting race...1,3,5,6 look like the contenders
#1 is out of great firster sire and trainer is having a solid meet, half to 3 winners but 1ster breaking on rail on off track could be up against it today.
#3 is top selection, a good 2nd in debut vs a contender later today in Champagne, should improve today.
#5 a firster for McLaughlin off a very solid work 9/26, McLaughlin has won with 53% of his dirt firsters over the last 6 months.
#6 is a wild card, treat him as a 1ster as his debut was on turf.
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Bel R1 DD #3/10
 
Play2win said:
R2 the MTO's obviously have to be looked at...#3 looks to be the speed, #8 could be a player early with his speed and likes a wet track, #6 has also run well on wet tracks, #7 is certainly a contender for red hot Jason Servis...#10 may scratch as he's never raced on dirt before, but if he stays in I'm interested, dirt breeding is there as dam is Smuggler and 2nd dam is Inside Information.
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My wish was granted, #10 will run
 
YoungGun11 said:
Hey guys I am capping Belmont and Keeneland today. Can anyone confirm for sure that Belmmont race 2 is off the turf? I can't find it anywhere, but there is turf horses scratched and then the dirt only ones are still showing as eligible.
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off as is R11
 
Kee R9: more Euro's, I like #5 the best...has raced vs some good ones, two back made the lead and looked to be a winner in Group 1...few races back was beaten back to back vs Gleneagles who is currently 7 for 8 and a multiple Group 1 winner, #1 beat 27 others in race two back prior to that was racing vs New Bay who is a solid contender in The Arc tomorrow.
 
Here is my pick 5's. I originally was going to use 1235 and single the 5 on one ticket, but the money on the 3 has me worried.

Belmont
1: 35
2: 1367810
3: 23467 single 7 $120
4: 1267
5: 12456 single 2 $120

Let me know your thoughts lets discuss
 
Kee R10 I'm interested in #10 (10-1 ML) ran 4th in turf race at Kentucky Downs out running odds of 145-1 , now back on dirt. Dirt effort two back at Belterra Park (Cincinnati, OH) was a good one...deuled 3 across the track, looked like a winner
 
Play2win said:
R3 #2 is off a layoff but takes a big class drop, #3 looks to be the main controlling speed and loves Belmont 11-5-3-1, I'm against #4...Trainer is great off the claim but he won't have the setup he needed when winning two back, don't like horses claimed from Jacobson. #7 is Jacobson off the claim going turf to dirt with is a very strong move.
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Bel R3 DD #3,7/5
 
P2win I need some company. Someone to keep me calm buddy. I put in these two tickets.

Keeneland
6:13567
7: 1457911 single 11 $60
8: 4578
9: 14591012 single 5 $60

So if the 5 wins I hit it twice, if the favorite wins I hit it twice. Is there any horses you are thinking I need to hedge on? The payouts vary from $3500 to $16,400
 
YoungGun11 said:
P2win I need some company. Someone to keep me calm buddy. I put in these two tickets.

Keeneland
6:13567
7: 1457911 single 11 $60
8: 4578
9: 14591012 single 5 $60

So if the 5 wins I hit it twice, if the favorite wins I hit it twice. Is there any horses you are thinking I need to hedge on? The payouts vary from $3500 to $16,400
Click to expand...
4 and 13, gl
 
I think the 5 will go off as the favorite and I hopefully can hit it twice. How much do you hedge on a bet like this, I have never really hedged cause usually I am confident as hell. I have the 4, the only one you said I don't have is the 13.
 
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