European basketball season 2015/2016

moneyprinter

moneyprinter

Pretty much a regular
This thread is for record keeping of my euro bball plays. All lines are from Pinnacle unless otherwise stated. Odds will be in euro format as I live in Europe.
I'm using my own private basketball database for tracking teams ATS records and trends.
I will be monitoring 10 biggest national leagues (ES, FR, DE, IT, TR, GR, IS, BE, PL, LT), 3 regional leagues (VTB, Adriatic, Baltic) and european cups (Euroleague, EuroCup, Eurochallenge).

Full record can be found here.
 
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#4397 FRANCE - LNB: NANTERRE -2.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Nanterre is playing Nancy in 1st round of French league. Nancy has won four last games with Nanterre (three of them in April and May 2015), so Nanterre has a lot to prove (potential revenge game).

I'm going to back home side in season opener against road team that just beat quality opponenet (Strasbourg) in French Cup 1/16 round on Sept. 23rd (potential letdown spot for Nancy).

Also I don't like how the roster of Nancy was constructed for this season. Although they have 5 players under age of 21, the average age of entire team is whopping 32.3. That's a lot. I usually tend to fade such an old teams during eight month long season. This young Nanterre squad should test them tomorrow for the first time.



#2615 GERMANY - BBL: EISBAREN BREMERHAVEN -2 - 1 UNIT (1.95)

Bremerhaven have won only 10 of 34 games last season, barely avoiding relegation (15th place in BBL standings). Frankfurt finished 6th (19-14 record) and made play-offs. This season we should see vastly improved Bremerhaven team though.

Oddsmakers made Bremehaven a small favorite of -2 over solid Frankfurt team. There are at least two reasons for that: new head coach Muli Katzurin who replaced Calvin Oldham and much stronger lineup consisting of 8 US-born players lead by Tyrus Thomas, former 4th overall pick in 2006 NBA draft. Will Fraport really be able to counter Bremerhaven's talented group?
 
Oct. 2nd: 1-1 (-0.07u)

Season: 1-1 (-0.07u)

RUSSIA - VTB: ZENIT ST. PETERSBURG -2 - 1 UNIT (2.00)

Zenit was 11-4 ATS in road games last season in VTB league.
Enisey was 4-11 ATS in home games last season in VTB league.

Zenit (21-9 SU) won both games with Enisey (9-21 SU) last season.

FRANCE: PRO A: CHALONS-REIMS +3 - 1 UNIT (1.97)

Chalons went 2-0 SUATS last season against Pau-Orthez. Chalons won first game on the road by 8 points as +4.5 pts underdog and second game by 10 points as -4.5 favorite.
Both squads are small and young, Chalons has slightly deeper lineup imo. Pau currently has only 8 experienced players under contract and 5 youngsters - all are under 20 years old. Fatigue, foul trouble or injury may have significant influence on the outcome of this game.
 
Oct.3rd: 1-1 (0.00u)

Season YTD: 2-2 (-0,07u)

Three picks for Sunday.

VTB League: BC Kalev/Cramo +7 - 1 unit (1.95)

Both teams have at least 5 returning players from last season. Kalev won both games with Nymburk last season straight up: by 7 points as +5.5 home dog and by 19 points as +7.5 road underdog. Nymburk was just 6-9 ATS at home last year, Kalev went 8-6 ats on the road. The free agent signings Nymburk has made in the summer aren't impressive. And key Czech players: Welsch (35), Benda (33) and Houska (31) are one year older.

Lega A: Varese -5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Varese has new head coach and revamped roster. Varese (12-18) won both games with Juve Caserta (8-22) last year by 4 points. This is home opener for Varese and bad spot for Caserta who has no business in winning this (they play important game with newly promoted to Serie A Torino in next round, while Varese travels to Milan which means certainly a loss). If Varese wants to avoid 0-2 start in Lega A they have to win this game.

BBL: Ludwigsburg -4.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Giessen 49ers, team newly promoted to BBL is 4.5 point home dog to Ludwigsburg team that just won 17 games last season and advanced to play-offs. Giessen doesn't have the budget/payroll to keep up with the big boys, so they signed players from lower german leagues (two guys), exotic leagues like Australia (three players) or unwanted players from weaker bundesliga teams like Crailsheim and Braunschweig (four players). I will be very surprised if Ludwigsburg would have any problems covering this spread.
 
Oct.4th: 1-2 (-1.05u)

Season YTD: 3-4 (-1,12u)

Adriatic League: Igokea +1 (1.90)

Igokea lost to Cedevita in first round of Adriatic League. Cedevita is an Euroleague team so we shouldn't make too much out of this loss. Now Igokea is returning home to play with Ljubljana who beat not so strong Skopje team and oddsmakers made them -3 road favs versus a team that is taller on average (201 cm avg to 199 cm avg) and more experienced (30.8 years old to 23.7). Igokea has now four players over 6'10'' after they just signed ex-national team player Radenovic who was free agent untill yesterday. Take home dog at +1 or on moneyline.
 
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Oct.5th: 1-0 (+.90u)

Season YTD: 4-4 (-0,22u)

ProA: Monaco - Pau-Orthez - Under 151.5 - 1 unit (1.97)

Monaco disappointed in round one against Antibes. Monaco has third biggest payroll in french ProA at 1,9 milion euros and 6th biggest budget overall but lost in home opener to newly promoted Antibes team that has the smallest payroll in ProA at 619.000€. When I look at Monaco roster I see very mediocre players, so those 2 millions were basically wasted. Both Pau and Monaco played fairly slow in first round - Monaco generated only 67 posessions (good for 67 points), Pau generated 72 posessions against Chalons (scored 75 points). Monaco eFG% was at low level of 42%. Pau-Orthez is known for it's stingy defense - they had pretty good DRtg of 91.3 against Chalons (Chalons scored only 66 points). Furthermore Pau-Orthez is on 2-day rest, while Monaco is on 1-day rest. I see this game going under.

ProA: Pau-Lacq-Orhez +5 - 1 unit (1.91)

Pau were underdogs in all 17 road games last season (went 8-9 ATS). Monaco struggled so much in it's ProA debut that it's worth to take a shot at Pau as a road dog. Home side would have to win by 6 to cover - it won't happen if they are going to shoot 34% from the field like they did against Antibes (made just 18 of 52 FG).
 
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Oct. 6th: 0-2 (-2.00u)

Season YTD: 4-6 (-2.22u)

BBL: Mitteldeutscher +8.5 - 1 unit (1.96)

Mitteldeutscher was major disappointment last season - they started season 7-2, then registered two horrible losing streaks of 10 and 6 games. Recently they lost home opener to improved Phoenix Hagen. Mitteldeutscher roster was reshaped and is consisting mostly of young players. Bonn is significantly weaker. I don't see them going 24-10 for the second time. They just lost to Crailsheim as -7.5 road fav. Bonn played so poorly in that game that I think the 8.5 points we're getting today will be enough to cover.

VTB: Nymburk/Kuban Over 152.0 points - 1 unit (1.93)

The total of 152 points for this game seems a little bit too low. Nymburk played well on offense against Kalev on Sunday and Kuban was 18-12 O/U last season.

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Adriatic League: Igokea +6.5 - 1 unit (1.80)

Metalac won only one game out of five they played during last month. Last game between those teams was decided by 3 points. Metalac and Igokea are on similar talent level. Igokea has a really good chance to cover ats against struggling Metalac.

Adriatic League: Sutjeska +11 - 1 unit (1.95)

Ljubljana was 11-4 ATS at home during last season but as double digit favorite went 1-1 (ATS win against very bad Levski Sofia, ATS loss vs mediocre Metalac). Eleven points seems too much and Sutjeska already registered one ATS win as road dog against Tajfun (as +6.5 underdog).
 
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Oct. 7: 2-1-1 (+1.75u)

Season YTD: 6-7-1 (-0.47u)


VTB: Nizhny Novgorod +3 - 1 unit (2.00)
VTB: Nizhny Novgorod/Saratov - Over 169.5 - 1 unit (1.97)

This should be a shootout. In last three games total for game reached 181, 176 and 175 points. Saratov has high octane offense (incredible 14-1 O/U record last season in home games - 93%). They almost beat Khimki in first round on the road. Novgorod has lots of money, so for one more time they signed some quality free agents (Maynor, Rudd). Nizhny Novgorod went 11-4 ATS in road games in VTB league last season. Both teams made it to the play-offs but Novgorod reached semi-final stage. Actually in this matchup we got stronger team in the underdog role.

VTB: Vita Tbilisi +46.5 - 1 unit (1.91)

Eye popping spread was set for this game after Georgian team lost to Volgograd by 43. Line opened at 48.5 and dropped since by 2. It's worth taking a shot at home side as CSKA players are certainly aware of whom they play. This is also potential lookahead spot for CSKA, who will play with Volgograd on Sunday, October 11th.
 
Oct. 8: 2-1 (+0.88u)

Season YTD: 8-8-1 (+0.41u)

ProA: Dijon/Rouen Over 149 points - 1 unit (1.95)

Dijon has started this season very well with two wins versus Orleans (dropped 87 on them) and Le Havre (scored 89 points). Dijon is 2-0 SUATS after first two rounds and 2-0 O/U. Their offense is clicking - they are shooting 60% from the field, making 10.5 3-point shots on average at 42%. This is not sustainable but can serve as an indication of what's going to happen in Rouen. Rouen was 10-7 O/U last season in home games. Currently Rouen's defense is far from perfect (opponents shoot 61% againts them). Last season total in both clashes between those teams went easily over the line of 145.5 (at Rouen) and over 155.5 (at Dijon).
 
Oct. 9: 0-1 (-1u)

Season YTD: 8-9-1 (-0.59u)

ProA: Nanterre -2 - 1 unit (1.95)

Monaco got their first win in ProA and bookmakers made them immediately favorites (!) over Nanterre (line opened at -1, moved to +2). We have newly promoted team in fav role (now small dog) against a team that has won 25 out of 34 games last season and won EuroChallenge (12-3 record). Nanterre is just too good defensively and much more experienced to loose it to a team like Monaco. Nanterre -2.

ProA: Limoges +1.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Both Limoges and Le Mans disappointed in round two - Limoges as home fav in a marquee matchup against Nanterre and Le Mans as small underdog at Chalon. Le Mans players didn't show up for that game. They missed so many easy shots under the basket that I was scratching my head. Perimeter defense is also an issue for them. I don't like how Erman Kunter is coaching his young team - he should be more demanding. Today they are playing an Euroleague team and are -1.5 favorites four days after they lost to Chalon by 18 points. I'm taking the reigning ProA champions at +1.5.

Adriatic League: Igokea -5.5 -1 unit (1.91)

Igokea players are slowly buying into coach Lukajic system and with each game they should be playing better. Both Partizan and Igokea played versus Metealac on the road - Partizan won by 3 points, while Igokea won by 18 points. I think Igokea is able to cover the spread of -5.5 points at home. Last year they beat Partizan at home by 6 and this season Partizan has significantly worse team, while Igokea greatly improved. Igokea -5.5.
 
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Oct. 10: 2-1 (+0.86u)

Season YTD: 10-10-1 (+0.27u)

Lega A: Bologna +7.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Enel Brindisi is coming off surprising loss at Pistoia, while Bologna beat solid Venezia at home. This may indicate that Enel isn't that good this season and Bologna is undervalued. In fact they never were afraid of playing with Enel (Bologna defeted them 4 times in last 5 games). Enel will be looking for a bounce back win, while for Bologna this game may be a letdown spot after nice win over Venezia. That's why we're getting +7.5 points. Bologna has a sligthly taller squad (201cm to 196cm) and is more experienced as a team but not too old (28.8 years old on avg to Enel's 26.2). I'm taking the points - Bologna +7.5.

VTB: Astana +14.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Kuban is coming off a road loss to Nymburk. For Astana it is first game of the season. It's hard to tell how Astana is going to perform but Lokomotiv players are clearly far from top form. Kuban signed some big name free agents during the summer (Draper, Claver, Fesenko) but in that game against Nymburk they played some sloppy basketball (ie. Draper was 1 of 6 from the field). Astana likes to run and shoot 3's - this will certainly help them to stay in that game. Astana +14.5.

ACB: Valencia +9.5 - 1 unit (1.86)

This may look a little bit too risky but it's worth taking a shot. Real players are clearly tired after Eurobasket (Real send five players). After Eurobasket Madrid played 2 games back-to-back with Bauru in Intercontinental Cup, then in semifinals of Copa Del Rey lost by 15 to Malaga and just three days ago played with Boston Celtics (another loss by 15). Real will be on 2 day rest, while Valencia will be on 6 day rest. Last season Real defeted Valencia easily two times but when those teams met in the play-offs only one game (out of four) was decided by 10 points. In the off-season Real decided to not resign Rivers and Slaughter, key defensive players - this may hurt them this year. Valencia (because of it's style of play) is one of the few teams that can go neck-to-neck with such a powerhouse as Real. Valencia +9.5.
 
Adriatic League: Krka +6 - 1 unit (1.95)

In 2014 and 2015 Krka played with Ljubljana 14 times and lost only one game by more than 6 points. They won 9 of 14. This should be also a close one. Line moved from -5.5 to 6 which means that home side would have to win by 7 with it's biggest rival. Olimpija is not playing well right now - they are 0-2 SUATS in last 2 games in ABA League.
 
Oct. 11: 1-3 (-2.14u)

Season YTD: 11-13-1 (-1.87u)

Lega A: Banco di Sardegna Sassari -1.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Cantu has completely re-shaped rooster - no Odom, no Feldeine, no Metta World Peace. Unfortunately for them it is not looking good. Who's going to stop Petaway and Alexander? Very short bench is also a problem. Cantu is coming off a loss to Capo D'Orlando, a team that has won just 10 games last season. This may serve as an indication of how bad Cantu can be this year. Sassari looks very tempting as a small fav. Sassari -1.5.

Adriatic League: Metalac/Cibona Under 144.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Metalac and Cibona have serious problems when it comes to scoring. What's interesting both teams started the season 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Metalac is 0-2 O/U at home and 0-2 O/U as home favorite. In first 2 home games Metalac scored 67 and 56 points. Cibona scored in it's first 2 road games 67 and 73 points. Pick: Under 144.5 points.

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VTB: Vita Tbilisi +47.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

For the second time this season I'm taking a shot at Vita as huge ugly dog. Four days ago Vita covered against CSKA as +48.5 hume underdog. Now they travel to Moscow for another good old fashioned ass spanking. Line opened at -42.5, moved to 47.5 (currently at Pinnacle). Best of luck. Vita Tbilisi +47.5.
 
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Oct. 12: 3-0 (+2.81u)

Season YTD: 14-13-1 (+0.94u)

EuroCup: Gran Canaria -3.5 - unit (1.93)

Oddmakers were very generous when made Gran Canaria only -3 favorite over Le Mans (line is now at -3.5). I'm going to auto fade Le Mans until I see them playing well. Gran Canaria made it to the EuroCup Finals last year. They were one of the best ATS bets last year in EuroCup, going 7-1 ATS in road games during group stage and 10-2 ATS in all road games. Gran Canaria -3.5.

ProA: Olympique Antibes +2 - 1 unit (1.95)

I'm really impressed with the improvements Orleans have made in offseason. Team that won only 10 games last season and was horrible against the spread (11-23 ATS) now has a really nice roster. Antibes, promoted to ProA is even greater surprise - in first round they dismantled Monaco, in second lost to a very good Strasbourg by only 9 points. The talent is definitely there. As a home dog Antibes has slighly better chance to cover. Antibes +2.

Adriatic League: Sutjeska Nikisic +7.5 - 2 units (1.92)

Partizan is struggling mightily right now in ABA - they are 1-3 SUATS in L4. Their offense is paltry (64.7 pts per gm., ORtg around 90). They are 0-1 ATS at home, 0-1 ATS as fav, 0-2 ATS after a loss. Peter Bozic is desperately shuffling rotation and looking for the right combination. Kosta Perovic is playing only 10 min. on average, having almost no positive impact on his team. If this game was played on neutral venue Partizan would be a +5.5 underdog. Adjusted for home court advantage Partizan should be a +2.5 dog. Line opened at -4.5 though and was pushed by square bettors to -7.5. We have now a public team that lost three straight in a role of favorite over Nikisic who is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in last four games. Visitors from Montenegro are 2-0 ATS in away games and 2-0 ATS as away underdog. This is a 2 unit play on Sutjeska Nikisic +7.5.
 
Gran Canaria -3.5 - W
Antibes +2 - W
Nikisic +7.5 - L

Oct. 13: 2-1 (-0.12u)

Season YTD: 16-14-1 (+0.82u)

PLK: Turów Zgorzelec -1 - 1 unit (2.01)

Turów is in a bounceback spot after tough lost at Torun. Zgorzelec isn't that bad as some may think after that initial loss. Harris and Tatum were limited to 16 min. playing time and I'm expecting to see more of them next time. This team won 23 of 30 games last season (31-11 including play-offs). Zgorzelec won comfortably both games with Gdynia last year by 16 and 8. Both teams are very young: Gdynia - 21.5 yrs old on avg, Zgorzelec - 23.4. Gdynia though has only 2 players on it's roster older than 22, while Zgorzelec has 7 such players, some have national team experience. Line of -1 is a gift (in previous season Zgorzelec was favored by -8.5 pts at Gdynia and by -18.5 at home). Zgorzelec -1.

Eurocup: Trento -3 - unit (1.98)

Trento deserves to be a fav in this game. They started the season with 2 huge wins against Milano and Cremona. After wining 19 games in last year campaign, Trento will play in EuroCup for the first time and I'm not expecting any letdowns. Trento has a smart, crafty playmaker in Giuseppe Poeta and three good shooters (Wright, Sanders, Lockett). Ljubljana doesn't have players that skilled but they are always dangerous at home, so this game might be a close one. Trento -3.

Eurocup: Aris +7 - 1 unit (1.91)

How great was previous season for Tranzonspor. They have almost won Eurochallenge (lost to Nanterre in final by 1 point) and then advanced to semi-finals of TBL. And how bad was for them the beginning of this season - Trabzonspor was crushed in their home opener by Galatasaray as one point fav (58:80). Atmosphere in Trabzonspor locker room must have been really bad after Saturday loss. I'm not sure what is the biggest issue for them right now but I think it is a good idea to fade a struggling team playing on the road in Greece. I'm not going to lay 7 points. Aris +7.

I may add some plays before tomorrow's Eurocup games.
 
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Eurocup: Banvitspor -1 - 1 unit (1.93)

Banvit and Podgorica played twice this year in Eurocup. Banvit won both games (by 6 away and by 13 at home). Banvit signed some good free agents and it's roster is looking really good. They are well rested becuase their first game in turkish league was cancelled after recent terrorist attack. Banvit like Buducnost won 4 of last 5 games. The difference is: Buducnost played mostly with inferior teams (lost by 21 to Crvena Zvezda - only quality team they played). During it's preseason preparations Banvit played almost exclusively with strong opponents - CSKA Moscow, Galatasaray, TED Kolejliler, Pinar. They defeted all of them and lost only once with Efes (by 5 points). Banvit is probably stronger than last season when they were an underdog of +8 on the road at Podgorica and won that game straight up. Banvit -1.

Eurocup: Spirou Charleroi +12.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

It seems that each season Zaragoza has a very strong lineup full of talented, tall players but when it comes to winning games, achieving season goals or simply covering the spreads they fail miserably. Zaragoza already lost 3 games - last one against Barcelona and two preseason with Bilbao and Valencia. They were disappointing last year in EuroCup (6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS; 3-5 ATS at home). They were very bad especially in the role of favorite (3-8 ATS as fav). Charleroi won it's first 3 games in Ethias League and their offence is looking pretty good (Charleroi scored in it's games 75, 87, 92 points). Charleroi +12.5.
 
Zgorzelec -1 - L
Trento -3 - L
Aris +7 - W
Charleroi +12.5 - W
Banvit -1 - L

Oct. 14: 2-3 (-1.17u)

Season YTD: 18-17-1 (-0.35u)


Euroleague: Strasbourg +6 - 1 unit (1.95)

French team was one of the best ATS bets last season (in road games). Strasbourg was 20-9 ATS on the road last season (in ProA and EuroCup combined). They defeted many good teams like Bamberg, Bonn, Reggio Emilia, Zaragoza or Kazan. Strasbourg was also 5-1 ATS as an underdog last season in EuroCup. Getting Strasbourg in an underdog role is both rare and valuable. Strasbourg +6.

Euroleague: Sassari +7 - 1 unit (1.97)

Darussafaka didn't play in any level of european cups last season, yet this team is favored over Sassari which played in Euroleague last season. Sassari won only 3 games and was not good but went 4-4 ATS in road games and 6-4 ATS as underdog. Sassari is known for its offensive style of play - it will allow them to keep up with Darussafaka and cover the spread that seems a little too big. Sassari +7.

Euroleague: Bamberg +9.5 - 1 unit (1.92)

Malaga was bad against the spread in Euroleague last season: 4-8 ATS at home, 2-7 ATS as favorite. Malaga had never defeted Bamberg by more than 4 points (played with german team 6 times). Opening spread seems way too big. Bamberg is BBL reigning champion. In previous Euroleague season Malaga played with Alba Berlin and failed to cover in both games (as -9.5 and -1.5 fav.). Bamberg is basically on the same talent level as Berlin. Bamberg +9.5.
 
Strasbourg +6 - L
Sassari +7 - L
Bamberg +9.5 - W

Oct. 15: 1-2 (-1.08u)

Season YTD: 19-19-1 (-1.43u)
 
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ABA: Tajfun Sentjur +7.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Tajfun is a small basketball club with roster full of 'no names' found in the most obscure and forgotten places in the Balkans. But those players are also quite tall and strong. They beat Cibona and Krka, lost to Buducnost but not by such a big margin as Zadar have lost. They are also much more older and experienced than Zadar players (27.2 yrs old on avg. to 22.4 yrs old on avg.). Zadar lost 4 of last 5 games and today they are big favorite. Tajfun Sentjur +7.5.

ProA: Olympique Antibes +12 - 1 unit (1.93)

Lyon-Villeurbanne is 2-1 ATS this season in ProA. Last year they were 12-7 ATS as favorite and 2-2 as double digit fav. Sharks are perfect 3-0 ATS, 2-0 ATS as underdog. A week ago Antibes covered as double digit dog (+10.5) vs Strasbourg on the road. This result proves they are legit ProA team. Their defense is surprisingly good - Monaco scored ony 67 points against them, Strasbourg scored 71 and Orleans 64. For ASVEL it won't be an easy win. Antibes +12.

ProA: Rouen +1.5 - 1 unit (1.96)

Le Mans started the season very bad - with losses to Gravelines and Dijon. The day after the loss to Gran Canaria in EuroCup Le Mans released SG Westrol. Now they travel to Rouen after short 2 day rest to play Rouen who had full week to prepare for this game. Rouen won both games with Le Mans last season. Rouen +1.5.

Euroleague: Laboral Kutxa +3 - 1 unit (1.98)

Tough spot for visitors from Baskonia - to play on the road in Euroleague's home opener against an old rival Milan. But the bigger expectations and pressure will be on the home side. Milan (9-15 SU) was just 4-8 ATS in home games in Euroleague last season. A win in Milan would be very precious for Laboral as they will be playing Olympiacos in the next round. Vitoria +3.
 
Sentjur +7.5 - W
Antibes +12 - L
Vitoria +3 - W
Rouen +1.5 - L

Oct. 16: 2-2 (-0.08u)

Season YTD: 21-21-1 (-1.51u)
 
A1 - Aries Trikala -4 - 1 unit (1.93)

Most of Kavala players aren't on Greek league talent level - Kostov who came from Austrian league (Gussing) and Kemp who played in D-League are the only valuable signings Kavalas have made. Both teams won their first games. Trikala has much deeper roster and is playing on home curt. Kavala is lacking experience (it's their 1st season in Greek A1). Trikala -4.

TBL - Turk Telekom - +10 - 1 unit (1.87)

Pinar defeted Barcelona in Euroleague - that is certainly one of the biggest achievements in that club history. But that happened just two days ago and Pinar players might feel a little bit tired after a hard fought win. Turk Telekom didn't signed any big names but the players they have on roster are solid and with right attitude they should be able to cover double digit spread versus a team in letdown spot. Turk Telekom +10.

ProA: Nancy/Chalon Under 158.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Nancy is 3-0 O/U in last three games in ProA. Chalon is 2-1 O/U in it's first three games. In prevoius Nancy games total for full game was at the level of 153.5-154.5 points. For todays game total opened at 157 and moved to 158.5. That is too big number. Last season both games between Nancy and Chalon went under the posted total. Nancy is 0-3 SU and ATS in L3 (in ProA) which may indicate that Nancy players are not playing hard enough. I'm expecting them to tighten the defence as they are still looking for their first win. Under 158.5

A1: AE Nea Kifissia +8 - 1 unit (1.95)

Last year Kifissia was +5.5 underdog at Thessaloniki and did not cover. This year they got +8 points and are playing versus a PAOK that is on short two day rest after EuroCup game against Szolnoki Olaj. In that last game PAOK quickly build big lead but didn't cover. PAOK is a veteran team with 7 (!) players over the age of 30 (oldest of them is 39 years old). They play very slow tempo basketball, a combination of half court ofence and a physical defense that aims to wear oposing teams down. Last season PAOK was 5-7 ATS at home, while Kifissia was 8-5 ATS on the road. Both teams have returning head coaches. If Kifissia play it smart, they will be able to cover posted spread. Kifissia +8.
 
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BBL: Giessen +5.5 - 1 unit (1.91)

For the first time this season Hagen will be a favorite when they play Giessen, team newly promoted to German league. Giessen made a big surprise when they won with Bamberg a week ago 81:80 (Bamberg as -17.5 fav was in lookahead spot before their Euroleague game with Malaga). Giessen also defeted Wurzburg and lost by 7 points to strong looking Ludwigsburg. Hagen won just 10 games last season and they were horrible against the spread at home (5-11 ATS) and as favorite (2-5 ATS). Giessen +5.5.
 
Trikala -4 - W
Nancy/Chalon Under 158.5 - L
Turk Telekom +10 - L
Kifissia +8 - W
Giessen +5.5 - W

Oct. 17: 3-2 (+0.79u)

Season YTD: 24-23-1 (-0.72u)
 
LegaA: Trento -6 - 1 unit (1.95)

Pistoia started the season with two wins but now they travel to Trento, the team that beat them by 14 points last season and was 10-5 ATS at home. Scoring shouldn't be a problem for home team but the defense, especially rebounding may be a concern. This was main reason Trento lost it's EuroCup game against Ljubljana. If Trento gets some defensive stops, they should build a lead and cover. Trento -6.

LegaA: Torino/Venezia Over 151 - 1 unit (1.92)

Torino first LegaA game against Reggio Emilia went over and I'm expecting to see similar result today. It will take some time for Torino to adjust to LegaA agressive style of play. And at some point during the season this struggling Venezia team (0-3 ATS in all games played up to date) is going to find it's playing rythm. Torino is a perfect place to start over. Over 151 points total.

PLK: Ostrów Wielkopolski + 9.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Ostrow is returning to Polish basketball league after couple of years of absence. They won season opener on the road vs Lublin as +1.5 small underdog. Now Ostrów Wielkopolski supporters will have a chance to celebrate team comeback to PLK at home. For away team it means trouble covering especially after bookmakers installed them as almost double digit road favorites. This game should be a revival of an old rivalry from the late 90's and I don't see it ending in a blowout. Ostrow Wielkopolski +9.5.

ACB: Gran Canaria +5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Bilbao was 13-4 ATS in home games last season. They defeted Gran Canaria twice, so for away team it should be a revenge game. On Wednesday Bilbao failed to cover in EuroCup game against Nanterre as -8.5 home fav, which may indicate that Bilbao is not yet ready to compete against quality opponents. This should be a close one. Gran Canaria +5.

I will have one more play in ACB later on, waiting for line to move.
 
Adding:

ACB: Gipuzkoa +14 - 1 unit (1.92)

Last season Real Madrid was one of the worst road bets in all major pro european leagues. As a big public team and true powerhouse they went 4-13 ATS in road games in ACB (5-16 ATS including play-offs). It is only beginning of the season but Real Madrid players already look tired after Eurobasket and exhibition games against Celtics and Bauru. Real suffered three consequtive losess in Copa Del Rey, Liga Endesa and Euroleague. Today - as usual - they are big public road fav. Gipuzkoa +14.
 
Good stuff moneyprinter. Is there a specific site where I can find ATS and O/U stats, or do you keep these on your own?
 
hugh613 said:
Good stuff moneyprinter. Is there a specific site where I can find ATS and O/U stats, or do you keep these on your own?
Click to expand...

All ATS and O/U records posted in this thread are from my personal database I'm constantly updating and managing. It will be awesome if a website dedicated to pro b-ball in Europe existed but it looks like nobody cares. Shame because tons of value can be found for smart bettors.

Here's an example of team page from my database. As you can see there are very useful splits like fav/dog, home/away, after win/after loss, competition type etc.



And leagues I'm monitoring:

 
Wow, that looks great! I don't get involved with Euro baskets too often, but like you said, it's next to impossible to find out even the simplest things like the opening line, ATS numbers, etc... (I usually just go on the prediction sites to see how much the lines have moved, and they usually seem to move a lot). The statistics page on Betfair has O/U numbers, but it's not well organized.

Maybe something to think about for yourself in the future if you know website design, database, etc... Wouldn't hurt to get a return, even a small one, for all your hard work.

Good luck!
 
At some point I will probably have a some kind of website but I'm not really interested in becoming a tout. I just want to be a winning bettor, thats all. I also don't mind posting info from my database for free. If English was my native language I would have my own podcast on spreaker like other handicappers. I was learning English long time ago in high school, still remember some vocabulary but forgot the grammar rules lol. Writing short write-up's is a pain in the a** for me.

Managing database also takes a lot of time - manual input of scores and opening lines takes at least two hours daily (yeah I still not figured out makros). This is a project that should be managed by 3-4 people. I was trying to invite some people to my project (on other betting boards) but nobody was interested. Majority of bettors in Europe who bet on basketball don't take into account ats trends, spots, psychology, advanced stats or analytics. They're loosing bettors in long term. And outside of Europe nobody cares about euro bball and thats make a perfect sense - as it's not as sexy as NBA. The difference though is it's hard to find value while betting on NBA because everyone is wagering on it and the lines are super sharp and hard to beat, while value can be easily found on games played in some obscure European leagues.
 
moneyprinter said:
At some point I will probably have a some kind of website but I'm not really interested in becoming a tout. I just want to be a winning bettor, thats all. I also don't mind posting info from my database for free. If English was my native language I would have my own podcast on spreaker like other handicappers. I was learning English long time ago in high school, still remember some vocabulary but forgot the grammar rules lol. Writing short write-up's is a pain in the a** for me.

Managing database also takes a lot of time - manual input of scores and opening lines takes at least two hours daily (yeah I still not figured out makros). This is a project that should be managed by 3-4 people. I was trying to invite some people to my project (on other betting boards) but nobody was interested. Majority of bettors in Europe who bet on basketball don't take into account ats trends, spots, psychology, advanced stats or analytics. They're loosing bettors in long term. And outside of Europe nobody cares about euro bball and thats make a perfect sense - as it's not as sexy as NBA. The difference though is it's hard to find value while betting on NBA because everyone is wagering on it and the lines are super sharp and hard to beat, while value can be easily found on games played in some obscure European leagues.
Click to expand...
Same applies to soccer - people here bet the English Premier League almost exclusively and look down on everything else, even though there's much more value and profit to be found in the less glamorous leagues.

Anyways, your work is appreciated, and don't worry about grammar, etc... The way I always look at it, if you manage to inform even just one person and get them interested, then you've succeeded.

:shake:
 
I forgot about one website that publishes projections for US sports and global markets but membership costs 30$ (and currently they aren't accepting any new members). Sometimes they release their projections for free on Twitter. I like what they're doing - the main problem I have with this kind of automated handicapping is they are using previous results for projecting what is going to happen in the future - that doesn't take into account team's strength of schedule and various kinds of spots the teams are in during a nine month long season. Those estimations sometimes hit, sometimes miss. They look like this:



Those kind of projections are based strictly on numbers, while I'm still subjectively looking at spots, elements of rivalry, history, trends and lines. Lines are especially interesting but not because of how they are fluctuating after going public. Rather than that I compare opening lines with the lines that were posted in the the previous season or in selected team's previous games. I'm looking for a significant changes, values, any indications of what may happen or because I'm simply curious how oddsmakers are perceiving selected teams or games.
For example - I see a team in certain situation that is favored by, let's say -7.5 points at home against a team on certain level (roster strenght, budget, whatever), so I check my database and see that during a season that team in home games wasn't favored by so many points against any other team on comparable talent level. Oddsmakers or bettors overvalued them, because favored team just defeated other good team or big public team. I consider this kind of data as very valuable. Combined with other information bites it may produce plays that hit at a very high rate - much higher than 60%. All the rest is just discipline and bankroll management.

Opening lines and line movements for euro bball can be found on cappedin.
 
Nice reading your thoughts !
I've been betting some european bb lately but mostly reading other's thoughts and drawing my own conclusion and taking into account injuries.
Was wondering how do you narrow your selections down to 4 games in such busy weekend days.
droppingodds shows line movements from pinnacle
 
For example Avellino will probably miss their starting pg tomorrow so I'll be looking to take something on Milano or maybe a tt under. Thoughts ?
 
betman4ever said:
For example Avellino will probably miss their starting pg tomorrow so I'll be looking to take something on Milano or maybe a tt under. Thoughts ?
Click to expand...

Definitely Milan at -4.5 is worth a shot. In the morning Milan will be favored by -5 or more. Avellino started the season 0-2 ATS and last season they weren't good ats - they had two stretches of four consecutive ATS losses but they also got two stretches of 3 consecutive ATS wins (typical hot/cold streak team). Avellino is unpredictable like Milan - they defeated Milano last season by 4 points as +6.5 home underdog. It's impossible to predict when exactly Milan players are going to show up - on Monday or on Thursday. There's a risk that some of them will not play hard enough because they have a game to play in Euroleague against Efes on Thursday (lookahead spot). The spread isn't big so Avellino is in real danger of not covering. All four Avellino main rotation guards are 32 years old except Green who's 29. Milan likes to play fast and push the tempo up. This is a bad sign for Avellino, especially if they have health issues. Avellino is also looking very thin on F positions. They have bunch of no names behind Nunnally and Leunen (well, maybe except Buva) - the faster Milan wears them down, the sooner they will be able to preserve a victory (and cover for us). This will be my official play.

Lega A: Milano -4.5 - 1 unit (1,90)
 
betman4ever said:
Nice reading your thoughts !
I've been betting some european bb lately but mostly reading other's thoughts and drawing my own conclusion and taking into account injuries.
Was wondering how do you narrow your selections down to 4 games in such busy weekend days.
droppingodds shows line movements from pinnacle
Click to expand...

Picking the right plays and narrowing the selection is really not an easy task. Although I have that nice database I still make some rookie mistakes, even after all those years of betting.

I'm trying to look at the lines as soon as they are released. I write down the numbers in my notebook (later on I input that numbers into my spreadsheets). Some of the lines I like immediately - I mark them and those are my 'very early leans' - usually they are not yet deeply analyzed - they are potential plays. But then I'm confronting them with my database and all available information I have access to. If they made it through the process, they become the official plays. If the line is dropping, I lock them right away. If there's no line/odds drop I wait till game day and then lock them. I think optimal number of plays is somewhere around 3. On Tuesdays (Eurocup) and during weekends (lots of games in domestic leagues) that number usually increases to 3-5.
I think it is a good idea to distinct early leans from 'no bets' - there is plenty of those - so called - 'coin tosses' on board each week. Some kind of star rating for leans is also a nice idea but I'm too lazy for that. It is also a good idea to specialize in selected leagues - it helps to narrow the number of picks, which is always a good thing.
 
Looking at Cibona's page you posted from your database, they signed Florence and the Slovenian national team player this past week. I remember I kept successfully betting, at some Croatian guy's suggestion, unders and tt unders on Zadar after Florence left the team. Can we expect a faster play or increase in Cibona's offense output now ?
 
betman4ever said:
Looking at Cibona's page you posted from your database, they signed Florence and the Slovenian national team player this past week. I remember I kept successfully betting, at some Croatian guy's suggestion, unders and tt unders on Zadar after Florence left the team. Can we expect a faster play or increase in Cibona's offense output now ?
Click to expand...

I watched parts of recent Cibona game with Partizan and was stunned how slow they played. Especially in road games TT under makes a lot of sense, at home Cibona scores a little more. I don't know - we will have to give Florence and Cibona some time to adjust but in longer perspective of weeks ABA teams refine their offenses and score a lot more and on higher percentage (at least those which are coached properly).

Look at Florence stats from his playing time in Paris, they look horrible - guy is either out of shape or played with an injury. I'm not surprised he lost his job. I don't think he is regressing, he's only 27 years old. It must be some sort of health issues. I would be reluctant to put my money on him right now.

 
Very bad Sunday - Trento lay an egg and dogs didn't bark.

Trento -6 - L
Torino/Venezia Over 151 - L
Ostrów +9.5 - L
Gran Canaria +5 - W
Gipuzkoa +14 - L

Oct. 18: 1-4 (-3.07u)

Season YTD: 25-27-1 (-3.79u)

A1 - Olympiacos +4 - 1 unit (1.94)

Whenever those top Greek teams play we can expect play-off game type atmosphere. Eleven days ago Panathinaikos defeated Olympiacos in Greek Cup as small -2.5 fav. Now they're favored by a bigger margin. In 2014/2015 season Olympiacos won both games with Panathinaikos by 6 and 11 points. Overall Olympiacos is 4-1 SU in L5 with its biggest rival. Panathinaikos did some interesting signings but I think Olympiacos is still the better team with four players returning (including Vassilis Spanoulis and sharp shooter Lojeski). Line was pushed by a half point, which means home team has to win by at least 5. Olympiacos +4.

VTB: Saratov/Kuban Over 162.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Traditionally games between Avtodor and Lokomotiv tend to go over the total. In today's case total opened at 165 and was pushed down to 161, then bounce back and seems now stable at 162.5. Four points drop is kind of surprising as Saratov was 14-1 O/U last year in home games (that's 93%) and currently is playing the same brand of crazy up tempo basketball like they did in previous campaign. Lokomotiv players also like to shoot a lot. Last week they defeated Panathinaikos in Euroleague and dropped 81 points on them. 180 and 174 points - those are the totals from last season games between Avtodor and Lokomotiv. Recomended play: Over 162.5.
 
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Milano -4.5 - W
Olympiacos +4 - P
Saratov/Kuban Over 162.5 - L

Oct. 19: 1-1-1 (-0.10u)

Season YTD: 26-28-2 (-3.89u)

Eurocup: Bonn -2 - 1 unit (1.96)

In previous edition of Eurocup Bonn was eliminated after first round (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS). That team didn't care about Eurocup. They were focusing on Bundesliga instead (24-10 in regular season). This Eurocup season might be totally different for Bonn. After unlucky loss to Crailsheim in Week 1 of BBL Bonn won 4 straight games (3-1 ATS). Bonn is playing well right now, while Bilbao isn't. Spanish team is coming off a loss to Gran Canaria. Bonn is a tough place to play. Last season Bonn defeated other Spanish team - Zaragoza at home 90:88. Zaragoza and Bilbao are on similar talent scale, so a win today is not out of the reach for the home team. Bonn -2.

I just found this awesome player database for 2015/2016 season - might be worth looking at.
 
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Should have been fading Bonn like last year as once more they didn't show up.

Bonn -2 - L

Oct 20: 0-1 (-1.00u)

Season YTD:26-29-2 (-4.89u)

Baltic League: Rapla/Lietkabelis Under 151.5 - 1 unit (1.94)

Baltic basketball league is probably the only European pro league with some games played back-to-back. For bettors - like in NBA case - it's an easy way of making money. Lietkabelis played yesterday and won against Talinna Kalev. Lietkabelis is 0-2 O/U up to date in Baltic League. There's no H2H record for those teams, as last season they played in different groups. But it is safe to say that Rapla isn't particularly good at scoring (Rapla scored 59 points vs Valmiera in week 1) and Lietkabelis players may be a little tired today. Total already dropped by one point from 152.5. Rapla/Lietkabelis Under 151.5

Eurocup: Charleroi/Ulm Over 156.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

Both Charleroi and Ulm can score - Ulm scored 87 vs Venezia in EuroCup and twice more than 90 points in German BBL (vs Crailsheim and Hagen). Charleroi looked good in their EuroCup debut and in Ethias League (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS). I'm expecting a solid performance from the home side. Charleroi/Ulm Over 156.5.

Eurocup: Gran Canaria/Ludwigsburg Under 156.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Gran Canaria is one of the toughtest venues to play in Europe. Away teams are strugglig with home side 'grind' type of defense. I'm not expecting to see many uncontested, easy shots in this game. Early results are indicating that Ludwigsburg is going to have an awesome season in German league but they are inexperienced in international competitions. Gran Canaria/Ludwigsburg Under 156.5.
 
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Rapla/Lietkabelis - L
Charleroi/Ulm - w
Gran Canaria/Ludwigsburg - L

Oct. 21st: 1-2 (-1.07u)

Season YTD: 27-31-2 (-5.96u)

Euroleague: Cedevita Zagreb -5.5 - 1 unit (1.91)

Cedvita played 7 games in the last 16 days but after two consecutive losses and short rest the home team is expected to bounce back strongly. Velijko Mrsic told media that recently his players worked on ball movement and defense. Limoges will have Culpepper back in the lineup. In previous Euroleague season Cedevita has won with Limoges at home 102:83 and covered as -4.5 favorite. Cedevita -5.5.

Euroleague: Pinar Karsiyaka +7 - 1 unit (1.91)

Pinar is exceding expectations. After defeating Barcelona in week 1 of Euroleague and Turk Telekom in TBL on Saturday, they are heading to Athens. Pinar is on 5 day rest, while Panathinaikos is on 3 day rest after a tough game against Olympiacos. That may be a little too much for the Greek team as Pinar is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games. Pinar should be a live dog in this matchup. Pinar +7.

Euroleague: Anadolu Efes -6.5 - 1 unit (1.91)

It seems majority of the bettors are on the Milan side pushing the line from -7 to -6.5 but the contrarian approach might be a better choice. Milan has good offense but commits too many turnovers and it's defense is very mediocre (DRtg of 109.2 vs Trento, 92.9 vs Varese, 101.5 vs Vitoria). This kind of effort won't be sufficient against a team like Efes playing at home. Only exceptional shooting could help Milan to survive. I'm expecting Efes to cover. Efes -6.5
 
Zagreb -5.5 - L
Pinar +7 - L
Efes -6.5 - W

Oct.22nd: 1-2 (-1.09u)
Season YTD: 28-33-2 (-7.05u)

ABA: Tajfun/Mega Vizura Under 148.5 - 1 unit (1.95)

Tajfun is 1-5 O/U in all games played in Adriatic League and 0-2 O/U at home, as an underdog they are also an under team (1-3 O/U). Mega Vizura is 2-4 O/U and 1-2 O/U in away games. Tajfun is a scrappy team and is having trouble scoring (67, 61, 66 points in last three games). Both teams have some very tall players with above average wingspan (avg high at 201cm / 6'7''). Tajfun/Mega Under 148.5.

Euroleague: Strasbourg +8 - 1 unit (1.99)

Strasbourg is in the role of an underdog at home. Last season in EuroCup Strasburg was 3-7 ATS at home but mostly as a favorite (1-1 ATS as a dog). For the home team a win today is vital as they want to avoid 0-2 start in the Euroleague. After spending big $ on free agents in the off-season Fenerbahce will appear as the big public favorite in many Euroleague games this year. Turkish powerhouse is winning but not covering yet, they're 0-2-1 ATS after first three games. Strasbourg +8.

Euroleague: Bamberg/Darussafaka Over 143.5 - 1 unit (1.96)

Both teams are playing very well on defense. Bamberg is 1-3 O/U in BBL, Darussafaka is 0-2 O/U in TBL. Usually totals posted for those teams are somewhere in the range of 150-160 points, so 143.5 is a really small number. During last season the lowest total for Bamberg game was 144.5 vs Strasbourg. Brose likes to push the tempo up and score as efficiently as possible. Brose have 123.0 ORtg and .631 eFG% in BBL. Seven players on this team have PER rating above 19.0 with Wanamaker and Strielnieks at 28. Istanbul has enough deep and talented roster to keep up offensively with the home team. Over 143.5.
 
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Much needed sweep.

Tajfun/Mega Vizura U148.5 - W
Strasbourg +8 - W
Bamberg/Darussafaka O143.5 - W

Oct. 23rd: 3-0 (+2.90u)

Season YTD: 31-33-2 (-4.15u)
 
Today I'm going to fade tired and struggling teams. Let's see if it makes any sense.

A1: AEK Athens/Trikala Under 152.5 - 1 unit (1.93)

AEK games with Trikala are usually high scoring affairs, but in Greek league AEK is not playing up to its potential. They scored only 70 points vs newcomers from Lavrio and won that game by 5. Both AEK's games in Greek A1 felt under the total. AEK is on short, 2-day rest after lost road game vs Galatasaray in Eurocup. AEK is 0-2 O/U after a lost game this season. Trikala is also an under type of team (0-2 O/U), lacking offensive firepower (64 points scored vs weak Koroivos, 64 points vs new team in A1 - Kavala). Under 152.5.

ProA: Lyon-Villeurbanne -2 - 1 unit (1.92)

Nancy had lost six games in Pro A and in Eurocup combined. They are 0-4 ATS in French league, playing from the beginning some horrible defense. Nancy has posted DRtg of 121.4 vs Orleans, 110.9 vs Gravelines and 150.9 vs Chalon. They can't defend pick-and-rolls, opposing teams abuse them mercilessly on dribble as Nancy veterans look too slow-footed. Nancy is on short 2-day rest after mid-week game vs Venezia, while Lyon was not playing for 7 days and will be aggressively looking for it's fourth win. Lyon is 3-1 SU/ATS and 2-0 ATS in away games as favorite. Lyon-Villeurbanne -2.

Still looking on board for third play...
 
Adding two plays:

BBL: Gottingen Team Total Under 75.5 - 1 unit (1.89)
BBL: Frankfurt -2.5 - 1 unit (1.91).

Gottingen is struggling offensively. They scored 56 points at Tubingen, 63 vs Alba Berlin, 99 at Mitteldeutscher (bad def. team) and 63 vs Brose Bamberg. Frankfurt is one of the most defensively disciplined teams not only in Bundesliga but in Europe. Gottingen failed to generate more than 70 possessions in 3 of 4 games they have played. They are dead last in German league in DRtg (131.9) and 16th in ORtg (103.5). Gottingen is also one of the smallest teams in Germany at 195.4cm (6'5''). They will have problems scoring against well organized Fraport team that is currently 3-1 ATS (2-0 ATS away). Gottingen TT Under 75.5 and Fraport to cover as small road fav.
 
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Another sweep, bigger than yesterday's. I forgot to mention that like any other bettor I can go on cold/hot streak. I hope nobody was fading me today.
Already looking at tomorrow's board - I should have at least 3 picks.

AEK/Trikala U152.5 - W
Lyon -2 - W
Frankfurt -2.5 - W
Gottingen U75.5 - W

Oct. 24th: 4-0 (+3.65u)

Season YTD: 35-33-2 (-0.50u)
 
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