Euro Quarterfinals Discussion

[GWarner27]

Why not start a thread for this?

I'm considering Italy, Iceland and Wales currently. My strategy in this sport is to take -110 or better spreads on these games with underdogs who ultimately can draw and cash.

Any predictions on line moves or feelings on these or any other games will be appreciated as waiting on Wales vs ENG ended up costing me a half-unit as I opted for +0.75 instead of +1. Would prefer for that not to happen again

Just haven't been very impressed by Germany, France or Belgium

 

[BetCrimes1984]

IMO France@home will be too much for Iceland. But I like the dogs in the other 3 affairs: I believe at least 2 of them will qualify for the semis.

 

[GWarner27]

GER never beating ITA in a competitive match is an interesting stat if you're into those sorts of things

 

[dylanphan]

Just haven't been very impressed by Germany

wtf
They have the highest pass completion rate, the highest possession rate, have scored the most goals, created the third most chances, have not conceded a goal yet.
What more can they do to impress you?
Or rather, what team exactly has been more impressive to you?

I'm not saying Germany has this tournament in the bag, not by a long shot, as in a single game knockout anything can happen....but the Germans pretty much dominate every match they play in. They have the ball almost 2/3's of the match, get plenty of opportunities per game, and allow less than 2-3 quality scoring chances to their opposition. This has been consistent, not just in this tournament, but throughout qualifying.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

GER never beating ITA in a competitive match is an interesting stat if you're into those sorts of things

Spain was 0-5 wearing white in a knockout match before playing Italy.

 

[KJ]

Best two teams in this tournament I've seen are Germans and Italians, should be great

Poland (against Porta) and Wales to advance are intriguing.

Might go small on the draw in Paris but that's gonna be so much a different animal for Iceland than the England match was.

 

[braves]

I think Portugal have stunk most of the tournament ( just what my eyes have told me, though stats could show differently). They stunk in the WC in 2014 as well. I like Poland, but could see Portugal pulling this out.

I do understand to a degree with what G-Warner is saying. I think people just expect Belgium, Germany, and France to just roll through teams. It never works that way, and sometimes it does take a couple of games for these teams to get in a "groove". Superior talent gets them results where they aren't playing their best (group stages), but I think Belgium, France, and Germany are all rounding into good form.

I just can't see Iceland winning his game, I think France will find it difficult to break them down, but Im confident they will

Italy/Germany tough one to call, Ill say pks with Italy prevailing

Wales/Belgium...Ill call Wales in the upset

Portugal/Poland- Portugal wins 2-0

 

[braves]

If Iceland beat France, Id say it would be the greatest run in a major tournament behind Greece in 04 ( S. Korea hosted WC2002,and got some major home cooking by the refs, Cameroon had a ridiculous run in 1990, but eventually fell to England). There may be some other ones way before my time, but Iceland getting to the semis by beating a tournament favorite and host would be incredible.

 

[captjohn67]

Played Poland to advance, and parlayed Germany and Belgium together to advance. GLTA

 

[BetCrimes1984]

If Iceland beat France, Id say it would be the greatest run in a major tournament behind Greece in 04 ( S. Korea hosted WC2002,and got some major home cooking by the refs, Cameroon had a ridiculous run in 1990, but eventually fell to England). There may be some other ones way before my time, but Iceland getting to the semis by beating a tournament favorite and host would be incredible.

Bulgaria's run at USA 1994 behind Hristo Stoichkov was a fabulous effort, esp. in knocking out the Germans after being down 1-0 in the 2nd half...

[video=youtube;I2MCLXaVH_E]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2MCLXaVH_E[/video]

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Some relevant stats from the service plays section which some might not have seen...

Poland vs. Portugal

• This will be Poland and Portugal's third encounter at a major tournament, their first in the European Championships. They have so far won one each: 1-0 to Poland at the 1986 World Cup and 4-0 to Portugal at the 2002 World Cup.
• Poland are unbeaten in their last three head-to-heads with Portugal (W1 D2).
• None of Poland's 10 games @the Euro's has produced more than two goals (scored and conceded).
• Poland are in fact the lowest scoring side among those to have made it to the quarter-finals (3 goals in 4 games).
• Poland has only conceded one goal so far in four games.
• Portugal are unbeaten in their 11 competitive fixtures under Fernando Santos (W8, D3), all eight of their wins in that run being decided by a single goal (including extra time win against Croatia).

Wales vs Belgium

• Wales were unbeaten against Belgium in their Euro 2016 qualifiers, with Chris Coleman's men winning 1-0 in Cardiff after a goalless draw in Brussels.
• Wales and Belgium's last three encounters have produced only three goals.
• Wales have lost only two of their nine games at major tournaments, both by a one-goal difference: against Brazil in 1958 (0-1) and England in 2016 (1-2).
• Wales only had one shot on target in their last game against Northern Ireland, it was from a Gareth Bale free-kick.
• Injury time included, Wales have trailed for only 2 minutes and 31 seconds in total over their first four games at Euro 2016.
• All three goals conceded by Wales at Euro 2016 have come from the 56th minute onwards.
• Wales have kept two consecutive clean sheets for the first time in their major tournament history.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

the fact that Iceland only has a population of around 330,000 and is able to compete against other football mad countries is pretty darn impressive.

 

[nbafan88]

from what i saw i think england had a lot more to do with that last match outcome than iceland did.... i think france rolls

 

[GWarner27]

wtf
They have the highest pass completion rate, the highest possession rate, have scored the most goals, created the third most chances, have not conceded a goal yet.
What more can they do to impress you?
Or rather, what team exactly has been more impressive to you?

I'm not saying Germany has this tournament in the bag, not by a long shot, as in a single game knockout anything can happen....but the Germans pretty much dominate every match they play in. They have the ball almost 2/3's of the match, get plenty of opportunities per game, and allow less than 2-3 quality scoring chances to their opposition. This has been consistent, not just in this tournament, but throughout qualifying.

didn't see them crush Slovakia and realize McGovern was incredible in the match keeping Northern Ireland in it, but with all the talent GER has I just figured they'd be much more dominant in this tournament.

I'm not a huge follower of the sport so I could be blind, but I have read many complaints about their striker position and don't think they are the same team without Lahm both offensively and defensively. Neuer is incredible, but I'm very interested in a play where a draw wins or at least half-wins and pushes the remainder.

Obviously I'd be buying Italy at their highest point, but I feel like they've been the most impressive team in the tournament so far and I'm not convinced the GER offensive production issues gets fixed against a guy like Buffon

Some relevant stats from the service plays section which some might not have seen...

all of that seems to suggest a 1H under

from what i saw i think england had a lot more to do with that last match outcome than iceland did.... i think france rolls

agree that England looked horrible in the tournament and still feel like I got raped on the Wales +0.75 bet I had against them with two cheap goals including the 93rd minute disaster, but I expected more from France. They seem like a team that was made the favorite because of the talented individuals they have (like Belgium) and in their case got extremely overpriced/rated because of where the tournament is played. Don't obviously want to fight the home crowd or the ref, but I feel like the ref has to be aware that he can't show too much bias if he wants to keep getting big jobs and moving along in the tournament/UEFA/FIFA. All this and they're playing a TEAM who can push if they lose by a goal

 

[aplous]

I've watched about half of Wales action so far and am not very impressed. It took a 75' own goal for them
to beat maybe the worst team in the tournament a few days ago. Belgy should dominate possession and even though these games have been ugly and low scoring I'd be shocked if they don't win. Chalk today.....mutts in the next 2. Portugal/Belgium feels right in the semis.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

It took a 75' own goal for them to beat maybe the worst team in the tournament a few days ago. Belgy should dominate possession

In these two observations you have, funnily enough, summed up why Wales are a chance. The team they struggled to beat employed a version of play that mirrored their own: that being a preference to absorb play and then hit on the counter-attack. Wales isn't built to take the bulls by the horn, thus they struggled. Belgium, by dint of the expectation that they'll dominate possession, give Wales what it wants to see in an opponent: someone coming at them, leaving space in behind. Now figure in the pathetic Belgian offense (how they failed to put 6 on Hungary before the 2 cheapies they managed right at the end I'm still struggling to understand, but what it says about their efficiency on offense does nothing to quell any belief in Wales) vs. a Welsh defense that can hardly be called unimpressive, and we'll have a match. My expectation is this will be 1-0 either way or 1-1. A dour match for the first 60, heating up only late.

 

[aplous]

Yup....0-0 wouldn't surprise me a bit. Probably worth an exact score prop try.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

For those who won't visit the thread these stats were originally posted in...

Germany v Italy Saturday (2000 BST)

Opta facts:

• Germany have never beaten Italy at a major tournament (D4 L4). Worse still, they have lost all four of their games against Italy in the knockout stages: three times at the World Cup (semi-final in 1970, final in 1982, semi-final in 2006) and once at the European Championships (semi-final in 2012).
• 15 of the 18 goals scored in Germany and Italy's previous eight encounters at major tournaments have come after half-time, including seven in extra-time (39%).
• Germany have won 14 of their last 17 games at major tournaments, drawing two and losing one (1-2 v Italy in the Euro 2012 semi-finals).
• Germany are the only team yet to concede a single goal so far at Euro 2016. The only previous time they kept clean sheets in their first four games at a major tournament was in the 1978 World Cup.
• In major tournaments (WC & EC), Germany haven't conceded a goal in the last 480 minutes. The last player to score past Manuel Neuer was Oscar in the 2014 World Cup semi-final.
• Germany have averaged 69% possession over their first four games, the highest ratio so far at Euro 2016.
• Italy has only conceded one goal at Euro 2016.